February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[franklin NCwx]

I don't think "panic" is a good word to use for two reasons and it gives people like Widre ammunition.

1) The word "panic" is good to use when there's an impending disaster (I don't mean wx) or some other kind of truly bad news is on the way. If someone doesn't get a winter storm on a certain day, life will go on just fine. Big friggin deal. Nothing to "panic" about for goodness sakes. There are way worse things in life.

2) Using the word "panic" sort of implies to me that you really think rather widespread wintry precip. is actually likely going to occur in the SE US. I assume you really aren't that confident and are instead just hoping. If not, I think you are overdoing the probability especially with it not even being modeled now on various models.

Larry, you are correct. I should have worded my post differently.

[dsaur]

Pretty incredibly cold at hour 180 with 0 850s down to Tampa and Orlando and no sign of the storm from 00Z.

 

  I've done a complete about face.  Early in the winter, I wanted rains, and let the cold air take care of it's self.  I figured borderline cold would get us some frozen, and it did, but not widespread enough..i.e. for Mby, lol.  Now, I've gotten some good rains this winter, and I'm feeling better about the drought (though marginally), I have decided I'm pure fed up with no true cold for 3 years and counting, so now it's the cold, cold I want, and let the rains take care of themselves, lol.

  I say this now, and don't know if I really mean it, but I think if I can get a day time high under 32, I'll count this winter as a success, even if the rains come before, or after,...as long as it keeps raining.                                        Nawww...that's just wrong in so many ways, lol.  I want some danged sleet, dang it   T

[Cold Rain]

What is amusing to me is the impressive proclivity for hyperbole, as though there is some sort of widespread problem with wishcasting, false model bias construction, and wholesale adherence to each model run.

Have there been some instances of this? Sure. But most on this board understand that a model is unlikely to be correct several days out. Most don't cancel winter after one model run. Most don't make up model biases out of thin air just to suit their desired solution. Anything implying otherwise is a strawman.

That said, there are most certainly model biases and most certainly patterns that allow for increased or decreased model skill. One could try to teach folks who don't fully understand when those might or might not apply, if one were so inclined.

[pcbjr]

FWIW - Weather Underground is calling for about 2" in Blairsville/Suches next Saturday.

[burgertime]

Euro is digging some energy @162 out west...let's see where it goes.

[WilkesboroDude]

FWIW - Weather Underground is calling for about 2" in Blairsville/Suches next Saturday.

 

Also a 60% chance of snow up to 2" in Wilkes from WU. Toss it.

[burgertime]

@180 moisture in TX an a very weak low in the gulf...gotta see if this can get amped up as it moves east. 

[bhamwx205]

@180 moisture in TX an a very weak low in the gulf...gotta see if this can get amped up as it moves east.

its already worlds better than last nights run

[burgertime]

And she is OTS...but hey it's something. 

[dsaur]

@180 moisture in TX an a very weak low in the gulf...gotta see if this can get amped up as it moves east. 

We Georgians want a weaker gulf low, as long as it finds the panhandle or lower.  T

[WeatherNC]

What is amusing to me is the impressive proclivity for hyperbole, as though there is some sort of widespread problem with wishcasting, false model bias construction, and wholesale adherence to each model run.

Have there been some instances of this? Sure. But most on this board understand that a model is unlikely to be correct several days out. Most don't cancel winter after one model run. Most don't make up model biases out of thin air just to suit their desired solution. Anything implying otherwise is a strawman.

That said, there are most certainly model biases and most certainly patterns that allow for increased or decreased model skill. One could try to teach folks who don't fully understand when those might or might not apply, if one were so inclined.

 

There will always be some who feel inclined to chastise others for so called "false optimism."  Granted there is a difference, at-least in my book, between someone who is just a perpetual optimist, and a down-right new-yankee wish-caster.  What I have observed over this winter is a general disdain to an overall crappy pattern, a few who make the dislikes well-known, at times maybe directing it at others.  This has a negative impact on the community as a whole, moral is down, general mood is down, and after awhile it starts to spread.  My advice to those who are always the optimist, don't change, your ability to see 33 and SN draws other in, it raises hope, your a moral booster.  The parade RN owners, you help in balancing things out, but try not to direct your disgruntled-ness at others, attacks the idea not the person.

 

EC rolling.  As Cold RN just said, there are patterns that allow for increased, or decreased skill in forecasting.  When we still have a good amount of variability in solutions with regards to the V-Day storm, how can we expect the models to even somewhat accurately predict the storm that comes after?  At this range I recommend the means, lower res, helps to smooth out the moderate differences, with slight perturbations fed into each member, average the suckers out.  With that being said, the biggest difference I see between the 0 and 12z GFS ens mean is the heights over Newfoundland, probably a good 200m lower on the 12z run compared to 0.  That allows the trough room to come north, and it cuts off over the OH Valley rather than the SE.  Needs to be watched, never good to predict where a model is going but the 12z Canadian would have done similar if it kept going after 144.  The big 3 means, averaged out, would put ~ -200m H5 departures over TN around 192hrs, GFS ens mean closer to 300 over NC,quicker, GGEM and EC -150-200 and hanging back west a little over TN.

[downeastnc]

And she is OTS...but hey it's something. 

OTS is good in this range better OTS hoping for a NW trend better than it being a cutter and hoping for a SE trend......

[jmundie]

The euro is garbage beyond 120. Anytime it dumps something in the southwest, I'm imminently skeptical.

 

THe big different between the 0z GFS and the 12z is the valentines day system doesn't become a 50/50 low. The trough then isn't able to dig as it did at 0z, hence the low pops around the mid atlantic and h5 closes off over PA.

 

The ensembles are literally in crazy land on the GFS. All over the place. Some have a huge vortex over the mid south with snow showers in TN and Kentucky being pulled from the gulf through the northeast and the lakes and back down into the midsouth.

 

Some sort of big system will likely happen in that timeframe. Who it effects - well that's anyone's guess. We have to get the valentines system track/strength agreed upon before we know for sure.

[NCsandhills]

12z gfs has some serious cold.  hopefully the next run brings our LPS back with like 980mb hahaha.  

[FallsLake]

GGEM for Vday...

 

Looks like it's in aggrement with the NAM. Both show more of a cold push into NC.

[NCSNOW]

OTS is good in this range better OTS hoping for a NW trend better than it being a cutter and hoping for a SE trend......

Agreed. If mby misses out I'd rather it be because I'm to far nw. At least you guys down east could cash in.

[superjames1992]

The 12z GEFS don't seem to agree with the op, so it's probably fair to say that the GFS doesn't have a real good handle on the pattern at the moment.

 

In any case, the ensembles do show the NAO heading into negative territory in late February and has been consistent with this.  We'll see.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zensnao.gif

[valkhorn]

The 12z GFS is completely different in terms of moisture/lows from the past 10 runs. So, until I see the same thing happen in the next few runs I won't write off a potential for TN on vday and after that.

 

8/12 members show snow or moderate snow for east TN in the ensemble members:

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf192.html

 

Cold looks like a lock, whether or not the moisture goes across it is left to be seen. There still seems to be a possibility of post frontal snow showers after the serious front around 180h.

[MillerA]

GSP Disco: They posted a 30% chance of snow after midnight on Friday, and Saturday morning for the Hickory area. Kinda surprised this far out. 

 

 

Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/... as of midday Sat...various deterministic and ensemble models have come into agreement that upper trough moving into the Southern Plains early in the week will form a weak but closed surface low over the Gulf Coast around 00z Wednesday. Still not all that good agreement however on the track of said low. As seen over the past couple of days...the GFS favors a more northern track through the southern Blue Ridge and the ec is further south...with the latter being correspondingly drier. The GFS ensemble mean is somewhat of a compromise between the two in terms of both the low track and quantitative precipitation forecast pattern. HPC compromised by blending the three models which seems fair. We should see a peak in precipitation coverage early Wednesday as the warm front edges northward across the Piedmont...with precipitation spreading more evenly across the area during the day as wraparound moisture arrives. GFS suggests some very small thunder risk while we are in the warm sector of the low Wednesday afternoon...too small to mention. Also it appears parcels would not be surface based so severe winds would not likely result. Northwest flow will dominate as the low rides up the coast Wednesday night...with light precipitation continuing into early Thursday in the mountains temperatures will quickly fall below freezing late Wednesday but moisture appears too shallow for snow...so freezing rain or riming would be more likely. Surface ridge builds in Thursday with mostly clear skies. Upper trough seen digging into the northern plains by 00z Friday. GFS and ec both develop a surface low and cold front. The GFS solution rapidly deepens the trough and blows the cold front through our area Friday night but without much quantitative precipitation forecast...while the ec delays any frontal passage until late Sat. Included some schc to chance probability of precipitation along with chilly temperatures for the end of next week. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

GSP Disco: They posted a 30% chance of snow after midnight on Friday, and Saturday morning for the Hickory area. Kinda surprised this far out. 

 

Yep, my NWS forecast says "rain and snow" for Friday night and Saturday.31/43 respectively

[jburns]

Yep, my NWS forecast says "rain and snow" for Friday night and Saturday.31/43 respectively

 

Mostly clear here.  I guess they are expecting a Joe Btfsplk event in your area.

[eyewall]

I haven't had time to read RAH's discussion but heard they mentioned "less qpf over the carolinas" which doesn't sound good.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Mostly clear here.  I guess they are expecting a Joe Btfsplk event in your area

 

????

[Cold Rain]

There will always be some who feel inclined to chastise others for so called "false optimism." Granted there is a difference, at-least in my book, between someone who is just a perpetual optimist, and a down-right new-yankee wish-caster. What I have observed over this winter is a general disdain to an overall crappy pattern, a few who make the dislikes well-known, at times maybe directing it at others. This has a negative impact on the community as a whole, moral is down, general mood is down, and after awhile it starts to spread. My advice to those who are always the optimist, don't change, your ability to see 33 and SN draws other in, it raises hope, your a moral booster. The parade RN owners, you help in balancing things out, but try not to direct your disgruntled-ness at others, attacks the idea not the person.

EC rolling. As Cold RN just said, there are patterns that allow for increased, or decreased skill in forecasting. When we still have a good amount of variability in solutions with regards to the V-Day storm, how can we expect the models to even somewhat accurately predict the storm that comes after? At this range I recommend the means, lower res, helps to smooth out the moderate differences, with slight perturbations fed into each member, average the suckers out. With that being said, the biggest difference I see between the 0 and 12z GFS ens mean is the heights over Newfoundland, probably a good 200m lower on the 12z run compared to 0. That allows the trough room to come north, and it cuts off over the OH Valley rather than the SE. Needs to be watched, never good to predict where a model is going but the 12z Canadian would have done similar if it kept going after 144. The big 3 means, averaged out, would put ~ -200m H5 departures over TN around 192hrs, GFS ens mean closer to 300 over NC,quicker, GGEM and EC -150-200 and hanging back west a little over TN.

Good post. Optimisim/pessimism, either one is fine.... It makes for better discussion and learning if you can objectively look at the situation from both perspectives. As has been said many times, many are frustrated with the general lack of winter weather over the last two years, and there's a propensity for a little more edginess and a little less patience than usual. But the fact remains we're all here for a common purpose, and hopefully there's room for some tolerance and some hospitality....at least to a point and with exceptions made for trolling and abrasiveness.

[FallsLake]

The 18Z NAM didn't back down from showing a colder solution for the V-day storm. It along following the Canadian would indicate a chance of back-end snow as the storm passes off the coast. Below is only hour 84, but this matches the 12Z run and more importantly the Canadian which shows the snow possibility (past this time).

[Cold Rain]

I haven't had time to read RAH's discussion but heard they mentioned "less qpf over the carolinas" which doesn't sound good.

The old Carolina precip hole. There should be a name for that. At least we've had some decent rain lately, so that's good, I guess.

[packbacker]

I haven't had time to read RAH's discussion but heard they mentioned "less qpf over the carolinas" which doesn't sound good.

Yep, they punted both, to warm for Vday and MA special for PD. That would be nice end to our winter, another sub 1" winter.

[eyewall]

There will always be some who feel inclined to chastise others for so called "false optimism."  Granted there is a difference, at-least in my book, between someone who is just a perpetual optimist, and a down-right new-yankee wish-caster.  What I have observed over this winter is a general disdain to an overall crappy pattern, a few who make the dislikes well-known, at times maybe directing it at others.  This has a negative impact on the community as a whole, moral is down, general mood is down, and after awhile it starts to spread.  My advice to those who are always the optimist, don't change, your ability to see 33 and SN draws other in, it raises hope, your a moral booster.  The parade RN owners, you help in balancing things out, but try not to direct your disgruntled-ness at others, attacks the idea not the person.

 

EC rolling.  As Cold RN just said, there are patterns that allow for increased, or decreased skill in forecasting.  When we still have a good amount of variability in solutions with regards to the V-Day storm, how can we expect the models to even somewhat accurately predict the storm that comes after?  At this range I recommend the means, lower res, helps to smooth out the moderate differences, with slight perturbations fed into each member, average the suckers out.  With that being said, the biggest difference I see between the 0 and 12z GFS ens mean is the heights over Newfoundland, probably a good 200m lower on the 12z run compared to 0.  That allows the trough room to come north, and it cuts off over the OH Valley rather than the SE.  Needs to be watched, never good to predict where a model is going but the 12z Canadian would have done similar if it kept going after 144.  The big 3 means, averaged out, would put ~ -200m H5 departures over TN around 192hrs, GFS ens mean closer to 300 over NC,quicker, GGEM and EC -150-200 and hanging back west a little over TN.

 

I think morale is about as low as it gets given last winter and for most this one. Look at my season total for of that example LOL. Anyway it may get worse if this V-day system ends up another dud. It is also tough watching an epic storm up north and drooling over it for some.

[franklin NCwx]

Good post. Optimisim/pessimism, either one is fine.... It makes for better discussion and learning if you can objectively look at the situation from both perspectives. As has been said many times, many are frustrated with the general lack of winter weather over the last two years, and there's a propensity for a little more edginess and a little less patience than usual. But the fact remains we're all here for a common purpose, and hopefully there's room for some tolerance and some hospitality....at least to a point and with exceptions made for trolling and abrasiveness.

stronger signal for a -nao on the gfs and euro ensembles today. Maybe this time it will come to pass? We will need it because the heights over alaska get pretty low.

[Tacoma]

yep I refused to watch the news on the big snowstorm up north, it just hurt to bad to watch since I haven't even had a inch this winter and I'm in the nc mtns.  I was hoping the VD would have something or next weekend would have something for us.