Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 How's that 12z Euro look at 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Is it my imagination, or are the 0, 6 and 12 Z GFS, and the O Z Euro, trending a bit warmer for this system than yesterday's runs? Seemed less sustained, and more side swipey to me Still, the last Doc I saw had the 0 line into Fla, and that's what I look for on both models, to see some freezing around here. I'd like to see some shots into Miami for some good strong cold, but it looks like the models are looking out past a week and throwing up their hands and going Whaaaaa? There was at least a shot at some cold and flurries down to you the other day, and I'm not seeing that now I'm watching Mon/Tues time frame, just because it's close and if the atmosphere is really changing, we'll start seeing close calls....and around March 2/3/4 for that Mole gom low. I think the timing would be right, if the blocking sets up and the trough is back west enough, and the cold isn't too severe. I don't mind not having a storm again, or having a confused look for then on the models, as 3 or 4 days out is the proof of the pudding, not ten days out. If the cold air drifts away, or gets way colder and dried up, we could just enjoy some record cold, and have to wait for it to relax. Meanwhile, if things are changing we'll see it 3 days out, not two weeks out, as far as something to get excited about, lol. The trends are propitious, but something could actually happen early next week, and beyond that is just mist and phantoms, and tales of great deeds I just know I don't want to see the trough setting up east of Ga. and getting little or no cold, lol.....and it's already cutting out west Ala from the good cold, in one run. As long as the long range stays cold, I'll wait patiently until it's within three days to look for the storm. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Here was the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Much improved from the overnight run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 JMO the Euro was not too far off. Obviously we want a CMC solution but it wouldn't take much for the Euro to lean towards that. Given how progressive the Euro is with energy coming out of the west it would make sense that it would just scoot it out. Still has potential me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro ENS mean has a LP off the GA/SC coast on day 9, it's atleast something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 JMO the Euro was not too far off. Obviously we want a CMC solution but it wouldn't take much for the Euro to lean towards that. Given how progressive the Euro is with energy coming out of the west it would make sense that it would just scoot it out. Still has potential me thinks. 6 of 12 GFS Ensemble members on PSU Ewall from 12z showed at least some snow over portions of the SE with the 6-8 day system. The CMC was actually keying on a follow-up wave in the 8-10 day range...what the heck, let's go ahead and close out winter talking about individual storms in week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I've read in a couple places that the models may not be able to pick up the individual vorts that will be floating around at this range, that one of them will amplify, or generally the smaller details won't materialize until later. Very good stuff for a weenie like me, I'm all over that. Models wrong, show snow later!! check. I guess I'd give it till Monday or Tuesday. If a storm or two is not pinging off a run or two on the GFS or EURO, be tough to buy in to it. CMC was just superb though looking at the track. Classic; for CLT anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Good write-ups from CPC, IMO… 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 03, 2013 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ECMWF(EC)/CANADIAN MEANS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) MEAN. THE EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A LARGER RIDGE FARTHER WEST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RESULTING IN A MEAN RIDGE POSITION CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES. IN TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND, THE GEFS IS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHERS DUE TO BETTER OVERALL SKILL DURING THE LAST 60 DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AMONG OPERATIONAL RUNS PROMPTED A LARGER THAN AVERAGE WEIGHTING IN THE MANUAL BLEND. THE FORECAST CIRCULATION IS STILL DOMINATED BY A -NAO BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, CONSISTING OF AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MUCH-ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN EUROPE, SOUTH OF WHICH THERE IS A ZONALLY-ORIENTED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA TO SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MILDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND A LACK OF TYPICALLY-COLD AIR OVER THE CANADIAN SOURCE REGION TO THE NORTH. THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVORS A STORM TRACK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRIER-THAN-MEDIAN CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 07 2013 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT WITH SOME EVOLUTION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND FAR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE BLOCKING PATTERN EVIDENT DURING THE PRECEDING PERIOD CONTINUES AT NEARLY THE SAME STRENGTH INTO WEEK-2. HERE IT IS IMPORTANT TO DISCUSS SUBTLE, BUT IMPORTANT, MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH COASTS FLANKING THE CONUS. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE THE SAME AS THOSE DISCUSSED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT OF GREATER MAGNITUDE. THE ECMWF (EC) AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT GREATER RIDGING DIRECTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A DRAMATIC WEAKENING OF THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE PRECEDING PERIOD. THE VARIOUS GEFS MEANS FROM THE PAST DAY, AS WELL AS THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GFS RUNS SUPPORT A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE POSITION MOVING TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. THE HYDROCLIMATE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THIS SCENARIOS IS STARK, WITH THE FORMER SUPPORTING DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. THE LATTER WOULD SUGGEST MILDER TEMPERATURES MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS, WETTER CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE WEST COAST, AND A STORM TRACK EVOLVING WELL EAST OF THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND WEIGHTS THE GEFS SOLUTION SLIGHTLY MORE, ACCOUNTING FOR ITS SLIGHTLY BETTER SKILL AT THIS LEAD SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. PURELY ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE FROM EARLIER THIS SEASON SUGGESTS THE GFS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BETTER AT PREDICTING THE WEEK-2 PATTERN NEAR THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, THE CANADIAN AND EC SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS SHOW LESS SPREAD THAN THE 6Z GEFS ENSEMBLE IN THAT LOCATION. IN ADDITION, BLOCKING PATTERNS INEVITABLY FORCE SLOW-MOVING, CUTOFF FEATURES WHICH ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT, ESPECIALLY AT THIS LEAD. THAT COMBINED WITH THE CHANGE OF SEASON MAKES FOR A RATHER UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks to me like the trough is centered just a bit too far east for the TN valley (per the Euro ens maps posted). Perhaps someone in the Carolinas or Georgia could score with it, but we need it to back up a few hundred miles to give us a widespread winter storm. Anything can happen though. Are we really suppose to buy the cold vortex setting up that far south??? Looks out of place ...........so maybe its not so deep/far south and would allow something to pop or the trough to sharpen up with something diving into the base of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Good write-ups from CPC, IMO… 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 03, 2013 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ECMWF(EC)/CANADIAN MEANS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) MEAN. THE EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A LARGER RIDGE FARTHER WEST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RESULTING IN A MEAN RIDGE POSITION CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES. IN TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND, THE GEFS IS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHERS DUE TO BETTER OVERALL SKILL DURING THE LAST 60 DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AMONG OPERATIONAL RUNS PROMPTED A LARGER THAN AVERAGE WEIGHTING IN THE MANUAL BLEND. THE FORECAST CIRCULATION IS STILL DOMINATED BY A -NAO BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, CONSISTING OF AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MUCH-ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN EUROPE, SOUTH OF WHICH THERE IS A ZONALLY-ORIENTED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA TO SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MILDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND A LACK OF TYPICALLY-COLD AIR OVER THE CANADIAN SOURCE REGION TO THE NORTH. THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVORS A STORM TRACK NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRIER-THAN-MEDIAN CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 07 2013 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT WITH SOME EVOLUTION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND FAR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE BLOCKING PATTERN EVIDENT DURING THE PRECEDING PERIOD CONTINUES AT NEARLY THE SAME STRENGTH INTO WEEK-2. HERE IT IS IMPORTANT TO DISCUSS SUBTLE, BUT IMPORTANT, MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH COASTS FLANKING THE CONUS. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE THE SAME AS THOSE DISCUSSED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT OF GREATER MAGNITUDE. THE ECMWF (EC) AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT GREATER RIDGING DIRECTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A DRAMATIC WEAKENING OF THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE PRECEDING PERIOD. THE VARIOUS GEFS MEANS FROM THE PAST DAY, AS WELL AS THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GFS RUNS SUPPORT A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE POSITION MOVING TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. THE HYDROCLIMATE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THIS SCENARIOS IS STARK, WITH THE FORMER SUPPORTING DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. THE LATTER WOULD SUGGEST MILDER TEMPERATURES MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS, WETTER CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE WEST COAST, AND A STORM TRACK EVOLVING WELL EAST OF THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND WEIGHTS THE GEFS SOLUTION SLIGHTLY MORE, ACCOUNTING FOR ITS SLIGHTLY BETTER SKILL AT THIS LEAD SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. PURELY ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE FROM EARLIER THIS SEASON SUGGESTS THE GFS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BETTER AT PREDICTING THE WEEK-2 PATTERN NEAR THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, THE CANADIAN AND EC SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS SHOW LESS SPREAD THAN THE 6Z GEFS ENSEMBLE IN THAT LOCATION. IN ADDITION, BLOCKING PATTERNS INEVITABLY FORCE SLOW-MOVING, CUTOFF FEATURES WHICH ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT, ESPECIALLY AT THIS LEAD. THAT COMBINED WITH THE CHANGE OF SEASON MAKES FOR A RATHER UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK. Interesting. Looks like we need to root for the west coast ridge axis more WEST as the EURO and Canadian show. Isn't that ironic? Usually it's too far west making a -PNA. Noteworthy too if the EURO and Canadian is right, it would be a stormy look for the east coast, I assume no matter what the surface of the models at this range say. Sad to say though the GFS has been good on long range patterns this year so the rockies ridge axis and thus cold and dry could come in to play. Seems like we need to keep an eye on that ridge axis. West coast = cold/stormy, Rockies = cold/dry. That's what I got from that anyway. Good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12z Canadian Global for archiving sake since this likely the only time we will see a run like this. Pure deep south snow clobber. Sorry TN (except far east TN). This 12Z 2/21 run of the CMC fantasy would give on 3/2-3 verbatim ~8-10" of snow for many inland in MS/AL/GA/SC/NC with spots like Jackson. MS getting close to or a little over a foot! So, that would be a once per mulitdecade widespread, very heavy SE US type of snow. It wallops places like Montgomery, Birm, Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Atl.-Athens, Columbia, GSP, HKY, Asheville, Charlotte, and Raleigh. This run is about as good as that one Euro run from a few weeks ago but it gives areas a little further south the heaviest snow. Unfortunately, this is days 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Where can I get the 12z GGEM images out to 240 now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Where can I get the 12z GGEM images out to 240 now? Yeah, I have the same Q. I was just going by Moto's posted images. By the way, the Euro weeklies will be out very soon. I'm anticipating they'll look dreamy for the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 When the Weather Channel names our eventual Southeastern winter storm, they need to name it Winter Storm Larry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This 12Z 2/21 run of the CMC fantasy would give on 3/2-3 verbatim ~8-10" of snow for many inland in MS/AL/GA/SC/NC with spots like Jackson. MS getting close to or a little over a foot! So, that would be a once per mulitdecade widespread, very heavy SE US type of snow. It wallops places like Montgomery, Birm, Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Atl.-Athens, Columbia, GSP, HKY, Asheville, Charlotte, and Raleigh. This run is about as good as that one Euro run from a few weeks ago but it gives areas a little further south the heaviest snow. Unfortunately, this is days 9-10. I think this is the March 3-4 storm that keeps showing up on different models, lets hope so. I would definitely say it was worth the wait all winter for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Bulletin: New Euro weeklies very cold SE US and much of US weeks 1-3....more details later. Even week 4 still cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Bulletin: New Euro weeklies very cold SE US and much of US weeks 1-3....more details later. Even week 4 still cool. The question is.......cold and wet or cold and dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Weenie run coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Where can I get the 12z GGEM images out to 240 now? http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na〈=fr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The question is.......cold and wet or cold and dry? got to be wet, we sure seem to have wet when its warm, how about wet when its cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na〈=frThanks man! I got the 0Z ewall one. It'll be good to have the 12Z now.Edit: Thanks to Jon too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The question is.......cold and wet or cold and dry? The EURO ensembles seemed to have the ridge axis in the right place for cold and stormy per CPC. I'd think cold and wet. If not, I give up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 got to be wet, we sure seem to have wet when its warm, how about wet when its cold. I was always told it feels better when it's wet and warm, Im not sure about the wet and cold though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I thought we were going to have a storm show up on the 18z gfs for 2/28 but too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The question is.......cold and wet or cold and dry? Week 1 (2/25-3/3): wet Week 2 (3/4-3/10): slightly drier than normal northern SE to near normal southern SE Weeks 3-4 (3/11-24): near normal Week 1 turning quite cold Week 2: very cold..coldest week Week 3: still solid chill Week 4: slightly below normal Weeks 1-4: strong west based -NAO AO for weeks 1-4: neutral, negative, negative, neutral PNA: + for weeks 1-2; neutral weeks 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Weenie run coming up I thought we were going to have a storm show up on the 18z gfs for 2/28 but too far south. Awfully close on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Week 1 (2/25-3/3): wet Week 2 (3/4-3/10): slightly drier than normal northern SE to near normal southern SE Weeks 3-4 (3/11-24): near normal Week 1 turning quite cold Week 2: very cold..coldest week Week 3: still solid chill Week 4: slightly below normal Weeks 1-4: strong west based NAO AO fro 1-4: neutral, negative, negative, neutral PNA: + for weeks 1-2; neutral weeks 3-4 Good stuff, Larry! I am a bit skeptical considering how off the weeklies have been at times this winter, but they do align with your analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I thought so too. Wave move west to east and did not dig very much. On to 0z where we will have a new solution. At least the vort is not getting sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Awfully close on 18z Yeah it was....If that lead energy was a little slower we could of had a good storm on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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