February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[John1122]

The post V-Day storm is a TN, Miss, Alabama dream out to 180.

[pcbjr]

Huh?

 

 

 

 

The screw is coming.

 

Huh?

 

[WhiteoutWX]

The precip this run makes absolutely no sense. Major storm looking at upper level features with deep negatively tilting trough. Tough to tell who exactly would be snow/rain at this point but it wouldn't be dry in the carolinas that's for sure.

[jaxjagman]

The precip this run makes absolutely no sense. Major storm looking at upper level features with deep negatively tilting trough. Tough to tell who exactly would be snow/rain at this point but it wouldn't be dry in the carolinas that's for sure.

Wouldnt be concerned about precip right now

[Cold Rain]

Huh?

 

Most of NC, SC, GA, FL, and Cuba get left out on this one.  Tn, MS, and AL should do well, as should the mountains, and parts of N. GA, and NW SC.  But who cares at this point.  As RDU said, there's a storm there....for now.

[jaxjagman]

Most of NC, SC, GA, FL, and Cuba get left out on this one.  Tn, MS, and AL should do well, as should the mountains, and parts of N. GA, and NW SC.  But who cares at this point.  As RDU said, there's a storm there....for now.

Exactly

[jaxjagman]

Most of NC, SC, GA, FL, and Cuba get left out on this one.  Tn, MS, and AL should do well, as should the mountains, and parts of N. GA, and NW SC.  But who cares at this point.  As RDU said, there's a storm there....for now.

Speaking of Cuba,the GFS has been hinting at cold to Miami for a couple runs,not that it will happen

[LithiaWx]

18z didn't look bad for west ga as well. Ill take that anytime.

[WilkesboroDude]

Interesting that the storm is there...we need it to show snow somewhere...Atlanta...Memphis...w/e....it would be too emotional to have widespread IMBY snow and to watch the models that long to make sure it does not change. Better there than here at this point. 

[jaxjagman]

Interesting that the storm is there...we need it to show snow somewhere...Atlanta...Memphis...w/e....it would be too emotional to have widespread IMBY snow and to watch the models that long to make sure it does not change. Better there than here at this point. 

Problem with the SE,unless we get a super storm someone will always be left out.Looking at the 850's its cold to Miami but the surface temps 32 only get to Jacksonville which should be expected in mid Feb

[dsaur]

Dang, CR, such a worry wart.  There is plenty of time for the magic pixies to ferment blocking....it is the long range after all   If cold appears where there was no cold, then why not blocking, and a perfectly placed high?  You need to be all in, or all out of the long range, lol.  Either it's never worth a look, or it's always worth a look

First step keep the rains.  Second step get Fla cold.  After that it's just a matter of a little timing...no worries.  T

[John1122]

I'm going to wager that 18z run is the single best model run for my area all winter long, I'd probably be 12+ inches with high ratio snowfall. And it's inside 192 hours. It's nice to look at til the 00z comes out at least. 

[NCsandhills]

That 18z GFS at hr 192 is pretty nice to look at lol.  850 temps though...not so great looking in crl NC.  hopefully we can get some of that cold air crl TN is going to be seeing...00z euro does have a good 972 low of the cost of NJ at 240. I wish I could see what's going on between 216 and 240 on the euro.  really strengthens rather quickly

[Cold Rain]

After the storm, the rest of the run is a disaster.

[pcbjr]

After the storm, the rest of the run is a disaster.

 

Truncation.

 

Or spring ....

[FallsLake]

_{For people in NC, the 18z GFS is not that bad. For one thing it's still out past day 7 so you can't look at the details; but even if you did it looks like some cold air would be available (at least in north NC) for some ice. This (run) almost looks like the Jan 96 storm. The RDU area recieved many inches of sleet (14 hours of sleet). BUT this is still many day off. The most important thing is there is a storm being modeled with cold air (around).}

[jaxjagman]

That 18z GFS at hr 192 is pretty nice to look at lol.  850 temps though...not so great looking in crl NC.  hopefully we can get some of that cold air crl TN is going to be seeing...00z euro does have a good 972 low of the cost of NJ at 240. I wish I could see what's going on between 216 and 240 on the euro.  really strengthens rather quickly

hr 240 on the Euro,you are ok,its freezing down to close to Daytona Beach,Fl

[mackerel_sky]

Give me something close to that storm,and it can be 80s degrees two days later,and beyond! The 18z is a thing of beauty!

After the storm, the rest of the run is a disaster.

[NCsandhills]

hr 240 on the Euro,you are ok,its freezing down to close to Daytona Beach,Fl

 

yeah it sure does, I hadn't checked the euro 850 temps when I posted just the GFS.  But yes, 12z Euro hr 216 has it even farther south.  Hope we can see some consistency with the next run.  do the models have a harder time predicting 2m temps or 925?  never see them talked about really, but it seems like that would be a tad easier to go off than the 850's.

[WilkesboroDude]

After the storm, the rest of the run is a disaster.

 

You say that like winter was not already a disaster for some. 

 

WxSouth

 

46 minutes ago

Lots of good potential in the upcoming pattern. After the Northeast Blizzard, Valentines Day system will have to be watched for MidSouth to MidAtlantic and then Northeast again, then after that the Euro and GFS are cooking up another huge system that dives down to the Gulf of Mexico and up the East Coast next weekend as a possible Monster not seen on that widescale in many, many years. That one could drop snow very far south.

[jburns]

You say that like winter was not already a disaster for some. 

 

WxSouth

 

46 minutes ago

Lots of good potential in the upcoming pattern. After the Northeast Blizzard, Valentines Day system will have to be watched for MidSouth to MidAtlantic and then Northeast again, then after that the Euro and GFS are cooking up another huge system that dives down to the Gulf of Mexico and up the East Coast next weekend as a possible Monster not seen on that widescale in many, many years. That one could drop snow very far south.

I'm beginning to wonder if JB has hacked into Roberts site.

[GaWx]

Most of NC, SC, GA, FL, and Cuba get left out on this one.  Tn, MS, and AL should do well, as should the mountains, and parts of N. GA, and NW SC.  But who cares at this point.  As RDU said, there's a storm there....for now.

 

 For N GA (and adjacent areas), it is pretty simple. Look at the 12Z Euro. For our best shot by far at major snow, we need a Miller A sfc low in the GOM that then moves over/near N FL pen. That's the way it has been for 130+ years. We get a major S/IP about once every four years on average. So, it isn't what I'd call rare. However, it isn't easy to get by any means. The 18Z GFS has storms, but they track a good bit too far north to give N GA anything major.

[Cold Rain]

You say that like winter was not already a disaster for some.

WxSouth

46 minutes ago

Lots of good potential in the upcoming pattern. After the Northeast Blizzard, Valentines Day system will have to be watched for MidSouth to MidAtlantic and then Northeast again, then after that the Euro and GFS are cooking up another huge system that dives down to the Gulf of Mexico and up the East Coast next weekend as a possible Monster not seen on that widescale in many, many years. That one could drop snow very far south.

I said it to reflect the model's solution after truncation. It's the LR 18Z GFS. I don't really put much stock in anything it shows in the LR. Just commenting on the model, that's all.

And a point of translation, the Midsouth is not most of GA, SC, or NC, outside the western parts of the state. Certainly, there is potential for all of these areas, but I still think that TN, northern MS, northern AL, and northern GA, up through NW SC, the western 3rd of NC and most of VA stands the best shot over the next couple of weeks.

[franklin NCwx]

I said it to reflect the model's solution after truncation. It's the LR 18Z GFS. I don't really put much stock in anything it shows in the LR. Just commenting on the model, that's all.

And a point of translation, the Midsouth is not most of GA, SC, or NC, outside the western parts of the state. Certainly, there is potential for all of these areas, but I still think that TN, northern MS, northern AL, and northern GA, up through NW SC, the western 3rd of NC and most of VA stands the best shot over the next couple of weeks.

am I in the mid south?

[franklin NCwx]

After the storm, the rest of the run is a disaster.

toss it, toss it as far as you can.

[WeatherNC]

 I still think that TN, northern MS, northern AL, and northern GA, up through NW SC, the western 3rd of NC and most of VA stands the best shot over the next couple of weeks.

 

Agree, would highlight N AL/GA, TN looks golden next 2 weeks, upstate, west of 77 in NC, and most of VA...  We (central and eastern portions of the Carolinas) would need a system to be shunted OTS, and early indications are for storm tracks up the seaboard.  I know most are fans of ULL's, but I would rather see a deep trough stay open as long as possible, help to setup the cold core conveyer with heights crashing on the backside, rather than the spotty convective nature often seen in ULLs with an attendant cold pool aloft.

[WeatherNC]

am I in the mid south?

 

Unsure, NC is considered the MA per HPC.

 

[franklin NCwx]

Thanks weather, I had heard that before. I always considered va part of the south

[DixieBlizzard]

I love that graphic because Blue Ridge, GA (as an example) is in the same region as Miami!

[Snowless in Carrollton]

am I in the mid south?

Mid South is TN/ NC. Deep South is MS, GA, AL,SC, FL. Upper South is KY/VA/ WV.