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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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12z euro at 216 has certainly peaked my interest...wowwww looks like its going to be cold lol GFS.  Jeez it has the LPS explode going up the coast.  in fact, why does it have it strengthen that quickly?  does that happen often?  192-204 has it go from 995mb to 978, centered in NC to centered on NYC.  then from 204-216 it only moves a little bit.  I am just curious about what causes that.  

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Not sure if BL temps are there, but 850s are good enough for some accumulating snowfall in the FL panhandle.

 

Meanwhile, quite a few degrees of latitude north, we in NC bask in a cold rain.  Oh, yes, weenie suicides would be in order if such a setup came to fruition.  Thankfully, it likely won't happen as modeled. ;)

 

EDIT: Yeah, surface temps aren't even close for FL, verbatim.

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Still need more digging for all of SE to get in on the act. Need that cold air to sweep around the east side of the Apps, lest it be chasing moisture for the Carolinas.

 

However, it certainly seems to be our most promising look this winter. Like that SOMETHING is showing up run after run. Hopefully Euro (rhymes with NO) doesn't lose it tonight.

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Still need more digging for all of SE to get in on the act. Need that cold air to sweep around the east side of the Apps, lest it be chasing moisture for the Carolinas.

 

However, it certainly seems to be our most promising look this winter. Like that SOMETHING is showing up run after run. Hopefully Euro (rhymes with NO) doesn't lose it tonight.

 

I'm actually tempted to stay up for it though I know that's probably folly.  What the heck though I'm down. 

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Interestingly enough 850's are even weirder @192 on this run. It's cold enough in CLT...but looks on edge in HKY. Would that be a case of the GFS just seeing dynamic cooling? 

ULL is still a baby when it crosses the SE, maturation starts right at truncation, cold pool is still lagging when it crosses us, rather than directly overhead with passing. Also the reason we don't see a developed band on the NW side, conveyer type, that happen into the MA, moisture is mostly loaded on the warm side for us, good thing we have 8 days to sort this out.

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