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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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12z GFS says: if it doesn't happen next weekend, it may not happen. Series of Lakes/Apps cutters and limited cold air source through the end of February.

 

I wouldn't sweat out the details much beyond 144hrs on ANY LR model. They all have been flip-flopping around more than a fish out of water in the long term. I think the problem is the fast flow and multiple disturbances. 

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XTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1101 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013

VALID 12Z THU FEB 14 2013 - 12Z MON FEB 18 2013

MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION DAYS

3-7/THU-MON...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FORMING NEAR THE

MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST

COAST. HOWEVER...MODEL DETAILS INCLUDING THE ANTICIPATED

TIMING/STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE MORE UNCLEAR

THAN USUAL DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF TROUGHS/RIDGES AND APPARENT

SENSITIVITY TO THE FLOW CROSSING JAPAN THAT RESEMBLES A ROSSBY

WAVE PACKET...BOTH OF WHICH CONTAIN ENOUGH ERROR THAT IS DIFFICULT

FOR EVEN THE HIGHEST-RESOLVING ENSEMBLES TO ADDRESS...AND ARE

CONFIRMED BY THE HIGHER THAN USUAL SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH THE

ENTIRE PERIOD. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY-TO-DAY SENSIBLE

WEATHER IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

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