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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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Well, it's good to see something back in the picture again after some terrible runs earlier today.  We'll see what the Doc and others have to say tonight, but it's encouraging to me.

 

The NAM may be the real winner with the V-Day system.  It's been pretty consistent for awhile with a Apps Runner/Miller B-type system while the other modeling has been waffling here and there.  The GFS definitely trended towards the NAM tonight.

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:lmao:

 

I think the big issue is timing...we kind of get our wish with that cold air but it's such a press it's gonna squash anything out side of a little frontal moisture...of course if we can get the phase :whistle:

I just don't believe that in a pattern with an active subtropical stream as we head towards spring that we won't get something out of this pattern. Our problem in late February is almost never lack of precipitation. That's more typical of January. I think that if we have cold air around, we'll have some sort of wintry event.

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Good run,the 0z isnt no longer putting out the 850's to S/FL,also,that would be doomsday almost for the SE.We really want this trailing system to dig more in the OV and further W,we are almost close to a triple phase

I see three pieces of energy but the timing isn't close and I also don't think that would be a triple phase even if all three pieces interacted with one another. Jmo.

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Have heard many say that the models become unsettled after a big storm goes through. Have they had enough time to calm down and could that be the reason the GFS is picking up some energy again? Or do they need more time to catch the trend? I've got three weeks of a community theater group in for a show. Should I be nervous about next week-end?

Edit: Sorry that is a little weenie..ish ...

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Have heard many say that the models become unsettled after a big storm goes through. Have they had enough time to calm down and could that be the reason the GFS is picking up some energy again? Or do they need more time to catch the trend? I've got three weeks of a community theater group in for a show. Should I be nervous about next week-end? Edit: Sorry that is a little weenie..ish ...

No, you should be fine as the models are showing either App runners or just storms developing and intensifying when they get up North but nothing really in the SE. Latest GFS shows some part of Ky, and Va. getting some light snow in the next 5-10 days but that is about it.

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Well, it's back on the GFS.  The Euro didn't have it last night, though.   The problem is that it was an Apps Runner on the 6z, LOL...

 

We can work with that, though.  At least a storm is showing up.

I sure wish something would start cooking for the weekend storm, like trend south and a big storm.  looks like the cold air will be here if that storm will dig a little more it would go south and east of us and is the track  we need.

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