Chattownsnow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 18z doesn't look like it's gonna happen. its just not winding up the V-day storm up the coast anymore helping to set up the next storm... oh well it was fun while it lasted. maybe it will come back. energy isn't diving down anymore either. just a clipper through the lakes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 boys we just can't seem to get the cold and a classic gulf low at the same time. everytime the models show something the next run or two its gone. can't even get a little excited about the long range. depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Man so close. I think we have something to watch guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 We're close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 This is at hour 165. Not a lot of precip but that detail is un-important right now. The pattern has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Man so close. I think we have something to watch guys. it ends up giving NC some light/moderate snow in later frames. potential is still very much there at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Huge change again looks like another piece comes down late and it phases too late for us. Ridge axis is also too far east for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Lol 18z gfs op goes all in on a -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Weirdest looking run yet. 0.25-0.5" of QPF here with 850s close to -10C. I'd take it as with ratios it would be a damn good snowfall (3-7"?), but I don't buy the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Weirdest looking run yet. 0.25-0.5" of QPF here with 850s close to -10C. I'd take it as with ratios it would be a damn good snowfall (3-7"?), but I don't buy the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Confidence continues to grow in getting a -nao. The gefs continue to point to this. And the last 4 runs of the euro ensembles have picked up on this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 yep I refused to watch the news on the big snowstorm up north, it just hurt to bad to watch since I haven't even had a inch this winter and I'm in the nc mtns. I was hoping the VD would have something or next weekend would have something for us. Well I did watch quite a bit of it. I do like seeing the snow fall even on TV, and it might be the only way to see it this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Next week looks alright to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Next week looks alright to me. They have a separate thread on it....http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39265-valentines-day-winter-weather-special-for-the-high-country/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 HPC Disco from 11AM this morning for post V-day... UPSTREAM NRN PAC ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN AMPLIFYING OVER THE CONUSAROUND WED-THU...THIS MAY END UP BEING A RATHER COMPLEX SYSTEM. TO SIMPLIFY AMID UNCERTAINTY YET STILL MAINTAIN SYSTEM DEVELOPMENTTHREAT...THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERS A COMPROMISEMID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL US BETWEEN00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE LESS NEGATIVE TILTOF THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TROUGH SEEMS CONSISTENT WITHENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM THE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE POSITION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 18zGFS ensembles still look good IMO for the 6-10 day timeframe. Potential is still there who knows if someone in the SE can cash in or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z GFS looks quite cold starting at hr 156 and going for awhile. Then at 192 a 1004mb low shows up in crl NC right next to FAY. I realize 1004mb isn't very strong, but with all that cold air having been there for a good amount of time, could it lead to at least light snowfall for places like FAY...who have gotten a whopping 0.0" of snow so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 18zGFS ensembles still look good IMO for the 6-10 day timeframe. Potential is still there who knows if someone in the SE can cash in or not. I think Vday looks interesting still...get the low to go far lower. Then it leaves a weakness...a sure fire way to pop a low into the cold. I just hope the models hold the cold. We need some cold olde fastioned cold T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Cold chasing moisture never works in favor except for a minor event around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The NAM (Never Accurate Model) looks good at hr(doesn't matter). nice and juicy for valentines day. It has been trending slightly north in recent runs with the low it seems which is almost always a given for the NAM to do. way to warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The NAM (Never Accurate Model) looks good at hr(doesn't matter). nice and juicy for valentines day. It has been trending slightly north in recent runs with the low it seems which is almost always a given for the NAM to do. way to warm though. Looks like a CADish Miller B at 84h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Looks like a CADish Miller B at 84h. Yeah, but surface temps are way too warm. There is a lot of precip being modeled for this system, though. Tons of precip coming for GA, SC, and NC. Well, at least the western parts of these states. I think TN, particularly western parts have a very good chance at picking up some wintry weather, and the whole state should be very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The NAM (Never Accurate Model) looks good at hr(doesn't matter). nice and juicy for valentines day. It has been trending slightly north in recent runs with the low it seems which is almost always a given for the NAM to do. way to warm though. Looks promising for TN especially middle TN. I would keep a close eye on that little ULL it's popping at the end of the run. The last big ULL we had started out heading towards Indiana and ended up in SC. Though it's a different setup a slight jog SE could really give you guys a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Nam spotted both minor events for us. Euro and nam nailed the ne storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Nam spotted both minor events for us. Euro and nam nailed the ne storm Also prime time for SE jogs...over the next few days but we need to see that happening soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Nothing a few SE jogs won't fix for some...(NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS has moderate snow for most of TN. That ULL will be the feature to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Sfc temps look like crap for the V. Day storm. 850's are decent for Tn. but sfc temps are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yeah. BL temps aren't even close for TN aside from maybe the mountains, despite compliant 850s. And the precip isn't particularly heavy, which doesn't help. Big hit for DCA, it appears... The V-Day SLP is really strengthening as it moves up hugging the coast. 18z went OTS. Could affect things downstream in the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Gfs too progressive with the follow up storm. Won't happen this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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