Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I remember a year or two ago DT being steadfast about a LP not going straight into the lakes or ohio valley due to a block. Several days later, it went exactly where the models said it was going to go. So, I'm still leaning in the direction of the low going toward the western lakes. However, even at that the CAD is still showing up. TW Yeah. There should be some CAD, at least at the onset. Assuming the trough in the SW is real, assuming the block is strong and stays in place, and assuming the 50/50 is strong and stays in place, there should be enough confluence in the NE to promote and anchor strong HP and keep the CAD in place, while the storm goes west of the Apps, to some degree, and reforms off the coast in typical Miller B, ice storm fashion. Those are a lot of assumptions this far out. The one thing I'm most confident about, unfortunately, is the trough in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Give it time young grasshoppa! TW Yep, these types of systems are all in the trends. This is one to watch for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Ice storms in late Feb. is rare to say the least especially anyone south of North Carolina, but the one on Feb 27 2003 bought many northern counties of NC to its knees! No power for 5 days and power poles and tree limbs all over the place, It can happen................. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20030227.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Why is this storm even cutting, looks like good blocking. You would think this would be further south. - PNA doesnt allow any digging of the trough so it lifts NE. Plus the SE ridge is back again (albeit briefly) which isn't doing anyone any favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I guess I'm weird but I in no way want to see an ice storm, winter weather event or not. I also think it unlikely as the climo this time of year is not favorabloe for it. "Give me snow or give me death" or something like that I agree. I'm not a fan of ice storms. Driving during or after zr/ip absolutely SUCKS compared to just sn. Not to mention zr isn't nice to look at, and ip just kinda bounces around....snow is just gorgeous and i'd much rather see giant fat flakes falling than some ice pellets or whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 - PNA doesnt allow any digging of the trough so it lifts NE. Plus the SE ridge is back again (albeit briefly) which isn't doing anyone any favors. I believe from DT and other sources that a + or - PNA wont matter here cause of a split setup or whatever. It doesn't help or hurt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I agree. I'm not a fan of ice storms. Driving during or after zr/ip absolutely SUCKS compared to just sn. Not to mention zr isn't nice to look at, and ip just kinda bounces around....snow is just gorgeous and i'd much rather see giant fat flakes falling than some ice pellets or whatever Ice storms here rarely leave a lot of ice on the roads, especially at this time of the year, and if the storm comes during the day. The most likely scenario is an accumulation on the trees and elevated surfaces, which can be problematic in itself, but isn't really a driving concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Ice storms here rarely leave a lot of ice on the roads, especially at this time of the year, and if the storm comes during the day. The most likely scenario is an accumulation on the trees and elevated surfaces, which can be problematic in itself, but isn't really a driving concern. It's sometimes a problem with the early morning travelers/18 wheelers (usually not) on the interstates, etc. Of course, it'd be at night. In the day time, I've noticed that pavement/cement is usually a tad warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Ice storms here rarely leave a lot of ice on the roads, especially at this time of the year, and if the storm comes during the day. The most likely scenario is an accumulation on the trees and elevated surfaces, which can be problematic in itself, but isn't really a driving concern. Right, they usually treat the roads pretty well in my area. Late Feb as others have said isn;t usually the time for a significant ice storm but you never know. Mother nature can do whatever she wants, no matter what the models say. But I was mainly referring to the 1/25/13 ice storm we had, where the roads were treated and everything fell during the day...but it didnt get warmer than 26 and I wrecked my car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Right, they usually treat the roads pretty well in my area. Late Feb as others have said isn;t usually the time for a significant ice storm but you never know. Mother nature can do whatever she wants, no matter what the models say. But I was mainly referring to the 1/25/13 ice storm we had, where the roads were treated and everything fell during the day...but it didnt get warmer than 26 and I wrecked my car They don't even have to treat the roads. If temperatures are in the upper 20s or lower 30s, ice usually won't accumulate on the roads or directly on the ground, especially during the daytime, but even at night (unless it's been very cold recently). It's your own stupid fault that you wrecked your car. Drive slow and carefully with no sudden braking or accelerating. I drove home in the thick of it and never even started swerving. Everyone else around me was smart enough to do the same, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Why is this storm even cutting, looks like good blocking. You would think this would be further south. As was said by me a few days ago and just recently today someone else. That map sucks for winter weather in the SE. I posted a few days ago what the long range had in store for us.... An extended -PNA is a killer... It continues for the next 6-10 days as well. The 11-15 frame gets better now though on the ensembles.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 They don't even have to treat the roads. If temperatures are in the upper 20s or lower 30s, ice usually won't accumulate on the roads or directly on the ground, especially during the daytime, but even at night (unless it's been very cold recently). It's your own stupid fault that you wrecked your car. Drive slow and carefully with no sudden braking or accelerating. I drove home in the thick of it and never even started swerving. Everyone else around me was smart enough to do the same, thankfully. I'm calling BS. lol I tried to go snow chasing and it failed. I mentioned in the other thread about my car problems. Basically, I was going north on MLK and got to I-40. I was gonna drive around a little on some of the back roads up there. But...I hit the median right after cross I-40 and got an immediate flat tire. Called AAA and they said the account was expired. Changed the tire myself in the cold and snow, with just a light jack and t-shirt on, in the dark. Went to start the car...wouldn't start. No family members or friends would pick up the phone. Called 411 for a taxi company. Taxi finally arrived after about 30 minutes. It brought me home JUST in time to see the snow taper off. At least it was a pretty drive back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Could a met tell me how this would even be possible? Next frame boom goes the dynamite for NC. It's hard to take the LR GFS seriously when you get this garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 LOL at the 300+ hr GFS. Look at this ridiculousness. The LP crosses the Apps and then bombs out to nearly 980 mb over NC. After dumping us with 1"+ of rain, it switches over to a pretty significant snowfall over much of the Carolinas. Oh, and 522 dam over NC ... closed off FIVE contours at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I'm calling BS. lol Yes, that was my own stupid fault. I won't ever claim otherwise. I knew the road and I did that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 LOL, 00z GFS hr 360 showing a 974 low centered in ern/crl NC...LR fantasy tease again...highly doubt it will verify but hey 850 temps lookin good too. should check the sfc temps but what good would it do 2 weeks in advance nice to look at though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 LOL at the 300+ hr GFS. Look at this ridiculousness. The LP crosses the Apps and then bombs out to nearly 980 mb over NC. After dumping us with 1"+ of rain, it switches over to a pretty significant snowfall over much of the Carolinas. Oh, and 522 dam over NC ... closed off FIVE contours at h5. Totally NOT happening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Those winds would be insane. 1035 mb high pressure over the Dakotas and a 974 mb low pressure over Rocky Mount, NC. OMG. It won't happen, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Those winds would be insane. 1035 mb high pressure over the Dakotas and a 974 mb low pressure over Rocky Mount, NC. OMG. It won't happen, though. I think that'd outdo a lot of other well known systems from the early 2000s, and erm. some other years way back in time. Looking @ the H500, I don't think the system would care what 2M temps were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 They don't even have to treat the roads. If temperatures are in the upper 20s or lower 30s, ice usually won't accumulate on the roads or directly on the ground, especially during the daytime, but even at night (unless it's been very cold recently). It's your own stupid fault that you wrecked your car. Drive slow and carefully with no sudden braking or accelerating. I drove home in the thick of it and never even started swerving. Everyone else around me was smart enough to do the same, thankfully. Well the temp was in the mid 20s all day and the days before. it stuck to the ground. really no reason for you to be such a d**k. no, it wasn;t my own fault the car got wrecked. don't assume you know me or my situation just because you happened to drive home with no problems. i bet when you were driving home some lady didn't pull out the wendy's drive through 2 feet in front of you in the ice/snow/sleet. i had no time to brake whatsoever. i was going slow enough, 20-25mph in a 45. i know not to brake suddenly, i lived in NJ for awhile and know how to drive in the snow. but maybe you are unaware of the fact that sometimes accidents are unavoidable - this was one of those cases. so chill the hell out, quit with the hostility, congrats on not wrecking. does anyone know i i put some on ignore, i know i can see their posts but can they see mine? cause wildre...just everything he posts is negative and condescending towards members who dont have 5000 posts or a red tag. really annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Widre is a little bitter and has angst against snow.it screws him constantly,like today,and he wrecked or had car problems during a snow a few years ago.he told the whole rambling story on here. Next weekends storm looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Widre is a little bitter and has angst against snow.it screws him constantly,like today,and he wrecked or had car problems during a snow a few years ago.he told the whole rambling story on here. Next weekends storm looks great! Sounds like a personal problem! Not one he needs to take out on random people on a weather forum! But anyways enough about that, don't want to derail this thread. Are you talking about the storm on the 21 or 22nd? I've seen people mention it and have looked at the models but my untrained eye doesnt really see anything. Which run at which hour should I look at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 btw i saved that shot of the storm Shawn posted (post #1457) ... lmao i have never see such a discombobulated mess ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Well the temp was in the mid 20s all day and the days before. it stuck to the ground. really no reason for you to be such a d**k. no, it wasn;t my own fault the car got wrecked. don't assume you know me or my situation just because you happened to drive home with no problems. i bet when you were driving home some lady didn't pull out the wendy's drive through 2 feet in front of you in the ice/snow/sleet. i had no time to brake whatsoever. i was going slow enough, 20-25mph in a 45. i know not to brake suddenly, i lived in NJ for awhile and know how to drive in the snow. but maybe you are unaware of the fact that sometimes accidents are unavoidable - this was one of those cases. so chill the hell out, quit with the hostility, congrats on not wrecking. does anyone know i i put some on ignore, i know i can see their posts but can they see mine? cause wildre...just everything he posts is negative and condescending towards members who dont have 5000 posts or a red tag. really annoying. Sorry for off-topic but don't let Widre troll you! Haha he's ultimate at that the few years I've been around. I tried to troll him in chat once and he was just like "wtf? stfu" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I'm going with climo... law of averages.. I just don't think we'll see two complete winters that are pretty much non winters front to back. I think that low, or something in the ballpark is coming and maybe a bit sooner. It's entirely possible, even if I don't see the mechanism for the return of cold air. But Goofy had this weekend two weeks back as being cold, and this weekend the 0 line makes the gulf, which it hasn't in a long time on the GFS, and verified. Breaking the trend. A Big deal...breaking the ice ....pushing cold air all the way though Ga. Not just a quick dip. Now the 0 line makes Fla again in the long range, so it's at least possible that will verify. Nature likes to balance...and it's been warmish a long time. Larry says climo is ripe for a couple of weeks of real winter. I can't see the averages saying there is a good chance we won't see winter until next year...so that leaves March. It doesn't take cold cold. Just some hard freezes. Just several shots back to back....and some storminess to get some serious chances. You know, Winter! I think we'll see several shots of cold showing up on the models in the next week or so. If not, then I've got another huge anomaly to chalk up in my weather experience memory next year, maybe.....4 years and counting without a high below freezing if it goes to early next Jan. I've got stuff budding and blooming, and it's hard to believe they'll actually get away with it, lol. Not with 5 or 6 weeks for the slap down to arrive. And I've seen some cold March's. I think we'll have a chance at a storm in early March, because if we flip some, it'll be starting about now...and the Goofy long range will start popping crazy setup after crazy setup. If we end up with another record warm winter in a row, then we may have more serious problems than missing snow.....but I think the rains I've been getting this winter could spell a shift in the pattern, and the cold is just late catching on. The rains are definitely still showing up. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 How do I know not to even bother looking at models from last night? When the only thing being discussed is practically meteorological impossible from 300+ hours out on the GFS. I remember one time around late Feb. or early March of last year the GFS had a hurricane literally spinning up and affecting the east coast for one run at like 372. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 06Z GFS is not showing cold enough temperatures for an ice storm now at 120 hours. However, it still is quite a ways off, so we'll see what develops. As franklinwx was mentioning yesterday, hour 54 is looking kind of interesting. The mountains definitely look to pick up some snowfall out of this, but temps are also pretty chilly in the foothills and piedmont. We don't often get a snow changing to rain scenario here, but it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 - PNA doesnt allow any digging of the trough so it lifts NE. Plus the SE ridge is back again (albeit briefly) which isn't doing anyone any favors. I thought I read where the pna was going positive though by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Euro and GFS not even close for ICE late week. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Totally NOT happening: why can't this show up 3 or 4 days out. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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