jburns Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 That Valentine's Day Storm really excites me. The GFS has been pretty damn consistent with it for quite a few runs now. This is what will happen to that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 EPS control run has the Valentines day storm with enough cold air in place for a big one for upstate of SC and all of NC....of course it's a perfect timing situation and weeks away...so you know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 EPS control run has the Valentines day storm with enough cold air in place for a big one for upstate of SC and all of NC....of course it's a perfect timing situation and weeks away...so you know how that goes. We are scheduled to fly out to Vegas that day so money in the bank for that storm to verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The GFS does look very interesting in the LR and if we can get the flip then sure the sky is the limit. The Valentines Day storm has always looked more like a FROPA on the models not to mention it's 288 hours away. Truncation is building it to a Noah like flood and probably missing the timing of the cold by bringing it on too fast. Euro is also looking interesting out in LR with the over all pattern...a big cold front sweeping across the country at 210. Maybe this is when we can finally cash in. Watching the moisture crossing Ga/Fla one after the other, then wham an almost on V Day. That's a nice, fun look. As long as the cold isn't more than a state or so away, there's always the chance for another today, in a few days, or next week.. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I don't care what the 850s look like this far out, but give me an LP in this position (per the 18Z GFS) and I'll take my chances. I like the active southern stream that has been showing up in the long range. February could still be quite the awesome month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 i know its the 300 hr, but havent the runs been pretty consistent on the GFS at least? Trying to remember last night's runs... Wish I could see the Euro past 240. Does the GFS ever have something big from 300+ and then have it verify? I'm new at this, so excuse the ignorance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 i know its the 300 hr, but havent the runs been pretty consistent on the GFS at least? Trying to remember last night's runs... Wish I could see the Euro past 240. Does the GFS ever have something big from 300+ and then have it verify? I'm new at this, so excuse the ignorance The GFS has shown the same LP track (~200 miles) for the last eight runs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The GFS has shown the same LP track (~200 miles) for the last eight runs or so. Sweet! What are some ways to tell what kind of precip is going to come with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 My gosh the pattern looks great on the GFS after this next week. a "classic" coast to coast trough setting up and an active southern stream. Euro has moved toward this idea too so hopefully we can get a two plus week period of widespread winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Give me this look "verbatim" and I would push all my chips in on a classic coast to coast storm and a major snow for many in the southeast. Now is this where we are headed? That is the million dollar question. Would be nice to see the Euro continue moving toward the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Hey Wilkes........how bout we go with....... I probably have underwear older than you and I am well aware of what is needed to produce widespread winter weather. Give me the maps verbatim to where the GFS ensembles are going and there will be something for many to follow. haha.lol good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It is kind of hard to see a LP with that track verbatim off the coast of Charleston, SC not producing snowfall in at least the western third of North Carolina. Then again, at 995 mb, WAA would be in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Again.....give me the map from above "verbatim" and all 6 of your points would apply to me, including the dog. I know its a Saturday, but isn't it past your bedtime? I agree its a sweet setup. Now lets all hope the gfs and ggem are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Well the 00z takes all the love out of the Valentines day storm...it's close but no cigar as the low goes OTS. It still looks interesting in the LR so we'll see where it goes after this week. Should still be some fun times ahead as others have stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I agree its a sweet setup. Now lets all hope the gfs and ggem are right. It would be nice if the GFS and GGEM are leading the way, but I admit, even though I have been bullish on winter weather from the 10th forward........it concerns me not seeing the Euro on board. I have been leaning heavily on the MJO. Hoping to see the fruits of phases 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 0z GFS makes our V-Day Storm a storm for the fishes. Oh well; at least it's still there. The storm behind it is looking interesting, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It would be nice if the GFS and GGEM are leading the way, but I admit, even though I have been bullish on winter weather from the 10th forward........it concerns me not seeing the Euro on board. I have been leaning heavily on the MJO. Hoping to see the fruits of phases 2-3. Well if it helps the OP Euro wasn't exactly stellar for getting on board with the last big cold front. It's probably done better with the ENS on the overall pattern though. I say we wait until the end of this upcoming week. If the ENS is still saying no then we might have to get worried. By the way for NC at least hr. 348 is what would be a dream setup. Heck ETN would probably get in the game as well if that were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Wow, after the thumping at hr 348, we have yet another threat coming into focus at hr 384. Yes, I know, it's la-la land, but the pattern looks RIPE. That's three potential events in a week. Surely, we can strike gold on at least one (if the GFS' idea actually continues to show up in future runs)? The GFS has been fairly consistent. Maybe it's consistently wrong, but the Euro has been flip flopping around in the LR a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Well if it helps the OP Euro wasn't exactly stellar for getting on board with the last big cold front. It's probably done better with the ENS on the overall pattern though. I say we wait until the end of this upcoming week. If the ENS is still saying no then we might have to get worried. By the way for NC at least hr. 348 is what would be a dream setup. Heck ETN would probably get in the game as well if that were to happen. The euro has moved toward the GFS and is back to showing a negative NAO (of sorts) later in the period. I think we have fun and games coming pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Wow, after the thumping at hr 348, we have yet another threat coming into focus at hr 384. It has been one hell of a winter. I have had over 70" of 300+ hour snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yep. Looks like mid feb on is our best shot. Come early March, it's time to start drownin' minners!!! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It has been one hell of a winter. I have had over 70" of 300+ hour snowfall.Better than last winter. We only had about 20"!!!TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It has been one hell of a winter. I have had over 70" of 300+ hour snowfall. Yeah, but it's wall to wall cold out in loonyland, and you haven't seen that on the GFS in years, lol. I'm a changed man. Now I just want bug gigging cold, and I'll take my chance some sleet will happen along the way. I'm importing some glacier moles to bring down the arctic Now, I'm a cold and dry kind of guy first, then a bring in the lows guy second, lol. It's time the deep south found winter after 3 dang years. 0 degrees for everyone!!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Gosh, wonder why no mets are posting in here lately. Maybe it's because the Euro 8-10 day maps look awful and the LR GFS shows a bunch of rain storms in its almost-always-cold-biased long range. Day 10 Euro from last night is flat out awful. +NAO, neutral at best PNA, AO looks terrible. Southern stream is getting active -- I would expect a VERY rainy second half of the month. 6z GFS? Warm next weekend, the rainy. There is a fine line between optimism and delusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Gosh, wonder why no mets are posting in here lately. Maybe it's because the Euro 8-10 day maps look awful and the LR GFS shows a bunch of rain storms in its almost-always-cold-biased long range. Day 10 Euro from last night is flat out awful. +NAO, neutral at best PNA, AO looks terrible. Southern stream is getting active -- I would expect a VERY rainy second half of the month. 6z GFS? Warm next weekend, the rainy. There is a fine line between optimism and delusion. I thought the models were showing a snowstorm on or around the 14th. is it already gone? very frustrating. just kinda wears on you when there is always a let down. hate to admit it but I'm about ready for spring. we'll try again next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Gosh, wonder why no mets are posting in here lately. Maybe it's because the Euro 8-10 day maps look awful and the LR GFS shows a bunch of rain storms in its almost-always-cold-biased long range. Day 10 Euro from last night is flat out awful. +NAO, neutral at best PNA, AO looks terrible. Southern stream is getting active -- I would expect a VERY rainy second half of the month. 6z GFS? Warm next weekend, the rainy. There is a fine line between optimism and delusion. aslo a fine line between freaking out and taking a pill. the op euro has had the same look for the past two days now. ever thought about looking at its ensembles? fwiw the ensemble mean on the euro has the vday storm, just like the op though on the op its suppressed. the euro mean is very cold in the lr06z gfs warm? your funny. last week it was showing warm in the lr and and now its done a 180 from that and still has the vday storm which is also suppresse.... whats the point in saying the op euro was bad last night? its been bad many runs before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Talking about a storm 11 days out is nothing more than a long shot prayer. Beanskip hit the nail on the head in his post. The odds of any model verifying any thing close to what it show 11 or more days out is probably in the 2% range. This forum has devolved into a weenie refuge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Talking about a storm 11 days out is nothing more than a long shot prayer. Beanskip hit the nail on the head in his post. The odds of any model verifying any thing close to what it show 11 or more days out is probably in the 2% range. This forum has devolved into a weenie refuge. what the point in even having a forum them? if people cant talk about lr weather or patterns or anything hell shut the board down then. I wonder why people even bother reading weather boards if they always comment on others opinions and tell them they are wrong..... does anyone really believe a storm 11 days out will verify??? I know I dont. but whats a weather board if you cant talk about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 what the point in even having a forum them? if people cant talk about lr weather or patterns or anything hell shut the board down then. I wonder why people even bother reading weather boards if they always comment on others opinions and tell them they are wrong..... does anyone really believe a storm 11 days out will verify??? I know I dont. but whats a weather board if you cant talk about it? you are correct in both of your posts. Its about the overall pattern and using the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Talking about a storm 11 days out is nothing more than a long shot prayer. Beanskip hit the nail on the head in his post. The odds of any model verifying any thing close to what it show 11 or more days out is probably in the 2% range. This forum has devolved into a weenie refuge. This post isn't directed at Marietta, but since you raised it, I'll reply to it.I'll pose this question again to anyone who wants to take it: What would you like to discuss? The clouds and 5 mph wind? So far as I can tell, nobody is predicting a snowstorm on Valentine's Day and saying it's absolutely going to be cold and snowy in the LR. We have one group of people who wants to talk about potential, which there is, and one group who wants to shoot that down and talk about how foolish that is and how it's just as likely to not be cold and snowy. Group B calls Group A weenies and wishcasters and Group A calls Group B bittercasters. Neither is right in saying that because nobody is doing either.... Discussing possibilities on a weather forum is appropriate, from either angle. So again, what would you like to discuss? The current conditions? Because that's the only thing that we are likely to know with any certainty. If it offends you to hear about the possibility of cold or of warm, then go do something else and spare us all of your whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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