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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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12z GFS gives the western half of NC the Big Dog following the Valentine's Day Storm at hr 372.
 
Verbatim, it's probably a foot of snow here.  Verbatim...
 
gfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
 
Now that we have fantasy Superstorms showing up on the LR GFS again, all is right with the world!!!

 

Yes, and I wish you all luck. It does look interesting.

 

If you all can throw just a little of that mojo about 400 miles south, I'll be forever indebted. Grits, hushpuppies, catfish and slaw for all in the SE crew in that event!

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The GFS does look very interesting in the LR and if we can get the flip then sure the sky is the limit. The Valentines Day storm has always looked more like a FROPA on the models not to mention it's 288 hours away. Truncation is building it to a Noah like flood and probably missing the timing of the cold by bringing it on too fast. Euro is also looking interesting out in LR with the over all pattern...a big cold front sweeping across the country at 210. Maybe this is when we can finally cash in.

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The GFS does look very interesting in the LR and if we can get the flip then sure the sky is the limit. The Valentines Day storm has always looked more like a FROPA on the models not to mention it's 288 hours away. Truncation is building it to a Noah like flood and probably missing the timing of the cold by bringing it on too fast. Euro is also looking interesting out in LR with the over all pattern...a big cold front sweeping across the country at 210. Maybe this is when we can finally cash in.

 

Burger, I've been watching the GFS LR for the past few days and it is indeed interesting...and we've all been burned by it at that range for the past two winters.   However, it is February and last year, if I recall correctly, the GFS showed almost zero cold in the LR for February.  The GFS sniffed out the warm pattern this past December and it seems to be on to something here.  I'll wait a couple of more days before getting too hyped...but it does not look bad at all.  MJO looks to be doing its work as well.  It would seem, as Robert has stated, that the pattern might hold at least one good storm for someone in the East.  Remember how a few days ago the pattern looked awful and now it's tolerable at worst.  The models in the LR have been about as bad as I can remember.  On this occasion, it could just be more bad modeling...but like late November it could be on to something.  Something makes me think winter might have one more card up its sleeve...at least.

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Epic fail.  We have snow showers moving into Adairsville and the tornado did not blow us out of NGA.

Cheston's getting snow and sleet in the 40's!  There's hope for us all, lol. It's 55 now, so I calculate that if the rain holds off, if it gets here at all, I might get to the low 40;'s by 8 or so.  Wahoo!!   T

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Burger, I've been watching the GFS LR for the past few days and it is indeed interesting...and we've all been burned by it at that range for the past two winters.   However, it is February and last year, if I recall correctly, the GFS showed almost zero cold in the LR for February.  The GFS sniffed out the warm pattern this past December and it seems to be on to something here.  I'll wait a couple of more days before getting too hyped...but it does not look bad at all.  MJO looks to be doing its work as well.  It would seem, as Robert has stated, that the pattern might hold at least one good storm for someone in the East.  Remember how a few days ago the pattern looked awful and now it's tolerable at worst.  The models in the LR have been about as bad as I can remember.  On this occasion, it could just be more bad modeling...but like late November it could be on to something.  Something makes me think winter might have one more card up its sleeve...at least.

i have been onto a change on or around the 10th and am hopeful it comes to fruition. I know there are some mets (and amateurs) that have seemingly already thrown in the towel, but I think the MJO is going to do the heavy lifting for us.  The GFS is adamant about a good look, and the GGEM ensembles agree.  I just wish the EURO was on board (though to be fair, even the Euro is trending in a better direction). 

 

Time will tell, but I think we have some wild swings this month just looking at the wavelengths and the operationals "in general" as well as the ensembles.  Sure, some will strike out, but I think others will almost certainly cash in.  I can see the possiblity of split flow with cold "enough" air bleeding into it. 

 

Should be an interesting month  Good luck everyone and if you have thrown in the towel don't blink (that's how quickly we could have something coming at us from the 10th on forward)

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WoW. Its in the upper 40's and there are a few sloppy snowflakes with the light rain here.

 

Nice! Not totally surprising since your 850 is near 0C and the 850 0 C line is near the N Atl, burbs. I still have seen no precip. here in Dunwoody. I stil haven't seen a single flake or pellet in three years lol. Hoping that's about to change today!

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