Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Well, Dr. No said "yes" at 12z, so I don't know.  As with everything, time will tell.

 

 

Here's something to think about. Look at internal consistency. If the Euro cannot seem to lock on anything at that range, but other models can, then go towards those other models. Don't go from run to run, look at a collection of runs.

 

If the Euro is off and on a lot and has little consistency, it's not good to look at at this time. Yet the GFS has had very strong consistency. In other words, it's more likely right now for the Euro to cave to the GFS than the GFS to cave to whatever it is the Euro is doing simply because the Euro seems to be clueless.

 

High variability from model run to model run means the model is probably wrong about what it's showing. When it gives you consistency from run to run, that's when it's onto something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Something very calming about seeing another inch or more for Monday, then a string of 1 or less 850's out to truncation after all these endless 8's, 10's, and 14's.  Maybe two or more inches of rain this week, and some ip/sn maybe for the weekend...just has a nice look to it, real or not :)  Bless you Meteostar, I'll have happy dreams tonight. T

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's something to think about. Look at internal consistency. If the Euro cannot seem to lock on anything at that range, but other models can, then go towards those other models. Don't go from run to run, look at a collection of runs.

 

If the Euro is off and on a lot and has little consistency, it's not good to look at at this time. Yet the GFS has had very strong consistency. In other words, it's more likely right now for the Euro to cave to the GFS than the GFS to cave to whatever it is the Euro is doing simply because the Euro seems to be clueless.

 

High variability from model run to model run means the model is probably wrong about what it's showing. When it gives you consistency from run to run, that's when it's onto something.

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong but the GFS just recently showed a cut off tonight at 00z over the Eastern US?  The GFS has had an okay pattern setting up starting around V-day, but the main issue that's arising is that the pattern totally goes to Hell after the 16-18th threat @ H500 currently.

 

Edit: Well, not totally Hell.  Had some old maps showing up on my screen.. but still leaning that way slowly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we all can agree that the temps lately have not been a "torch". Models continue to show a major warm-up, but that keeps on moving forward. This makes me somewhat optimistic in winter chances, granted the window is very tight right now. Hopefully we will get some snow before summer arrives :D 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please correct me if I'm wrong but the GFS just recently showed a cut off tonight at 00z over the Eastern US?  The GFS has had an okay pattern setting up starting around V-day, but the main issue that's arising is that the pattern totally goes to Hell after the 16-18th threat @ H500 currently.

 

Edit: Well, not totally Hell.  Had some old maps showing up on my screen.. but still leaning that way slowly.

The Euro was strong for the last two runs, until now...completely different than the 0Z. The look at H5 of the 12Z was awesome

Link to comment
Share on other sites

those wound up/phased lows over the deep south rarely occur...especially when the models show them in the day 7-10 range. Be very skeptical my friends.

 

This is exactly right. Really fun to look at it unfold on models but unless we're closer you should always lean towards the solution that looks more realistic. Euro to me was that look last night at much as it sucks. Let's hope the models lose that super bomb look then start latching back on when we're about 3 days out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This was put out from GSP for next weekend.

 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE VERY
END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AIMING SOME SNOW
FOR AT LEAST THE NC MTNS SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS A VERY DEEP
TROUGH AND ECMWF NOT SO MUCH. WE WILL SEE IN FUTURE MODELS RUNS

WHERE THIS IS GOING. TEMPERATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Check out the 5h low position on the naefs on allans site. Cmc has a bomb, nogaps is about to go boom. The ukie only goes out to 144 but it has a st orm in tx with a 50/50 in place. Weenies are excited!

The 6-10 day time frame holds the most promise I've seen all year for a good storm to hit somebody in the SE.n. The GFS ensembles look pretty nice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Vday storm -EPS control is a nice winter storm for NC for points NW of 85/40. I know everyone is excited about this day 8 event but we need this day 4-5 event to blow up like the GFS shows as that helps generate the huge trough the GFS shows for the day 8 potential.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The PNA is looking better today in the extended. Has it now staying basically neutral (yesterday much more negative). The NAO is not looking as good. Has is basically going negative. AO is negative(..good). Story of this winter. When one (or two) becomes favorable the other does not.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just looking at the current layout the models are showing, looks like a Tenn, NC mountains special with the likely end track of the low too far west for most of us. Of course it will change with each model run most likely from now until then. Still, looks like someone in the South could get a pretty good storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Give models a few days to settle down after the Nor'easter. IMO virtually all the guidance is still a bit chaotic to put faith in any guidance beyond 2-3 days. That said the signals are conducive for an active southern stream and with the EPO/PNA regime and a tanking AO and a bit of a west based -NAO, the upcoming pattern may well be rather active for the next 10-12 days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

is this progressing slowly eastward?  will the carolinas benefit from this?

 

Looks to be headed NE to me, leaving the Carolinas on the east side. However, the models last night showed the center moving east-northeast through western NC. That rarely happens (not saying it can't), but we would get downsloped and dry-slotted, while the bulk of the precip would stay west of the apps...... TN, northwest GA, northern AL would benefit most from this set-up. This thing needs to dig south more than the GFS is showing if we want a winter storm here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Give models a few days to settle down after the Nor'easter. IMO virtually all the guidance is still a bit chaotic to put faith in any guidance beyond 2-3 days. That said the signals are conducive for an active southern stream and with the EPO/PNA regime and a tanking AO and a bit of a west based -NAO, the upcoming pattern may well be rather active for the next 10-12 days.

 

Wise words for the grasshoppers!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Give models a few days to settle down after the Nor'easter. IMO virtually all the guidance is still a bit chaotic to put faith in any guidance beyond 2-3 days. That said the signals are conducive for an active southern stream and with the EPO/PNA regime and a tanking AO and a bit of a west based -NAO, the upcoming pattern may well be rather active for the next 10-12 days.

I totally agree with this as the pattern does look rather stormy for the South but most likely it will be in the form of rain and cool temps east of the mountains. Having said that, I do think the Ark, Ms, Tn areas could get a couple of nice events with snow/ice. Obviously it is too soon to write off or count on any of this happening, but given the winter trends so far, it is likely to follow the set up we saw in late December for the country as a whole.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I totally agree with this as the pattern does look rather stormy for the South but most likely it will be in the form of rain and cool temps east of the mountains. Having said that, I do think the Ark, Ms, Tn areas could get a couple of nice events with snow/ice. Obviously it is too soon to write off or count on any of this happening, but given the winter trends so far, it is likely to follow the set up we saw in late December for the country as a whole.

Just looked at the 12z NAM vs the 06z GFS. I know it's in the NAM's la. la. range, but the NAM is considerably colder with the system coming in at 84h. Just something to watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the 12z NAM it looks interesting for what may occur after 84 hours. I'm strickly looking only at this model which stops at 84 hours:

 

850s being pushed SE or at least not being pushed away----

nam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif

 

Storm system traversing eastward---

 

 

nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

I think its that wrinkle over central TN which will pull the system and some warmth north and up the apps vs. running out east and allowing more cold to filter south.  Hope I'm wrong, but also no hp to the north.  If we had a high to the north, I'd be excited.

TW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think its that wrinkle over central TN which will pull the system and some warmth north and up the apps vs. running out east and allowing more cold to filter south.  Hope I'm wrong, but also no hp to the north.  If we had a high to the north, I'd be excited.

TW

I agree. But it does look like there will be a fight between the cold and the warm. As you stated the storm should push warmed northward setting this battle maybe in northern Virginia. **Again strickly looking at this run of the NAM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...