tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I am bullish, not bc of ANY op, but bc the ensembles. Delusional......really? Can we not discuss reasons to be optimistic, in light of two crappy winters in a row? Start a negaboard if you wish, but some of the ensembles look especially great. That said, if I were a met I wouldn't be stepping out onto the winter ish limb just yet. Betting the streak is, after all, the safest bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 In responce to the above posts. If someone who doesn't visit these boards frequently were to read through these last few days of posts they would think a potential blizzard was coming for valentines day. I can't count the number of times I've heard the phrase "our valentines day storm" spoken recently. I can't stress enough how long range on any model is virtually worthless when you start analyzing individual storms. I believe you should stop at what the pattern looks like and I don't have an issue calling people out when they start talking about a potentail storm 10 to 15 days out. When I hear storm and hour 384 GFS in the same breath my heart breaks for this forum. That type of weenie non scientific crap shouldn't be tollerated and it surely didn't happen in the past. I am all for talking up a potential pattern but that imo is where the LR talk should stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 In responce to the above posts. If someone who doesn't visit these boards frequently were to read through these last few days of posts they would think a potential blizzard was coming for valentines day. I can't count the number of times I've heard the phrase "our valentines day storm" spoken recently. I can't stress enough how long range on any model is virtually worthless when you start analyzing individual storms. I believe you should stop at what the pattern looks like and I don't have an issue calling people out when they start talking about a potentail storm 10 to 15 days out. When I hear storm and hour 384 GFS in the same breath my heart breaks for this forum. That type of weenie non scientific crap shouldn't be tollerated and it surely didn't happen in the past. I am all for talking up a potential pattern but that imo is where the LR talk should stop. Good post and I agree. If the pattern goes to the GFS ensembles we will have something to track. That's about as far as you can take it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 This post isn't directed at Marietta, but since you raised it, I'll reply to it. I'll pose this question again to anyone who wants to take it: What would you like to discuss? The clouds and 5 mph wind? So far as I can tell, nobody is predicting a snowstorm on Valentine's Day and saying it's absolutely going to be cold and snowy in the LR. We have one group of people who wants to talk about potential, which there is, and one group who wants to shoot that down and talk about how foolish that is and how it's just as likely to not be cold and snowy. Group B calls Group A weenies and wishcasters and Group A calls Group B bittercasters. Neither is right in saying that because nobody is doing either.... Discussing possibilities on a weather forum is appropriate, from either angle. So again, what would you like to discuss? The current conditions? Because that's the only thing that we are likely to know with any certainty. If it offends you to hear about the possibility of cold or of warm, then go do something else and spare us all of your whining. I have to admit the first bold made me laugh pretty hard. The second bold however, is over the top and inappropriate. He is a good and intelligent poster and talking to him like that isn't cool...so don't. That said and the thing is, we have had a long standing (and appropriate) thing about discussing fantasy storms so far out...because 99% of the time it's bullsh*t and will be gone on the next model run or the one after...never to return again. So when people talk about storms 11 days out, it really is weenism at it's worst...and of course that is frowned upon...especially by those of us who have been around a long time and know better. Talking about the pattern in the long range is one thing and worth while but individual fantasy storms is something else entirely..which is not good. No there isn't a lot to talk about right now but that's the way it goes sometimes. You just have to be patient...and refrain from attacking folks who are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I have to admit the first bold made me laugh pretty hard. The second bold however, is over the top and inappropriate. He is a good and intelligent poster and talking to him like that isn't cool...so don't. That said and the thing is, we have had a long standing (and appropriate) thing about discussing fantasy storms so far out...because 99% of the time it's bullsh*t and will be gone on the next model run or the one after...never to return again. So when people talk about storms 11 days out, it really is weenism at it's worst...and of course that is frowned upon...especially by those of us who have been around a long time and know better. Talking about the pattern in the long range is one thing and worth while but individual fantasy storms is something else entirely..which is not good. No there isn't a lot to talk about right now but that's the way it goes sometimes. You just have to be patient...and refrain from attacking folks who are right. I'm not attacking Marietta. In fact, I said that in my first sentence. Maybe I've missed it, but I don't recall anyone saying it's going to snow in 11 days or hyping anything. There is a potential system around Valentine's Day and it HAS been showing up on the models. And that time frame has been talked about in other subforums, even by mets, as having potential. Maybe this goes back to differences of opinion of wishcasting. But being optimistic about a pattern doesn't make you a wishcaster or a weenie, unless nothing supports it, and there's certainly been enough evidence to at least discuss it without being derided for doing it. There has been a persistent griping this year about people discussing LR potential. Maybe we should just ban talking about the LR and only allow discussion of the next couple of days if we only feel good about talking about things that are almost certain. Again, I'm not calling out Marietta. I like him and I'm sorry if I offended anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Well it looks like around Feb 10th we have a cutter that could than pull down some cold air and hopefully develop some form of a block and than we need to get lucky with some southern stream energy after that. The 0z Euro blows up a storm on day 5/6 and hits the interior NE hard, hopefully that works out, it woukd be nice to see someone in the east cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I'm not attacking Marietta. In fact, I said that in my first sentence. Maybe I've missed it, but I don't recall anyone saying it's going to snow in 11 days or hyping anything. There is a potential system around Valentine's Day and it HAS been showing up on the models. And that time frame has been talked about in other subforums, even by mets, as having potential. Maybe this goes back to differences of opinion of wishcasting. But being optimistic about a pattern doesn't make you a wishcaster or a weenie, unless nothing supports it, and there's certainly been enough evidence to at least discuss it without being derided for doing it. There has been a persistent griping this year about people discussing LR potential. Maybe we should just ban talking about the LR and only allow discussion of the next couple of days if we only feel good about talking about things that are almost certain. Again, I'm not calling out Marietta. I like him and I'm sorry if I offended anyone. This discussion has come up every month this winter. Everyone just needs to relax and be glad that you got some winter weather this year. Bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 This discussion has come up every month this winter. Everyone just needs to relax and be glad that you got some winter weather this year. Bring on spring. Not everyone has had winter weather this year.... For some it's been the warmest winter in over 50 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Not everyone has had winter weather this year.... For some it's been the warmest winter in over 50 years. Exactly I was being a smartass. Lol! Because NC has seen winter weather and no one cares about GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I am bullish, not bc of ANY op, but bc the ensembles. Delusional......really? Can we not discuss reasons to be optimistic, in light of two crappy winters in a row? Start a negaboard if you wish, but some of the ensembles look especially great. That said, if I were a met I wouldn't be stepping out onto the winter ish limb just yet. Betting the streak is, after all, the safest bet. sounds like the euro ensembles are moving towards the gefs in the long range. Ridge over ak and split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I don't think anyone thinks the 200+ hr GFS solution is actually going to happen. It's just fun to talk about and surely more fun than talking about 50 and sunny for the next week. The main thing is that we seem to be heading towards a more wintry regime, so there will probably be some potential for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Exactly I was being a smartass. Lol! Because NC has seen winter weather and no one cares about GA. I care about GA. I hope y'all get a ton of snow from the Valentine's Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Meh folks get to testy in here over some pretty dumb ****, fact is we always talk about long range threats, heck the first thread on the Christmas storm 2010 was started on Dec 13th, and we were talking about it for days before hand in other threads. The Vday storm setup actually looks good we want it suppressed in this time frame as normally a good hit for us first has to be modeled to hit Cuba or south Florida, anyways folks should learn to live and let live who really cares if there are post about long range storms if ya dont think its gonna happen roll your eyes and move on without posting a whiny post about it. For the record we NEVER use to call each other out for talking long range and I think the fact that people do is one reason some mets have stopped giving input on longer range stuff. Fact is there is plenty in the long range to be excited about if you want winter weather...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I don't think anyone thinks the 200+ hr GFS solution is actually going to happen. It's just fun to talk about and surely more fun than talking about 50 and sunny for the next week. The main thing is that we seem to be heading towards a more wintry regime, so there will probably be some potential for something. Heck, I always think the loonyland storms will happen, if the pattern looks propitious...that's the way I deal with disappointment, lol. I think StovePipe had it right when he talked about how different folks deal with disappointment. If you love winter weather in the deep south, you will be disappointed 98/99 % of the time, and frustration can build to an unbelievable tension. Some folks deal this way, some folks deal that way Now, I discussed the potential for snow in Ga. over two weeks ago using the loony range of the Gfs. And it snowed in Ga yesterday. So that makes me a weenie genius, in my eyes, lol. And a no place for you here delusional weenie pollyanna, in others eyes. I talked about it a week out so I'm a weenie potentialist, 3 days out I'm a good maybeist, and a day out I'm a close probabliityist. It is however an undisputed fact that some in Ga saw snow yesterday so whatever you want to call me, the GFS and I, and others, to remain unnamed, were right....sure, for me, only a few times this year, and it was luck, but hey..... So I say talk about loonyland... it could come to pass despite the naysayers saying nay, lol. Just don't let Bob catch you And be prepared for slings and arrows from those who deal differently than you. It's all part of the wonderful world of weather. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Meh folks get to testy in here over some pretty dumb ****, fact is we always talk about long range threats, heck the first thread on the Christmas storm 2010 was started on Dec 13th, and we were talking about it for days before hand in other threads. The Vday storm setup actually looks good we want it suppressed in this time frame as normally a good hit for us first has to be modeled to hit Cuba or south Florida, anyways folks should learn to live and let live who really cares if there are post about long range storms if ya dont think its gonna happen roll your eyes and move on without posting a whiny post about it. For the record we NEVER use to call each other out for talking long range and I think the fact that people do is one reason some mets have stopped giving input on longer range stuff. Fact is there is plenty in the long range to be excited about if you want winter weather...... Pot meet kettle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 0z EPS control still has the storm between 264-288, track is from the Panhandle to Lumberton to just inside the BM. Major HKY SN it would appear based on 850's almost all of VA is good except the SE portion, most of the SE while either be watching the Apps or friends to our north. Really from about 240hrs on the runs looks great, lots of energy to work with, some southern type, and deep troughing carving out east of the MS. In other news, we have a battle setting up around day 5-6, second EC run in a row to show noreaster potential for the NE late week, GFS on the other hand says what cyclone, although 12z took a step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I care about GA. I hope y'all get a ton of snow from the Valentine's Day storm. I can attest to that. I think CR wants sleet, and some snow, for Ga. more than a lot of Georgians, lol. Maybe not as much as he wants for his house, but almost. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say that if CR sees a gulf low headed toward Fla. with cold air in place, he'd be absolutely screaming for snow to come to Ga., lol. I believe in Dr. Larry's climo, and I believe in long range madness, and I believe in CR. As for Vday, I'm not so sure yet...I"d need to see some more cold air in quicker, but the moisture moving across the deep south is encouraging to me. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Pot meet kettle? No I dont call people out for posting about long range storms, and this is the only time I have really called people out that do. Some folks do it like its their job or something to shoot down any post on a long range system with a obligatory post about long range being wrong 99% of the time blah blah blah like we all dont know that already, but since this is a thread for longer range pattern and systems I dont know why some folks feel the need to do that. Thats all I am gonna say about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 My suggestion: If you want snow so badly, take a trip to Utah or Colorado. Some of you really need to get off the computer for a week or two and take a vacation. Oh and didn't some of you complainers get accumulating snow just a few weeks ago? I haven't seen that in two years. It's like listening to a bunch of screaming children (forum members) at an elementary school on here while the teachers (moderators) are trying to control it. Got that off my chest and now I feel better. We now return you to your regularly scheduled program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 No I dont call people out for posting about long range storms, and this is the only time I have really called people out that do. Some folks do it like its their job or something to shoot down any post on a long range system with a obligatory post about long range being wrong 99% of the time blah blah blah like we all dont know that already, but since this is a thread for longer range pattern and systems I dont know why some folks feel the need to do that. Thats all I am gonna say about it. It goes both ways. Some of the very same people who are willing to discuss a 300+ hour fantasy storm will immediately attack, as a cliff diver, anyone who says they see a 300+ hour torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Now back to the topic at hand (please) .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Now back to the topic at hand (please) .... OK Pretty much climo for the next 7 days. Next topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 OK Pretty much climo for the next 7 days. Next topic. Near 80s again by next weekend. Above average in the East. Below average in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 0z EPS control still has the storm between 264-288, track is from the Panhandle to Lumberton to just inside the BM. Major HKY SN it would appear based on 850's almost all of VA is good except the SE portion, most of the SE while either be watching the Apps or friends to our north. Really from about 240hrs on the runs looks great, lots of energy to work with, some southern type, and deep troughing carving out east of the MS. In other news, we have a battle setting up around day 5-6, second EC run in a row to show noreaster potential for the NE late week, GFS on the other hand says what cyclone, although 12z took a step. The bolded is what happens in mby 9 out of 10 years I just hope the moisture that is being shown doesn't start to disappear as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 OK Pretty much climo for the next 7 days. Next topic. And this is why we are relegated to talking about the long-range fantasy land storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Now back to the topic at hand (please) .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 As a southerner, I was always taught to say "please". But, I like the strikethru in this instance - from a mod and more affirmative. As a southerner - thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Just have two separate threads. Some folks only look at days 1-5 or so,a short/medium range. Some folks like to speculate and look further ahead 6 or so days out,long range. It's not that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 JB says today that begining Feb 14 winter will go out strong. He says snow for MOST all of the country and that includes areas that he says people complain that he is not interested in, like the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Just have two separate threads. Some folks only look at days 1-5 or so,a short/medium range. Some folks like to speculate and look further ahead 6 or so days out,long range. It's not that hard. This, Jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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