Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 For those who do not have access to the EC control run, look no further than the 12z gfs individual mem p002, 276hrs, I have marked the eps control at 276hrs, same time, with min slp. Track is basically Mobile Bay ~995 to Elizabeth City, bombing over the SE, close to sub 970 as it exits NE NC, long ways out, but some rumblings March could start with a big bang. 12zensp002p06276.gif Go home GFS, you're drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Anyone care to analyze the Thursday Night/Friday Morning potential icing for the Triad and northern piedmont? Temperatures look to be slightly colder than this morning's cold rain. Also, this is about the time that models will trend colder for about a 24 hour period when it realizes the depth of the CAD. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Anyone care to analyze the Thursday Night/Friday Morning potential icing for the Triad and northern piedmont? Temperatures look to be slightly colder than this morning's cold rain. Also, this is about the time that models will trend colder for about a 24 hour period when it realizes the depth of the CAD. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I think Fri morning will be icy in the northern/western part of NC. The precip amounts look fairly light, but as we all know it doesn't take much. I'm going to be watching this one closely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Anyone care to analyze the Thursday Night/Friday Morning potential icing for the Triad and northern piedmont? Temperatures look to be slightly colder than this morning's cold rain. Also, this is about the time that models will trend colder for about a 24 hour period when it realizes the depth of the CAD. Thanks! I think Fri morning will be icy in the northern/western part of NC. The precip amounts look fairly light, but as we all know it doesn't take much. I'm going to be watching this one closely! Thank you very much. Looks like 2 hour delays for Friday morning to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That's because the best storms and arctic air show on days 11-15 Well, all the model runs sucked for the next 10 days, and all the really cold air is way far away on the other side of the globe. I know we don't need the coldest of the cold over here to have snow, but access to cold is better if there is more than marginal cold to access. At least it continues to appear stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Im really looking forward to the 12z runs. The ensembles from last night still show a lot of potential for the day 9-10 system. Of course this is all around march 1st so right in line with Larry's analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That's because the best storms and arctic air show on days 11-15 Haha! True. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 LR NAM still looks pretty CADdy with an ice threat, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 LR NAM still looks pretty CADdy with an ice threat, fwiw.it also has a 1068 high over Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 it also has a 1068 high over Greenland That's just ridiculous. The GFS has about the same look as the NAM wrt CAD, but the QPF is less, which isn't surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Ok, maybe i'm the only one but this one confused me lol Anywho, another 0.45 this morning. 0z once again was very very wet. 06z run not nearly as much and shifted south a bit with the max but the 0z euro for the 8th or 9th time in a row it seems shows tons of rain here in the long range. The euro does show an interesting cad event in the long range but even if it comes to pass (unlikely given the time range), It's likely to just give nc another system). Honestly at this point I've given up on this winter, short of a miracle. This is just one of those years where the carolinas and to the west and north get all the action winter precip wise and I get nothing. So although early to give up, I've seen this too many times...so my focus is on the heavy rains. We are right there with you buddy! Other than two snow showers we have had zilch in the way of winter precip AGAIN this year. The northern part of the county in the mountains around 1500ft got some but not much of accumulation in the event prior to today. Freaking north myrtle beach has had more snow than us in the last 2 years and here ?I sit at nearly 900ft above them....that just ain't right! Im ready to say bring on spring myself unless we can get a true gulf low and/or strong CAD which don't look to be in the cards. All of these minor deals and ULL's skip over me every time and are hard to stomach. You could literally draw a circle from central Oconee to Greenwood over to you and toward Atlanta and up to Toccoa and have the screw zone capital of the southeast!! I keep believing that sooner or later our average will be reached but it's going to take a really good snow (6-10") to do that for us considering the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Well, the Big Fantasy GFS storm that was way out there is now down to hour 216. It's a little warm this run, but the track is money. Now can we get the cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I see the op gfs still has the day 9 storm. This has ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Well, the Big Fantasy GFS storm that was way out there is now down to hour 216. It's a little warm this run, but the track is money. Now can we get the cold air? look great to me. I will cash out now please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Gfs says pattern is loaaded for March. Congrats Larry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 ^the low over the lakes is not good...replace that with an h and we have a winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Yeah, I would imagine some NC CAD areas at least will have a decent shot at wintry precip by Friday AM. We will see. I think Fri morning will be icy in the northern/western part of NC. The precip amounts look fairly light, but as we all know it doesn't take much. I'm going to be watching this one closely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12z GEFS, say yes....for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Gfs says pattern is loaaded for March. Congrats Larry. our luck it is all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z EC control had it also, much weaker than the previous run, semblance of an "A" development along the FL panhandle at 216, 228hrs 996 over Florence. Similar to the 12 GFS with respect to timing being moved up, and slightly inland track. Need a couple more days of continuity before I will feel comfortable in watching all the guidance lose this 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Ok, maybe i'm the only one but this one confused me lol For years and years of this century if Tenn. got 2 inches of rain, and Atl. got an inch, when it got to me, I'd get .1. Now the sheet is being balanced. Heck, I got a half inch over night. Last year that would have been .03, or less Easy squeezy. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 We are right there with you buddy! Other than two snow showers we have had zilch in the way of winter precip AGAIN this year. The northern part of the county in the mountains around 1500ft got some but not much of accumulation in the event prior to today. Freaking north myrtle beach has had more snow than us in the last 2 years and here ?I sit at nearly 900ft above them....that just ain't right! Im ready to say bring on spring myself unless we can get a true gulf low and/or strong CAD which don't look to be in the cards. All of these minor deals and ULL's skip over me every time and are hard to stomach. You could literally draw a circle from central Oconee to Greenwood over to you and toward Atlanta and up to Toccoa and have the screw zone capital of the southeast!! I keep believing that sooner or later our average will be reached but it's going to take a really good snow (6-10") to do that for us considering the last several years. :cry:he Yep to the bold. I've had a whopping very light freezing rain and a brief mix of snow/rain. What a winter! For all this snow talk or potential cold in the common weeks or whatever....it really doesn't mean much to me (and I'm sure you). That's no disrespect to those who put the work in to try and find some glimmer of hope to be sure, but this is not our winter. I mean lets look at what has happened. Several winter storms for MS, some accumulation in Al, snow/ice of all things in Tn, snow in areas above 1500 feet and the mountains from north Ga northward (north ga mountains have actually had a pretty good winter with several snow events, including this morning), snow in NC, snow in Sc to the beach more or less, and the areas you pointed out has gotten jack sh*t. It's truly sad when you would be happy with a fooking inch isn't? And of course cad/icestorms are very rare this time of year. So might as well scratch that one out. Major sigh. I know there is a chance of upper lows giving us something but as you said, they just keep passing too far north of us. Hell even the brief cold shots have been pathetic. So might as well focus on the rains and spring. Sad to do so in mid Feb. Yes, again, I don't normally just give up on winter this early but time and time again we get screwed and weather patterns often repeat themselves. But at least you have a better chance of getting some snow than I do since you are further north. Then again southern sc probably has a better chance (certainly more than me) :axe: We were really spoiled a few years ago but this truly sucks winter wise. And to add some weather info 12z gfs shows heaviest rain totals and not as much in central ga. Long ways off though so taking it with a grain of salt due to 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z EC control had it also, much weaker than the previous run, semblance of an "A" development along the FL panhandle at 216, 228hrs 996 over Florence. Similar to the 12 GFS with respect to timing being moved up, and slightly inland track. Need a couple more days of continuity before I will feel comfortable in watching all the guidance lose this 5 days out.big lows that run up I 95 are very rare lately. Although I sure hope its right with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That low north of the lakes screws the temps though, not even close on the 0z control, but who really cares about temps 7-9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12z GEFS, say yes....for now... Nice block and suppressed storm track....let's see if it holds. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/20/12zgefs.gif/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That low north of the lakes screws the temps though, not even close on the 0z control, but who really cares about temps 7-9 days out. Normally, I would agree with you on the 7-9 day temp thing, but IMO, the LP up near the Lakes is just as much, if not more, likely than any Gulf low that might develop. That feature has been a mainstay this winter and has messed up CAA on several occasions. I don't see any reason to suspect that it will be replaced by HP in future runs, although I will be strongly hoping for that, as well as the mythical Miller A that tracks off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Yep to the bold. I've had a whopping very light freezing rain and a brief mix of snow/rain. What a winter! For all this snow talk or potential cold in the common weeks or whatever....it really doesn't mean much to me (and I'm sure you). That's no disrespect to those who put the work in to try and find some glimmer of hope to be sure, but this is not our winter. I mean lets look at what has happened. Several winter storms for MS, some accumulation in Al, snow/ice of all things in Tn, snow in areas above 1500 feet and the mountains from north Ga northward (north ga mountains have actually had a pretty good winter with several snow events, including this morning), snow in NC, snow in Sc to the beach more or less, and the areas you pointed out has gotten jack sh*t. It's truly sad when you would be happy with a fooking inch isn't? And of course cad/icestorms are very rare this time of year. So might as well scratch that one out. Major sigh. I know there is a chance of upper lows giving us something but as you said, they just keep passing too far north of us. Hell even the brief cold shots have been pathetic. So might as well focus on the rains and spring. Sad to do so in mid Feb. Yes, again, I don't normally just give up on winter this early but time and time again we get screwed and weather patterns often repeat themselves. But at least you have a better chance of getting some snow than I do since you are further north. Then again southern sc probably has a better chance (certainly more than me) :axe: We were really spoiled a few years ago but this truly sucks winter wise. And to add some weather info 12z gfs shows heaviest rain totals and not as much in central ga. Long ways off though so taking it with a grain of salt due to 0z euro Meh. It's actually been about the same up here. I had a slushy quarter inch of snow a couple of weeks ago and a very light glaze of freezing rain. Officially the airport hasn't recorded any accumulation of any sort this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The individual members are impressive too, majority have coastals, although timing differs between day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The individual members are impressive too, majority have coastals, although timing differs between day 9-10.But is there any cold air?Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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