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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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12z EC ens mean appears to be a little south with coastal development compared to 0z, hard to tell with the 24hr steps, 168 is pretty crazy with H5 anomalies, > 300m departures is siig for a mean at day 7, especially the euro.  My guess would be there is a fair amount of spread regarding surface development, cold not as much.

 

12zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP144.gif

 

12zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP168.gif

 

12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif

post-382-0-31125200-1360532078_thumb.jpg

 

 

 

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Why do post get deleted for no apparent reason....the ao and nao look terrible today...after this brief cold shot winter is probably over

 

Because "It takes at least 10 consecutive days of subfreezing air to put a dent on fireants...those pesky critters aint going no wheres" has absolutely nothing to do with pattern and storm disco.  Please take sidebars and stuff like this to banter, while useful info, this is not the thread for it.   :)

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Because "It takes at least 10 consecutive days of subfreezing air to put a dent on fireants...those pesky critters aint going no wheres" has absolutely nothing to do with pattern and storm disco. Please take sidebars and stuff like this to banter, while useful info, this is not the thread for it. :)

what are your thoughts on the nao showing up on the gfs and euro ensembles?
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what are your thoughts on the nao showing up on the gfs and euro ensembles?

A stout +PNA would help, but it appears headed for the cellar again after a brief run at slightly above around the 16th. +PNA > -NAO for SE winter wx potential in my opinion, both would be great, but in the absence of one, my money would always be on the ridge into western Canada.

 

post-382-0-16073700-1360535157_thumb.jpg

 

Complex interaction around 114hrs in the central Plains, then another near miss at 141 with whatever comes down on the backside near OK/AR.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=35.68760&lon=-77.16610&zoom=4&type=terrain&units=english&rad=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=0&pix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=500&mm.hour=141&mm.opa=100&ndfd=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&ib=0&pep=0&extremes=0&hurrevac=0&sst=0&livesurge=0&femaflood=0&tsunami=0&seismicrisk=0&fault=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&hur=0

 

Your gonna have to loop it

post-382-0-42929800-1360536299_thumb.jpg

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Because "It takes at least 10 consecutive days of subfreezing air to put a dent on fireants...those pesky critters aint going no wheres" has absolutely nothing to do with pattern and storm disco.  Please take sidebars and stuff like this to banter, while useful info, this is not the thread for it.   :)

You're the boss, but he was responding to the post below that hoped the result of this weekends pattern would reduce the fire ants. So in this case it is at least somewhat related. Besides it would be pretty strange to respond directly the the post in a different thread.

For one thing it will be nice to see the very cold air. We have had a few minor winter events this year but it has been a couple of years since a real dump of arctic air; or at least not like this. **hopefully this will kill back som of the fire ant hills.

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 Like Tony and apparently unlike many here including Brick, I'm a big fan of a period of any kind of strong cold. Do the original 14 analog winters from the thread I started on 1/1 about the warm December give us a clue to the chances for it to actually occur this time despite a good number of false alarms this winter on the GFS (some on the Euro) and despite some waffling still occuring from run to run about the strength of the cold? Let's see:

 

 Of the 14 warm KATL Dec. analogs, an impressive nearly half (6) had a low at KATL that was 20 F or lower within one week of 2/17, the date for which the cold GFS/Euro runs have been centering the upcoming projected cold:

 

- 1901: 19 F on 2/24

- 1922: 20 F on 2/17

- 1923: 13 F on 2/18

- 1924: 19 F on 2/22

- 1993: 19 F on 2/19

- 2012: 19 F on 2/12

 

 So, whereas I'm not yet confident that KATL will get down to 20 F or lower (still a week away, models still waffling somewhat, and models have had false cold shots), it is a very believable possibility based on these analogs. If it occurs, I'm currently guessing that KATL would get down to ~17-20 F for the coldest around 2/17.

 

 Should it get this cold at KATL around 2/17, does that mean I'm giving up on teens in March? Absolutely not. Let's look at just these six winters going into March: 

 

- 1901 went on to have an even colder low of 17 F on 3/6

- 1923 went on to have a 17 F on 3/20

- 1993 went on to have an even colder low of 18 F on 3/14

 

 So, an impressive half of these six winters went on to have upper teens in March.

So what's your take on percentages, via climo analogs, and if we get the cold showing....we get a one shot cold pop for a few days, then back to warmish..or, get a couple of weeks of repeated cold shots..., or the door I like,..... a complete switch to winter, lasting all the way to April, and featuring several brutal, to near brutal cold invasions?  Like...did the cold come over the pole from the other side, and blast us good for a month, during many of those analog winters...like Robert was talking about 59/60...or was that the year to hope for, out of many?  Thanks, Mr. Wizard.  T

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So what's your take on percentages, via climo analogs, and if we get the cold showing....we get a one shot cold pop for a few days, then back to warmish..or, get a couple of weeks of repeated cold shots..., or the door I like,..... a complete switch to winter, lasting all the way to April, and featuring several brutal, to near brutal cold invasions?  Like...did the cold come over the pole from the other side, and blast us good for a month, during many of those analog winters...like Robert was talking about 59/60...or was that the year to hope for, out of many?  Thanks, Mr. Wizard.  T

 

Tony,

 The climo analogs that I've been seeing would favor there to be no more than several days of solid cold, assuming it actually occurs, and which would then be most likely followed by a return to warmish (though even then it could include some cold interspersed as has been the case since late Jan). Then the hope based on analogs would be for a 1-2 week long period of what would quite possibly be the coldest of the entire winter (the coldest 1-2 week period averaged out plus the coldest individual days within that 1-2 week period) starting either in very late Feb. or more likely in early to mid March as well as one or two rather widespread SE wintry precip. possiblities then. Now if this nearterm cold threat actually verifies and is cold enough, that obviously would reduce the chance that the coldest in March would be the coldest of the entire winter. However, I'm not currently thinking that will happen. I'm not currently considering 1959-60 an analog because at KATL Dec. of 59 and Jan. of 60 didn't average out as warm months overall. However, March of 1960 does show what could happen in the extreme.

 

 Bottom line: Based strictly on analogs, I lean more toward a break between the supposed nearterm cold shot and the hopefully 1-2 week mainly March wintry period.

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Thanks, Larry.  Break the Ice so to speak, then more or less following your previous time trame for March.  I would like to see at least a few weeks of much below, to make up for all this much above.  To think that that week or so of below freezing temps  a few years back, record breaking, if I remember right, would be the end of a cold cycle, rather than the beginning would be painful to have to endure, lol.  I've gotten the rains back, if fact it is absolutely pounding out there now.  Those big pellet sized drops that hit with a higher sound and make a good racket.  I need to see that the cold can come in here and do a pipe busting dance again :) Then I'll begin to think a repeat is possible against what's been visible so far, which is no, over and over.  T

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18z GFS - has a 1002mb low over Dallas coming from NM, and going to Memphis then Ohio (998 by then).  Is there any way to get that low to track farther south and east?  What would be needed for that to happen? hrs 240-288

 

Granted, this is the LR 18z I'm talking about but bleh, just for the sake of me learning what's needed...what's needed? Lol.

 

-aaron

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18z GFS - has a 1002mb low over Dallas coming from NM, and going to Memphis then Ohio (998 by then).  Is there any way to get that low to track farther south and east?  What would be needed for that to happen? hrs 240-288

 

Granted, this is the LR 18z I'm talking about but bleh, just for the sake of me learning what's needed...what's needed? Lol.

 

-aaron

It phases it and pulls it N,12 days you might not see it again :pimp:

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0z GFS is now about on par with the NAM's solution of making the V-Day Storm an Apps Runner (previous runs have taken it off the coast).  Hopefully, this can widen our trough some.

 

The NAM actually ended up pounding New England with another 1'+ of snow, too.  We'll see if the GFS agrees.

 

EDIT: Yes, the GFS does agree, it appears.  996 mb SLP in the Chesapeake Bay at hr 75.

 

EDIT #2: Eh, maybe not, it goes out to sea some, but hammers Cape Cod and Long Island.  It's definitely something to watch, though.

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