mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 If he keeps saying its gonna get cold and stormy every week,like he has all winter,he's more than likely going to be right atleast once! On topic,the GFS showing the suppressed solution is a very good thing,at this point.that would mean there is cold already there,causing the suppression! JB says today that begining Feb 14 winter will go out strong. He says snow for MOST all of the country and that includes areas that he says people complain that he is not interested in, like the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Wintry mix possible for the northern mountains of NC Monday night into Tuesday...Winter Storm Watches hoisted for VA/WV mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 If we get a big warm up like the Euro esms are showing in SE Can in mid Feb you should throw a fork in this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 EPS control run does not look good at all for Valentine's day and just shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Just have two separate threads. Some folks only look at days 1-5 or so,a short/medium range. Some folks like to speculate and look further ahead 6 or so days out,long range. It's not that hard. Why is it? We already have a "February Pattern and Discussion," "February Obs," and "February Banter," does the SE really need another thread to discuss sensible weather in the foreseeable t-step? I think not, keep the crap on topic, try to tailor it to the respectable thread, hell, even I have been confused determining what to post where, just goes to show us how we can post the same things in multiple places, which is not good. Please clarify with the topic discussion notes under the thread header, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 If we get a big warm up like the Euro esms are showing in SE Can in mid Feb you should throw a fork in this winter Or some caving into central Canada then winter will be back on, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12th-14th may be sacrificial for a big dog 3-4 days later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12th-14th may be sacrificial for a big dog 3-4 days later... Certainly could be the case. Hard to deny the fact that the Euro (EPS) and GFS have been stuck on showing such a good solution for that time frame. Hopefully today's run of the EPS and 18z GFS was just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Certainly could be the case. Hard to deny the fact that the Euro (EPS) and GFS have been stuck on showing such a good solution for that time frame. Hopefully today's run of the EPS and 18z GFS was just a hiccup. 12z GFS ens @ 252, yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The gfs ensembles have had a strong signal for a storm during this timeframe for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z GFS ens @ 252, yep. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=87530]12z252hr.JPG[/url] Has someone hijacked your account! It's not like you to be so...."optimistic" :-) The SOI going super negative is really nice, I am hoping it can stay negative for an extended period. Watch, it will probably rise tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The gfs ensembles have had a strong signal for a storm during this timeframe for a few days now. Don't look now but the AO is now forecasted to tank in the coming days. The NAO and PNA look to remian fairly flat at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Has someone hijacked your account! It's not like you to be so...."optimistic" :-) The SOI going super negative is really nice, I am hoping it can stay negative for an extended period. Watch, it will probably rise tomorrow morning. I thought it tanked? Im mobile but check the cmc ensembles as they have a strong signal for a storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Don't look now but the AO is now forecasted to tank in the coming days. The NAO and PNA look to remian fairly flat at the moment.just for fun look at the 18z ensembles 384 map. Talk about a near perfect snow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Why is it? We already have a "February Pattern and Discussion," "February Obs," and "February Banter," does the SE really need another thread to discuss sensible weather in the foreseeable t-step? I think not, keep the crap on topic, try to tailor it to the respectable thread, hell, even I have been confused determining what to post where, just goes to show us how we can post the same things in multiple places, which is not good. Please clarify with the topic discussion notes under the thread header, thanks! I like the super threads better. Easier to weed thru the crap, and easier for the mods to get to it before I do I like the disorganized moisture moving across the south, and the disorganized cold moving around the north. If they can organize at the same time, before too much time passes, then winter might be coming. I'm most impressed Goofy has that 0 line in Fla. once again. That's been missing for years, and used to be a staple. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Or some caving into central Canada then winter will be back on, right? Going by the Pro map from the esms members but none the less its ugly.The time you show its +10 from al/.tn line through NC/SC line,ugly look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 From what I can tell, Winter is just about done for us here in the SE. As Delta has said many times, the Pacific has demolished every hope we had, and the Euro has enough credibility to be correct with it's warmer forecast. When you don't see many long-range fantasy storms on the GFS, you're in a bad situation. A good many of us are also going to finish the season above normal all around if the current trends keep up. Here in CAE, a few places got into the teens once, maybe twice if you include colder areas this year so far. That's not good at all. I originally thought I'd throw in the towel after Mid Feb and no sign, but it's currently a non-wintry setup through the rest of the month for us here in SC who's climo screams Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The 0z GFS ensemble mean still has the gulf low. It goes OTS and appears to be a pretty solid look (at least as far as the track goes) for much of the Southeast. The op GFS took the low inland up the I-85 corridor, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I was over on a friends property who has a lot of pasture with plenty of sun, and buds are out on all her trees. I was astonished. It looked like late March/early April over there. That to me is a sure sign of a major impending squashing. That kind of hubris always gets swatted down. I think Larry's climo is in full display soon T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 KGSP Morning AFD on next weekend: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE NAMELY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND HAS BEEN CHANGEABLE FROM MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT. TWO DAYS AGO...THERE WAS A DRIER TREND FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND NOW THE TREND HAS REVERSED TOWARD A WETTER OUTCOME. THE 00Z AND 12Z SUNDAY ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN THE FIRST TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS FORMING A LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS NOW TRENDING TOWARD WETTER AS WELL. THE NEWEST ECMWF HAS AN EVEN DEEPER LOW TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MISS VALLEY AND THEN EAST. THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...BUT AS SAID BEFORE THE GFS IS TRENDING WETTER AND FEEL MORE CONFIDENT FOR INCREASING POPS IN THE EARLY FRIDAY TIME. THE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND CONTROLS WEATHER FOR THE EAST STATES IN TRANSITION. EXPECT A COOLING NORTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY AND BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DIVE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH FROM NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY TO NEAR BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY. BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ASSIST IN SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR OUR MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSING THE MISS VALLEY. TYPICAL CAD HIGH BRINGS HIGHS ON THURSDAY A CATEGORY COOLER THAN NORMAL...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY WITH PASSING LOW PRESSURE...THEN AT OR BELOW NORMAL AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It's really sad that the highlight of this winter here is a low of 21 and a very light glaze of freezing rain...into early feb. Sigh. It's not been a bad winter on the other hand ironically for far north Ga/mountains and MS (ms has had a good winter in fact given they have no elevation). Maybe those who live there can correct me but aside from rather miner events, western nc hasn't had a good winter either. No big winter storms that i recall and no big upslope events that I recall either. Long range..sigh again. But I'm not too unhappy about the warming in southeast canada...it's been cold there for a lot of the winter and it hasn't helped us at all. The trough alignment (NW to SE) constantly gives us brief cool downs then warm ups, no chance of any winter storms, etc. I keep wanting to see a westward shift in the cold air to the west up there because frankly it can't get much worse. Unless late feb and early/mid march is good...another winter of crap. Only good news about it is the good rains...god knows we need it here to get the water table up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Speaking of Rains, looks like more precip is inbound latter tonight, just peeking at radar. Maybe the mountains can cash in again. I just posted over in another thread the Sugar Mtn racked up 20 inches this weekend. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southeast-region/weather-radar?play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Looks like the 0z GFS ensemble tries to pop a -nao in the extended range and so does the GGEM ensemble, we have seen this before but hopefully this time it will hold in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Speaking of Rains, looks like more precip is inbound latter tonight, just peeking at radar. Maybe the mountains can cash in again. I just posted over in another thread the Sugar Mtn racked up 20 inches this weekend. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southeast-region/weather-radar?play=1 That's amazing. 06z gfs and 0z euro is showing some very good rains over the next 10 days or so, essentially centered over north ga. Already had some flooding the last time (1.50 inches here but it fell apart as it moved east where as several inches fell to the west/northwest), so looks like more is on the way. However, it should be noted the 0z gfs and 12z were not as bullish. Odd to be talking about flooding when we were so dry for so long. With Lake levels, creek levels, water table levels, etc being so low..we need all we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I was over on a friends property who has a lot of pasture with plenty of sun, and buds are out on all her trees. I was astonished. It looked like late March/early April over there. That to me is a sure sign of a major impending squashing. That kind of hubris always gets swatted down. I think Larry's climo is in full display soon T Folks, As of now, based on the Euro as well as the idea that the GFS is rushing sig. cold too much as has often been the case this winter, things are still looking on track for a mostly mild early to mid Feb. in Atlanta and much of the SE US. Notice how the cold shown on GFS runs has continued to get delayed. So, once again, we're getting a bit of a mirage effect. KATL is now looking to have a decent shot at another 50ish month, which is actually favored by the analogs. Though counterintuitive, this is actually encouraging to me because I've been saying that the warm Dec.-Jan. analogs would favor a mostly mild Feb. These same analogs say there is a greater than normal chance for a chilly early to mid March that could start as early as late Feb. Also, there's a decent shot for the rare feat of March ending up the coldest of the entire winter at a good number of SE stations. For KATL, this occurred in 1960, 1932, and 1890. The last time KATL had a colder than 50 F March was way back in 1971, when there was a 3/25 major ZR of all things! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Sooooo....how deep was the sleet in those analog years? I'm betting I got at least one major thumping down here, lol. I know 60 started a nice cold decade. I remember walking home from school with it down around 5 or 6, which ain't bad for 4 in the afternoon. 'Course we were tough back in those days. No mommy dropping you off at the door stuff, you had to walk the mile back and forth even though the snow drifts...we'll we would have had there been any snow drifts. Ok, well, we'd have been out of school....but we were still tough back in those days, lol. Well, the 6 lost the 0 line in Fla. Hope the 12 finds it again. It's at least a glimmer of hope T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Sooooo....how deep was the sleet in those analog years? I'm betting I got at least one major thumping down here, lol. I know 60 started a nice cold decade. I remember walking home from school with it down around 5 or 6, which ain't bad for 4 in the afternoon. 'Course we were tough back in those days. No mommy dropping you off at the door stuff, you had to walk the mile back and forth even though the snow drifts...we'll we would have had there been any snow drifts. Ok, well, we'd have been out of school....but we were still tough back in those days, lol. Well, the 6 lost the 0 line in Fla. Hope the 12 finds it again. It's at least a glimmer of hope T I'm not aware of any IP storms in Atlanta during those years, but there was a some wintry mix on 3/6-7 in 1890. Actually, there was some wintry precip. in all of these March's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm not aware of any IP storms in Atlanta during those years, but there was a some wintry mix on 3/6-7 in 1890. Actually, there was some wintry precip. in all of these March's. Larry, It will be interesting to see if you are correct with the assertion that the cold holds off until the end of the month. I have noticed the cold being delayed on the GFS a bit. (others have said it has been doing this a lot) I still feel good about cold, maybe not from the 10th as I had initially thought, but toward the 15th. Any additional delays on the modeling would mean you have a pretty good shot at verifying, but let's just let it play out. As for the bolded part, maybe we could get JBurns to tell us about that winter?? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm not aware of any IP storms in Atlanta during those years, but there was a some wintry mix on 3/6-7 in 1890. Actually, there was some wintry precip. in all of these March's. Now we're talking!! Of course it will be hard to pull off now that "winter's over", lol. Oh, well, at least some of us may find solice before the long decent into summer misery. Thanks, Dr. Larry, you're feel good medicine still works for the climo believers. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Good write up by Robert on WxSouth.com today. It's free on the public forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.