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February Pattern and Storm Discussion

POWERSTROKE

By POWERSTROKE,
in Southeastern States

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

Yeah, a rogue closed low is the only hope. These 849 hour GFS maps are worthless. The Euro 8-10 has looked awful the last few days. This pattern is going nowhere fast.

They're already running Masters promos on CBS.

Our corollary: "A tradition unlike any other ... another SE snow shutout, on CBS Sports."

I can't believe I am saying this, but I have beat Cheeze to punch....  I have already thrown in the towel!

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El Kabong

El Kabong

Posted
Posted

Tony,

 

Thanks for the kind words, although I'm sorry that my post was like pouring salt in the wound.  Yeah, those "almost" storms leave a sting that never quite goes away.  I was fortunate to still be living in my hometown of Rome, GA in March of 1993 when the Storm of the Century rolled through.  That one storm made up for a lot of the other heartbreaks I experienced growing up!  Of course, you can never really count out winter until mid-April.  I remember the April 3rd snow in 1987 that gave us a 5" snowfall in Rome.  Softball season was only 2 weeks away and I remember playing in the outfield and dodging the remnants of a melting snowman that some kids had built out in left field!  Here's a summary of that storm from ABC33-40 in Birmingham:

 

"That large slow-moving low-pressure area moved on to the NE from April 3 through April 5 and produced some unbelievable snow totals. In the Great Smoky Mountain Park, 60 inches accumulated on Newfound Gap. That is the largest single storm snowfall in North Carolina history–at least up until that time. As much as 36 inches was recorded in SE Kentucky. In Charleston, West Virginia, 25 inches easily broke the previous record for the entire month of April which was only 6 inches. Akron, Ohio got 21 inches–an all-time record. I-40 was closed by the snow for the first time since it had opened to traffic 20 years earlier."  

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah, It can happen.  That one still hurts.  I was in Atl, and had just lived through the worst ice storm in history, at least in Atl history, lol.  And here comes the golden storm...Macon got the snow we all dream about, and Atl got squat under partly cloudy.  Tears are rolling down my face even now thinking about it :)  That one hurt. The one two punch.  Break the city, drag us into the dark ages, then break all hearts...except Macon area hearts. In my minds eye I can still see those nasty kids having the time of their lives sledding on well over a foot of snow in a Macon Park, on the tv machine pictures, while I'm having to clean up all the down limbs from the ice killer, in the sun shine, lol.  It was a bowling ball storm, and even in Orchard Hill, between Griffin and Barnesville, they only got an inch or two.  Not a wide track on that one, and ever since I've hoped to get under one of those!

 

Ted, I don't know if it's the same storm.  I do remember the track was pretty sure a day or so out, and they were talking mid Ga bowling ball.  I don't remember a jump south with it.  But as Burns says I'm old, and maybe I'm miss remembering thru my tears.

 

El K...you need to post more!  Some post too much, some too little. 

  I do appreciate Dr. Larry's feel good prescriptions, but they lately seem to include enjoying the warmth as it may presage some big time cold later.  Well, the last time I could sled on cement was in 05, so I'm way beyond later, lol.  T

 

Tony,

 I experienced that in Savannah as a kid. Savannah got over 3" of S! (The precip. changed over.) That was the second 3"+ S at Sav. in just five years...a very rare feat as any one 3" snow there is very rare...only three over last ~150 years! This was a classic Miller A (what else lol) except the surface low was displaced a bit south (going over central FL pen.) of the most common Miller A path that dumps on the ATL-Athens corridor, when a low goes over the northern FL pen. (although they sometimes cross SE GA). Interestingly, there have been a few central FL pen. crossing Miller A's that gave ATL-Athens a major snow, such as 1/2002.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Tony,

Yeah, those of us on the southside of ATL (in my case south of Macon!) haven't even been within sniffing distance of a wintry event so far. I'm still holding out hope that Professor Larry's analysis will at least produce a threat before winter is over. The good news is that we had a good 4-year stretch of at least a minor snow or IP event up until last year's horrible winter. Our last event in 2011 was mainly of the IP variety...I can certainly agree with you that even a minor accumulation of sleet makes for great sledding! :sled:

I wasn't here in February of 1973 when 15-18" of snow fell across central Georgia, but at least it shows that under the right conditions, anybody can get a great snowstorm. Maybe we're on a 30-year cycle!

news_73snow.gif

Larry,

Thanks for the technical qualification. The main point remains the same...precipitation of the wintry variety simply doesn't occur much in our neck of the woods! I hope that your March analogs will at least provide us with a pattern that just might throw us a bone. Tracking a "potential" storm, even if it doesn't verify, would be exciting enough at this point!

Haha 2-5 inches for me on that map. Nice storm back then.
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

Look at the NWS page for FFC. They see some frozen precip and so do I. If it comes through in the middle of the day I could see your point but the timing appears to be overnight.

All that said there may not even be precip to work with.

Fair enough,i hope i'm wrong and you get something.Good luck

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
Am I crazy or is the 18z GFS trying to develop something around hr 96?

 

18z GFS continues to show that Gulf Low around Valentine's Day, though it cuts inland and gives most of us a cold rain (aside from some of the higher peaks in the mountains, perhaps).

Am I crazy or is the 18z GFS trying to develop something around hr 96?

 

18z GFS continues to show that Gulf Low around Valentine's Day, though it cuts inland and gives most of us a cold rain (aside from some of the higher peaks in the mountains, perhaps).

Check out 500 mb 0z nam hr 84. Just wish trough was sharper. like the gfs it shows more and more southern stream energy each run.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Looks like a cold pattern according to the 00z gfs.

 

Hopefully the cold comes to fruition with an active Southern stream.  The time range (i think the 18th of FEB area on 00z) is perfect climo around here in SC,GA,LA,TX,AL,MS and many parts of NC for a decent event.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Hopefully the cold comes to fruition with an active Southern stream.  The time range (i think the 18th of FEB area on 00z) is perfect climo around here in SC,GA,LA,TX,AL,MS and many parts of NC for a decent event.

 

There's a few big storms, including the Gulf Low that has showed up yet again on Valentine's Day.  This time it flirted off the coast and went too far out to sea for most of us before turning back inwards and slamming the Northeast with a big snowstorm.

 

Of course, that's the 300+ hour GFS, but it is fairly consistent in showing some sort of Gulf Low at that time period for the last three or four runs.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Tony,

 I experienced that in Savannah as a kid. Savannah got over 3" of S! (The precip. changed over.) That was the second 3"+ S at Sav. in just five years...a very rare feat as any one 3" snow there is very rare...only three over last ~150 years! This was a classic Miller A (what else lol) except the surface low was displaced a bit south (going over central FL pen.) of the most common Miller A path that dumps on the ATL-Athens corridor, when a low goes over the northern FL pen. (although they sometimes cross SE GA). Interestingly, there have been a few central FL pen. crossing Miller A's that gave ATL-Athens a major snow, such as 1/2002.

I'm glad they line up and hit central and south some times.  Ga is an equal opportunity snow state, lol.  I remember Jville getting some good snow at least once.  And even Metal can get blessed, though I think he lives in the southern hemisphere, lol.  Though I'd think Macon, and even down to El K tend to get better hits, more often.  And that's what I'm missing these past few winters.  The cold getting on down state.  It doesn't have to be bone cold, but freezing down to Jville shouldn't be all that hard to get, lol.   I figure with the low dp I could get some snow, or onset sleet tomorrow, it it waits to come in after dark good....but not likely.... and most winters it be a sure thing for onset sleet, for a minute or two.  T

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