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February Pattern and Storm Discussion

POWERSTROKE

By POWERSTROKE,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Ok, so Larry and Burger, I have to ask the obligatory, "How are the Weeklies and how does the EPS control run look?" :)

 

The Doc weeklies look mostly good for the SE US. Week #1 is just for 2/18-24. So, there's no need to report on that.

 

Week #2 (2/25-3/3) confirms the cold coming in near 3/1 that is on just about all models now. Week #3 (3/4-10) is solidly cold (actually throughout nearly the entire country). Week #4 (3/11-17) is slightly colder than normal.

 

Precip.: week 2 wetter than normal. Weeks 3 and 4 near normal. Normal March rainfall is rather significant. So, near normal is rather wet. At the risk of being criticized, I'll mention that week #'s 3's precip. pattern showing slightly wetter than normal in the NE GOM (a precip. anomaly max) and then east of NC/VA in a long band as well as slight dryness in the Ohio Valley while it is solidly cold in the SE, at least suggests a chance for a Miller A SE snowstorm somewhere around 3/3-7. We'll see.

 

Pattern: Weeks 2-4 pretty strong west based -NAO. I have a feeling it will finally materialize (based on cold analogs).

Weeks 2-4 mostly a fairly weak -AO.

Weeks 2-3 nice +PNA. Week 4 pretty neutral PNA.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

The Doc weeklies look mostly good for the SE US. Week #1 is just for 2/18-24. So, there's no need to report on that.

Week #2 (2/25-3/3) confirms the cold coming in near 3/1 that is on just about all models now. Week #3 (3/4-10) is solidly cold (actually throughout nearly the entire country). Week #4 (3/11-17) is slightly colder than normal.

Precip.: week 2 wetter than normal. Weeks 3 and 4 near normal. Normal March rainfall is rather significant. So, near normal is rather wet. At the risk of being criticized, I'll mention that week #'s 3's precip. pattern showing slightly wetter than normal in the NE GOM (a precip. anomaly max) and then east of NC/VA in a long band as well as slight dryness in the Ohio Valley while it is solidly cold in the SE, at least suggests a chance for a Miller A SE snowstorm somewhere around 3/3-7. We'll see.

Pattern: Weeks 2-4 pretty strong west based -NAO. I have a feeling it will finally materialize (based on cold analogs).

Weeks 2-4 mostly a fairly weak -AO.

Weeks 2-3 nice +PNA. Week 4 pretty neutral PNA.

Larry if this comes to pass you get forecaster of the year award. Nice work. Now we are ready for you winter forecast for next year?
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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

fwiw the euro control run has march 93 at around hour 270. 975 low running just inland at the nc/va border. Ji posted the map in the mid Atlantic forum.lol

 

Yeah, here it is (courtesy of Ji).  :lmao:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39301-february-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread-part-2/page-40#entry2136351

 

Let's remember that the GFS has been showing something really big for this time period at times, too.  While taking anything verbatim is silly this far out, we may have a big storm on our hands around this time period in some form or fashion.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Yeah, here it is (courtesy of Ji).  :lmao:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39301-february-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread-part-2/page-40#entry2136351

 

Let's remember that the GFS has been showing something really big for this time period at times, too.  While taking anything verbatim is silly this far out, we may have a big storm on our hands around this time period in some form or fashion.

 

For those who do not have access to the EC control run, look no further than the 12z gfs individual mem p002, 276hrs, I have marked the eps control at 276hrs, same time, with min slp.  Track is basically Mobile Bay ~995 to Elizabeth City, bombing over the SE, close to sub 970 as it exits NE NC, long ways out, but some rumblings March could start with a big bang.  

 

post-382-0-31894000-1361235090_thumb.gif

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

The Doc weeklies look mostly good for the SE US. Week #1 is just for 2/18-24. So, there's no need to report on that.

 

Week #2 (2/25-3/3) confirms the cold coming in near 3/1 that is on just about all models now. Week #3 (3/4-10) is solidly cold (actually throughout nearly the entire country). Week #4 (3/11-17) is slightly colder than normal.

 

Precip.: week 2 wetter than normal. Weeks 3 and 4 near normal. Normal March rainfall is rather significant. So, near normal is rather wet. At the risk of being criticized, I'll mention that week #'s 3's precip. pattern showing slightly wetter than normal in the NE GOM (a precip. anomaly max) and then east of NC/VA in a long band as well as slight dryness in the Ohio Valley while it is solidly cold in the SE, at least suggests a chance for a Miller A SE snowstorm somewhere around 3/3-7. We'll see.

 

Pattern: Weeks 2-4 pretty strong west based -NAO. I have a feeling it will finally materialize (based on cold analogs).

Weeks 2-4 mostly a fairly weak -AO.

Weeks 2-3 nice +PNA. Week 4 pretty neutral PNA.

 

Thank you sir.  Sounds awesome and exactly like what you've been describing.  I hope it works out!

 

fwiw the euro control run has march 93 at around hour 270. 975 low running just inland at the nc/va border. Ji posted the map in the mid Atlantic forum.lol

 

If you want to see me cry, give me a March 93 and I will upload a video of me crying.  Now, shift that 100 miles east, and I'll upload a video of heavy snow instead.  That would be better for everyone.  :)

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Griteater,

 Thanks for your detailed post about a possible way to utilize the MJO. Here's my problem with it: once we realize that we have to take into account the speed of at which the MJO is progressing and the time lag of its downstream effects, the usefulness of the current MJO is pretty much gone. So, now what are the favorable and unfavorable phases? You're pretty much implying that the current MJO, which I often here correlating to so and so, is no longer anything close to a concrete indicator like is often implied on this BB. I'm sure you know to what I'm referring, especially those maps of avg. temperature anomalies for each current MJO phase. This is getting beyond complicated imo. Anyway, the major winter storms for the SE US are all over the MJO maps. I recommend that people look at the NAO, AO, PNA, etc., but don't waste time thinking about the current and forecasted MJO (besides forecasts aren't even that reliable) since it is of little help imo.

 

Yep, the MJO is complicated, and I see it used in varying degrees.  Here's met ORH_wxman commenting in a mid-atlantic thread on the state of the MJO and its impact on the southeast and mid-atlantic (http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39301-february-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread-part-2/?p=2136494)...

 

"The MJO inducing a bit of SE ridge really hurt the Feb 20-27 period for the southeast and M.A. The Atlantic is progged to be pretty good...esp the the unique Hudson Bay block. If we could have had a bit of a western ridge with that and the active southern stream, that's how you get those PDII type setups...obviously an extreme example, but you get the idea. It supplies the cold more efficiently into the southeast and keeps the primary storm track underneath the OH valley.

 

The western ridge progged for early March is pretty impressive as modeled on the Ec ensembles. Obviously that is pretty far out, so we'll have to wait and see how it looks as we get closer, but that is what you want to see for trying to get a late season event in the M.A. I wish we had one last arctic reinforcement before that, but all the deep cold is on the wrong side of the pole. But at least there would be a shot in that pattern.

 

So I'd agree with zwyts that the Mar 1-7 period is prob the best to look at...doesn't mean something can't happen earlier, but the longwave pattern favors a bit later."

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wncsnow

wncsnow

Posted
Posted

0z GFS looked colder for Friday right along the escarpment in North Carolina. 1/2 inch or more with critical temps...

 

What do you think about the marginal event tonight? Looks like areas in Western McDowell and higher elevations could pick up a quick inch.. otherwise the long range has potential.. maybe more so than anytime this winter

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Folks,

 Just to give an idea of how cold the 0Z GFS is at KATL for 3/1-5 per MeteoStar, it is ~13 F below the normal for then. With the normal being 51 F, that would be ~38 F, which would be 5 F below the average for January and colder than any five day period so far this winter! The coldest five day period so far this winter at KATL has been the 39.4 F of 12/27-31. Actually, the coldest single day so far this winter has been 36 F, set on 2/17.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Quite the rains coming up the next 5-6 days, especially in central GA, looks like 7" of rain, yikes...

That's why this winter has been one of the best in years and years.  It has been since 1999 that we've gotten anything like this much rain in a winter.  All our storms have been measured in tenths, not inches.  This winter is amazing.  Even if we got snow like in 2010 it wasn't but an inch, or fraction of an inch, except for the ULL's in spring.  If we ever get anything frozen this year, it's apt to be a big one, because the balance is coming about, and we are shifting back to wetter times.... I hope, and after a winter of rains, I believe.  I'll take a foot or two of rain, and want another foot.  We can't get enough rain.  There is a lot of catching up to do.  And it's also why I think the cold will come, and find a balance following the rains lead.   All my life I've known that whatever the weather is doing, eventually it will change.  I'm so glad it changed to rain.  Wahhoooo!!  Tony

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

 Folks,

 Just to give an idea of how cold the 0Z GFS is at KATL for 3/1-5 per MeteoStar, it is ~13 F below the normal for then. With the normal being 51 F, that would be ~38 F, which would be 5 F below the average for January and colder than any five day period so far this winter! The coldest five day period so far this winter at KATL has been the 39.4 F of 12/27-31. Actually, the coldest single day so far this winter has been 36 F, set on 2/17.

  As soon as I saw the 0 line down in Fla. twice on a gfs map, a few days back,  I began to believe :)  It's coming, I just hope the rains stay strong.  A nice split flow would be the ticket...I have high hopes :)  It can't just find the rains after all these winters, and not find the cold too eventually :)   I'd bet on your climo call at this point if Vegas had a line, lol.  T

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

This just out from RAH for Thursdays event :

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
709 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2013

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-078-201215-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-
709 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FREEZING RAIN...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT
THE ONSET...WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE SLOWLY INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
SUGGESTS DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOR THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.

$$

 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Well, all the model runs sucked for the next 10 days, and all the really cold air is way far away on the other side of the globe. I know we don't need the coldest of the cold over here to have snow, but access to cold is better if there is more than marginal cold to access.

At least it continues to appear stormy.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

This just out from RAH for Thursdays event :

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

709 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2013

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-078-201215-

PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-

ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-

JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-

709 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FREEZING RAIN...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT

THE ONSET...WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE SLOWLY INTO

THE MIDDLE 30S BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION

SUGGESTS DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOR THE FRIDAY

MORNING COMMUTE.

$$

 

 

We know it doesn't take much ice to cause problems on the road here. This could end up being more of a travel problem than our previous storms with it coming during the morning rush hour. I noticed the local forecast has gotten colder for Friday, too.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

It is interesting that four of Raleigh's 10 biggest snowstorms occurred in March or April and only six occurred in January/February.  None occurred in December.

http://raleighwx.ame...opRDUSnows.html

 

I think if you look at it just from 2000 onward you would see December and January have been the snowiest months. I know we can get some stuff in February and March here, but it has been harder to do so the last 12 years. Of course, that can change, too. It looks pretty active from now to March. Either way, I think we have some good shots at a big snow storm or severe weather.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

That's why this winter has been one of the best in years and years.  It has been since 1999 that we've gotten anything like this much rain in a winter.  All our storms have been measured in tenths, not inches.  This winter is amazing.  Even if we got snow like in 2010 it wasn't but an inch, or fraction of an inch, except for the ULL's in spring.  If we ever get anything frozen this year, it's apt to be a big one, because the balance is coming about, and we are shifting back to wetter times.... I hope, and after a winter of rains, I believe.  I'll take a foot or two of rain, and want another foot.  We can't get enough rain.  There is a lot of catching up to do.  And it's also why I think the cold will come, and find a balance following the rains lead.   All my life I've known that whatever the weather is doing, eventually it will change.  I'm so glad it changed to rain.  Wahhoooo!!  Tony

 

Ok, maybe i'm the only one but this one confused me lol

 

Anywho, another 0.45 this morning. 0z once again was very very wet. 06z run not nearly as much and shifted south a bit with the max but the 0z euro for the 8th or 9th time in a row it seems shows tons of rain here in the long range.

 

The euro does show an interesting cad event in the long range but even if it comes to pass (unlikely given the time range), It's likely to just give nc another system). Honestly at this point I've given up on this winter, short of a miracle. This is just one of those years where the carolinas and to the west and north get all the action winter precip wise and I get nothing. So although early to give up, I've seen this too many times...so my focus is on the heavy rains.

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

For those who do not have access to the EC control run, look no further than the 12z gfs individual mem p002, 276hrs, I have marked the eps control at 276hrs, same time, with min slp.  Track is basically Mobile Bay ~995 to Elizabeth City, bombing over the SE, close to sub 970 as it exits NE NC, long ways out, but some rumblings March could start with a big bang.  

 

attachicon.gif12zensp002p06276.gif

 

 

Go home GFS, you're drunk.

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