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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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 More specifically, where can I get 12Z GGEM clown maps (specifically for the 9-10 day 12Z)? Maybe they don't exist? I tried looking at that site that was linked, but can't figure out how to generate a clown for days 9-10. Anyone know?

 

I misread what you wanted. :arrowhead:  You wanted snow maps.  Sorry.

 

I think I figured it out just now.  Go here:  http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na〈=fr

 

And choose GEM-GLB at the top.  Then, you can choose the cycle below (I think it defaults to the most recent run).  Click the check box for Images for any of the items in the list on the left.  Try "Precipitation".  Then, down at the bottom, you can choose the hour.

 

Problem is, English is not the native language on this site. :)

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OK - French aside - back to topic --

 

I've been in a CLE all day and therefore am lost tonight on potential developments from today and this evening.

 

Models and discussion look less robust than yesterday. Am I missing something? Cold shot not as deep? Less prolonged? Less moisture?

 

All I can glean from a quick look is that the models seem to be trending warmer in the deep SE. Am I missing something?

 

Synopsis anyone (??) - and thanks ahead of time for any gratuitous brief summary (before crash time)!

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No clown, no fun . :( :(

 

 A model without clown maps is like a circus without a clown. Is is just not quite the same level of entertainment. :(

 

Wait, Larry, I did find the next best thing.  It's not in inches of snow, but rather the amount of QPF (in mm) that falls as snow.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&type=SN&hi=120&hf=240〈=en&map=na

 

Keep in mind that it's still snowing in NC, SC, and parts of GA at hr 240.

 

You can also select the amount of QPF that falls in IP or ZR.

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OK - French aside - back to topic --

 

I've been in a CLE all day and therefore am lost tonight on potential developments from today and this evening.

 

Models and discussion look less robust than yesterday. Am I missing something? Cold shot not as deep? Less prolonged? Less moisture?

 

All I can glean from a quick look is that the models seem t be trending warmer in the deep SE. Am I missing something?

 

Synopsis anyone - and thanks ahead of time (before crash time)!

 

Astute ob. Indeed, the Goofies have been trending toward ending their cold earlier for the SE. However, the Doctors have more or less maintained their durable cold and now look more impressive. So, long live the Doctor. The analogs favor Doc, regardless.

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OK - French aside - back to topic --

 

I've been in a CLE all day and therefore am lost tonight on potential developments from today and this evening.

 

Models and discussion look less robust than yesterday. Am I missing something? Cold shot not as deep? Less prolonged? Less moisture?

 

All I can glean from a quick look is that the models seem to be trending warmer in the deep SE. Am I missing something?

 

Synopsis anyone (??) - and thanks ahead of time for any gratuitous brief summary (before crash time)!

 

Only thing different as far as I can tell is there's no big storm showing up except on the GGEM.  Strong -NAO, +PNA, and energy in the flow.  Still looking good.  I think more people are focused on the non-event in the morning.

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Wait, Larry, I did find the next best thing.  It's not in inches of snow, but rather the amount of QPF (in mm) that falls as snow.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&type=SN&hi=120&hf=240〈=en&map=na

 

Keep in mind that it's still snowing in NC, SC, and parts of GA at hr 240.

 

You can also select the amount of QPF that falls in IP or ZR.

 

I get a centimeter of snow!

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The folks who have access to the commercial products likely are getting the update to 240, for us lesser ins, going to be several weeks/months before the changes propagate on a graphical scale down to us.

 

Wait, Larry, I did find the next best thing. It's not in inches of snow, but rather the amount of QPF (in mm) that falls as snow.

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&type=SN&hi=120&hf=240〈=en&map=na

Keep in mind that it's still snowing in NC, SC, and parts of GA at hr 240.

You can also select the amount of QPF that falls in IP or ZR.


That's the clown map, 25.4mm = ~ 1", stock 10:1 ratio, ATL is close to a foot, also between CLT and RDU. Deep south is digging out!

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I get a centimeter of snow!

 

If I understand it correctly, it is 1 cm of liquid (0.40") or ~4" of snow. Also, your snow isn't finished based on the location of the sfc low at 240 hours. I'd think you'd end up with a very nice ~7-8" or maybe a bit more. Maybe even Brick would be satifsfied but you never know. Also, please nobody tell Tony. this gives him 0.10 mm of liquid equiv. in the form of sleet....probably a dusting of sleet. We don't want him to get overly excited about a fantasy map.

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The folks who have access to the commercial products likely are getting the update to 240, for us lesser ins, going to be several weeks/months before the changes propagate on a graphical scale down to us.

 

That's the clown map, 25.4mm = ~ 1", stock 10:1 ratio, ATL is close to a foot, also between CLT and RDU. Deep south is digging out!

 

It makes me pretty jealous to realize there are people getting to see what has no chance in hell of occurring before i do.

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The folks who have access to the commercial products likely are getting the update to 240, for us lesser ins, going to be several weeks/months before the changes propagate on a graphical scale down to us.

 

That's the clown map, 25.4mm = ~ 1", stock 10:1 ratio, ATL is close to a foot, also between CLT and RDU. Deep south is digging out!

 

 I know I'm getting very technical about a 10 day fantasy. However, just for the very important record so we can verify this run accurately later, I see "only" (lol) ~22 mm or ~0.90" of liquid or ~9" of snow at KATL. However, even that would be the heaviest snow there since Jan. of 1940! We'd need ~30 mm of liquid for ~a foot of snow at a 10:1 ratio.

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 I know I'm getting very technical about a 10 day fantasy. However, just for the very important record so we can verify this run accurately later, I see "only" (lol) ~22 mm or ~0.90" of liquid or ~9" of snow at KATL. However, even that would be the heaviest snow there since Jan. of 1940! We'd need ~30 mm of liquid for ~a foot of snow at a 10:1 ratio.

Do you know when the last time Atlanta had a snowstorm of 6" or more ? I know it has been at least 20 years.

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It makes me pretty jealous to realize there are people getting to see what has no chance in hell of occurring before i do.

JBurns told us we weren't gonna get a Miller A thread vs the Larry SE Snowstorm Bonanza, tough call...

Best guess, and feel free to call it that, I am, hell it's the weather, around here wait a few hours and it will change, same with the models. We could see two distinct events out of upcoming cold pattern between 2/28 and 3/16. NA setup on the macro-scale is characterized by a strong west based -nao, peaking around 3/3, in tandem with the moderate ao, possibly enduring through the next 3 weeks. The pacific finally comes around beginning of March, there in lies our best shot in my opinion of a big dog. A lot will depend on where the storm cutting up the plains, mid west, takes up shop. If it retrogrades back in to the lakes no deal, if we can get it to lift in to N NE, it's game on. Period of 3/1-3/3 looks money should we get a classic 50/50 displaced into N ME/SE Canada, strong confidence there will be energy riding the base with teleconnections stating increased confidence for booster ignition & favorable se suppression, with initial development possibly in the gulf.

After that, and this is based purely on how these patterns usually evolve, a drier period sets in, up to 7 days, maybe a nuisance event, but with the NW-W flow, anything of substance gets squashed. In the transition back to milder air, 3/12-3/16, possibly another window, however, at this time the cold air is quickly retrograding and what may look good for us early on can quickly transition to a MA and S NE hit. Just saying, carry on...

 

Sorry for the typos, auto-cucumber

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Do you know when the last time Atlanta had a snowstorm of 6" or more ? I know it has been at least 20 years.

 

Airport: 3/24/1983...7.9".

 

Suburbs: some got ~6" on the northside in the Jan. of 2011 snowstorm. Some well to the south may have gotten close to 6" on 3/1/2009. 1/2/2002 gave KATL almost 5". 3/13/1993 gave the western and northern burbs well over 6" in some cases and nearly 12" at Marietta. Jan. of 1992 did give KATL~5". the Jan. of 1982 snowjam gave KATL 7" over a three day period from two storms back to back.

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It really will be a battle of the models to solve the placement of that ridge, in addition to the large circulation around the lakes.  If it's too far east with the ridge and the vortex is too far south/southwest, there is no way anything can pop or hold together as it comes east.  Small changes will have huge differences in the long range.  You can see that with all the variability in the modeling (Canadian bomb and the Euro squash job being the two ends of the spectrum.)

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Airport: 3/24/1983...7.9".

 

Suburbs: some got ~6" on the northside in the Jan. of 2011 snowstorm. Some well to the south may have gotten close to 6" on 3/1/2009. 1/2/2002 gave KATL almost 5". 3/13/1993 gave the western and northern burbs well over 6" in some cases and nearly 12" at Marietta. Jan. of 1992 did give KATL~5". the Jan. of 1982 snowjam gave KATL 7" over a three day period from two storms back to back.

30 years without a 6"+ snowstorm is amazing, even for Atlanta. It seems like just about every other southern city has had a snowstorm of 6"+ since then. I would say Atlanta is due for a big one.

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Yippee, more impulse squashing on the 0z gfs and a ridge that just pushes east with no problems.  Cold and dry FTW.  5,260 closed lows in the flow and when we get a PNA and NAO combo that is favorable, they just disappear............lol.  I need a new hobby............that and sleep.  Maybe the new and improved GGEM will throw everyone that stays up a bone. 

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