DaculaWeather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 TODAY:000NOUS42 KNHC 101734REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1230 PM EST SUN 10 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-072I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49-- A. P10/ DROP 6 (45.0N 159.0W)/ 12/0000Z B NOAA9 08WSC TRACK10 C. 11/1900Z D. 13 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 12/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE A. P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z$$JWP DAY 2 000NOUS42 KNHC 111611REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1110 AM EST MON 11 FEBRUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-073I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49-- A. P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z B NOAA9 09WSC TRACK23 C. 12/1900Z D. 18 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 13/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE A. P9/ DROP 7 / 14/0000Z 3. REMARKS: TRACK P10 WILL BE FLOWN TODAY AS DETAILED ON WSPOD 12-072.$$JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There is a pretty nice -NAO signature developing in the long range on the Euro. At the same time, the Pacific looks to completely fall apart, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something sneak in at a lower latitude and amplify or even close off somewhere in the southeast. It will be something to watch once past this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 During the next couple of weeks; PNA looks to go slight negative, NAO goes negative, and the AO is all over the place but averages still negative. I think our problem will be the PNA. We might get other favorable indicies and still have this kill the day (..or can I say winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Don't look now but the new Euro is slower and stronger with the vort max, still flurries for most but a decent little snow in the eastern Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Don't look now but the new Euro is slower and stronger with the vort max, still flurries for most but a decent little snow in the eastern Carolinas This goes right along with what I have been thinking that part of NC is still in the game with this thing. Good luck to you guys/gals on the other side of the "hill". I am rooting for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Major league hyperbole. I did an analysis of the 11 major (3.5"+) S/IP's at KATL since 1974, which is as far back as the MJO phase data goes. Almost all of these were also major S/IP's in a large portion of the inland SE US. I bolded notable major SE winter storms that were in the "bad" phases. -1/9-10/2011: MJO started 6 and moved to 5 -2/12/2010: MJO 8 -3/1/2009: MJO 4 -1/2-3/2002: MJO 7-8 -3/13/1993: MJO 4 -1/18/1992: MJO 8 -1/17/1988: MJO 2 -1/22/1987: MJO 3 -3/24/1983: MJO COD -1/12-14/1982: MJO COD -2/17-18/1979: MJO started 3 and moved to COD So, what do we have? I'll call the "good" phases 7, 8, 1, and 2. I'll call the "bad" phases 3-6. Others have too small an amplitude and are in the circle of death (COD). good phases (7/8/1/2): four of the eleven major S/IP's bad phases (3/4/5/6): 4 1/2 of the eleven major S/IP's (Aside: Carolina Crusher of late Jan. 2000, which was a major ZR but not a major S/IP at Atlanta, was when MJO was within the COD) Conclusions: 1) Pretty small (at best) overall correlation between MJO phases and the chance at a major SE winter storm. To say otherwise would be major hyperbole. The hard data is right here. 2) Those assuming that a move toward phase 4 during the first half of March, should it actually occur, would take away the chance for a major winter storm in early March can just look at this list and say that's total BS. The two early March major ATL S/IP's since 1974 were both during phase 4! Now, to be sure, I'm not saying phase 4 during early March would necessarily increase the chance for a major S/IP then. However, I am saying that if it were to be in/near phase 4 then, it wouldn't diminish the chances. 3) So, in other words, to those who give so much weight to the MJO as regards major SE winter storm chances, where's the beef? I'll answer that..there is no beef! MJO Data from here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Hugging the MJO as the be-all & end-all to getting snow in the south is a dangerous game. I'm glad I don't waste my time with it. We have much more of a chance of cold and dry suppression in the so-called correct phases. Larry, thanks for your info and putting this into perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hugging the MJO as the be-all & end-all to getting snow in the south is a dangerous game. I'm glad I don't waste my time with it. We have much more of a chance of cold and dry suppression in the so-called correct phases. Larry, thanks for your info and putting this into perspective. To you (and the others who responded similarly in the other thread): you're welcome. One more storm I can add that wasn't a major S/IP in Atlanta (snow not heavy enough there): 2/26-7/2004 major, and in some cases, huge snow for much of the Carolinas: MJO phase 5, one of the "bad" phases..so still another major SE snow that was during one of the "bad" MJO phases, thus suggesting very little correlation between MJO phase and chance of a major SE US winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 To you (and the others who responded similarly in the other thread): you're welcome. One more storm I can add that wasn't a major S/IP in Atlanta (snow not heavy enough there): 2/26-7/2004 major, and in some cases, huge snow for much of the Carolinas: MJO phase 5, one of the "bad" phases Huge is an understatement. Picked up 17 and some folks saw right at 20. Thanks for your stats. I had no Idea MJO was 5 during that time and really I grow colder by the day in gaining any confidence from a telecon.. standpoint in regards to MJO phases. IMO seems to be more productive to work with the pac signals first then trend toward the NAO/AO , strat e.t.c. to guess about the LR pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC Snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Don't look now but the new Euro is slower and stronger with the vort max, still flurries for most but a decent little snow in the eastern Carolinas Are you able to post maps?... Thanks! If not, I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just for interest the 18Z NAM has come in colder for tomorrows system. 850s would indicate some light snow possible in north NC; but surface temps will probably kill anything making it down to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeah, verbatim, surface temps are in the 40s, it appears. Oh, well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Any thoughts on the Euro showing the nao going pretty strong negative? Will this block any of the cutters in the 6-10 day range and give the southeast a shot at something? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 To you (and the others who responded similarly in the other thread): you're welcome. One more storm I can add that wasn't a major S/IP in Atlanta (snow not heavy enough there): 2/26-7/2004 major, and in some cases, huge snow for much of the Carolinas: MJO phase 5, one of the "bad" phases..so still another major SE snow that was during one of the "bad" MJO phases, thus suggesting very little correlation between MJO phase and chance of a major SE US winter storm I decided to add the MJO phases for the 5"+ S/IP's at RDU since 1974 that weren't already covered: -12/25-6/2010: phase 5 -1/29-30/2010: phase 7 -1/6-7/1996: COD -2/17-8/1989: COD -2/27/1987: phase 7 -2/16-7/1987: COD -2/5-6/1984: phase 3 -3/1-2/1980: COD "Good" MJO phases: two storms "Bad" MJO phases: two storms COD: four storms So, this group of additional major snows at RDU continues the theme of very little correlation between MJO phase and major SE US S/IP. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Grand tally for all 21 major KATL (3.5"+) and KRDU (5"+) S/IP's since 1974: "Good" phases (7/8/1/2): 6 storms "Bad" phases (3/4/5/6): 7.5 storms COD: 7.5 storms So, very little correlation of MJO phase and major KATL/KRDU S/IP's since 1974. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Larry, thanks for the info. Hopefully this will work out in March as the mjo will be in the "bad" phases by then. What did the weeklies show last night? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Larry, thanks for the info. Hopefully this will work out in March as the mjo will be in the "bad" phases by then. What did the weeklies show last night? Thanks You're welcome. Regarding the Euro weeklies, don't ask lol. They were not pleasant to view. The good news is that they have been wavering so much. The prior run for the same time period was cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It looks like we are headed towards a -nao -pna pattern. For the lasr five days the ensembles guidance has continued to advertise a -nao. This time the signal continues to grow stronger as we get closer instead of being pushed back and eventually losing the signal altogether. The op euro is the most bullish on it bringing it down to 4 std below normal. Hopefully we can get a repeay of dec 2010. That was a -nao/pna pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The event Feb 21-22 will be a good one I think. At least good in the form of ice and some snow. GFS actually looks like a pretty good ice storm to me. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 A closer look and I think the 00z gfs puts over .75 qpf over the cad regions of NC and pretty much keeps them below freezing during the event. Forget, PD storm. Our focus should be on late next week. -nao, strong cold hp blocking in to the north, and good moist lp trying to move out of the lower MS valley. Looks pretty classic to me. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks like there will be two more events following the PD weekend storm. First which is in the 150-180hr time frame, which looks like a cutter or an apps runner, then after truncation there's the 21-23 threat which to me will be our best chance at a sig event in the month of FEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 A closer look and I think the 00z gfs puts over .75 qpf over the cad regions of NC and pretty much keeps them below freezing during the event. Forget, PD storm. Our focus should be on late next week. -nao, strong cold hp blocking in to the north, and good moist lp trying to move out of the lower MS valley. Looks pretty classic to me. TW Only because it's 10 days out. How many times are we supposed to dance to the same tune? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Only because it's 10 days out. How many times are we supposed to dance to the same tune? Until spring arrives. Well y'all got till April to here that apparently. Maybe something will come by next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Until spring arrives. Well y'all got till April to here that apparently. Maybe something will come by next winter....then tropical phantoms start showing up 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Only because it's 10 days out. How many times are we supposed to dance to the same tune? Until it's impossible (although I guess you could say it already is the way it has been going). You know everyone is desperate when the best anyone can do is post 7 plus day out fantasy maps and actually discuss it like it has any chance. God this winter sucks (other than the rain) ...then tropical phantoms start showing up 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 - NAO ..........FTW. Last gasp Feb. opportunity for the southern apps around the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 - NAO ..........FTW. Last gasp Feb. opportunity for the southern apps around the 22nd. I agree, now just waiting for this trof to trend east too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 - NAO ..........FTW. Last gasp Feb. opportunity for the southern apps around the 22nd. I have been looking for this all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I feel we may actually have a chance late next week. With the nao going pretty strongly negative, I think that will allow a high to build in and with blocking force low pressure more to the south than what is currently shown. It may be more of a classic southeast mess - snow to ice, ice to rain for some, etc. I know in decades past, we would often get a storm as the nao flipped from negative to positive. This might be our time. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The GFS continues it's tease in the LR...it might actually be on to something given the support of a -NAO regime coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The GFS continues it's tease in the LR...it might actually be on to something given the support of a -NAO regime coming. The GFS is such a tease. It never locks in that 50/50 mid week. If it did, that would be great for next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just 336 hours away folks! What away to end February! A foot of snow over Burger's house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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