Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Hey, I'm finally in the Wake Co., bullseye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Nothing but wish crafting here sir That's not really an acceptable response. Why am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 That's not really an acceptable response. Why am I wrong? Maybe he meant you were using witchcraft to get the soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Still a huge battle going on in the ensemble world. Gfs, cmc, and the naefs all want to build ridgeing in alaska while the euro is not on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Euro is best in 5-7 day range. Beyond 7 it has been average. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 You're not going to get sn showers in N/GA with those surface temps Epic fail. We have snow showers moving into Adairsville and the tornado did not blow us out of NGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Optimistic someone in the northern coastal plain sees a quick dusting to inch tonight. Euro has been pretty consistent with a thermal profile that supports mainly SN here, ratios could be >1:10 given temps aloft also. 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 V Day storm right on cue on 12z gfs. Has some potential TW Edit - make that lots of potential. Thereafter as well. Nice strong hp coming in over the n plains and upper midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 From coastalwx in the new england thread. " the euro ensembles have moved towards the gefs with building a ridge over Alaska although not as bullish" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 12z gfs ensembles look great for the middle of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 That Valentine's Day Storm really excites me. The GFS has been pretty damn consistent with it for quite a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yes and another just a few days later and a bit colder and further south Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Long range is interesting. The current pattern is also good IMO. This is skiing weather and building up snow pack nearby. The mountains have seen like 5+ back to back winter weather events on a Friday. Will they see back to back clippers on Saturdays? Probably not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 12z GFS gives the western half of NC the Big Dog following the Valentine's Day Storm at hr 372. Verbatim, it's probably a foot of snow here. Verbatim... Now that we have fantasy Superstorms showing up on the LR GFS again, all is right with the world!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 12z GFS gives the western half of NC the Big Dog following the Valentine's Day Storm at hr 372. Verbatim, it's probably a foot of snow here. Verbatim... Now that we have fantasy Superstorms showing up on the LR GFS again, all is right with the world!!! Yes, and I wish you all luck. It does look interesting. If you all can throw just a little of that mojo about 400 miles south, I'll be forever indebted. Grits, hushpuppies, catfish and slaw for all in the SE crew in that event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The GFS does look very interesting in the LR and if we can get the flip then sure the sky is the limit. The Valentines Day storm has always looked more like a FROPA on the models not to mention it's 288 hours away. Truncation is building it to a Noah like flood and probably missing the timing of the cold by bringing it on too fast. Euro is also looking interesting out in LR with the over all pattern...a big cold front sweeping across the country at 210. Maybe this is when we can finally cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Euro looks like cad at 192. Any precip there? Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Euro looks like cad at 192. Any precip there? Tw There is probably about .20 over 6 hours then it scoots away. Verbatim it would be ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Goes to poop after 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yes, and I wish you all luck. It does look interesting. If you all can throw just a little of that mojo about 400 miles south, I'll be forever indebted. Grits, hushpuppies, catfish and slaw for all in the SE crew in that event! Count me in! For the storm and the menu, excellent choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 woo hoo what a surprise (habersham cty ga). its snowing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Count me in! For the storm and the menu, excellent choice. Here's a bonus- Give me February 11 - 15, 1899 and I'll toss in baked beans and beer (and it will be good beer)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The GFS does look very interesting in the LR and if we can get the flip then sure the sky is the limit. The Valentines Day storm has always looked more like a FROPA on the models not to mention it's 288 hours away. Truncation is building it to a Noah like flood and probably missing the timing of the cold by bringing it on too fast. Euro is also looking interesting out in LR with the over all pattern...a big cold front sweeping across the country at 210. Maybe this is when we can finally cash in. Burger, I've been watching the GFS LR for the past few days and it is indeed interesting...and we've all been burned by it at that range for the past two winters. However, it is February and last year, if I recall correctly, the GFS showed almost zero cold in the LR for February. The GFS sniffed out the warm pattern this past December and it seems to be on to something here. I'll wait a couple of more days before getting too hyped...but it does not look bad at all. MJO looks to be doing its work as well. It would seem, as Robert has stated, that the pattern might hold at least one good storm for someone in the East. Remember how a few days ago the pattern looked awful and now it's tolerable at worst. The models in the LR have been about as bad as I can remember. On this occasion, it could just be more bad modeling...but like late November it could be on to something. Something makes me think winter might have one more card up its sleeve...at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Epic fail. We have snow showers moving into Adairsville and the tornado did not blow us out of NGA. Cheston's getting snow and sleet in the 40's! There's hope for us all, lol. It's 55 now, so I calculate that if the rain holds off, if it gets here at all, I might get to the low 40;'s by 8 or so. Wahoo!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 WoW. Its in the upper 40's and there are a few sloppy snowflakes with the light rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Burger, I've been watching the GFS LR for the past few days and it is indeed interesting...and we've all been burned by it at that range for the past two winters. However, it is February and last year, if I recall correctly, the GFS showed almost zero cold in the LR for February. The GFS sniffed out the warm pattern this past December and it seems to be on to something here. I'll wait a couple of more days before getting too hyped...but it does not look bad at all. MJO looks to be doing its work as well. It would seem, as Robert has stated, that the pattern might hold at least one good storm for someone in the East. Remember how a few days ago the pattern looked awful and now it's tolerable at worst. The models in the LR have been about as bad as I can remember. On this occasion, it could just be more bad modeling...but like late November it could be on to something. Something makes me think winter might have one more card up its sleeve...at least. i have been onto a change on or around the 10th and am hopeful it comes to fruition. I know there are some mets (and amateurs) that have seemingly already thrown in the towel, but I think the MJO is going to do the heavy lifting for us. The GFS is adamant about a good look, and the GGEM ensembles agree. I just wish the EURO was on board (though to be fair, even the Euro is trending in a better direction). Time will tell, but I think we have some wild swings this month just looking at the wavelengths and the operationals "in general" as well as the ensembles. Sure, some will strike out, but I think others will almost certainly cash in. I can see the possiblity of split flow with cold "enough" air bleeding into it. Should be an interesting month Good luck everyone and if you have thrown in the towel don't blink (that's how quickly we could have something coming at us from the 10th on forward) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 WoW. Its in the upper 40's and there are a few sloppy snowflakes with the light rain here. Yeah, saw some a little bit ago. My streak continues of seeing at least a couple flakes every year since I moved to north metro ATL in 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Some reports on Facebook, it's snowing in Easley SC. That's upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 WoW. Its in the upper 40's and there are a few sloppy snowflakes with the light rain here. Nice! Not totally surprising since your 850 is near 0C and the 850 0 C line is near the N Atl, burbs. I still have seen no precip. here in Dunwoody. I stil haven't seen a single flake or pellet in three years lol. Hoping that's about to change today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 00z and 12z euro show nao going negative Ina few days and maybe going deeper TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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