tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Feeling good about the late week storm(s)! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 00z GFS really locks the CAD at 150 as precip moves in. Looking good at this point. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 00z GFS really locks the CAD at 150 as precip moves in. Looking good at this point. TW Yeah, that was a colder trend at all levels of the atmosphere. 850s below freezing in western NC now, whereas they were below freezing only in VA northward on 18Z. Hour 150: Hour 156: Here 850s have warmed, but surface temps are still below freezing for many CAD locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS is an icstorm next Friday for western/northern NC pretty easily. The pattern really favors confluence over the northeast and a strong HP system somewhere over SE Canada. The euro/gfs trend towards a big cutoff over maine/nf will allow for HP to stay locked in. I would not be surprised if this is our best storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS is an icstorm next Friday for western/northern NC pretty easily. The pattern really favors confluence over the northeast and a strong HP system somewhere over SE Canada. The euro/gfs trend towards a big cutoff over maine/nf will allow for HP to stay locked in. I would not be surprised if this is our best storm of the season. Seems like DT's video about this time-frame and NC ice could have been correct. I don't hope for an icestorm for you guys though. It can cause major problems up that way. Maybe you can some way get something else wintry than ice as the event nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I hope next weekend 22-24 is all or mostly snow so we can get one good event in and not have to worry about spring and our chances becoming slight and none. don't like that the suns angle is getting higher and higher. heck yesterday felt like April in the mtns no less. the 22-24 storm we need a stronger High to the north of us to keep the cold air coming or feeding into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 00z Euro went backwards on us. HP wedges in but is much weaker and moves out quickly. Warm air then dominates leading up to the next supposed storm. Oh well, Euro didn't do too good on today's storm. Hopefully this is just a hiccup. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 00z Euro went backwards on us. HP wedges in but is much weaker and moves out quickly. Warm air then dominates leading up to the next supposed storm. Oh well, Euro didn't do too good on today's storm. Hopefully this is just a hiccup. TW this has been the story all winter, the models never seem to go in the direction we want them to go unless its 2 weeks out. as the event gets closer we tend to lose the good the models were showing. so frustrated, come on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I wouldn't give up on this one so fast. The components are there IMO for it trend more favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 this has been the story all winter, the models never seem to go in the direction we want them to go unless its 2 weeks out. as the event gets closer we tend to lose the good the models were showing. so frustrated, come on spring. This belongs in banter (and so does my reply), and once again, I don't believe you really want spring. You want snow. Spring arriving does nothing to fix that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I wouldn't give up on this one so fast. The components are there IMO for it trend more favorably. I wouldn't give up on this one so fast. The components are there IMO for it trend more favorably. I wouldn't give up on this one so fast. The components are there IMO for it trend more favorably. Yeah, not giving up, but was really hoping to see the Euro keep up the ice scenario. The bad part is that it has trended the wrong way in that 5-7 day range (it's wheelhouse so to speak). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yeah, not giving up, but was really hoping to see the Euro keep up the ice scenario. The bad part is that it has trended the wrong way in that 5-7 day range (it's wheelhouse so to speak). TW I dont think any model has a wheel house anymore but believe it will come back for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I dont think any model has a wheel house anymore but believe it will come back for friday I'd say that's the quote of the day! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 this may not go in this thread but I wanted to ask, what does it take to get a good old fashioned GOM low to form or one of those lows out in the plains to drop down into the gulf to form a major low for us as it moves northeast we're on the northwest side of the storm to get the heavy snow? I grew up in Buncombe County and we always in the winter months had more GOM lows to where we always had quite a few chances at a good snowstorm. what has happened to cause us not have this setup that often anymore? can any mets answer this for me or someone with more knowledge about the GOM lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ice storm potential still very much there on the 12Z GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ice storm potential still very much there on the 12Z GFS today. Hey Calculus never been good at looking at temps that far out on the GFS in regards to ice storm potential. What am I looking at to determine this? I know 850 and surface map show well above freezing as the storm begins around the 141 144 mark but are you looking at 850 temp ht? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ice storm potential still very much there on the 12Z GFS today. I hope this trends toward snow. a little ice is ok but I rather have snow if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 this may not go in this thread but I wanted to ask, what does it take to get a good old fashioned GOM low to form or one of those lows out in the plains to drop down into the gulf to form a major low for us as it moves northeast we're on the northwest side of the storm to get the heavy snow? I grew up in Buncombe County and we always in the winter months had more GOM lows to where we always had quite a few chances at a good snowstorm. what has happened to cause us not have this setup that often anymore? can any mets answer this for me or someone with more knowledge about the GOM lows. No blocking... everything has been cutting across the US instead of diving down and traveling along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Hey Calculus never been good at looking at temps that far out on the GFS in regards to ice storm potential. What am I looking at to determine this? I know 850 and surface map show well above freezing as the storm begins around the 141 144 mark but are you looking at 850 temp ht? No, I'm looking at surface temps. The model page on American WX has great links to all kinds of maps. So, here's the precip field with 850s (above freezing in WNC). Typically, we won't have snow if the 850s are above freezing. It's not the end all/be all arbiter, but it's a good line to use for rough estimation. And here's the maximum surface temps during that same time period: And here's the minimum surface temps: So, verbatim, it's still slightly too warm for freezing rain except in the far northernmost points of NC. But, it's so close that the whole situation bears monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 No, I'm looking at surface temps. The model page on American WX has great links to all kinds of maps. So, here's the precip field with 850s (above freezing in WNC). Typically, we won't have snow if the 850s are above freezing. It's not the end all/be all arbiter, but it's a good line to use for rough estimation. And here's the maximum surface temps during that same time period: [img=[url=http://i.imgur.com/7SneQfr.gif%5D]http://i.imgur.com/7SneQfr.gif][/url] And here's the minimum surface temps: Appreciate that a lot! Obviously the Nam is a great model to show damming at the surface but we are still quite a bit far out however just wanted to get a head start on this storm as I'll be traveling to Columbia SC on Friday morning and wanted to get a better idea of what I may be facing in the NC mountains. I guess if the GFS shows this potential to my knowledge in the past it sometimes is too warm with surface temps and corrects as the Nam gets into its wheelhouse. Take care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Fritschy, this is for you (and everyone else waiting for GOM LP)! Hour 348 on the GFS. True fantasy gold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I hope this trends toward snow. a little ice is ok but I rather have snow if possible.I don't we get anything but rain from that. Watch the storms after that one. They have a better chance of producing snow for us. If you want gom lows, then the best thing to look for is an el nino winter like 09/10. Maybe we can get one next year. They will be hard to come by now that the Pacific has entered its "cold phase". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I don't we get anything but rain from that. Watch the storms after that one. They have a better chance of producing snow for us. If you want gom lows, then the best thing to look for is an el nino winter like 09/10. Maybe we can get one next year. They will be hard to come by now that the Pacific has entered its "cold phase". Yeah if anything, its an ice event for my area and areas to my NE that are CAD areas. Hard to get anything west of the escarpment with that kind of look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I don't see much of HP on that map for a CAD? maybe i'm missing it?? But 31 degrees wont get it done this time of year for much Ice!!! I'm talking about Thursday/Friday storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I love the GFS ~360 hour fantasy Superstorm on March 3rd. Widespread 1'+ amounts across NC/SC/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Cmc weenies run for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Everyone in western nc needs to look at the gfs and cmc around 60 hours for the next storm. Nice front end thump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Everyone in western nc needs to look at the gfs and cmc around 60 hours for the next storm. Nice front end thump of snow.I have no clue what you're looking at @ 60 hours. Can u post a link?Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I have no clue what you're looking at @ 60 hours. Can u post a link? Tw That's what I been looking for? I don't see anything? Looks like Va. Ice storm late week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On mobile cant post a link. You can see the models picking up on evap cooling, from a few days out too. The 850 freezing line is showing up over the mtns as the first few hours of qpf falls. Im sure it turns to rain after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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