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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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GSP's afternoon for the weekend:

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE WILL BE THE BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE THAT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS CARVE OUT A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH
WHICH TO INTERACT. HOWEVER...THE SERIES OF /CLIPPER/ SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW) OVER
THE MTNS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
CARRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT LIGHT
PRECIP COULD PENETRATE INTO THE PIEDMONT AS WELL...SO LOW POPS WILL
EXTEND INTO THESE AREAS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE BOOKENDED BY NEAR CLIMO TEMPS...AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL BE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE...EXITING THE EAST COAST BY DAY 7.

-- End Changed Discussion --



 

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As you mention, very transient shot of cold, though. Nothing locking in. It's hard enough to get winter weather with sustained cold -- to get it with this kind of passing shot is really a needle-threader.

 

Day 10 Euro map not very promising (much like LR 12z GFS). Atlantic ridiging way to far east; Pacific looks crappy; and, to make matters worse, our old friend the SE ridge has reappeared.

 

Those Masters promos are getting larger in the window ....

 

A tradition unlike any other, snowless SE winters, on CBS sports.

 

Seems to me the big thing is having both the biggies holding onto the cold we've been promised for two years now.  Of course, it's moderating, but it's still 850's under 0.  I say let's start small and build up.  If it gets cold this weekend, then anything could happen, I expect.  Let's just find some  true cold for a start, and not another Tenn./NC sideswipe.  T

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I will be watching that 500mb pattern closely but it may end up that in order to see snow a drive to VA will be required. The emotional side of  me says if this fails it may be over. THat is not really based in any true science of course.

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LOL notice how there is no problem if it takes the Bypasses The Northeast track ;)

 

We don't count in the South, apparently.  I'm pretty sure that lower track would cause some major disruptions in the South.

 

Also, their northern track up I-95 would mean rain for the entire I-95 corridor.  Their maps rarely ever make sense, though.

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We don't count in the South, apparently.  I'm pretty sure that lower track would cause some major disruptions in the South.

 

Also, their northern track up I-95 would mean rain for the entire I-95 corridor.  Their maps rarely ever make sense, though.

 

lol I was thinking the same thing. Even just an inch in the south can cause major headaches. Their track would more than likely be a doozy but we also assume they think it would be a big cranking low...they probably just think of it as a weak low if it takes that track as opposed to the other track which would really wind it up. 

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lol I was thinking the same thing. Even just an inch in the south can cause major headaches. Their track would more than likely be a doozy but we also assume they think it would be a big cranking low...they probably just think of it as a weak low if it takes that track as opposed to the other track which would really wind it up. 

 

Yeah, that's true about them thinking it may be weaker and just slide out to sea.

 

BTW, the 18z GFS is slamming the NYC/NJ area with this V-Day Storm.  It's a bit closer to the coast and stronger, which may lead to a nice run down the road.

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A lot of different places/sources should be adding snow for NC in the forecast soon since some of them weigh the GFS output heavy. (Weather.com) still has it for me. Wunderground probably won't because they are trying something new with their 'best forecast' algorithms. 

 

Accuweather certainly has the storm just not in the text forecast grids.  :axe:

590x393_02111753_weekendscenarios.jpg

would the lower track not spell snow for nc, sc, ga and even the upper track could be snow for e tenn and wnc.  with the cold in place.  I guess we don't count

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