MountainMarvel Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Snowing steadily and everything is covered. Looks like half an inch already, and the temp has dropped to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 FWIW, the 12z GEFS seem in relative agreement (considering how far out it is) with the op for the 300+ hr Superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 DT says the ice storm is still on. Says all the models are mishandling stuff. Looked to me that the euro came back a little at 12z. Still a ways to go. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I agree w/ DT TW. A main staple of winter weather in the carolinas is the 500 cutoff sitting up there over new england before a system ejects east. I really think this has potential to be a mixed bag system of front end snow/sleet to ice. We'll see how the timing evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I agree w/ DT TW. A main staple of winter weather in the carolinas is the 500 cutoff sitting up there over new england before a system ejects east. I really think this has potential to be a mixed bag system of front end snow/sleet to ice. We'll see how the timing evolves. Front end mix to ice used to be a staple of our winters when I was growing up (70's and 80's). Would love to see 2" snow, followed by 1" sleet, and then a nice 1/4 -1/2" crust on top. Best sledding conditions ever! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I love the GFS ~360 hour fantasy Superstorm on March 3rd. Widespread 1'+ amounts across NC/SC/GA. Ha! Yeah that'd be nice. 976 low right on the NC coast? Let's make it happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ha! Yeah that'd be nice. 976 low right on the NC coast? Let's make it happen If and when that happens it will have an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Atlanta really needs snow, however, the pattern seems to be that winter is over here. If that's the case, it's going to be 3 years since snow has occurred here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Atlanta really needs snow, however, the pattern seems to be that winter is over here. If that's the case, it's going to be 3 years since snow has occurred here. The only saving grace we have is a gulf low as depicted late in the GFS run, and it's getting to the time of year that it's highly improbable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On mobile cant post a link. You can see the models picking up on evap cooling, from a few days out too. The 850 freezing line is showing up over the mtns as the first few hours of qpf falls. Im sure it turns to rain after that. 12z euro shows this at 72 hours on Allans site. Snowfall maps show one to two inches for the mtns. As this current storm bombs out and forms a nice 50/50. That should help with more caa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Front end mix to ice used to be a staple of our winters when I was growing up (70's and 80's). Would love to see 2" snow, followed by 1" sleet, and then a nice 1/4 -1/2" crust on top. Best sledding conditions ever! TW I remember a few similar events in the late 90s/early 2000s. Those are always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I agree w/ DT TW. A main staple of winter weather in the carolinas is the 500 cutoff sitting up there over new england before a system ejects east. I really think this has potential to be a mixed bag system of front end snow/sleet to ice. We'll see how the timing evolves. I guess the main difference between this one and the CAD event last month is the surface high center is well removed in Canada instead of over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. May make it tougher to lock in CAD. We'll see a long way out. I agree that this looks like a winter storm chance if that cutoff can hold on just a little longer or the ejecting system is not quite as strong. Trends to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Fritschy, this is for you (and everyone else waiting for GOM LP)! Hour 348 on the GFS. True fantasy gold! Whens Wilks starting the thread? Ready to lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 A high pressure just North of New York in Canada is still a good position for CAD for the normal Carolina an Virginia areas,this has potential I guess the main difference between this one and the CAD event last month is the surface high center is well removed in Canada instead of over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. May make it tougher to lock in CAD. We'll see a long way out. I agree that this looks like a winter storm chance if that cutoff can hold on just a little longer or the ejecting system is not quite as strong. Trends to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 18Z GFS is great for next weekend. Maybe even some front-end snow before going over to ice for the CAD regions, TW, as you said. 850s are cold in the lee of the Apps at 132 and so are surface temps. 850s recede at hour 138, but surface stays at freezing or colder. Hour 132 with surface min temps: Hour 138 with surface min temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Keep in mind the models usually erode the low level cold air too quickly. So, this definitely bears watching. I'm pulling for a good old fashioned ice storm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Anybody back in Ala seeing any of that hit the ground? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Did I miss a post or something... where is this snow coming from http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf054.html Most members show some NC snow. Edit: Drr... I see it now, the snow today has messed my head up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Did I miss a post or something... where is this snow coming from http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf054.html Most members show some NC snow. Edit: Drr... I see it now, the snow today has messed my head up why is it when I go to that site and see all the hours when I click on say 54 nothing happens the maps won't come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 18Z GFS is great for next weekend. Maybe even some front-end snow before going over to ice for the CAD regions, TW, as you said. 850s are cold in the lee of the Apps at 132 and so are surface temps. 850s recede at hour 138, but surface stays at freezing or colder. Hour 132 with surface min temps: Hour 138 with surface min temps: why is it we can't get the cold air when a storm like this shows up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 why is it we can't get the cold air when a storm like this shows up? Because there's always a big red L up near the Great Lakes with a lot of little black circles around it. If we had a big blue H up there with a lot of little black circles around it, then we'd be in business. We used to get those. But they seem to be in short supply now. It's very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Why is this storm even cutting, looks like good blocking. You would think this would be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Why is this storm even cutting, looks like good blocking. You would think this would be further south. DT thinks so too. But what I have noticed is that even if you have a decent block and 50/50, if you have a trough in the SW, storms still cut toward the Lakes and tend to slow down and either shear out/fill or reform to the east. It may end up that it does come farther south with time, but with that trough in the SW, I would not be surprised to see it cut, as evidenced by Cold Rain's trough-ridge rule over DT's physical impossibility rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Give it time young grasshoppa! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Why is this storm even cutting, looks like good blocking. You would think this would be further south. It gets sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 DT thinks so too. But what I have noticed is that even if you have a decent block and 50/50, if you have a trough in the SW, storms still cut toward the Lakes and tend to slow down and either shear out/fill or reform to the east. It may end up that it does come farther south with time, but with that trough in the SW, I would not be surprised to see it cut, as evidenced by Cold Rain's trough-ridge rule over DT's physical impossibility rule. I've heard DT say its impossible for the low to cut to the lakes with that block in place. I'm no expert, but why couldn't you also say "there's no way the block stays in place with the low cutting to the lakes"? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I guess I'm weird but I in no way want to see an ice storm, winter weather event or not. I also think it unlikely as the climo this time of year is not favorabloe for it. "Give me snow or give me death" or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I've heard DT say its impossible for the low to cut to the lakes with that block in place. I'm no expert, but why couldn't you also say "there's no way the block stays in place with the low cutting to the lakes"? TW That, my friend, is a great question that never seems to get addressed. The assumption is that the block will remain in place. It might not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 That, my friend, is a great question that never seems to get addressed. The assumption is that the block will remain in place. It might not. I remember a year or two ago DT being steadfast about a LP not going straight into the lakes or ohio valley due to a block. Several days later, it went exactly where the models said it was going to go. So, I'm still leaning in the direction of the low going toward the western lakes. However, even at that the CAD is still showing up. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I remember a year or two ago DT being steadfast about a LP not going straight into the lakes or ohio valley due to a block. Several days later, it went exactly where the models said it was going to go. So, I'm still leaning in the direction of the low going toward the western lakes. However, even at that the CAD is still showing up. TW they can, usually it runs into the block and transfers. Miller b.As for the block staying put. Good question, I don't know, I bet hm or wes would know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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