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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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yep I refused to watch the news on the big snowstorm up north, it just hurt to bad to watch since I haven't even had a inch this winter and I'm in the nc mtns.  I was hoping the VD would have something or next weekend would have something for us.

 

Well I did watch quite a bit of it. I do like seeing the snow fall even on TV, and it might be the only way to see it this winter.

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HPC Disco from 11AM this morning for post V-day...

 

UPSTREAM NRN PAC ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN AMPLIFYING OVER THE CONUSAROUND WED-THU...THIS MAY END UP BEING A RATHER COMPLEX SYSTEM. TO SIMPLIFY AMID UNCERTAINTY YET STILL MAINTAIN SYSTEM DEVELOPMENTTHREAT...THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERS A COMPROMISEMID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL US BETWEEN00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.  THE LESS NEGATIVE TILTOF THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TROUGH SEEMS CONSISTENT WITHENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM THE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE POSITION.
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12z GFS looks quite cold starting at hr 156 and going for awhile.  Then at 192 a 1004mb low shows up in crl NC right next to FAY.  I realize 1004mb isn't very strong, but with all that cold air having been there for a good amount of time, could it lead to at least light snowfall for places like FAY...who have gotten a whopping 0.0" of snow so far?

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18zGFS ensembles still look good IMO for the 6-10 day timeframe. Potential is still there who knows if someone in the SE can cash in or not.

I think Vday looks interesting still...get the low to go far lower.  Then it leaves a weakness...a sure fire way to pop a low into the cold.  I just hope the models hold the cold.  We need some cold olde fastioned cold :)  T

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Looks like a CADish Miller B at 84h.

 

Yeah, but surface temps are way too warm.  There is a lot of precip being modeled for this system, though.  Tons of precip coming for GA, SC, and NC.  Well, at least the western parts of these states.  I think TN, particularly western parts have a very good chance at picking up some wintry weather, and the whole state should be very wet.

 

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The NAM (Never Accurate Model) looks good at hr(doesn't matter). nice and juicy for valentines day. It has been trending slightly north in recent runs with the low it seems which is almost always a given for the NAM to do. way to warm though.

 

Looks promising for TN especially middle TN. I would keep a close eye on that little ULL it's popping at the end of the run. The last big ULL we had started out heading towards Indiana and ended up in SC. Though it's a different setup a slight jog SE could really give you guys a good snow. 

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Yeah. BL temps aren't even close for TN aside from maybe the mountains, despite compliant 850s.  And the precip isn't particularly heavy, which doesn't help.

 

Big hit for DCA, it appears...

 

The V-Day SLP is really strengthening as it moves up hugging the coast.  18z went OTS.  Could affect things downstream in the run...

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