franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 06Z GFS is not showing cold enough temperatures for an ice storm now at 120 hours. However, it still is quite a ways off, so we'll see what develops. As franklinwx was mentioning yesterday, hour 54 is looking kind of interesting. The mountains definitely look to pick up some snowfall out of this, but temps are also pretty chilly in the foothills and piedmont. We don't often get a snow changing to rain scenario here, but it's possible.[/quote It actually looks good from the over night runs. Checked soundings for mby and its a front end snow dump. Allans site showed 2-3 inchs for the sw mtns. Other global models the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 06Z GFS is not showing cold enough temperatures for an ice storm now at 120 hours. However, it still is quite a ways off, so we'll see what develops. As franklinwx was mentioning yesterday, hour 54 is looking kind of interesting. The mountains definitely look to pick up some snowfall out of this, but temps are also pretty chilly in the foothills and piedmont. We don't often get a snow changing to rain scenario here, but it's possible.[/quote It actually looks good from the over night runs. Checked soundings for mby and its a front end snow dump. Allans site showed 2-3 inchs for the sw mtns. Other global models the same. I want in on this franklin in the central mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I want in on this franklin in the central mtns. Looks like you are. This might turn out similar to the early December event in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I know winter is over, outside of the mountains, but this ain't bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 I know winter is over, outside of the mountains, but this ain't bad.... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zENS11- 15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif Probably right. Anything now is a bonus for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Probably right. Anything now is a bonus for us Here Here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It would be nice to get something where when the snow stops there is actually something on the ground but we may be SOL. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I want in on this franklin in the central mtns.12z gfs continues with this theme. Its an all snow sounding here to 48 hours. Your area should be the same if there is any moisture that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 12z gfs continues with this theme. Its an all snow sounding here to 48 hours. Your area should be the same if there is any moisture that way. It's extremely close to all snow here along the escarpment at 48... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It's extremely close to all snow here along the escarpment at 48... New cmc looks good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 In other news, sure is a lot of rain for north ga into the upstate again on the models...indeed likely flooding rains. With gfs and euro showing what looks like more than 6 inches of rain through 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 In other news, sure is a lot of rain for north ga into the upstate again on the models...indeed likely flooding rains. With gfs and euro showing what looks like more than 6 inches of rain through 192 No doubt...several rounds of significant rainfall starting Tuesday and again Late Thurs-Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 12z gfs continues with this theme. Its an all snow sounding here to 48 hours. Your area should be the same if there is any moisture that way. franklin is this for Friday time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Here Here... Sometimes the bonus is the best part!! I'm just learning to read the models, a dangerous amateur at best, but it seems there are some interesting trends "possible" for the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It's extremely close to all snow here along the escarpment at 48... Looks to me to extend out from the bottom of the escarpment about 25 miles. I Think? please tell if I'm looking at that wrong Edit: I think that's wrong, Should have said "extend a bit out from the bottom of the escarpment" No wonder Mets spend all that time in school!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 franklin is this for Friday time frame?Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I really like the 12Z GFS as a whole. There's never anything set in stone, of course, but there seems to be tons of potential over the entire run. Hour 48 has the chance of snow for the mountains with perhaps some in the foothills/NW piedmont. Hours 114-120 are really close to an ice storm in the CAD regions, but it may turn out to be only a cold rain. Hours 204-216 also show the potential for some CAD event, but we could use a stronger high pressure. Hours 312-360 show quite the boisterous Alberta clipper-type system that seems to hang around much longer than it should. Anyway, there's a lot disturbances out and about and no signs of super long-endurance warm bouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I know the teleconnective forecast changes like underwear, but: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I really like the 12Z GFS as a whole. There's never anything set in stone, of course, but there seems to be tons of potential over the entire run. Hour 48 has the chance of snow for the mountains with perhaps some in the foothills/NW piedmont. Hours 114-120 are really close to an ice storm in the CAD regions, but it may turn out to be only a cold rain. Hours 204-216 also show the potential for some CAD event, but we could use a stronger high pressure. Hours 312-360 show quite the boisterous Alberta clipper-type system that seems to hang around much longer than it should. Anyway, there's a lot disturbances out and about and no signs of super long-endurance warm bouts. I was about to comment last night after seeing the 0z run start to loosen up on the CAD...but we're in that Day 3-5 shadow on the GFS. Wouldn't be a huge shock if the CAD re-appears come Tuesday or Wednesday 0z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 06Z GFS is not showing cold enough temperatures for an ice storm now at 120 hours. However, it still is quite a ways off, so we'll see what develops. As franklinwx was mentioning yesterday, hour 54 is looking kind of interesting. The mountains definitely look to pick up some snowfall out of this, but temps are also pretty chilly in the foothills and piedmont. We don't often get a snow changing to rain scenario here, but it's possible. The northern Piedmont got a good ~2"+ front-end dump from the two Snowmageddon events of February 2010. Then it briefly changed to sleet and after dawn it was 33 and rain for the rest of the day, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 The northern Piedmont got a good ~2"+ front-end dump from the two Snowmageddon events of February 2010. Then it briefly changed to sleet and after dawn it was 33 and rain for the rest of the day, haha. I will take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I will take that Actually, maybe it was just the first Snowmageddon storm. Looks like it had more significant freezing rain than I remember, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Euro looks alot colder @ 96 and 120 vs. 00z run. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Doesn't matter what the Atlantic or NE Canada looks like. Everything in sight is going to cut straight to the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Doesn't matter what the Atlantic or NE Canada looks like. Everything in sight is going to cut straight to the Lakes. . Certainly looks that way if modeling is correct. Maybe the gfs iis on to something as we close out feb start march with a miller a GOM that keeps showing up after day 10. Not gonna get above normal here it looks like, but the storms are gonna cut up to our west when they are around. We really need the pacific to get shaking up by next fall. I can't handle a third year in a row of crappy winter. Outside these very low chance front end events I think we may have one more shot as we flip calendar into march if goofy is correct. Otherwise we may have just witnessed the last event east of the apps this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 . Certainly looks that way if modeling is correct. Maybe the gfs iis on to something as we close out feb start march with a miller a GOM that keeps showing up after day 10. Not gonna get above normal here it looks like, but the storms are gonna cut up to our west when they are around. We really need the pacific to get shaking up by next fall. I can't handle a third year in a row of crappy winter. Outside these very low chance front end events I think we may have one more shot as we flip calendar into march if goofy is correct. Otherwise we may have just witnessed the last event east of the apps this winter. I guess I am ready for it to be over. Every event this winter underperformed IMBY. Bring on severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I noticed the GFS tried to form a LP along a trailing cold front at around hr 240 or so. And the ridiculous storm from the 0z run of the GFS is still there; it's just wide right and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Euro looks alot colder @ 96 and 120 vs. 00z run. TW Looks like the Euro (as of 12z run) for my Mt.Airy 33-36 degrees = Cold Rain Hopefully it will trend colder in future runs? Also usually the Euro is a little warm for CAD events if my memory serves me right??? Please correct me if I'm wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Tuesday yep was just looking at future cast and it shows rain moving in from the west but as it comes in to wnc it starts as snow and sleet for a couple of hours tuesday morning starting about 4 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Surprised no one mentioned the possibly CAD the Euro was showing. It had a 1028 high floating around NY/PA at the onset. Then it moves into upstate NY with a 1032 around Montreal. You would think that would have it cold enough to start as either sleet, ZR or snow. Of course it retreats by the time the really heavy precip moves in but it was still pretty darn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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