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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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We need a met for some analysis here -- pretty unconventional solution.

 

 

yep, I don't buy the surface reflection on this based on the energy at 500mb... it should be drier

 

the kicker system coming in on the west coast and the only adequate ridging east of it (ridge needs to be taller allowing our system to dig)... our system can't dig and spin up a banafide surface low

 

I don't see this system trending any better for the south

 

setup should trend drier

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yep, I don't buy the surface reflection on this based on the energy at 500mb... it should be drier

 

also, based on the kicker system coming in on the west coast and the adequate ridge east of it not being any taller not allowing our system to dig, I don't see this system trending any better for the south

 

should trend drier

 

Well that's some salt in the wound. Not buying this one?

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Well that's some salt in the wound. Not buying this one?

 

 

when the upper levels don't agree with the surface reflection, then a red flag goes up

 

still, the model may be picking up on just enough divergence from some sort of jet streak to spit out some flurries

 

look at where the surface low is... WAY out east and much of GA/SC is under some northerly flow while back-end snow flurries are coming down

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when the upper levels don't agree with the surface reflection, then a red flag goes up

still, the model may be picking up on just enough divergence from some sort of jet streak to spit out some flurries

look at where the surface low is... WAY out east and much of GA/SC is under some northerly flow while back-end snow flurries are coming down

its funny how a kicker always shows up when you don't need one.
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when the upper levels don't agree with the surface reflection, then a red flag goes up

 

still, the model may be picking up on just enough divergence from some sort of jet streak to spit out some flurries

 

look at where the surface low is... WAY out east and much of GA/SC is under some northerly flow while back-end snow flurries are coming down

 

Gotcha. Thanks for the edumacation. 

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when the upper levels don't agree with the surface reflection, then a red flag goes up

 

still, the model may be picking up on just enough divergence from some sort of jet streak to spit out some flurries

 

look at where the surface low is... WAY out east and much of GA/SC is under some northerly flow while back-end snow flurries are coming down

same here, was hoping we were on to something.  if this is what your thinking is then I can pretty much write it off.  Oh well we had a little excitement.  Thanks

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its funny how a kicker always shows up when you don't need one.

 

yep, the pacific systems coming in on short wavelengths (no spacing) aren't helping things at all

 

we need a tall ridge out west to allow trofs to dig... instead that ridging tends to get even more shallow as the game gets closer

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Gotcha. Thanks for the edumacation. 

 

oops, meant to say "if we take a look at where the surface low is" in a recent post

 

I don't even want any of my posts to look like I'm trying to edumacate anyone :) ... we're all here for some good conversation and tracking these things

 

here's to hoping that somehow our trof can trend sharper and dig a little more, but crazy uncle CMC sending an Apps runner is kinda comical

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What is going to happen is that an area of convection moving along the Gulf coast states, that the models aren't really picking up on yet, through latent heat release is going to create a cyclonic potential vorticity max that will help to spin up an area of low pressure a little farther south than progged, which will instantly occlude with the H5 energy dropping in from the northern branch. Set condition 1-SQ for strategic snowstorm launch.

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yep, the pacific systems coming in on short wavelengths are doing us no favor

 

we need a tall ridge out west to allow trofs to dig... instead that ridging tends to get even more shallow as the game gets closer

 

Strongly agree...the progressive flow of the pacific this winter has been a killer...not to mention the lack of blocking...that's why I have been so pessimistic all winter and rightfully so...where have you been the past couple of weeks?  :)

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What is going to happen is that an area of convection moving along the Gulf coast states, that the models aren't really picking up on yet, through latent heat release is going to create a cyclonic potential vorticity max that will help to spin up an area of low pressure a little farther south than progged, which will instantly occlude with the H5 energy dropping in from the northern branch. Set condition 1-SQ for strategic snowstorm launch.

 

:clap: you are a treasure to this board

 

I don't even think people realize how lucky they are to have you

 

I appreciate you

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Strongly agree...the progressive flow of the pacific this winter has been a killer...not to mention the lack of blocking...that's why I have been so pessimistic all winter and rightfully so...where have you been the past couple of weeks?  :)

 

been in a cave hiding out waiting for a projection of a blockbuster SLP to b*mb out in south Georgia along with -3C to -6C at 850-temps lying in northern SC ready to poodle-choke the Carolinas with snow...

 

yet, that has not happened

 

I will never forget the sure thing of seeing the -5C to -6C isotherms at 850mb prior to the storm on January 10th, 2011... we need that sort of NO DOUBTER to happen again

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LOL...same here!  Where's our 2-3 feet of snow?  :)

 

Maybe we can thread the needle with this trough and squeeze out some snow showers with this trough next weekend and pick up a couple of inches...here's to hoping that Cold Rain's prediction pans out and we get a 2000 epic model fail snowstorm :)

been in a cave hiding out waiting for a projection of a blockbuster SLP to b*mb out in south Georgia along with -3C to -6C at 850-temps lying in northern SC ready to poodle-choke the Carolinas with snow...

 

yet, that has not happened

 

I will never forget the sure thing of seeing the -5C to -6C isotherms at 5000ft prior to the storm on January 10th, 2011... we need that sort of NO DOUBTER to happen again

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yep, the pacific systems coming in on short wavelengths (no spacing) aren't helping things at all

 

we need a tall ridge out west to allow trofs to dig... instead that ridging tends to get even more shallow as the game gets closer

 

This has been the problem for 2 straight winters.  I don't see anything to change this either.  This has been and still is the TRUE pattern.  I have no doubt that it is the sole reason models have struggled with winter for two seasons now.

 

***Edited for clarity:

 

Every time we see and/or talk about pattern change, I don't believe we're talking about *actual pattern change - if that makes sense.  The PAC has been the actual pattern since February 2011 - a pattern which has not changed, and in my opinion, remains the only genuine pattern in play. 

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BTW, wrt to the amount of energy in the northern stream (all these shortwaves that keep moving the flow along), is that a function of the -PDO? Because we really haven't gotten a break from that all Winter, as evidenced by the number of times low pressure keeps moving through the Lakes.

 

looks like PDO is (at least partly) the culprit of the short wavelengths

 

speaking of the PDO, this is humbling:  "Causes for the PDO are not currently known. Likewise, the potential predictability for this climate oscillation are not known."

 

source:  http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

 

goes to show just how much we have yet to understand

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looks like PDO is (at least partly) the culprit of the short wavelengths

speaking of the PDO, this is humbling: "Causes for the PDO are not currently known. Likewise, the potential predictability for this climate oscillation are not known."

source: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

goes to show just how much we have yet to understand

Thanks! I posted an image the other day that showed exactly what you were describing above... system after system after system moving through, keeping the wavelengths too short.

On another note, time to fire up the Euro, Burger. Show us some good stuff here. :)

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What do you make of the solution the GFS just spit out? 

 

Nothing surprising actually I felt the 6z GFS was out to lunch...storms lay down snow south of the original snow pack not on top of it. 12z GFS corrected itself and boom back to a better solution. 

 

However, I believe the storm producing the half a foot of snow in Oklahoma needs to get out of view first before the track/qpf can be taken more seriously. 

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Nothing surprising actually I felt the 6z GFS was out to lunch...storms lay down snow south of the original snow pack not on top of it. 12z GFS corrected itself and boom back to a better solution.

However, I believe the storm producing the half a foot of snow in Oklahoma needs to get out of view first before the track/qpf can be taken more seriously.

This is exactly what Widre was talking about the other day. He didn't list a specific example, but this is one. Why does the OK storm have to get out of the way before any subsequent systems get taken more seriously?

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