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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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"The fact that the GFS has shown the H5 closed off again at 114-117hrs,having lost it for a couple of runs, should give the Tennessee folks something to ponder.  As Burger noted, a new feature at 189hrs gives Atlanta (as well as, don't laugh, Panama City, (where is PCBjr?), snow. (no soundings to support this, just the 850 line.)"

 

 

 

    And this is a staple of the GFS that has been missing for a long while :)  Seriously, when the 0 line finds Fla on the Goofy, then some cold air maybe poised to penetrate the deep south, instead of the sideswipe,  and it's had it for a good while now.  Larry thinks it's a bit soon, and I wonder, as it's come forward a few frames a day, and climo has been a better predictor overall, but I won't be the least surprised, in general, if Larry's right, and winter is about to begin in earnest.  Meanwhile, I'm getting rains...had a bit a little while ago..and as long as that keeps up, there are chances until the last freeze. 

 And a Fla. crossing gom low will be just the ticket to get me in happy land, because even 33 and rain, beats 43 and rain like I had yesterday...but I ain't complaining, lol. T

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Nothing. Winter was cancelled, remember?

I don't actually. This is a farce or strawman to suggest a person or group of posters have cancelled winter. I challenge you or anyone else to show one post showing this. This arguement is not healthy and flat out not true save for a troll or someone joking.

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In reply to dsar:

 

"The fact that the GFS has shown the H5 closed off again at 114-117hrs,having lost it for a couple of runs, should give the Tennessee folks something to ponder.  As Burger noted, a new feature at 189hrs gives Atlanta (as well as, don't laugh, Panama City, (where is PCBjr?), snow. (no soundings to support this, just the 850 line.)"

 

I'm in Gainesville, FL just praying for a chance at a road trip. It's been since 1989 that snow stuck here, and 3 years since we've even seen flurries, and since 1899 (yes - 1899) when we actually had a real snow (not that I remember it, of course).

 

Anyway, I'm model hugging and at least hoping for a reason to get the GMC on the road ....

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I don't actually. This is a farce or strawman to suggest a person or group of posters have cancelled winter. I challenge you or anyone else to show one post showing this. This arguement is not healthy and flat out not true save for a troll or someone joking.

Careful.  You'll be a "Nancy".

 

 

Ray Barone: When you talk like that people could get offended. 

Frank Barone: What in the hell you talking about? 

Ray Barone: When you say Nancy. What are you implying exactly? 

Frank Barone: That your name should be Nancy. 

Ray Barone: And that's your word for gay? 

Frank Barone: Very well. 

Ray Barone: So you mean that as an insult. 

Frank Barone: Yes I believe I do. 

Ray Barone: I'm just saying that's not very nice. 

Frank Barone: That's why it's a good insult.

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In reply to dsar:

 

"The fact that the GFS has shown the H5 closed off again at 114-117hrs,having lost it for a couple of runs, should give the Tennessee folks something to ponder.  As Burger noted, a new feature at 189hrs gives Atlanta (as well as, don't laugh, Panama City, (where is PCBjr?), snow. (no soundings to support this, just the 850 line.)"

 

I'm in Gainesville, FL just praying for a chance at a road trip. It's been since 1989 that snow stuck here, and 3 years since we've even seen flurries, and since 1899 (yes - 1899) when we actually had a real snow (not that I remember it, of course).

 

Anyway, I'm model hugging and at least hoping for a reason to get the GMC on the road ....

That's Shacks quote...I messed up my posting a reply to it :)  But, yeah, you guys often find snow in suppressed flows where the rest of us stay dry.  Just need the deep dipping cold air, instead of these infernal drive by's.  I used to see sleet or snow in Pensacola in Nov. back in the days I did art shows down there.   Get that good cross polar flow right down into the gulf, and stuff can happen :).

 It wouldn't bother me to see the SE Ridge disappear for a few years either, lol.  I'd love a cold/cool summer without a smog cap, for a change, and I'm so danged tired of the up an overs.   T

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We have 2 (and Cheez was close)

 

I don't actually. This is a farce or strawman to suggest a person or group of posters have cancelled winter. I challenge you or anyone else to show one post showing this. This arguement is not healthy and flat out not true save for a troll or someone joking.

 

I have little hope after this current NW flow pattern ends, at least through mid Feb- the teleconnections are mostly against us with positive AO and NAO on the Euro ensembles and the Pacific getting bad for a while also. Even if the EPAC ridge shifts east with time later next week, all it may bring is a shift back to NW flow and colder but here in GA unless we get some sort of a strong digging trough/closed low situation later Feb or early March, I am close to throwing in the towel.

 

I can't believe I am saying this, but I have beat Cheeze to punch....  I have already thrown in the towel!

 

Yea...I hear ya...see ya'll next winter!  :)

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I like the look of the 12z for the V-Day timeframe. But it's probably going to be elevation driven, like many Tennessee events. Feel better if you live above 1200 feet. 

 

To me it's been a great pattern since Mid January. I've managed 8+ inches of snow and about .30 inches of freezing rain since. Now have another threat coming on Feb 13-15 and another a few days later.

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I don't actually. This is a farce or strawman to suggest a person or group of posters have cancelled winter. I challenge you or anyone else to show one post showing this. This arguement is not healthy and flat out not true save for a troll or someone joking.

 

I think people get confused when people like you and me (theoretically speaking) cancel December or January. They then think winter is either cancelled and promote someone who said winter was never over to feel better. Just lots of confusion all around pretty much. There may have been an isolated 1 or 2 people who cancelled winter that messed with their emotions early on at the same time when I was being pessimistic about a certain month. = mass confusion 

 

EDIT...appears the only people who cancelled winter were in Georgia. 

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dsaur ^

 

Our best bet is a closed low that creates it's own cold; after that, the 2nd choice is a good arctic front with a low that swings the state below Orlando.

 

Don't see either this year.

 

Art shows in P'coala - what a nice memory.

 

Did one in St. Pete outside in '84 in March and it never got above 40º.

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I think people get confused when people like you and me (theoretically speaking) cancel December or January. They then think winter is either cancelled and promote someone who said winter was never over to feel better. Just lots of confusion all around pretty much. There may have been an isolated 1 or 2 people who cancelled winter that messed with their emotions early on at the same time when I was being pessimistic about a certain month. = mass confusion

EDIT...appears the only people who cancelled winter were in Georgia.

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