burgertime Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Gfs too progressive with the follow up storm. Won't happen this run. Yep only chance is if that diving energy can phase a little later...doesn't look too great as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Well 00z keeps it cold, this is step number one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Trough axis looks good....just need a vort max / shortwave to dive down the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Trough axis looks good....just need a vort max / shortwave to dive down the backside. Yea just our luck 00z GFS doesn't even throw us a bone. Gotta love the look though. If we can keep it up for a sustained period something will show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The GFS has went form massive winter storm to bone dry in just a few runs. Very impressive consistency. And if we don't eventually cash in with that pattern the GFS is indicating, weenie suicides will be in order. EDIT: -10C 850s south of SAV at hr 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Nothing ever good came from high pressure over Oklahoma ... sigh .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This is one cold run -20 850's making it into the south and freezing temps making it almost to Gainsville FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Well 00z keeps it cold, this is step number one. First of all, that's not step 1. Step one, you cut a hole in the box. Secondly, looks like arctic front snow in the piedmont. It's all but snowing next Saturday. Do I believe it? No. Need to see the euro jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 0z GFS gives NC/TN a winter storm on February 23rd, LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 0z GFS gives NC/TN a winter storm on February 23rd, LOL... And than the pattern breaks down and we have spring...we are done with another hell forsaken winter. Looks like we one final chance from the 18-24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 First of all, that's not step 1. Step one, you cut a hole in the box. Secondly, looks like arctic front snow in the piedmont. It's all but snowing next Saturday. Do I believe it? No. Need to see the euro jump on board. Please don't give me the box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 First of all, that's not step 1. Step one, you cut a hole in the box. Secondly, looks like arctic front snow in the piedmont. It's all but snowing next Saturday. Do I believe it? No. Need to see the euro jump on board. Win. Best post of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Can't help but think that the models are struggling a bit....seems to always happen when a big storm rolls up the coast. Might take them a few days to settle on the pattern that follows. And remember, good or bad, they have been pretty suspect past five days. I would be surprised, not shocked, to see it go cold and dry as that pattern has not happened all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 0z GFS gives NC/TN a winter storm on February 23rd, LOL... Verbatim no it doesn't according to the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Verbatim no it doesn't according to the snow maps. People still don't know how to deal with cold fronts and precip on the models. The precip is always done by the time the cold air arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Verbatim no it doesn't according to the snow maps. Okay, well 850s looked fine. They are south of most of NC at hr 300 and far enough south at 312. The precip comes in between 300 and 312. Maybe surface temps didn't work or 850s shot up during the event and back down afterwards (only get panels every 12 hours at that range). The track itself looks decent and there's a 1028 mb HP to give a little cold air. I'm not seeing a passing cold front, Widre. I know that never works out. We go from this: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif To this: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_312_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Not that it really matters. The GFS after hr 192 is a total crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Can't help but think that the models are struggling a bit....seems to always happen when a big storm rolls up the coast. Might take them a few days to settle on the pattern that follows. And remember, good or bad, they have been pretty suspect past five days. I would be surprised, not shocked, to see it go cold and dry as that pattern has not happened all winter. Please don't say the models have to heal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z ECMWF much colder for the V-day storm...snow for WNC, maybe central NC as storm exits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z ECMWF much colder for the V-day storm...snow for WNC, maybe central NC as storm exits... I'm only getting the 24-hour free panels on Allan's site, but the track looks similar to what the Canadian has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm only getting the 24-hour free panels on Allan's site, but the track looks similar to what the Canadian has been showing. IDK what the CMC has been showing, haven't been watching models lately...I'll take a look, but I know 0z Euro lines the coast of SC then off the coast of Wilmington, NC contrast that with the 12z Euro track through NC off northern OBX. Edit: Took a look. Similar to CMC except no bomb, just glides off the coast...also a little more north, CMC is well off GA/SC coast when Euro run is not....not too hi-res so who knows where exactly the low is positioned. Good trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 IDK what the CMC has been showing, haven't been watching models lately...I'll take a look, but I know 0z Euro lines the coast of SC then off the coast of Wilmington, NC contrast that with the 12z Euro track through NC off northern OBX. Edit: Took a look. Similar to CMC except no bomb, just glides off the coast...also a little more north, CMC is well off GA/SC coast when Euro run is not....not too hi-res so who knows where exactly the low is positioned. Good trend though. Alright, thanks, Jon! The Euro and the GFS are really diverging at hr 144 as far as the trough. Wow. EDIT: Oh, wow, I see a 1008 mb SLP off Cape Hatteras at hr 168 on the Euro. Need details... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 People still don't know how to deal with cold fronts and precip on the models. The precip is always done by the time the cold air arrives. might be true for Kata fronts, but it it's a Ana type front then there is a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Well...the one map I want to see on Allen's site (168) is the one that for some reason never works.It looks to be laying the cold air down at 144 and then by 192 there's another sub-990mb low off the New England coast. So what happens in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Well...the one map I want to see on Allen's site (168) is the one that for some reason never works. It looks to be laying the cold air down at 144 and then by 192 there's another sub-990mb low off the New England coast. So what happens in between? our storm is back is so close to blowing up in the gulf.at 180 the low is in the nw gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 then ots however it does try to turn the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Well...the one map I want to see on Allen's site (168) is the one that for some reason never works. It looks to be laying the cold air down at 144 and then by 192 there's another sub-990mb low off the New England coast. So what happens in between? Yeah, I was bugged by the same thing. However, here is a view from Instant Weather Maps of hr 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 so much for the trough axis orienting west through the plains and or focusing mainly through the Mississippi Valley. Model consistency is just not there right now at all. Looks like we will get some very cold air now but its up in the air as to the moisture part. that strong digging s/w the GFS had for a good few runs and Euro had is just not as sharp digging or as strong as it is modeled now. If I had to guess I would put my bets on some light snow with a weak clipper going through the arctic air and giving TN, MS, GA, WNC some dry, high ratio snow when all is said and done. I have absolutely NO Meteorology experience other than what I learn here and other boards so take it for what its worth which is very little... (which I'm sure is obvious from my lack of use of scientific wording and lack of detailed reasoning lol). It just seems to be where this is heading to me. Would not be surprising in the least to see this go back to something that was similar to what we saw early yesterday and the night before though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GSP's long term overnight: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...STARTING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AXIS OF THEAPPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AT MEMPHIS AND SURFACELOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA. THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ON THE MORESOUTHERN TRACK...ACROSS SAV TO CHS. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW FROM ATLTO CLT ALONG I-85. THE NAM TAKES THE LOW UP INTO TENNESSEE NORTH OFCHA. THE CANADIAN TAKES THE LOW EVEN MORE SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. FEELBETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THE MORE CORRECT SOLUTION AND ADEFORMATION ZONE FORMS OVER THE NC MTNS ON THE NW SIDE OF THEDEPARTING LOW. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON SNOWFALL IN THE NC MTNSFOR A FEW HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING AROUNDMIDNIGHT AS NW FLOW ENDS AND MOISTURE DRIES UP.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURERIDES ALONG THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAYSHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.A COLD FRONT RUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. PREVIOUSMODEL RUNS WERE MORE ROBUST IN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY. MOST RECENTRUN OF THE GFS CUT WAY BACK WITH ONLY BRIEF LIGHT PRECIP OVER NCMTNS AROUND MID DAY SATURDAY. 12Z SATURDAY ECMWF HAD ABSOLUTELY NOPRECIP OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEWEST RUN HAS LIGHTPRECIP OVER MAINLY WESTERN NC FROM MID DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAYNIGHT. MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING VERY COLD AIRNEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST COLD. ACCORDING TOGFS...AVL WOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURESWELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND FOR SURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 p008 from the 6z gfs members ftw! I'm sure Gawx will approve of that storm track and hr 174 looks even better. Now if we can just get things to play out like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 p008 from the 6z gfs members ftw! I'm sure Gawx will approve of that storm track and hr 174 looks even better. Now if we can just get things to play out like that... can't see the southeast, can you move it to the left a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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