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February Pattern and Storm Discussion

POWERSTROKE

By POWERSTROKE,
in Southeastern States

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted 
TODAY:000NOUS42 KNHC 101734REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1230 PM EST SUN 10 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)         VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-072I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS    1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49--       A. P10/ DROP 6 (45.0N 159.0W)/ 12/0000Z       B NOAA9 08WSC TRACK10       C. 11/1900Z       D. 13 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 12/0600Z    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE       A. P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z$$JWP

 

DAY 2

 

 

000NOUS42 KNHC 111611REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1110 AM EST MON 11 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)         VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-073I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS    1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49--       A. P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z       B  NOAA9 09WSC TRACK23       C. 12/1900Z       D. 18 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 13/0600Z    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE       A. P9/ DROP 7 / 14/0000Z    3. REMARKS: TRACK P10 WILL BE FLOWN TODAY AS       DETAILED ON WSPOD 12-072.$$JWP
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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

There is a pretty nice -NAO signature developing in the long range on the Euro.  At the same time, the Pacific looks to completely fall apart, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something sneak in at a lower latitude and amplify or even close off somewhere in the southeast.  It will be something to watch once past this upcoming weekend.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Don't look now but the new Euro is slower and stronger with the vort max, still flurries for most but a decent little snow in the eastern Carolinas

 

 

This goes right along with what I have been thinking that part of NC is still in the game with this thing.  Good luck to you guys/gals on the other side of the "hill".  I am rooting for you.

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ColdRainsStr8cashhomey

ColdRainsStr8cashhomey

Posted
Posted

 

 Major league hyperbole. I did an analysis of the 11 major (3.5"+) S/IP's at KATL since 1974, which is as far back as the MJO phase data goes. Almost all of these were also major S/IP's in a large portion of the inland SE US. I bolded notable major SE winter storms that were in the "bad" phases.

 

-1/9-10/2011: MJO started 6 and moved to 5

-2/12/2010: MJO 8

-3/1/2009: MJO 4

-1/2-3/2002: MJO 7-8

-3/13/1993: MJO 4

-1/18/1992: MJO 8

-1/17/1988: MJO 2

-1/22/1987: MJO 3

-3/24/1983: MJO COD

-1/12-14/1982: MJO COD

-2/17-18/1979: MJO started 3 and moved to COD

 

So, what do we have? I'll call the "good" phases 7, 8, 1, and 2. I'll call the "bad" phases 3-6. Others have too small an amplitude and are in the circle of death (COD).

 

good phases (7/8/1/2): four of the eleven major S/IP's

bad phases (3/4/5/6): 4 1/2 of the eleven major S/IP's

 

(Aside: Carolina Crusher of late Jan. 2000, which was a major ZR but not a major S/IP at Atlanta, was when MJO was within the COD)

 

Conclusions:

 

1) Pretty small (at best) overall correlation between MJO phases and the chance at a major SE winter storm. To say otherwise would be major hyperbole. The hard data is right here.

 

2) Those assuming that a move toward phase 4 during the first half of March, should it actually occur, would take away the chance for a major winter storm in early March can just look at this list and say that's total BS. The two early March major ATL S/IP's since 1974 were both during phase 4! Now, to be sure, I'm not saying phase 4 during early March would necessarily increase the chance for a major S/IP then. However, I am saying that if it were to be in/near phase 4 then, it wouldn't diminish the chances.

 

3)  So, in other words, to those who give so much weight to the MJO as regards major SE winter storm chances, where's the beef? I'll answer that..there is no beef!

 

MJO Data from here:

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

 

 

 

Hugging the MJO as the be-all & end-all to getting snow in the south is a dangerous game.  I'm glad I don't waste my time with it.  We have much more of a chance of cold and dry suppression in the so-called correct phases.

 

Larry, thanks for your info and putting this into perspective.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Hugging the MJO as the be-all & end-all to getting snow in the south is a dangerous game.  I'm glad I don't waste my time with it.  We have much more of a chance of cold and dry suppression in the so-called correct phases.

 

Larry, thanks for your info and putting this into perspective.

 

 To you (and the others who responded similarly in the other thread): you're welcome.

 

 One more storm I can add that wasn't a major S/IP in Atlanta (snow not heavy enough there):

 

2/26-7/2004 major, and in some cases, huge snow for much of the Carolinas: MJO phase 5, one of the "bad" phases..so still another major SE snow that was during one of the "bad" MJO phases, thus suggesting very little correlation between MJO phase and chance of a major SE US winter storm

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

 To you (and the others who responded similarly in the other thread): you're welcome.

 

 One more storm I can add that wasn't a major S/IP in Atlanta (snow not heavy enough there):

 

2/26-7/2004 major, and in some cases, huge snow for much of the Carolinas: MJO phase 5, one of the "bad" phases

Huge is an understatement. Picked up 17 and some folks saw right at 20. Thanks for your stats. I had no Idea MJO was 5 during that time and really I grow colder by the day in gaining any confidence from a telecon.. standpoint in regards to MJO phases. IMO seems to be more productive to work with the pac signals first then trend toward the NAO/AO , strat e.t.c. to guess about the LR pattern.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 To you (and the others who responded similarly in the other thread): you're welcome.

 

 One more storm I can add that wasn't a major S/IP in Atlanta (snow not heavy enough there):

 

2/26-7/2004 major, and in some cases, huge snow for much of the Carolinas: MJO phase 5, one of the "bad" phases..so still another major SE snow that was during one of the "bad" MJO phases, thus suggesting very little correlation between MJO phase and chance of a major SE US winter storm

 

 I decided to add the MJO phases for the 5"+ S/IP's at RDU since 1974 that weren't already covered:

 

-12/25-6/2010: phase 5

-1/29-30/2010: phase 7

-1/6-7/1996: COD

-2/17-8/1989: COD

-2/27/1987: phase 7

-2/16-7/1987: COD

-2/5-6/1984: phase 3

-3/1-2/1980: COD

 

"Good" MJO phases: two storms

"Bad" MJO phases: two storms

COD: four storms

 

 So, this group of additional major snows at RDU continues the theme of very little correlation between MJO phase and major SE US S/IP.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 Grand tally for all 21 major KATL (3.5"+) and KRDU (5"+) S/IP's since 1974:

 

"Good" phases (7/8/1/2): 6 storms

"Bad" phases (3/4/5/6):  7.5 storms

COD: 7.5 storms

 

 So, very little correlation of MJO phase and major KATL/KRDU S/IP's since 1974.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Larry, thanks for the info. Hopefully this will work out in March as the mjo will be in the "bad" phases by then. What did the weeklies show last night?

Thanks

 

You're welcome. Regarding the Euro weeklies, don't ask lol. They were not pleasant to view. The good news is that they have been wavering so much. The prior run for the same time period was cold.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

It looks like we are headed towards a -nao -pna pattern. For the lasr five days the ensembles guidance has continued to advertise a -nao. This time the signal continues to grow stronger as we get closer instead of being pushed back and eventually losing the signal altogether. The op euro is the most bullish on it bringing it down to 4 std below normal. Hopefully we can get a repeay of dec 2010. That was a -nao/pna pattern.

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

A closer look and I think the 00z gfs puts over .75 qpf over the cad regions of NC and pretty much keeps them below freezing during the event.  Forget, PD storm. Our focus should be on late next week. -nao, strong cold hp blocking in to the north, and good moist lp trying to move out of the lower MS valley.  Looks pretty classic to me.

TW

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HKY18

HKY18

Posted
Posted

Looks like there will be two more events following the PD weekend storm. First which is in the 150-180hr time frame, which looks like a cutter or an apps runner, then after truncation there's the 21-23 threat which to me will be our best chance at a sig event in the month of FEB. 9T6X9nk.gif

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

A closer look and I think the 00z gfs puts over .75 qpf over the cad regions of NC and pretty much keeps them below freezing during the event.  Forget, PD storm. Our focus should be on late next week. -nao, strong cold hp blocking in to the north, and good moist lp trying to move out of the lower MS valley.  Looks pretty classic to me.

TW

Only because it's 10 days out. How many times are we supposed to dance to the same tune?
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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Only because it's 10 days out. How many times are we supposed to dance to the same tune?

 

Until it's impossible (although I guess you could say it already is the way it has been going).

 

You know everyone is desperate when the best anyone can do is post 7 plus day out fantasy maps and actually discuss it like it has any chance. God this winter sucks (other than the rain)

 

...then tropical phantoms start showing up 10 days out.

 

:lmao:

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

I feel we may actually have a chance late next week.  With the nao going pretty strongly negative, I think that will allow a high to build in and with blocking force low pressure more to the south than what is currently shown.  It may be more of a classic southeast mess - snow to ice, ice to rain for some, etc.  I know in decades past, we would often get a storm as the nao flipped from negative to positive.  This might be our time.

 

TW

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