February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[packbacker]

But is there any cold air?

Tw

 

The majority show ridging in the west with blocking, good enough for 9-10 days out.  The ENS mean is reasonable.

[tarheelwx]

The majority show ridging in the west with blocking, good enough for 9-10 days out. The ENS mean is reasonable.

So I take it they're not really cold , but cold enough for winter precip outside of the mountains? Thanks. TW

[SnowNiner]

Well, I think it's safe enough to say there's going to be a storm at that time period.  I feel confident about that.  As mentioned though, is there going to be enough cold in March?  Going to have a nice -NAO and from below it looks like the PNA spikes positive right around this time as well.  +PNA and -NAO.  This is what we've been waiting for.  I'm very skeptical on the temps though.  I've never seen them good and cold in March IMBY.  Snow yes, but melt as it hits snow for the most part.   If it doesn't happen here though, I think we're done.  Probably the best set up this winter.  The SE's last stand!!

 

[packbacker]

So I take it they're not really cold , but cold enough for winter precip outside of the mountains? Thanks. TW

 

Correct, not crazy cold, but if we get a strong enough storm with a good track it will be cold enough for snow, outside of the mountains, IMO....

[Lookout]

Meh. It's actually been about the same up here. I had a slushy quarter inch of snow a couple of weeks ago and a very light glaze of freezing rain. Officially the airport hasn't recorded any accumulation of any sort this Winter.

Chattanooga almost always gets screwed.Bob can verify that....but you still have gotten more than me I was mainly referring to the rest of tn. It's pretty rare for eastern tn to get any freezing rain due to waa out of ahead of systems....which goes to show you how crappy this winter has been for some of us. Plus  I'm pretty sure they have gotten some snow

[NGaWxNerd]

Well, I think it's safe enough to say there's going to be a storm at that time period.  I feel confident about that.  As mentioned though, is there going to be enough cold in March?  Going to have a nice -NAO and from below it looks like the PNA spikes positive right around this time as well.  +PNA and -NAO.  This is what we've been waiting for.  I'm very skeptical on the temps though.  I've never seen them good and cold in March IMBY.  Snow yes, but melt as it hits snow for the most part.   If it doesn't happen here though, I think we're done.  Probably the best set up this winter.  The SE's last stand!!

 

We can name this storm "The Alamo" for the thread.

 

Disclaimer: This is not a suggestion we start a thread.

[burgertime]

Euro is close to something @216 but it spins up a Miller B it looks like. Actually has a 996 low around TN. 

[packbacker]

The Euro has a storm, but the blocking is more east based so it's an Apps runner. The storm that pounds Kanas/Nebraska creates a big 50/50 low, but it's not at 50/50, looks farther east.

[burgertime]

Euro is a head scratcher. Bombs out a huge storm in the OV possibly some back end snow for parts of WNC. 

[franklin NCwx]

986 over crossville. How much for Nashville?

[Poimen]

The EURO is further west with the GL cutoff (compared to GFS), thus the day 8-9 miller A ends up as an Apps runner.

[burgertime]

986 over crossville. How much for Nashville?

 

Looks like it would be close to an inch all snow for BNA. 

[Cold Rain]

Euro is a head scratcher. Bombs out a huge storm in the OV possibly some back end snow for parts of WNC.

Sounds like it's very much in line with winter so far. Too far west? Maybe, but until we see solid, conclusive evidence of a true west-based -NAO, aligned with a positive, or at least neutral PNA, in the near term, there is no reason at all to expect a Miller A tracking up the coast....outside of a long-shot anomalous event.

[packbacker]

Sounds like it's very much in line with winter so far. Too far west? Maybe, but until we see solid, conclusive evidence of a true west-based -NAO, aligned with a positive, or at least neutral PNA, in the near term, there is no reason at all to expect a Miller A tracking up the coast....outside of a long-shot anomalous event.

 

But good news, is it looks like a great chance for a winter storm around that time frame, whether it's an App's runner, miller B transfer over the MA and slams the NE or if it's a true miller A.  You know what I think is going to happen.....

[SnowNiner]

Sounds like it's very much in line with winter so far. Too far west? Maybe, but until we see solid, conclusive evidence of a true west-based -NAO, aligned with a positive, or at least neutral PNA, in the near term, there is no reason at all to expect a Miller A tracking up the coast....outside of a long-shot anomalous event.

 

Very early, but you may be right...bet the streak.  We'll see what the EURO holds in a few days.  But to me, GFS is the model this winter; especially on long range patterns.  I'll hug it on the west based NAO until it loses it.  It's had it for several days now I think.  If the EURO picks up on the blocking, the storm will go back Miller A southern route IMO.  I just hope the GFS stays on its game. 

 

Besides, this is GaWx's storm he's been calling for since December.  It's gotta happen!

[Southern Track]

The ensembles have shown a consistent -NAO and +PNA for a while at that time frame. The Euro made a huge jump in the right direction from the 0z run.

The 0z had the low over Ohio at the same time.

[tnweathernut]

I know it's a 10 day map, but the one behind the leader looks nice too, nice ridging on the west coast, a closed low in the southwest with nowhere to go except east.  Perhaps a couple of opportunities before we break into spring. 

[Cold Rain]

But good news, is it looks like a great chance for a winter storm around that time frame, whether it's an App's runner, miller B transfer over the MA and slams the NE or if it's a true miller A. You know what I think is going to happen.....

Yup....whether it's us or not, there's a decent chance for a Doozy around that time! I'd still love to get some of that colder air on the other side of the universe over here before winter's out, though. Anyway, here's hoping.

[Cold Rain]

Very early, but you may be right...bet the streak. We'll see what the EURO holds in a few days. But to me, GFS is the model this winter; especially on long range patterns. I'll hug it on the west based NAO until it loses it. It's had it for several days now I think. If the EURO picks up on the blocking, the storm will go back Miller A southern route IMO. I just hope the GFS stays on its game.

Besides, this is GaWx's storm he's been calling for since December. It's gotta happen!

Yeah, it feels like the GFS has done as good a job as anything else this year. But that pesky -NAO seems to keep being a mirage in the LR. Maybe it's the real deal this time. You'd have to think we'll eventually see one of those in our lifetime again, right?

On another note, there's a fairly good CAD look at 168 on the Euro....better than the one this week, IMO. I'm only looking at the PSU eWall maps, so surface temps/precip may be no bueno. But although the 1032 HP in SE Canada is a little too far north for my liking, there's good ridging and good moisture at H7 and H85. And there's plenty of room for trending....

[packbacker]

Yup....whether it's us or not, there's a decent chance for a Doozy around that time! I'd still love to get some of that colder air on the other side of the universe over here before winter's out, though. Anyway, here's hoping.

 

That would make things to easy :-)

 

Nothing is easy when it comes to snow in the SE.

[packbacker]

The analogs for day 10+ on the GFS are just crazy...on SV it has the following analogs...

Every analog +/- 5 days or so had a big winter storm for the area, some historic and some more than one.

2/22/1960 (historic early March winter storms in the SE)

3/18/1981 (big winter storm for GSO and points west)

2/13/1978 (big winter storm for NC)

2/18/2010 (enough said)

3/3/1962 (big winter storm for NC)

[packfan98]

Afternoon discussion from Raleigh NWS:

 

 

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT INTHIS PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP PATTERN AND TIMING... ALTHOUGH THERE HASBEEN A SLIGHT TREND TO THE SE OF THE MIDWEST SURFACE/MID LEVEL LOWS.THE ECMWF`S LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES HAVE TRENDED COLDER IN THE WEDGEREGION FOR FRIDAY MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN MORECONSISTENT WITH THESE. MODEL-INDICATED SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ANDPARTIAL THICKNESSES BOTH SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN (AND BRIEFLIGHT SLEET) AT THE ONSET... PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... TRENDING TO ALL LIGHTFREEZING RAIN THEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE ICE NUCLEATIONREGION ALOFT DRIES OUT DURING FRIDAY. HOWEVER... THE NAM HAS NOTABLYMORE QPF THAN THE GFS/ECMWF (DUE TO MUCH STRONGER 850 MBCONVERGENCE) THROUGH FRIDAY AND DOES NOT DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELSUNTIL LATE AFTERNOON... WHICH DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT FROM THEGFS/ECMWF. THESE TWO MODELS DEPICT BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELLAS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES OVER THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...SUGGESTING THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HOLD TO OUR SOUTH ALONG ACONVECTIVE BAND MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... A SCENARIOFURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE SREF`S VERY LOW PROBABILITIES (UNDER 50%)OF A TENTH INCH OR MORE. IN SHORT... EXPECT HIGH POPS BUT WITHMODEST QPF. PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING MORE THANA THIN GLAZE AT MOST... ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SURFACECONDITIONS AND PRECEDING TEMPS... IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY AT THIS TIMERANGE. AT MOST... WE WOULD LIKELY SEE A LOW-END ADVISORY OVER THENRN AND WRN PIEDMONT. WE DO ANTICIPATE ESTABLISHMENT OF A STRONGDAMMING WEDGE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DRYAIR RIDGE IS REINFORCED AND STABILIZED FURTHER BY NEAR-SURFACE WEAKCOOL AIR ADVECTION BENEATH INCREASING 850-800 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION.EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLINGAS UPPER LEVEL (500-300 MB) ASCENT INDUCES VIRGA AND SLOW SATURATIONOF THE MID/LOWER LEVELS. READINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW-MID 30S FORTHE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH GOOD RAIN CHANCES SPREADING INFROM THE WEST. ASCENT WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY MORNING AS THE 850 MB WARMFRONT (AND LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E) SURGES NNE TOWARD NC.WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGH... AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOWAND BE CONFINED LARGELY TO THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST HIGHS FORFRIDAY HAVE BEEN BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AND FINALLY GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO RESPOND TO THE WEDGE PATTERN.EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

[SnowNiner]

The analogs for day 10+ on the GFS are just crazy...on SV it has the following analogs...

Every analog +/- 5 days or so had a big winter storm for the area, some historic and some more than one.

2/22/1960 (historic early March winter storms in the SE)

3/18/1981 (big winter storm for GSO and points west)

2/13/1978 (big winter storm for NC)

2/18/2010 (enough said)

3/3/1962 (big winter storm for NC)

 

 

Nice.  I wonder if these analogs take in to account the cold being on the other side of the globe, or is it simply H5 pattern; anomolies? 

 

By the way, don sutherland has had some recent posts in the main page discussing snowier than average March for mid-atlantic and northeast.  IMO, if mid atlantic is in the game, so are we.  Especially if we can get a true Miller A.

[packbacker]

Nice.  I wonder if these analogs take in to account the cold being on the other side of the globe, or is it simply H5 pattern; anomolies? 

 

By the way, don sutherland has had some recent posts in the main page discussing snowier than average March for mid-atlantic and northeast.  IMO, if mid atlantic is in the game, so are we.  Especially if we can get a true Miller A.

 

Just the 500mb height anomalies, let's ignore the fact the cold is bottled up on the other side of the globe.  We are going to need some dynamics to help and a moderate HP to help, but not impossible.  And to be honest if it's not a big, dynamic storm I don't care if it snows, I just assume it not give us token flakes.

[SnowNiner]

Just the 500mb height anomalies, let's ignore the fact the cold is bottled up on the other side of the globe.  We are going to need some dynamics to help and a moderate HP to help, but not impossible.  And to be honest if it's not a big, dynamic storm I don't care if it snows, I just assume it not give us token flakes.

 

Question, with higher pressure anomolies (blocking) progged in SE Canada, wouldn't you expect a high pressure in the area to help with cold transport?  Or is the blocking and surface pressures not related? 

[packbacker]

Question, with higher pressure anomolies (blocking) progged in SE Canada, wouldn't you expect a high pressure in the area to help with cold transport?  Or is the blocking and surface pressures not related? 

 

Definitely, but with the northern stream still somewhat dominant a pesky low could get trapped over the lakes and cut off our cold air supply.

[tnweathernut]

I hear the euro control run is showing not one,not two, but three coastal's. Can anyone confirm any of them are any benefit to the southeast?

[packbacker]

I hear the euro control run is showing not one,not two, but three coastal's. Can anyone confirm any of them are any benefit to the southeast?

 

Well 0z had a day 10 coastal and than a day 13/14 apps runner.  The 12z EPS control is not out yet, I don't think it comes out until 5:30/6pm.

[FallsLake]

The CAD is coming! RAH afternoon discussion states the chances of wintery precip is increasing but the amounts should be low (~.1).

 

 .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

DAMP/COOL/CLOUDY WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK.

FOR THURSDAY: A LONGITUDINALLY EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT TO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE THE VORTEX NOW OFF
OREGON ROTATES UP THROUGH NM/KS/NE... AND THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE... ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING JET-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISS
VALLEY (OK/MO/SRN IL/SRN IN) AS WELL AS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST...
AND RESULTING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THICKNESSES ABOUT 10-15
METERS BELOW NORMAL COMBINED WITH THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AND A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER ALL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 47-54.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
THIS PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP PATTERN AND TIMING... ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN A SLIGHT TREND TO THE SE OF THE MIDWEST SURFACE/MID LEVEL LOWS.
THE ECMWF`S LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES HAVE TRENDED COLDER IN THE WEDGE
REGION FOR FRIDAY MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THESE. MODEL-INDICATED SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AND
PARTIAL THICKNESSES BOTH SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN (AND BRIEF
LIGHT SLEET) AT THE ONSET... PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... TRENDING TO ALL LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION ALOFT DRIES OUT DURING FRIDAY. HOWEVER... THE NAM HAS NOTABLY
MORE QPF THAN THE GFS/ECMWF (DUE TO MUCH STRONGER 850 MB
CONVERGENCE) THROUGH FRIDAY AND DOES NOT DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON... WHICH DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF. THESE TWO MODELS DEPICT BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL
AS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES OVER THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...
SUGGESTING THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HOLD TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A
CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... A SCENARIO
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE SREF`S VERY LOW PROBABILITIES (UNDER 50%)
OF A TENTH INCH OR MORE. IN SHORT... EXPECT HIGH POPS BUT WITH
MODEST QPF. PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
A THIN GLAZE AT MOST... ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND PRECEDING TEMPS... IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY AT THIS TIME
RANGE. AT MOST... WE WOULD LIKELY SEE A LOW-END ADVISORY OVER THE
NRN AND WRN PIEDMONT. WE DO ANTICIPATE ESTABLISHMENT OF A STRONG
DAMMING WEDGE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY
AIR RIDGE IS REINFORCED AND STABILIZED FURTHER BY NEAR-SURFACE WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION BENEATH INCREASING 850-800 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION.
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AS UPPER LEVEL (500-300 MB) ASCENT INDUCES VIRGA AND SLOW SATURATION
OF THE MID/LOWER LEVELS. READINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW-MID 30S FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH GOOD RAIN CHANCES SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST. ASCENT WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY MORNING AS THE 850 MB WARM
FRONT (AND LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E) SURGES NNE TOWARD NC.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGH... AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW
AND BE CONFINED LARGELY TO THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY HAVE BEEN BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...
AND FINALLY GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO RESPOND TO THE WEDGE PATTERN.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

>

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[WilkesboroDude]

Best chances west or north of the Triad.