NavarreDon Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GSP's afternoon for the weekend: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST DURING THE MEDIUMRANGE WILL BE THE BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE THAT IS EXPECTED DURING THEWEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THENORTHERN PLAINS CARVE OUT A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERNCONUS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA IN THEFRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACEIN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THATTHIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITHWHICH TO INTERACT. HOWEVER...THE SERIES OF /CLIPPER/ SHORT WAVETROUGHS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) OVERTHE MTNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BECARRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT LIGHTPRECIP COULD PENETRATE INTO THE PIEDMONT AS WELL...SO LOW POPS WILLEXTEND INTO THESE AREAS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPSOVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE BOOKENDED BY NEAR CLIMO TEMPS...AS THEGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL BE QUITEPROGRESSIVE...EXITING THE EAST COAST BY DAY 7. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 As you mention, very transient shot of cold, though. Nothing locking in. It's hard enough to get winter weather with sustained cold -- to get it with this kind of passing shot is really a needle-threader. Day 10 Euro map not very promising (much like LR 12z GFS). Atlantic ridiging way to far east; Pacific looks crappy; and, to make matters worse, our old friend the SE ridge has reappeared. Those Masters promos are getting larger in the window .... A tradition unlike any other, snowless SE winters, on CBS sports. Seems to me the big thing is having both the biggies holding onto the cold we've been promised for two years now. Of course, it's moderating, but it's still 850's under 0. I say let's start small and build up. If it gets cold this weekend, then anything could happen, I expect. Let's just find some true cold for a start, and not another Tenn./NC sideswipe. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Guys don't lambaste me for this I know it's the 84 hr NAM but does it look on the 500 panel that it has more of a digging look to it compared to 12Z GFS at the same timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I will be watching that 500mb pattern closely but it may end up that in order to see snow a drive to VA will be required. The emotional side of me says if this fails it may be over. THat is not really based in any true science of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Anybody got the weeklies yet? I see the euro ensembles continue to point to a -nao bet the weeklies continue with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 LOL notice how there is no problem if it takes the Bypasses The Northeast track We don't count in the South, apparently. I'm pretty sure that lower track would cause some major disruptions in the South. Also, their northern track up I-95 would mean rain for the entire I-95 corridor. Their maps rarely ever make sense, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We don't count in the South, apparently. I'm pretty sure that lower track would cause some major disruptions in the South. Also, their northern track up I-95 would mean rain for the entire I-95 corridor. Their maps rarely ever make sense, though. lol I was thinking the same thing. Even just an inch in the south can cause major headaches. Their track would more than likely be a doozy but we also assume they think it would be a big cranking low...they probably just think of it as a weak low if it takes that track as opposed to the other track which would really wind it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 lol I was thinking the same thing. Even just an inch in the south can cause major headaches. Their track would more than likely be a doozy but we also assume they think it would be a big cranking low...they probably just think of it as a weak low if it takes that track as opposed to the other track which would really wind it up. Yeah, that's true about them thinking it may be weaker and just slide out to sea. BTW, the 18z GFS is slamming the NYC/NJ area with this V-Day Storm. It's a bit closer to the coast and stronger, which may lead to a nice run down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Less ridging out west on 18z GFS at 84 hours -- might not bode well .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 A lot of different places/sources should be adding snow for NC in the forecast soon since some of them weigh the GFS output heavy. (Weather.com) still has it for me. Wunderground probably won't because they are trying something new with their 'best forecast' algorithms. Accuweather certainly has the storm just not in the text forecast grids. would the lower track not spell snow for nc, sc, ga and even the upper track could be snow for e tenn and wnc. with the cold in place. I guess we don't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Less ridging and everything shifted east a bit at 93 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Trying to drop some energy into the trough at 102, but still looks more like 12z than 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well hello 18z GFS. Let's see where this go. That vort out west is a little stronger at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At 111, looking better than 12z. Little diggier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Oh, wow, big improvements. Weenie run upcoming! Snow across East TX, N LA, AR at hr 111. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is a good run for MS and AL...hard to tell if it can really do anything down the line to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That energy is cranking up @123...let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 h5 looks about a million times better this run. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Digs to the gulf this run. More energy at the base of the trough too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 5h level maps look in between 6z and 12z run. Tilt not as good as 6z, but definitely more dig than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Look at her dig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The 6z at 132 hours (120 on the 18z) there was already a closed 850 low -- not quite there yet on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Boom over WNC @129! Good run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great run for WNC. Not an explosive run, but much better. h5 looks GREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is gonna be 3-6 or 4-8 across much of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nice 850 closed low at 129 just east of CLT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Wowwww Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 hello! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Probably 4-6"+ for much of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 .50 all snow falls across almost all of NC on this run. Can we please make 18z the solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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