franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 2m temps on the euro ensembles for days 10-15 are down right cold. The cold seems to be centered in the southern plains and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 0Z Doc 10 day map's strengthening Greenland block is a beautiful thing to see due to its implications for the days following. Now's the time to get as much sleep as possible, boys and girls. Seems like the GFS ensembles overnight are still banging the drum for strong west based -NAO from what I can tell. Just need to get the western ridge right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Save these images folks, you don't see them very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Save these images folks, you don't see them very often. Yeah right? I was just about to say, I think I've found a excellent example of both a +PNA and a truly west based -NAO. And is that a split flow coming out of the Pacific? Man, hate to come out of the first week of March empty handed, but I know that's on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12Z NAM looks a lot drier than previous run for the Friday morning CAD event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Great look on that 240 ensemble map from the euro doesn't get better than that unless it was mid Jan instead of early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Great look on that 240 ensemble map from the euro doesn't get better than that unless it was mid Jan instead of early March. Yeah, that's in the back of my mind...that anomily maps are great, but is it going to get our surface temps to below freezing this late in the season? If blocking is in the right spot and as strong as progged, I think we may just have a shot. Still skeptical though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12Z NAM looks a lot drier than previous run for the Friday morning CAD event Yea I was just about to post on that. Looks like the wedge isn't as pronounced as well although I don't have access to a good 2m temp profile so I can't say for certainty but just looking at 850 line looks more north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yeah, that's in the back of my mind...that anomily maps are great, but is it going to get our surface temps to below freezing this late in the season? If blocking is in the right spot and as strong as progged, I think we may just have a shot. Still skeptical though. If it were the middle to end of March yes this would be a major concern. However we're talking about very early March. I'm skeptical just because all winter we've seen hints but it never seems to come. I wouldn't worry about temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 If it were the middle to end of March yes this would be a major concern. However we're talking about very early March. I'm skeptical just because all winter we've seen hints but it never seems to come. I wouldn't worry about temps though. If the EPS control came to fruition like you mentioned earlier, temps wouldn't be too much of a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Definitely looks interesting the next couple of weeks. I think the CAD could come in stronger for this Thursday night and Friday morning. Seems lately the precip has been a little more and starting earlier than the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That's THREE Miller As in a week span at the beginning of March, for those keeping track at home. Talk about potential..... One of those has to happen, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Temps are always an issue in the SE, I know that's obvious but I have been burned too many times by thinking temps won't be an issue and in the end you are sitting with 35 and rain. I think there won't be an issue getting a s/w to trek in the right spot and give the se some precip, the tricky part will be getting the temps cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 12Z Nam didn't look all that different from the 0Z run to me. But maybe I'm missing what you guys are seeing. I'm not looking at surface temps.....just the ewall site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It sure is nice to see the Euro showing some kind of major system rather than only the 6z or 18z 300+ hr GFS. Hopefully the Euro is on to something big early on and the GFS will trend towards the Euro as the "event" gets closer...guess we just have to wait and see, eh? But that 975 low sure does look pretty...I am also worried about the temps, though. 850 temps are marginal at best. Then again this is hour 216. It can/will change in the blink of an eye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 12Z Nam didn't look all that different from the 0Z run to me. But maybe I'm missing what you guys are seeing. I'm not looking at surface temps.....just the ewall site. Obviously RAH is a lot smarter than me but I don't see what they are looking to support any ice, we need precip to fall before 12z on Friday morning, now maybe people NW of RDU have a little more time than we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yea I was just about to post on that. Looks like the wedge isn't as pronounced as well although I don't have access to a good 2m temp profile so I can't say for certainty but just looking at 850 line looks more north this run. Yesterday, the SREF had an mean fzra of .43" for the escarpment from Black Mtn, NC northward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Great look on that 240 ensemble map from the euro doesn't get better than that unless it was mid Jan instead of early March. In terms of absolute temperatures, the 0Z 2/20 day 11-15 Euro ensemble mean anomaly is so cold that this is actually about as cold if not colder than the coldest Euro ensemble run for any five day period this entire winter and it is way colder than any actual five day period for the SE US so far this winter! Moreover, at KATL for example, it has the absolute 850 at -3 C at 850 for the 11-15. -3C is ~5 C colder than the normal 850 for January! So, no, temperatures would not be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Following the Nam the Gfs is also quite paltry with its precip for thurs night into Friday now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hey guys I got a quick question. Im going to Cumbia SC on fri morning leaving out of Roanoke. With potential weather can anyone tell me what kind of job they do with salting etc around the fancy gap/NC mountains area on 81 going to 77. Not sure what to do if I should take 81 to 77 or play it safe and go out of my way a little and take 220 south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Let the hype'ing begin... https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Let the hype'ing begin... https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 If so, hope it shows the Triangle more love than the 93 storm did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Let the hype'ing begin... https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 Who's the Ryan guy, is he a met? Also, yeah 93 must have been a Raleigh storm, 93 didn't show CLT much love. From a WNC perspective, I don't think we care too much what happens to the storm when it gets to the Atlantic, that's too late for us. We need a bomb down in southern Miss/Alabama rolling in the north Gulf. Once it's in the Atlantic it's an ENC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think clt would take another 93. Didn't clt get 4-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Who's the Ryan guy, is he a met? Also, yeah 93 must have been a Raleigh storm, 93 didn't show CLT much love. From a WNC perspective, I don't think we care too much what happens to the storm when it gets to the Atlantic, that's too late for us. We need a bomb down in southern Miss/Alabama rolling in the north Gulf. Once it's in the Atlantic it's an ENC storm. 93 was a WNC storm, a blizzard in fact. Plastered WNC with 1-2 feet of snow on average and close to 5 feet of snow on Mt. Mitchell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Who's the Ryan guy, is he a met? Also, yeah 93 must have been a Raleigh storm, 93 didn't show CLT much love. From a WNC perspective, I don't think we care too much what happens to the storm when it gets to the Atlantic, that's too late for us. We need a bomb down in southern Miss/Alabama rolling in the north Gulf. Once it's in the Atlantic it's an ENC storm. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think RDU could have gotten a big snow from that system as well in 93 if the temps were better. I don't think lack of precip was the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Huh? Sorry, wrong about that. I must be thinking of another storm. At least I was right about CLT not getting anything in 93! I just didn't remember it so I knew it wasn't a big deal around here. Yeah, it must have been a temp issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think RDU could have gotten a big snow from that system as well in 93 if the temps were better. I don't think lack of precip was the problem. I don't know, the center of the low went right over Raleigh, so temps would have still been an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Sorry, wrong about that. I must be thinking of another storm. At least I was right about CLT not getting anything in 93! Except they did. They received 2 inches in the middle of March. That's not bad at all. I don't buy the Euro yet but if it came to fruition as the EPS Control Run had it we would easily be in 8 inches or more I would think. Just a lot of wishful thinking right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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