February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I think its that wrinkle over central TN which will pull the system and some warmth north and up the apps vs. running out east and allowing more cold to filter south.  Hope I'm wrong, but also no hp to the north.  If we had a high to the north, I'd be excited.

TW

 Well at 500mb it's still positively tilted (as of the 84h panel) which would imply that it will continue to progress eastward some more before moving northeast, but extrapolating the NAM past 84 is probably a waste of brain power.

[Cold Rain]

There is absolutely nothing that I see that will not allow WAA to overcome any cold that might be around.  Even if the system remains suppressed, there is no mechanism to filter in enough cold air that will allow a widespread snowfall.  There will be boundary layer issues galore.  The only hope here is either that the storm bombs, which no models are really showing or the models are substantially underestimating the magnitude of the cold air into the region, which there seems to be broad agreement against, at this time.

 

Of course, things can change, being this far out.  And as always, certain spots (like the mountains) have a better chance.

 

All this is in reference to the first system....not the one around 192.

[Lookout]

I think its that wrinkle over central TN which will pull the system and some warmth north and up the apps vs. running out east and allowing more cold to filter south.  Hope I'm wrong, but also no hp to the north.  If we had a high to the north, I'd be excited.

TW

Relying very much on the 84 hour nam is fools gold as you and others know but that said, It's very warm from 850mb to the surface. Would take some very strong caa to get any snow.

 

At any rate, a lot more importantly....a lot more rain looks in store for the southeast/north ga. 00z/06gfs shows 3 inches over north ga. And this will be an unusually long rain event.  Probably going to be dealing with some flooding problems in north Ga with this next system.

 

Certainly feel for those in flood prone areas but certainly not complaining here. Need all we can get.

[tarheelwx]

There is absolutely nothing that I see that will not allow WAA to overcome any cold that might be around.  Even if the system remains suppressed, there is no mechanism to filter in enough cold air that will allow a widespread snowfall.  There will be boundary layer issues galore.  The only hope here is either that the storm bombs, which no models are really showing or the models are substantially underestimating the magnitude of the cold air into the region, which there seems to be broad agreement against, at this time.

 

Of course, things can change, being this far out.  And as always, certain spots (like the mountains) have a better chance.

 

All this is in reference to the first system....not the one around 192.

Agree.  And the 12z gfs at 84 hrs is looking rather wet and potent.  Maybe this will shake things up a bit and yield some better results for the carolinas for next weekend.

TW

[Cold Rain]

Take a look at that parade of storms moving from the Pacific through western, southcentral, and southeastern Canada.  The Ls outnumber the Hs 13:1.  Sick.  Just sick.  Until that crap stops, it's going to be really hard to get a good, lengthy cold air feed into this part of the country.

 

[tarheelwx]

Take a look at that parade of storms moving from the Pacific through western, southcentral, and southeastern Canada.  The Ls outnumber the Hs 13:1.  Sick.  Just sick.  Until that crap stops, it's going to be really hard to get a good, lengthy cold air feed into this part of the country.

 

12zgfs500mbHGHTNA084.gif

Yep.  Just stifling!

TW

[tarheelwx]

12z GFS showing a better push of cold air out to the west @ 132 with lp swinging through the lakes.  Looks like it would push some cold air further into the southeast at the end of next week.

TW

[franklin NCwx]

I don't think this gfs run will have our storm next week. Not diiging as much and the energy is farther east.

[beanskip]

Very different solution coming from 12z GFS re: next week storm. Not holding much energy back -- trough perhaps more progressive.

[Jonesing for a chase]

Very different solution coming from 12z GFS re: next week storm. Not holding much energy back -- trough perhaps more progressive.

Noticed. that.  It does though have a stronger Greenland block (1042 vs 1025) compared to 0Z.  Not sure if it will help if we don't have the energy

[burgertime]

GFS is cold and dry compared to 00z which had the big dog. 

[tarheelwx]

GFS is cold and dry compared to 00z which had the big dog. 

I'd say a dramatic change from 00z.  Trend or hiccup?

TW

[calculus1]

Pretty incredibly cold at hour 180 with 0 850s down to Tampa and Orlando and no sign of the storm from 00Z.

 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Pretty incredibly cold at hour 180 with 0 850s down to Tampa and Orlando and no sign of the storm from 00Z.

 

Wow......didn't see that coming.... As modeled, this would be a really good cold air outbreak. Now, let's get some moisture on top of that cold air. Will be an interesting run of the Euro today, that's for sure.

[jaxjagman]

I'd say a dramatic change from 00z.  Trend or hiccup?

TW

more than likely a trend,look s almost like the euro 0z

[downeastnc]

Wow......didn't see that coming.... As modeled, this would be a really good cold air outbreak. Now, let's get some moisture on top of that cold air. Will be an interesting run of the Euro today, that's for sure.

That is impressive, we got to get the cold first without it no snow. Folks need to keep in mind the models are gonna have trouble working out details on storms in this range, lets just hope the cold look keeps up, if it does then I am sure something to track storm wise will pop up as we get closer the cold air coming down. I think most folks here have been doing this long enough to know that the models lose storms a lot and many times the storms we get come and go and move around by 2-4 days in this range.

[packbacker]

GGEM for Vday...

 

[bhamwx205]

more than likely a trend,look s almost like the euro 0z

would not consider a trend one run of the euro and one run of the gfs

[WidreMann]

I am always amused by the modelology that goes on in this forum. People have developed all sorts of superstitions to predict what the models will or won't do in this or that situation, with no basis in reality other than some sort of vague confirmation bias. Invariably, the superstitions tend to be ways to ignore unfavorable model output ("the models always have trouble in these types of patterns, so the storm will definitely happen") or manipulate it in some way, again, to give a more favorable interpretation. And we wonder why we are always disappointed...

[DixieBlizzard]

I am always amused by the modelology that goes on in this forum. People have developed all sorts of superstitions to predict what the models will or won't do in this or that situation, with no basis in reality other than some sort of vague confirmation bias. Invariably, the superstitions tend to be ways to ignore unfavorable model output ("the models always have trouble in these types of patterns, so the storm will definitely happen") or manipulate it in some way, again, to give a more favorable interpretation. And we wonder why we are always disappointed...

 

You just couldn't wait for one "negative" run, could you?  Is it much more different that folks spin a negative run than you dismissing what they are talking about based on ONE run?

[tarheelwx]

Just goes to show how quickly things can change.  We went from lacking cold air to cold and dry.  Moral of the story - lots of potential still on the table and events will come into focus in the 5-7 day range.  If Euro goes cold and dry next weekend, I'd say next weekend's storm is off.

TW

[DixieBlizzard]

If...if...this trend verifies, the rainfall will still be very beneficial as Lookout pointed out. All the lakes in the region are starting to really benefit except for Altoona, where the ACE should be ashamed of themselves.

[GaWx]

I am always amused by the modelology that goes on in this forum. People have developed all sorts of superstitions to predict what the models will or won't do in this or that situation, with no basis in reality other than some sort of vague confirmation bias. Invariably, the superstitions tend to be ways to ignore unfavorable model output ("the models always have trouble in these types of patterns, so the storm will definitely happen") or manipulate it in some way, again, to give a more favorable interpretation. And we wonder why we are always disappointed...

 

 I think that most folks here are knowledgeable enough to know that a large majority of actual modeled threats (out, say, 5+ days) don't even work out for their particular area for the winter as a whole. They also know (or should know) from climo (i.e., low frequency/low average wintry precip.) that significant winter storms in the nonmountainous SE are pretty uncommon because so many things have to come together just right. Example: only ~2-3% of total Atlanta's and ~5% of RDU's winter precip. amounts on avg. actually falls as wintry. Certainly, most people would have to know that something not even modeled as a threat has an even lower chance. However, once in a while, parts of the SE get a winter storm. So, it is likely closer to hope than actual expectations. That's why I sometimes to put out actual odds in my mind, often low, of something working out in N GA. If it doesn't work out, no problem, it wasn't expected to..hope for the next one, etc. Eventually, it will work out..later this winter or a subsequent one, etc. Eventually, some of the 2-3% at ATL and 5% at RDU will fall.

 

Edit: although only 2-3%, the % of hours falling as wintry is something higher since it tends to be lighter thasn nonwintry..I'd guess more like 4-5% of the precip. hours. at ATL and 7-8% of the RDU hours.

[metalicwx366]

I am always amused by the modelology that goes on in this forum. People have developed all sorts of superstitions to predict what the models will or won't do in this or that situation, with no basis in reality other than some sort of vague confirmation bias. Invariably, the superstitions tend to be ways to ignore unfavorable model output ("the models always have trouble in these types of patterns, so the storm will definitely happen") or manipulate it in some way, again, to give a more favorable interpretation. And we wonder why we are always disappointed...

You are exactly right. There is always somthing new invented whenever a model shows something another doesn't. Example is the models have not been doing well with small scale features. Or Nemo is causing models a hard time with the pattern.

[franklin NCwx]

While everyone is in panic mode the gef ensembles are much deeper with the trough than the op. 180 has the h5 low over burgers house

[franklin NCwx]

You are exactly right. There is always somthing new invented whenever a model shows something another doesn't. Example is the models have not been doing well with small scale features. Or Nemo is causing models a hard time with the pattern.

or the right answer and that is operational models perform poorly beyond 5 days. Most on here know not to take op model details at that range as gospel. This does not need to become a pc site where we hold the hands of grown men and make sure they temper their excitement.

[burgertime]

While everyone is in panic mode the gef ensembles are much deeper with the trough than the op. 180 has the h5 low over burgers house

 

I think the take away is that we are getting the cold....anytime you have got the cold in the SE there is a chance the moisture will come.  Step #1 is getting some cold air in place which the GFS and Euro are doing. I agree, no need to panic....and I hope and pray the GFS ENS Mean is correct. 

[GaWx]

While everyone is in panic mode the gef ensembles are much deeper with the trough than the op. 180 has the h5 low over burgers house

 

 I don't think "panic" is a good word to use for two reasons and it gives people like Widre ammunition.

 

1) The word "panic" is good to use when there's an impending disaster (I don't mean wx) or some other kind of truly bad news is on the way. If someone doesn't get a winter storm on a certain day, life will go on just fine. Big friggin deal. Nothing to "panic" about for goodness sakes. There are way worse things in life.

 

2) Using the word "panic" sort of implies to me that you really think rather widespread wintry precip. is actually likely going to occur in the SE US. I assume you really aren't that confident and are instead just hoping. If not, I think you are overdoing the probability especially with it not even being modeled now on various models.

[franklin NCwx]

I think the take away is that we are getting the cold....anytime you have got the cold in the SE there is a chance the moisture will come. Step #1 is getting some cold air in place which the GFS and Euro are doing. I agree, no need to panic....and I hope and pray the GFS ENS Mean is correct.

the extrem solution showing up on the modles is not likely to verify. There is still a favorable window next week for an event somewhere in the mid south. Could very well not happen. But when we see a snow storm on all models inside 144 hours. Those sometimes don't pan out either.

[Bevo]

or the right answer and that is operational models perform poorly beyond 5 days. Most on here know not to take op model details at that range as gospel. This does not need to become a pc site where we hold the hands of grown men and make sure they temper their excitement.

 

The bigger lesson that I see many struggle with is:

 

Stop hugging each model run.  You cannot live and die by each round of output.  Yet, even knowing this, the cliff comes and goes in 6 hour increments.