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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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Anyone care to analyze the Thursday Night/Friday Morning potential icing for the Triad and northern piedmont?  Temperatures look to be slightly colder than this morning's cold rain.  Also, this is about the time that models will trend colder for about a 24 hour period when it realizes the depth of the CAD.  Thanks!

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Anyone care to analyze the Thursday Night/Friday Morning potential icing for the Triad and northern piedmont?  Temperatures look to be slightly colder than this morning's cold rain.  Also, this is about the time that models will trend colder for about a 24 hour period when it realizes the depth of the CAD.  Thanks!

prb_24hicez_ge.01_2013021912f072_sm.gif

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Anyone care to analyze the Thursday Night/Friday Morning potential icing for the Triad and northern piedmont?  Temperatures look to be slightly colder than this morning's cold rain.  Also, this is about the time that models will trend colder for about a 24 hour period when it realizes the depth of the CAD.  Thanks!

prb_24hicez_ge.01_2013021912f072_sm.gif

 

 

I think Fri morning will be icy in the northern/western part of NC. The precip amounts look fairly light, but as we all know it doesn't take much.

 

I'm going to be watching this one closely!

Thank you very much.  Looks like 2 hour delays for Friday morning to me.

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That's because the best storms and arctic air show on days 11-15 :)

Well, all the model runs sucked for the next 10 days, and all the really cold air is way far away on the other side of the globe. I know we don't need the coldest of the cold over here to have snow, but access to cold is better if there is more than marginal cold to access.

At least it continues to appear stormy.

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Ok, maybe i'm the only one but this one confused me lol

 

Anywho, another 0.45 this morning. 0z once again was very very wet. 06z run not nearly as much and shifted south a bit with the max but the 0z euro for the 8th or 9th time in a row it seems shows tons of rain here in the long range.

 

The euro does show an interesting cad event in the long range but even if it comes to pass (unlikely given the time range), It's likely to just give nc another system). Honestly at this point I've given up on this winter, short of a miracle. This is just one of those years where the carolinas and to the west and north get all the action winter precip wise and I get nothing. So although early to give up, I've seen this too many times...so my focus is on the heavy rains.

We are right there with you buddy! Other than two snow showers we have had zilch in the way of winter precip AGAIN this year. The northern part of the county in the mountains around 1500ft got some but not much of accumulation in the event prior to today. Freaking north myrtle beach has had more snow than us in the last 2 years  and here ?I sit at nearly 900ft above them....that just ain't right! Im ready to say bring on spring myself unless we can get a true gulf low and/or strong CAD  which don't look to be in the cards.  All of these minor deals and ULL's skip over me every time and are hard to stomach.  You could literally draw a circle from central Oconee to Greenwood over to you and toward Atlanta and up to Toccoa and have the screw zone capital of the southeast!!

 I keep believing that sooner or later our average will be reached but it's going to take a really good snow (6-10") to do that for us considering the last several years. :cry:

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Yeah, I would imagine some NC CAD areas at least will have a decent shot at wintry precip by Friday AM. We will see.

I think Fri morning will be icy in the northern/western part of NC. The precip amounts look fairly light, but as we all know it doesn't take much.

I'm going to be watching this one closely!

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0z EC control had it also, much weaker than the previous run, semblance of an "A" development along the FL panhandle at 216, 228hrs 996 over Florence. Similar to the 12 GFS with respect to timing being moved up, and slightly inland track. Need a couple more days of continuity before I will feel comfortable in watching all the guidance lose this 5 days out.

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Ok, maybe i'm the only one but this one confused me lol

For years and years of this century if  Tenn. got 2 inches of rain, and Atl. got an inch, when it got to me, I'd get .1.  Now the sheet is being balanced.  Heck, I got a half inch over night.  Last year that would have been .03, or less :)  Easy squeezy.  T

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We are right there with you buddy! Other than two snow showers we have had zilch in the way of winter precip AGAIN this year. The northern part of the county in the mountains around 1500ft got some but not much of accumulation in the event prior to today. Freaking north myrtle beach has had more snow than us in the last 2 years  and here ?I sit at nearly 900ft above them....that just ain't right! Im ready to say bring on spring myself unless we can get a true gulf low and/or strong CAD  which don't look to be in the cards.  All of these minor deals and ULL's skip over me every time and are hard to stomach.  You could literally draw a circle from central Oconee to Greenwood over to you and toward Atlanta and up to Toccoa and have the screw zone capital of the southeast!!

 I keep believing that sooner or later our average will be reached but it's going to take a really good snow (6-10") to do that for us considering the last several years. :cry:he

Yep to the bold. I've had a whopping very light freezing rain and a brief mix of snow/rain. What a winter! :axe:

 

For all this snow talk or potential cold in the common weeks  or whatever....it really doesn't mean much to me (and I'm sure you).  That's no disrespect to those who put the work in to try and find some glimmer of hope to be sure, but this is not our winter.

 

I mean lets look at what has happened. Several winter storms for MS, some  accumulation in Al, snow/ice of all things in Tn, snow in areas above 1500 feet and the mountains from north Ga northward (north ga mountains have actually had a pretty good winter with several snow events, including this morning), snow in NC, snow in Sc to the beach more or less, and the areas you pointed out has gotten jack sh*t. It's truly sad when you would be happy with a fooking inch isn't? And of course cad/icestorms are very rare this time of year. So might as well scratch that one out.  Major sigh.

 

I know there is a chance of upper lows giving us something but as you said, they just keep passing too far north of us. Hell even the brief cold shots have been pathetic.  So might as well focus on the rains and spring. Sad to do so in mid Feb. :axe:

 

Yes, again, I don't normally just give up on winter this early but time and time again we get screwed and weather patterns often repeat themselves. But at least you have a better chance of getting some snow than I do since you are further north. Then again southern sc probably has a better chance (certainly more than me)  :axe: :axe: :axe:

 

We were really spoiled a few years ago  but this truly sucks winter wise.

 

And to add some weather info 12z gfs shows heaviest rain totals and not as much in central ga. Long ways off though so taking it with a grain of salt due to 0z euro

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0z EC control had it also, much weaker than the previous run, semblance of an "A" development along the FL panhandle at 216, 228hrs 996 over Florence. Similar to the 12 GFS with respect to timing being moved up, and slightly inland track. Need a couple more days of continuity before I will feel comfortable in watching all the guidance lose this 5 days out.

big lows that run up I 95 are very rare lately. Although I sure hope its right with that.
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That low north of the lakes screws the temps though, not even close on the 0z control, but who really cares about temps 7-9 days out.

Normally, I would agree with you on the 7-9 day temp thing, but IMO, the LP up near the Lakes is just as much, if not more, likely than any Gulf low that might develop. That feature has been a mainstay this winter and has messed up CAA on several occasions. I don't see any reason to suspect that it will be replaced by HP in future runs, although I will be strongly hoping for that, as well as the mythical Miller A that tracks off the coast.

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Yep to the bold. I've had a whopping very light freezing rain and a brief mix of snow/rain. What a winter! :axe:

 

For all this snow talk or potential cold in the common weeks  or whatever....it really doesn't mean much to me (and I'm sure you).  That's no disrespect to those who put the work in to try and find some glimmer of hope to be sure, but this is not our winter.

 

I mean lets look at what has happened. Several winter storms for MS, some  accumulation in Al, snow/ice of all things in Tn, snow in areas above 1500 feet and the mountains from north Ga northward (north ga mountains have actually had a pretty good winter with several snow events, including this morning), snow in NC, snow in Sc to the beach more or less, and the areas you pointed out has gotten jack sh*t. It's truly sad when you would be happy with a fooking inch isn't? And of course cad/icestorms are very rare this time of year. So might as well scratch that one out.  Major sigh.

 

I know there is a chance of upper lows giving us something but as you said, they just keep passing too far north of us. Hell even the brief cold shots have been pathetic.  So might as well focus on the rains and spring. Sad to do so in mid Feb. :axe:

 

Yes, again, I don't normally just give up on winter this early but time and time again we get screwed and weather patterns often repeat themselves. But at least you have a better chance of getting some snow than I do since you are further north. Then again southern sc probably has a better chance (certainly more than me)  :axe: :axe: :axe:

 

We were really spoiled a few years ago  but this truly sucks winter wise.

 

And to add some weather info 12z gfs shows heaviest rain totals and not as much in central ga. Long ways off though so taking it with a grain of salt due to 0z euro

Meh. It's actually been about the same up here. I had a slushy quarter inch of snow a couple of weeks ago and a very light glaze of freezing rain. Officially the airport hasn't recorded any accumulation of any sort this Winter.
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