February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[franklin NCwx]

I'm even curious to know if this year's super PAC had a hand in essentially making sure that the progged weak to neutral Nino never materialized this winter. I'm sure someone somewhere has that answer and chart.

***Edited to expound***

At the end of the day, I'll still be comfortable with resting on the basic ingredients for most winters: a solid -AO/-NAO relationship. But in future winters that have a good -AO/-NAO relationship, yet also feature a super charged PAC, that equation is worth nil.

now that we have entered the -pdo regime ninos will happen less. To answer your question yes, I think the pdo helped to stop the nino. Im sure gawx has a lot more info on this. I know that the great period of the 70's was from a -pdo/amo combo. The amo is currently warm. Hopefully that will change in a few years. But to your point on the Pacific. I think on a global scale it is the biggest driver of the weather on the planet. It is the largest body of water.

[LithiaWx]

18zgfs ensemble.....

That's pretty ugly for the SE. SE ridge and west coast trough. It does look like a southern Greenland block but the map sucks. -PNA>-NAO it seems.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

you are correct, both of those years were ninas. Imo the only reason we had a great first half of winter in 10/11 was because of the deeply negative nao. When we lost that in mid jan 11 is when the fun ended. I posted a chart earlier showing how dec 10 was the most negative pna dec in history. The nao was also deeply negative and centered over the davis straits which gave us our cold and snow. Since then the nao has been mostly positive in winter.

The fun was far from over after Mid Jan 11. We had snow in Georgia in Mid Feb !

[franklin NCwx]

The fun was far from over after Mid Jan 11. We had snow in Georgia in Mid Feb !

how much? I don't remember that. Was it a storm or just some flurries?

[GaWx]

how much? I don't remember that. Was it a storm or just some flurries?

 

It was a nice snow (at least for Atlanta standards since the median snowfall for the entire winter is only ~1") of 1.2" officially.

[dsaur]

18z keeps me in the ball park for colder than usual, but still didn't get colder.  Highs in the early morning of 45  low of 28,  and no sign of the 0 line getting deep into Ga. after.  Rain still showing though.  It'd be wonderful to see pop up afternoon thunder showers again this summer.  Sure hope this wetter feed of moisture persists.  No precip 'til Tues on 18z. but at least some virga showed up for the weekend   T

[dsaur]

1) At what amplitude does the MJO have the most influence on the pattern?

 

2) What other atmospheric variables, or configurations of those variables (like PNA, PDO, ENSO, NAO, etc.) mute or enhance the effects of the MJO?

 

3) What is the average state of the atmosphere that yields the average state of the temperature/precipitation profile in any given MJO phase?

 

There are so many factors that work together in subtle ways that we don't fully understand.  As we have seen, a -NAO and 50/50 combo is something we'd want, can be negated by a brutal Pacific.  Why has the Pacific been so bad?  The PDO alone?  At what point does that get overwhelmed by something else?

 

 I just watched a program that said we will be losing more than half our earth looking satellites over the next decade to fuel depletion.  Might never get the answers if we don't start looking with far away eyes again.  It was a depressing thought. T

[DaculaWeather]

Here's what I take away from this winter. 

 

Models can't be trusted

Teleconnection Indices can't be trusted

SSW's, even good ones, may or may not be helpful

MJO means nothing.

The SE ridge sucks

The Pacific sucks

 

The CFSv2 has sucked all winter as far as I'm concerned. I've saved images of what it was forecasting and none of it came to pass. All the negative AO's and NAO's didn't do diddly squat to change our weather. 

 

The only thing that's been consistent is the rain, something we all desperately needed. It's not often you get the amount of rain we got without major flooding, but drag it out over a week and mother nature makes it work.

 

We need to step back and review what was common over the last two winters, whatever "that" is, is our problem. Larry?

[rduwx]

Here's what I take away from this winter. 

 

Models can't be trusted

Teleconnection Indices can't be trusted

SSW's, even good ones, may or may not be helpful

MJO means nothing.

The SE ridge sucks

The Pacific sucks

 

The CFSv2 has sucked all winter as far as I'm concerned. I've saved images of what it was forecasting and none of it came to pass. All the negative AO's and NAO's didn't do diddly squat to change our weather. 

 

The only thing that's been consistent is the rain, something we all desperately needed. It's not often you get the amount of rain we got without major flooding, but drag it out over a week and mother nature makes it work.

 

We need to step back and review what was common over the last two winters, whatever "that" is, is our problem. Larry?

Crappy Pacific? I form that in a question because I'm not sure but it has been crap the past two winters.

[DaculaWeather]

Crappy because it's overpowered everything else. No other indices mattered except what the Pacific was doing. We get a big ridge out west, the next storm plows right though it. 

 

Everytime.

[WXinCanton]

this has been the worst stretch for winter weather, or lack there of, since I've moved to the ATL area.  That being said, I do realize I live in GA and winter weather is the exception and not the rule.  

 

As Dacula said, any forecast over 5 to 6 days is highly suspect.   The teleconnections have showed promise over and over again to have nothing come to fruition.  

 

 

That said, Im about ready for severe wx, shorts, flip flops and golf!

[Cold Rain]

Crappy because it's overpowered everything else. No other indices mattered except what the Pacific was doing. We get a big ridge out west, the next storm plows right though it.

Everytime.

I have not gone back and looked through every map this winter, but what you said seems to be the case. There have been so many storms coming in the northern branch, the PNA ridging gets continually beaten down and constant low pressure over the lakes has greatly disrupted cold air transport into the region. Bad stuff all around.

[Bevo]

Crappy Pacific. I form that in a question because I'm not say that because it has been crap the past two winters.

 

Fixed Your Post

 

Crappy because it's overpowered everything else. No other indices mattered except what the Pacific was doing. We get a big ridge out west, the next storm plows right though it. 

 

Everytime.

 

It seems we are finally realizing that it has been the dominant feature of the last 2 and 1/2 winters, nullifying any other arrangement of the indices.

[rduwx]

Fixed Your Post

 

 

100% correct...Thanks! :-)

[burgertime]

Fixed Your Post

 

 

It seems we are finally realizing that it has been the dominant feature of the last 2 and 1/2 winters, nullifying any other arrangement of the indices.

 

Hey I posted this last year

 

[Bevo]

Hey I posted this last year

 

Touche' - but in my defense, I stopped reading after the first week of January last year...it definitely still rings true.

[Brick Tamland]

Here's what I take away from this winter. 

 

Models can't be trusted

Teleconnection Indices can't be trusted

SSW's, even good ones, may or may not be helpful

MJO means nothing.

The SE ridge sucks

The Pacific sucks

 

The CFSv2 has sucked all winter as far as I'm concerned. I've saved images of what it was forecasting and none of it came to pass. All the negative AO's and NAO's didn't do diddly squat to change our weather. 

 

The only thing that's been consistent is the rain, something we all desperately needed. It's not often you get the amount of rain we got without major flooding, but drag it out over a week and mother nature makes it work.

 

We need to step back and review what was common over the last two winters, whatever "that" is, is our problem. Larry?

 

Really, people use all these things and say winter is favorable or not favorable around here depending on what has happened in the past. But when it comes down to it, I don't think we really know what will or what won't give us a good winter around here. Maybe it was just a coincidence in the past when this was positive, or that was negative, that we had a good snow, or the level was this or that. Or maybe the atmosphere is just changing and we're in a bad cycle right now. Whatever it is, I think when it comes to snow around here what will actually happen is pretty much just a guess, and sometimes someone is lucky and gets it right.

[Brick Tamland]

We don't need sustained cold to have a good winter storm in the SE.  In fact, oftentimes when the deep freezer on, we end up cold and dry.

 

Just think of all of the recent snowstorms we've had in the SE.  In most cases, we were quite warm during the preceding day(s) and in many cases there wasn't exactly sustained cold.

 

The winter of 99-2000 was like that. Then look what happened the last two weeks of Janaury. Of course, the rest of winter was awful. But it was even warm leading up to the week before the Carolina Crusher. We don't need arctic cold to have a good storm here. In fact, like you said, if it is that cold it is often just dry. We just need everything to come together right. The problem is it seems it is getting harder and harder for that to happen here, and since that winter our best chances of seeing a good storm have been in December and January.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

this has been the worst stretch for winter weather, or lack there of, since I've moved to the ATL area.  That being said, I do realize I live in GA and winter weather is the exception and not the rule.  

 

As Dacula said, any forecast over 5 to 6 days is highly suspect.   The teleconnections have showed promise over and over again to have nothing come to fruition.  

 

 

That said, Im about ready for severe wx, shorts, flip flops and golf!

Yes we live in GA, BUT we should see at least some snowfall every winter. Atlanta averages about 2" and you probably average close to 3" per winter.

[SnowNiner]

All I know is CLT is supposed to average almost 5 inches a year.  Next year then ma nature owes me 15 inches.  I'm just sayin...

[calculus1]

Nice damming signature showing up at hour 180 on the 12Z GFS, but it seems to move out quickly in the following frames.

 

[jburns]

All I know is CLT is supposed to average almost 5 inches a year.  Next year then ma nature owes me 15 inches.  I'm just sayin...

 

You might get it all at once.  It will melt the next day and you can begin your next 3 year wait. Averages are funny that way. 

[tarheelwx]

HP looked to be holidng tough in previous frames, but with the low that strong out in the midwest......  DT made the statement in his video that if the blocking is there as the models are showing, there is no way the low goes into Chicago.  So, certainly something to watch.  Haven't had a good ice storm in years!

TW

[Snowless in Carrollton]

HP looked to be holidng tough in previous frames, but with the low that strong out in the midwest......  DT made the statement in his video that if the blocking is there as the models are showing, there is no way the low goes into Chicago.  So, certainly something to watch.  Haven't had a good ice storm in years!

TW

How common are ice storms in NC in Late February and March ?

[tarheelwx]

How common are ice storms in NC in Late February and March ?

Not as common as a bit earlier in the winter, but still reasonably possible.  The set up for next week seems decent.

TW

[HKY_WX]

I'm generally very skeptical about ice after mid-february, but the extended gfs/euro are both very close to an icestorm setup in the extended Day 8 to 9. Will be interesting to watch as we get closer.

[Southern Track]

I think you will see that storm track shift southeastward significantly next week. That would be if that west based NAO is legit.

[calculus1]

How common are ice storms in NC in Late February and March ?

 

Here's what I've found since 2000 off of the Raleigh NWS site.  Of course, I don't think they have itemized every single storm over that time period, but I could be wrong.

 

 

 

 

[Cold Rain]

HP looked to be holidng tough in previous frames, but with the low that strong out in the midwest...... DT made the statement in his video that if the blocking is there as the models are showing, there is no way the low goes into Chicago. So, certainly something to watch. Haven't had a good ice storm in years!

TW

The problem on the GFS, if you look around 192 and after is that the -NAO block is not of the right magnitude or configuration to lock in the 50/50 and effectively promote the suppression of the incoming system. If the blocking is stronger and stays longer than the GFS is showing (which is possible), then it's a different story. The blocking on the Euro is better and the 50/50 holds better.

So far this winter, we haven't have sufficient blocking. Maybe it will be better this time. It had better be, or this is another rainstorm.

[Cold Rain]

Anyone wanna guess which model took away the favorable Greenland Block and 50/50 low that it had been showing? Wow, totally didn't see that one coming.