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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


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If he keeps saying its gonna get cold and stormy every week,like he has all winter,he's more than likely going to be right atleast once!

On topic,the GFS showing the suppressed solution is a very good thing,at this point.that would mean there is cold already there,causing the suppression!

JB says today that begining Feb 14 winter will go out strong. He says snow for MOST all of the country and that includes areas that he says people complain that he is not interested in, like the SE.

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Just have two separate threads.

 

Some folks only look at days 1-5 or so,a short/medium range.

Some folks like to speculate and look further ahead 6 or so days out,long range.

 

It's not that hard.

 

Why is it?  We already have a "February Pattern and Discussion," "February Obs," and "February Banter," does the SE really need another thread to discuss sensible weather in the foreseeable t-step?  I think not, keep the crap on topic, try to tailor it to the respectable thread, hell, even I have been confused determining what to post where, just goes to show us how we can post the same things in multiple places, which is not good.  Please clarify with the topic discussion notes under the thread header, thanks!

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Has someone hijacked your account! It's not like you to be so...."optimistic" :-)

The SOI going super negative is really nice, I am hoping it can stay negative for an extended period. Watch, it will probably rise tomorrow morning.

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Has someone hijacked your account! It's not like you to be so...."optimistic" :-)

The SOI going super negative is really nice, I am hoping it can stay negative for an extended period. Watch, it will probably rise tomorrow morning.

I thought it tanked? Im mobile but check the cmc ensembles as they have a strong signal for a storm as well.
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Why is it?  We already have a "February Pattern and Discussion," "February Obs," and "February Banter," does the SE really need another thread to discuss sensible weather in the foreseeable t-step?  I think not, keep the crap on topic, try to tailor it to the respectable thread, hell, even I have been confused determining what to post where, just goes to show us how we can post the same things in multiple places, which is not good.  Please clarify with the topic discussion notes under the thread header, thanks!

I like the super threads better.  Easier to weed thru the crap, and easier for the mods to get to it before I do :)

  I like the disorganized moisture moving across the south, and the disorganized cold moving around the north.  If they can organize at the same time, before too much time passes, then winter might be coming.  I'm most impressed Goofy has that 0 line in Fla. once again.  That's been missing for years, and used to be a staple.  T

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From what I can tell, Winter is just about done for us here in the SE.  As Delta has said many times, the Pacific has demolished every hope we had, and the Euro has enough credibility to be correct with it's warmer forecast.  When you don't see many long-range fantasy storms on the GFS, you're in a bad situation.  A good many of us are also going to finish the season above normal all around if the current trends keep up.  Here in CAE, a few places got into the teens once, maybe twice if you include colder areas this year so far.  That's not good at all. 

 

I originally thought I'd throw in the towel after Mid Feb and no sign, but it's currently a non-wintry setup through the rest of the month for us here in SC who's climo screams Feb.

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I was over on a friends property who has a lot of pasture with plenty of sun, and buds are out on all her trees.  I was astonished.  It looked like late March/early April over there.  That to me is a sure sign of a major impending squashing.  That kind of hubris always gets swatted down.  I think Larry's climo is in full display soon :)  T

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KGSP Morning AFD on next weekend:

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE NAMELY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH

NEXT WEEKEND HAS BEEN CHANGEABLE FROM MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT. TWO

DAYS AGO...THERE WAS A DRIER TREND FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND NOW THE

TREND HAS REVERSED TOWARD A WETTER OUTCOME. THE 00Z AND 12Z SUNDAY

ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN THE FIRST TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS FORMING A LOW IN

THE GULF AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS NOW TRENDING

TOWARD WETTER AS WELL. THE NEWEST ECMWF HAS AN EVEN DEEPER LOW TO

FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MISS VALLEY

AND THEN EAST. THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...BUT AS SAID

BEFORE THE GFS IS TRENDING WETTER AND FEEL MORE CONFIDENT FOR

INCREASING POPS IN THE EARLY FRIDAY TIME.

THE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND CONTROLS WEATHER FOR THE EAST STATES IN

TRANSITION. EXPECT A COOLING NORTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY AND BOTH GFS

AND ECMWF DIVE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH FROM NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY TO

NEAR BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY. BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ASSIST IN

SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR OUR MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY

NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSING THE MISS VALLEY.

TYPICAL CAD HIGH BRINGS HIGHS ON THURSDAY A CATEGORY COOLER THAN

NORMAL...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY WITH PASSING LOW PRESSURE...THEN

AT OR BELOW NORMAL AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

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It's really sad that the highlight of this winter here is a low of 21 and a very light glaze of freezing rain...into early feb. Sigh.

 

It's not been a bad winter on the other hand ironically for far north Ga/mountains and MS (ms has had a good winter in fact given they have no elevation). Maybe those who live there can correct me but aside from rather miner events, western nc hasn't had a good winter either. No big winter storms that i recall and no big upslope events that I recall either. 

 

Long range..sigh again. But I'm not too unhappy about the warming in southeast canada...it's been cold there for a lot of the winter and it hasn't helped us at all. The trough alignment (NW to SE) constantly gives us brief cool downs then warm ups, no chance of any winter storms, etc. I keep wanting to see a westward shift in the cold air to the west up there because frankly it can't get much worse.

 

Unless late feb and early/mid march is good...another winter of crap. Only good news about it is the good rains...god knows we need it here to get the water table up some.

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Speaking of Rains, looks like more precip is inbound latter tonight, just peeking at radar. Maybe the mountains can cash in again. I just posted over in another thread the Sugar Mtn racked up 20 inches this weekend.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southeast-region/weather-radar?play=1

 

That's amazing.

 

06z gfs and 0z euro is showing some very good rains over the next 10 days or so, essentially centered over north ga. Already had some flooding the last time (1.50 inches here but it fell apart as it moved east where as several inches fell to the west/northwest), so looks like more is on the way. However, it should be noted the 0z gfs and 12z were not as bullish.

 

 

Odd to be talking about flooding when we were so dry for so long. With Lake levels, creek levels, water table levels, etc being so low..we need all we can get.

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I was over on a friends property who has a lot of pasture with plenty of sun, and buds are out on all her trees. I was astonished. It looked like late March/early April over there. That to me is a sure sign of a major impending squashing. That kind of hubris always gets swatted down. I think Larry's climo is in full display soon :) T

Folks,

As of now, based on the Euro as well as the idea that the GFS is rushing sig. cold too much as has often been the case this winter, things are still looking on track for a mostly mild early to mid Feb. in Atlanta and much of the SE US. Notice how the cold shown on GFS runs has continued to get delayed. So, once again, we're getting a bit of a mirage effect. KATL is now looking to have a decent shot at another 50ish month, which is actually

favored by the analogs.

Though counterintuitive, this is actually encouraging to me because I've been saying that the warm Dec.-Jan. analogs would favor a mostly mild Feb. These same analogs say there is a greater than normal chance for a chilly early to mid March that could start as early as late Feb. Also, there's a decent shot for the rare feat of March ending up the coldest of the entire winter at a good number of SE stations. For KATL, this occurred in 1960, 1932, and 1890. The last time KATL had a colder than 50 F March was way back in 1971, when there was a 3/25 major ZR of all things!

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Sooooo....how deep was the sleet in those analog years?  I'm betting I got at least one major thumping down here, lol.  I know 60 started a nice cold decade.  I remember walking home from school with it down around 5 or 6, which ain't bad for 4 in the afternoon.   'Course we were tough back in those days.  No mommy dropping you off at the door stuff, you had to walk the mile back and forth even though the snow drifts...we'll we would have had there been any snow drifts.  Ok, well, we'd have been out of school....but we were still tough back in those days, lol. 

 Well, the 6 lost the 0 line in Fla.  Hope the 12 finds it again.  It's at least a glimmer of hope :) T

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Sooooo....how deep was the sleet in those analog years?  I'm betting I got at least one major thumping down here, lol.  I know 60 started a nice cold decade.  I remember walking home from school with it down around 5 or 6, which ain't bad for 4 in the afternoon.   'Course we were tough back in those days.  No mommy dropping you off at the door stuff, you had to walk the mile back and forth even though the snow drifts...we'll we would have had there been any snow drifts.  Ok, well, we'd have been out of school....but we were still tough back in those days, lol. 

 Well, the 6 lost the 0 line in Fla.  Hope the 12 finds it again.  It's at least a glimmer of hope :) T

 

I'm not aware of any IP storms in Atlanta during those years, but there was a some wintry mix on 3/6-7 in 1890. Actually, there was some wintry precip. in all of these March's.

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I'm not aware of any IP storms in Atlanta during those years, but there was a some wintry mix on 3/6-7 in 1890. Actually, there was some wintry precip. in all of these March's.

 

Larry,

It will be interesting to see if you are correct with the assertion that the cold holds off until the end of the month.  I have noticed the cold being delayed on the GFS a bit. (others have said it has been doing this a lot)  I still feel good about cold, maybe not from the 10th as I had initially thought, but toward the 15th.  Any additional delays on the modeling would mean you have a pretty good shot at verifying, but let's just let it play out.

As for the bolded part, maybe we could get JBurns to tell us about that winter??  :lmao:  j/k

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I'm not aware of any IP storms in Atlanta during those years, but there was a some wintry mix on 3/6-7 in 1890. Actually, there was some wintry precip. in all of these March's.

Now we're talking!!  Of course it will be hard to pull off now that "winter's over", lol. Oh, well, at least some of us may find solice before the long decent into summer misery.  Thanks, Dr. Larry, you're feel good medicine still works for the climo believers.  T

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