Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This looks close to something here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This one is very close boys and girls. It phases...now the problem is that trailing norther energy. If that could time just right this could be a big dog for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 by 132 snow in WNC and snow close to the ATL region of GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hey Burger how are ya? I was just about to say the same thing this is making me cautiously excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 @135 light snow across Piedmont of NC heavier in northern NC and VA...light snow across GA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Congrats VA @138...if we can get this all to phase a little sooner this could be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks like it's gonna be a VA special on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Odd solution. Precip field doesn't seem to match surface features. Looks like 850 low wants to pop at 132, but not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This gonna be a tough one...in GA from ATL south probably an inch to two inches....most of NC 1-3 and VA probably 3 - 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This one is very close boys and girls. It phases...now the problem is that trailing norther energy. If that could time just right this could be a big dog for the east coast. The problem for many is that it would probably phase too late for anyone but the eastern Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Needs to dig more for areas farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We need a met for some analysis here -- pretty unconventional solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 In NC GSO to RDU north is probably 2-4 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We need a met for some analysis here -- pretty unconventional solution. yea def. looks odd...the bad thing is the Euro last night showed nothing like the last few runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The problem for many is that it would probably phase too late for anyone but the eastern Carolinasits better than the weekend runs. We j ust need this whole thing to dig a little more and that second piece of energy to drop in and phase about 18 hours earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The ONLY thing we need to take away from this run is that there is a legitimate storm to track, with a range of possibilities on the table. Very good news IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yea def. looks odd...the bad thing is the Euro last night showed nothing like the last few runs of the GFS.its also different at 72 hours for the vday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Congrats VA @138...if we can get this all to phase a little sooner this could be big. Yeah, VA and NE, I already punted rest of winter, I am rooting for a miss now! :-))) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This gonna be a tough one...in GA from ATL south probably an inch to two inches....most of NC 1-3 and VA probably 3 - 6 Burger... your disco has made my day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 SV snow maps give a very narrow swath of 2-4 around GSO and north with 4-8 in VA. Points all around this swath including CLT, HKY and RDU have nothing....but take away from this is the GFS might be sniffing something out...or it could totally be out to lunch. I would love to see what the UKMet says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Burger... your disco has made my day! QPF is very light, but you would think it could squeeze an inch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's a nice start! But I expect to see a low crossing Fla by Wed Big thing at this stage is the cold is still there. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GFS says: if it doesn't happen next weekend, it may not happen. Series of Lakes/Apps cutters and limited cold air source through the end of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GFS says: if it doesn't happen next weekend, it may not happen. Series of Lakes/Apps cutters and limited cold air source through the end of February. I wouldn't sweat out the details much beyond 144hrs on ANY LR model. They all have been flip-flopping around more than a fish out of water in the long term. I think the problem is the fast flow and multiple disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 XTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1101 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013 VALID 12Z THU FEB 14 2013 - 12Z MON FEB 18 2013 MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION DAYS 3-7/THU-MON...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FORMING NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHILE PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...MODEL DETAILS INCLUDING THE ANTICIPATED TIMING/STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE MORE UNCLEAR THAN USUAL DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF TROUGHS/RIDGES AND APPARENT SENSITIVITY TO THE FLOW CROSSING JAPAN THAT RESEMBLES A ROSSBY WAVE PACKET...BOTH OF WHICH CONTAIN ENOUGH ERROR THAT IS DIFFICULT FOR EVEN THE HIGHEST-RESOLVING ENSEMBLES TO ADDRESS...AND ARE CONFIRMED BY THE HIGHER THAN USUAL SOLUTION SPREAD THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY-TO-DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I wouldn't sweat out the details much beyond 144hrs on ANY LR model. They all have been flip-flopping around more than a fish out of water in the long term. I think the problem is the fast flow and multiple disturbances. What do you make of the solution the GFS just spit out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ukmet is improved but still too far east for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At this range too far east is a very good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Good to see something on the gfs but I have to admit, I sure would like to see something along these lines on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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