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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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Euro- just very cold with flurry/snow shower potential as the strong trough digs right over us but no real snow storm. It does show the potential for flurries down into NE Florida and the coasts of the Carolinas. Too positively tilted for any real LP to develop though.

 

Hey, that would be something, but to my untrained eye, I'm not seeing a cause and effect on this run. Can you educate me?

 

Thanks!

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With the pattern being controlled by the -PDO and fast progression of weak storms, I think we just need to write this winter off and prepare for a very (unfortunately) active severe weather season this Spring. Looks to me like we will be going into another La Nina sometime this summer so it doesn't look very promising for next winter either although things could change. As for summer in the South this year, Oy Vey

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Check out what DT just posted on FB about the UKMET.

 

 
‎** ALERT ** 12z BRITISH MODEL ( UKMET) GOES BOOOOM! WITH MAJOR ..if not Historic .. East coast winter storm FEB 16 -17

this MODEL says ... and ALL of the data -- says that COLD AIR even over VA NC will NOT be the main issue of Uncertainty. the cold air will be in place POSSIBLY even over eastern NC ...

the issue will be WHERE does the LOW on the coast form. THIS model would bring major snow from NC to Maine
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I'm surprised DT mentioned th UK Met. That model loves to over do storms. It seems like the UK Met is always blowing up a storm.

to be fair the euro has been doing this for the past two years. This weekend storm might be a repeat of the storm upcoming on the 13/14 the euro has been consistently showing a flat ots wave while the other models have been more amped. The euro just went to that idea as well. This could work out for you guys.
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Any info on the UK Met?  It shows a 1000 mb SLP just off the NC coast at hr 120 and then crushes New England (again...) with a 979 mb storm at hr 144 as it rumbles over Cape Cod.

 

EDIT: Doh!  Turner posted before me, ha.

 

The bad news is that the UKMet hasn't really scored the coup on any storms this winter that I can think of. As always this will probably come down to the wire. 

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The bad news is that the UKMet hasn't really scored the coup on any storms this winter that I can think of. As always this will probably come down to the wire. 

 

 

I'm not sure any model has scored a coup this year...lol!!

 

In all honesty, I hardly ever look at the UKMet, but I guess it has just as good a shot of getting it right than any other model.  I'm sure someone can show the verification scores of the models?!?!?

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The last 2 runs of the GFS and now the 12z Euro have shown frigid cold and light accumulations of snow in east TN for Saturday night.  GFS has it getting down to 15-20 degrees with a wind chill as low as 5.  Euro has about a half inch of snow, GFS 1 to 2+ inches (12z and 06z respectively).  I'm getting more confident that we'll have some flakes flying around here this weekend.  Would love to have a bigger storm but I'll take what I can get.

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I'm not sure any model has scored a coup this year...lol!!

 

In all honesty, I hardly ever look at the UKMet, but I guess it has just as good a shot of getting it right than any other model.  I'm sure someone can show the verification scores of the models?!?!?

 

The Ukie is the #2-scoring model in the Northern Hemisphere after the Euro at day 5 and day 6.  Of course, that doesn't speak to how it handles certain types of storms, but from what I remember in the past the Ukie is usually the #2-verifying model behind the Euro, though it's usually neck-and-neck with the GFS.

 

Honestly, the Euro, UK Met, and GFS all verify pretty freaking good and are certainly on another level than the Canadian (mid-tier) and the NOGAPS (way down there, haha).  Unfortunately, finding free UK Met maps is usually pretty hard.  The Euro has more free stuff for it these days.

 

acz5.gif

 

acz6.gif

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I'm not sure any model has scored a coup this year...lol!!

 

In all honesty, I hardly ever look at the UKMet, but I guess it has just as good a shot of getting it right than any other model.  I'm sure someone can show the verification scores of the models?!?!?

 

 

Ha true that. From what has always been said on the board the UKMet actually does well with situations where phases and complicated phases are involved. 

 

The Ukie is the #2-scoring model in the Northern Hemisphere after the Euro at day 5 and day 6.  Of course, that doesn't speak to how it handles certain types of storms, but from what I remember in the past the Ukie is usually the #2-verifying model behind the Euro, though it's usually neck-and-neck with the GFS.

 

Yea it always scores well...I guess what I meant was that when it's showing the opposite of what the other models are it hasn't really won out. Of course GFS is close, Euro was sorta close and CMC is a totally different solution all together. We might as well pull out the ColdRainStr8ghtCashhomey dart board and see what lands.

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Check this out from Ryan Maue.. He says places like Atlanta and Macon, GA have a decent shot at seeing some snow with this weekend system! He just mentioned this on his Twitter feed.

 

A lot of different places/sources should be adding snow for NC in the forecast soon since some of them weigh the GFS output heavy. (Weather.com) still has it for me. Wunderground probably won't because they are trying something new with their 'best forecast' algorithms. 

 

Accuweather certainly has the storm just not in the text forecast grids.  :axe:

590x393_02111753_weekendscenarios.jpg

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A lot of different places/sources should be adding snow for NC in the forecast soon since some of them weigh the GFS output heavy. (Weather.com) still has it for me. Wunderground probably won't because they are trying something new with their 'best forecast' algorithms. 

 

Accuweather certainly has the storm just not in the text forecast grids.  :axe:

590x393_02111753_weekendscenarios.jpg

 

LOL notice how there is no problem if it takes the Bypasses The Northeast track ;)

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Seems to me the big thing is having both the biggies holding onto the cold we've been promised for two years now.  Of course, it's moderating, but it's still 850's under 0.  I say let's start small and build up.  If it gets cold this weekend, then anything could happen, I expect.  Let's just find some  true cold for a start, and not another Tenn./NC sideswipe.  T

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