Tacoma Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At this range too far east is a very good thing. I agree, storms seem to trend north and west a little with time. more so than south and east. I think the cold will be here all weekend, so that isn't a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At this range too far east is a very good thing. I actually like this weekend system for central NC and points east and north. I think this one definitely has potential for you guys. Good luck to everyone over that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Sorry that was last nights run. Here is 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I agree, storms seem to trend north and west a little with time. more so than south and east. We have a chance of being left cold and dry on this one while everthing developes too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We have a chance of being left cold and dry on this one while everthing developes too late for us. well maybe the euro will show something and it will be fun to watch all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 LOL -- 12z Canadian an Apps runner. Everything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We need a met for some analysis here -- pretty unconventional solution. yep, I don't buy the surface reflection on this based on the energy at 500mb... it should be drier the kicker system coming in on the west coast and the only adequate ridging east of it (ridge needs to be taller allowing our system to dig)... our system can't dig and spin up a banafide surface low I don't see this system trending any better for the south setup should trend drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Sorry that was last nights run. Here is 12z today. I would def. take my chances with that. It has it blowing up to a 979 low in the NE...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yep, I don't buy the surface reflection on this based on the energy at 500mb... it should be drier also, based on the kicker system coming in on the west coast and the adequate ridge east of it not being any taller not allowing our system to dig, I don't see this system trending any better for the south should trend drier Well that's some salt in the wound. Not buying this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well that's some salt in the wound. Not buying this one? when the upper levels don't agree with the surface reflection, then a red flag goes up still, the model may be picking up on just enough divergence from some sort of jet streak to spit out some flurries look at where the surface low is... WAY out east and much of GA/SC is under some northerly flow while back-end snow flurries are coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm not buying the GFS solution either and think with it's historical bias, it will trend so far West and North that only Va in our area has a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm not buying the GFS solution either and think with it's historical bias, it will trend so far West and North that only Va in our area has a shot This year that really has not been it's trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 when the upper levels don't agree with the surface reflection, then a red flag goes up still, the model may be picking up on just enough divergence from some sort of jet streak to spit out some flurries look at where the surface low is... WAY out east and much of GA/SC is under some northerly flow while back-end snow flurries are coming down its funny how a kicker always shows up when you don't need one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 when the upper levels don't agree with the surface reflection, then a red flag goes up still, the model may be picking up on just enough divergence from some sort of jet streak to spit out some flurries look at where the surface low is... WAY out east and much of GA/SC is under some northerly flow while back-end snow flurries are coming down Gotcha. Thanks for the edumacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 when the upper levels don't agree with the surface reflection, then a red flag goes up still, the model may be picking up on just enough divergence from some sort of jet streak to spit out some flurries look at where the surface low is... WAY out east and much of GA/SC is under some northerly flow while back-end snow flurries are coming down same here, was hoping we were on to something. if this is what your thinking is then I can pretty much write it off. Oh well we had a little excitement. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 its funny how a kicker always shows up when you don't need one. yep, the pacific systems coming in on short wavelengths (no spacing) aren't helping things at all we need a tall ridge out west to allow trofs to dig... instead that ridging tends to get even more shallow as the game gets closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gotcha. Thanks for the edumacation. oops, meant to say "if we take a look at where the surface low is" in a recent post I don't even want any of my posts to look like I'm trying to edumacate anyone ... we're all here for some good conversation and tracking these things here's to hoping that somehow our trof can trend sharper and dig a little more, but crazy uncle CMC sending an Apps runner is kinda comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What is going to happen is that an area of convection moving along the Gulf coast states, that the models aren't really picking up on yet, through latent heat release is going to create a cyclonic potential vorticity max that will help to spin up an area of low pressure a little farther south than progged, which will instantly occlude with the H5 energy dropping in from the northern branch. Set condition 1-SQ for strategic snowstorm launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yep, the pacific systems coming in on short wavelengths are doing us no favor we need a tall ridge out west to allow trofs to dig... instead that ridging tends to get even more shallow as the game gets closer Strongly agree...the progressive flow of the pacific this winter has been a killer...not to mention the lack of blocking...that's why I have been so pessimistic all winter and rightfully so...where have you been the past couple of weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What is going to happen is that an area of convection moving along the Gulf coast states, that the models aren't really picking up on yet, through latent heat release is going to create a cyclonic potential vorticity max that will help to spin up an area of low pressure a little farther south than progged, which will instantly occlude with the H5 energy dropping in from the northern branch. Set condition 1-SQ for strategic snowstorm launch. you are a treasure to this board I don't even think people realize how lucky they are to have you I appreciate you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 you are a treasure to this board I don't even think people realize how lucky they are to have you I appreciate you Lol. Surely, that couldn't happen two times inside of 15 years......could it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Strongly agree...the progressive flow of the pacific this winter has been a killer...not to mention the lack of blocking...that's why I have been so pessimistic all winter and rightfully so...where have you been the past couple of weeks? been in a cave hiding out waiting for a projection of a blockbuster SLP to b*mb out in south Georgia along with -3C to -6C at 850-temps lying in northern SC ready to poodle-choke the Carolinas with snow... yet, that has not happened I will never forget the sure thing of seeing the -5C to -6C isotherms at 850mb prior to the storm on January 10th, 2011... we need that sort of NO DOUBTER to happen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 BTW, wrt to the amount of energy in the northern stream (all these shortwaves that keep moving the flow along), is that a function of the -PDO? Because we really haven't gotten a break from that all Winter, as evidenced by the number of times low pressure keeps moving through the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 LOL...same here! Where's our 2-3 feet of snow? Maybe we can thread the needle with this trough and squeeze out some snow showers with this trough next weekend and pick up a couple of inches...here's to hoping that Cold Rain's prediction pans out and we get a 2000 epic model fail snowstorm been in a cave hiding out waiting for a projection of a blockbuster SLP to b*mb out in south Georgia along with -3C to -6C at 850-temps lying in northern SC ready to poodle-choke the Carolinas with snow... yet, that has not happened I will never forget the sure thing of seeing the -5C to -6C isotherms at 5000ft prior to the storm on January 10th, 2011... we need that sort of NO DOUBTER to happen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yep, the pacific systems coming in on short wavelengths (no spacing) aren't helping things at all we need a tall ridge out west to allow trofs to dig... instead that ridging tends to get even more shallow as the game gets closer This has been the problem for 2 straight winters. I don't see anything to change this either. This has been and still is the TRUE pattern. I have no doubt that it is the sole reason models have struggled with winter for two seasons now. ***Edited for clarity: Every time we see and/or talk about pattern change, I don't believe we're talking about *actual pattern change - if that makes sense. The PAC has been the actual pattern since February 2011 - a pattern which has not changed, and in my opinion, remains the only genuine pattern in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 BTW, wrt to the amount of energy in the northern stream (all these shortwaves that keep moving the flow along), is that a function of the -PDO? Because we really haven't gotten a break from that all Winter, as evidenced by the number of times low pressure keeps moving through the Lakes. looks like PDO is (at least partly) the culprit of the short wavelengths speaking of the PDO, this is humbling: "Causes for the PDO are not currently known. Likewise, the potential predictability for this climate oscillation are not known." source: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/ goes to show just how much we have yet to understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 looks like PDO is (at least partly) the culprit of the short wavelengths speaking of the PDO, this is humbling: "Causes for the PDO are not currently known. Likewise, the potential predictability for this climate oscillation are not known." source: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/ goes to show just how much we have yet to understand Thanks! I posted an image the other day that showed exactly what you were describing above... system after system after system moving through, keeping the wavelengths too short. On another note, time to fire up the Euro, Burger. Show us some good stuff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What do you make of the solution the GFS just spit out? Nothing surprising actually I felt the 6z GFS was out to lunch...storms lay down snow south of the original snow pack not on top of it. 12z GFS corrected itself and boom back to a better solution. However, I believe the storm producing the half a foot of snow in Oklahoma needs to get out of view first before the track/qpf can be taken more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nothing surprising actually I felt the 6z GFS was out to lunch...storms lay down snow south of the original snow pack not on top of it. 12z GFS corrected itself and boom back to a better solution. However, I believe the storm producing the half a foot of snow in Oklahoma needs to get out of view first before the track/qpf can be taken more seriously. This is exactly what Widre was talking about the other day. He didn't list a specific example, but this is one. Why does the OK storm have to get out of the way before any subsequent systems get taken more seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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