February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[Jon]

Whoa I refreshed the page and some posts disappeared...

 

DT hyping a day 9 euro 50/50 low and extremely favorable -nao block that the euro just found has to be a red flag to most...I answered someone in one of the threads why we're not focusing on the day 9 storm and it's simply that, it's day 9...that pattern that drives that storm isn't even guaranteed. I mean we can't even figure out what the heck the storm that forms the 50/50 is going to do, why would we know it's placement and strength 9 days from now? I would wait until this storm passes for the 50/50 low to be better modeled and see where this thing ends up aka day 5 or so.

[jmundie]

Whoa I refreshed the page and some posts disappeared...

 

DT hyping a day 9 euro 50/50 low and extremely favorable -nao block that the euro just found has to be a red flag to most...I answered someone in one of the threads why we're not focusing on the day 9 storm and it's simply that, it's day 9...that pattern that drives that storm isn't even guaranteed. I mean we can't even figure out what the heck the storm that forms the 50/50 is going to do, why would we know it's placement and strength 9 days from now? I would wait until this storm passes for the 50/50 low to be better modeled and see where this thing ends up aka day 5 or so.

Exactly this - when the euro and GFS had a beast storm in the southeast at hour 192. There was a 50/50 low that slowed down the flow and caused this weekends trough to dig and go negative earlier.

 

Unfortunately for all of us, that 50/50 low, that was supposed to come from the midweek system, was formed by the first cold front early this week and the midweek system got shunted out to sea. Which meant the 50/50 low was gone by now. Which meant no storm.

[franklin NCwx]

Anyone wanna guess which model took away the favorable Greenland Block and 50/50 low that it had been showing? Wow, totally didn't see that one coming.

ensembles held serve

[Coach B]

DT hyping a day 9 euro 50/50 low and extremely favorable -nao block that the euro just found has to be a red flag to most

 

I agree with your post.  However, in fairness to DT he gave examples of both hits and misses picked up by the Euro at 9-10 days this winter.  He also emphasized that the 50/50 low and NAO block had to hold in order for the storm not to cut to the lakes.

[Subtropics]

You might get it all at once.  It will melt the next day and you can begin your next 3 year wait. Averages are funny that way. 

DC is supposed to average about 15'' a year and in the past 2 years we are averaging 2'' a year. I think when you live in the south it really is feast or famine especially in this new climate regime.

[eyewall]

A little wild card for tomorrow night:

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...POLAR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAYNIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THEMID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INTENSEUPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH.ALL THE MODELS GENERATE AT LEAST LIGHT ANAFRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THENORTHERN TIER FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH THEUKMET...GFS AND CANADIAN IN THE STRONGEST AND WETTEST MODELENVELOPE PRODUCING TWO TO THREE TENTHS ACROSS THE NORTH.THIS LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME P-TYPE CONCERNS WITHTHE WETTER SOLUTIONS SHOWING SATURATION IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREELAYER...SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA WITHA SMALL PROBABILITY FOR A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IF THERE ISENOUGH PRECIPITATION AT A SUFFICIENT RATE(BANDING PRECIP)TO OVERCOMETHE SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LOW LAYER...WHICH IS A DEFINITEPOSSIBILITY GIVEN THE VIGOR OF THE AMPLIFYING VORT MAX AND IMPRESSIVEJET KINEMATICS.IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE HOWEVER THAT BOTH THE NAM AND EC ARESIGNIFICANTLY DRIER...SUGGESTING NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHSACROSS THE THE AREA. ALSO HINDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW WILL BEDIURNAL TIMING WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT(LOWS INTHE MID TO UPPER 30S)AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THELOW 40S NORTH WEST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EVEN IN THENORTHWEST...WHATEVER LIGHT SNOW WE MAY GET WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCEFOR ACCUMULATION. FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCEOF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM THE TRIANGLE WESTWARD AND ALL RAIN THROUGHTHE I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHERN TIERCOUNTIES FOR NOW. RAIN SHOULD END MOST PLACES BY 18Z BUT COULDLINGER THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY IN THE EAST. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TOBOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S.

[franklin NCwx]

DC is supposed to average about 15'' a year and in the past 2 years we are averaging 2'' a year. I think when you live in the south it really is feast or famine especially in this new climate regime.

and the years before that you got how much?

[Nraleigh]

Can someone interpret this map please... DT said about 5 minutes ago the ice storm cometh.  I cannot tell where, especially for RDU area.  Thanks!

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county180.gif

[Pilotwx]

Can someone interpret this map please... DT said about 5 minutes ago the ice storm cometh.  I cannot tell where, especially for RDU area.  Thanks!

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county180.gif

If you look @ the isobar lines you can see them banking up against the apps and you can see the flow is northeast which is a sign of cold air in the lower levels .

[jmundie]

We're in a heck of a snow drought in nashville proper. In the last decade, we've had one year in double digits for snowfall and one year with more than 2.2 inches of snow. 8 of the last ten years have had 2.2 or less snowfall. To get 8 more years like that it will take you all the way back to 37/38 winter. So in 65 years, there were 8 seasons with fewer than 2.2 inches of snow. And we've had 8 in the last ten years.

 

I don't want to believe in global warming - but seriously, something is different.

DC is supposed to average about 15'' a year and in the past 2 years we are averaging 2'' a year. I think when you live in the south it really is feast or famine especially in this new climate regime.

[Nraleigh]

If you look @ the isobar lines you can see them banking up against the apps and you can see the flow is northeast which is a sign of cold air in the lower levels .

Thanks

[rduwx]

0z gfs was interesting during the 2/22 time frame.  Not that it's showing anything for the SE.  

 

Rather than running that storm up into Chicago w/ a 50/50 and 1040 high up in Canada the gfs tonight was showing a hybrid-miller b type setup.  It has the storm transferring to the coast just north of Delmarva.

[Cold Rain]

I hate to say it, but the modeling in the LR looks pretty good once again. Blocking, hints of a split flow, high pressure in Canada, plenty of opportunities for systems rolling through. LR modeling hasn't been worth anything all year, but at least this morning, there looks to be a lot of potential.

[franklin NCwx]

I hate to say it, but the modeling in the LR looks pretty good once again. Blocking, hints of a split flow, high pressure in Canada, plenty of opportunities for systems rolling through. LR modeling hasn't been worth anything all year, but at least this morning, there looks to be a lot of potential.

The ensembles continue to lead the way with the west based block. Active Pacific wave train. Check out the gfs forecast for March! Calling Larry.

[WidreMann]

I hate to say it, but the modeling in the LR looks pretty good once again. Blocking, hints of a split flow, high pressure in Canada, plenty of opportunities for systems rolling through. LR modeling hasn't been worth anything all year, but at least this morning, there looks to be a lot of potential.

If it really pains you so much to say it, then just don't say it.

[CarolinaCrusher2000]

0z Euro is coming in way south on the 22nd. Many winter weather chances coming up. Life is good again.

[Cold Rain]

If it really pains you so much to say it, then just don't say it.

It really didn't hurt that much. Thought it was going to, but it didn't.

[superjames1992]

+PNA showing up on the 06z GFS Ensembles in the long-term...

 

 

West-based -NAO...

 

[griteater]

I hate to say it, but the modeling in the LR looks pretty good once again. Blocking, hints of a split flow, high pressure in Canada, plenty of opportunities for systems rolling through. LR modeling hasn't been worth anything all year, but at least this morning, there looks to be a lot of potential.

The ensembles continue to lead the way with the west based block. Active Pacific wave train. Check out the gfs forecast for March! Calling Larry.

 

The placement of the Pacific ridging is ugly though, keeping the trough axis too far west (over the Rockies / Great Basin).  With the -NAO, you'd like to see the ridging anomalies in the Pacific at least touching the U.S. west coast in order to get the storm track SE enough for Miller B's (even longer shot for Miller A's).  Size/Expanse of the -NAO blocking is obviously key too.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/?p=2122879

[franklin NCwx]

The placement of the Pacific ridging is ugly though, keeping the trough axis too far west (over the Rockies / Great Basin).  With the -NAO, you'd like to see the ridging anomalies in the Pacific at least touching the U.S. west coast in order to get the storm track SE enough for Miller B's (even longer shot for Miller A's).  Size/Expanse of the -NAO blocking is obviously key too.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/?p=2122879

I'm not too high on the two storms next week. Maybe a shot with the 2nd depending if some energy gets "left behind" in the southwest. Going into the following week, I think we have a few shots. As the nao moves more towards the Davis Strait/Hudson Bay area, and becomes more established.

[LovingGulfLows]

So when is Atlanta going to get in on the action? It seems we're always in between where the action always occurs. We're either too far east or too far west. Atlanta feels like one of the worst cities for winter weather to occur despite the fact that we are the highest elevated major city east of the Mississippi if my memory is correct. It's painful to see snow chances for everyone around us.

[SnowNiner]

The placement of the Pacific ridging is ugly though, keeping the trough axis too far west (over the Rockies / Great Basin).  With the -NAO, you'd like to see the ridging anomalies in the Pacific at least touching the U.S. west coast in order to get the storm track SE enough for Miller B's (even longer shot for Miller A's).  Size/Expanse of the -NAO blocking is obviously key too.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/?p=2122879

 

Yeah, I think we need an actual +PNA and moderate -NAO to get a good Miller A shot along with the cold.  It looks like we may get a good strong -NAO with a strong -PNA.  I think we thus stay cool, but just not cold enough and the storm track not south enough to get a snow storm.  Kinda how it's been all winter.  We have one thing, we don't have the other and vice versa. 

[calculus1]

Next Friday morning's *potential* ice storm still shows promise for the CAD side of the Apps.  These BL temps are so close to being something quite significant.

 

Here's the moisture and surface features at hour 168 followed by minimum temps for that same time period.  The frames before and after are also quite chilly and wet.  Of course WAA wins in the long run, but not before how much ice accumulates?

 

 

[tnweathernut]

It sure looks like the last part of Feb and the first part of March will be active.  Plenty of blocking showing up and a parade of systems.  Quite a shift south today on the Euro for the system at 168, and the one that follows it too. Could have a couple of opportunities (especially for the CAD areas) coming in the next two weeks.  It wouldn't take much to get the I-40 and north crowd into the game (west of the apps)
 

[GaWx]

So when is Atlanta going to get in on the action? It seems we're always in between where the action always occurs. We're either too far east or too far west. Atlanta feels like one of the worst cities for winter weather to occur despite the fact that we are the highest elevated major city east of the Mississippi if my memory is correct. It's painful to see snow chances for everyone around us.

 

 For something big at Atlanta, we generally need what's in your nickname along with cold enough air to the north.

[Tacoma]

It sure looks like the last part of Feb and the first part of March will be active.  Plenty of blocking showing up and a parade of systems.  Quite a shift south today on the Euro for the system at 168, and the one that follows it too. Could have a couple of opportunities (especially for the CAD areas) coming in the next two weeks.  It wouldn't take much to get the I-40 and north crowd into the game (west of the apps)

 

it doesn't look to far south right now does it?

[calculus1]

18Z GFS still showing signs of ice storm at 156 and 162 in CAD sections of NC.  Surface temps are so close to freezing.  Still interesting to watch unfold, but it may turn out to be another cold rain.

[FallsLake]

Indicies are looking good for at least one period in a couple of weeks where we have a positive PNA, negtive NAO, and a negative AO. Can't say we'll get a storm but if we're going to get a widespead SE storm this time period can be it. Of course we can still get winter weather in March but we then have to fight other factors.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[SnowNiner]

Wes from the Mid-Atlantic thinks the next few weeks will be interesting, FWIW.  Good blocking seems more and more likely.  Can we get the trough on the east coast? 

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39301-february-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread-part-2/page-30

[dsaur]

So when is Atlanta going to get in on the action? It seems we're always in between where the action always occurs. We're either too far east or too far west. Atlanta feels like one of the worst cities for winter weather to occur despite the fact that we are the highest elevated major city east of the Mississippi if my memory is correct. It's painful to see snow chances for everyone around us.

Like Larry said we need a gulf low crossing Fla and temps already in the 30's at least, with more cold coming in, to feel sure.  And even then you don't feel sure.  Always the waa is an issue this close to the storm, that's why it's nice to get a cold shot, have it relax enough to invite up a gulf low, then meet it with a reinforcing shot, then another behind that to freeze it down.  That's what I want.  These little snow/ip teases just make your parts turn blue   Just makes you wish you hadn't gotten worked up..sort of.  Well, at least until a day or two goes by...then you're glad you even had a chance to get blue parts, lol. 

  I'm getting too old to waste time on a few flurries.  I need bombs, lol.  This one just isn't cold enough.  It wouild make a nice first act, but the real rain coming in later doesn't seem to have the cold high we need , plus it's cutting.  When the maps show the 0 line in Fla shot after shot, and lows running across, we might catch one   T