superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro at hr 216. OMG, folks, let's just hope that the Euro sticks with this solution for more than one run! 998 mb SLP off the coast of ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 right on cue...the EURO goes gang busters at 216 for the DEEP south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LOL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know I'll get killed for saying this but I actually buy what the Euro is selling. GFS is on board for this time frame with cold enough air and storms rolling through the GOM.....this time period has major potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know I'll get killed for saying this but I actually buy what the Euro is selling. GFS is on board for this time frame with cold enough air and storms rolling through the GOM.....this time period has major potential. I like this timeframe a lot more than V Day. Weekend Rule FTW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I tend to agree. Can you talk about what happens between 192 and 216? Looks like cold air barely arrives in time? I know I'll get killed for saying this but I actually buy what the Euro is selling. GFS is on board for this time frame with cold enough air and storms rolling through the GOM.....this time period has major potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know I'll get killed for saying this but I actually buy what the Euro is selling. GFS is on board for this time frame with cold enough air and storms rolling through the GOM.....this time period has major potential. The LR models (GFS, EURO) are really starting to sniff something out in the 192-216hr timeframe. This could be what many have been waiting for for a couple of years. I wouldn't get overly excited quite yet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Good lord, look at that 0C 850 mb line all the way down into central Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I tend to agree. Can you talk about what happens between 192 and 216? Looks like cold air barely arrives in time? I don't have access to the Euro like others do but if the storm is strong enough it will pull in the cold air....they dynamics of a strong system can be amazing at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 WxSouth · 2,652 like this 13 minutes ago · New European has Major snowstorm in the Southeast Feb 16/17 with strong negative tilt, Gulf Low and incoming cold blast. I'll analyze this next potential Deep South/East Coast storm at www.wxsouth.com soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I tend to agree. Can you talk about what happens between 192 and 216? Looks like cold air barely arrives in time? SFC temps are of course as always not quite there. 850's look good though it looks like we get a phase with some northern energy coming in behind and the storm just bombs out....I hate the SV maps though as it doesn't do well showing individual pieces of energy. Check your PM box in a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The LR models (GFS, EURO) are really starting to sniff something out in the 192-216hr timeframe. This could be what many have been waiting for for a couple of years. I wouldn't get overly excited quite yet, though. The op euro is on it's own for both storms next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The op euro is on it's own for both storms next week. I don't know if there will be a big dog but last night the Euro was very close to this kind of solution. To me based on the last few runs of the GFS and now the Euro having something like this just says we could finally be in luck....will it happen? Probably not but heck it sure looks like there is a real chance somewhere in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The op euro is on it's own for both storms next week. The GFS shows a huge trough and low off of the US coast at the same time as the Euro, so like I said, BOTH models are trying to sniff out something! I haven't seen the ensembles yet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know I'll get killed for saying this but I actually buy what the Euro is selling. GFS is on board for this time frame with cold enough air and storms rolling through the GOM.....this time period has major potential. Burger man, you know I won't "kill" ya. I have been on something in this time frame for three weeks when everyone around us was jumping the cliffs. Will it, or something similar happen? I don't know, but you can no longer argue the "potential" that is present and that's a giant step forward from where we have been the better part of the last two years. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS has showed some potential around the 192-216 hour time period for awhile now, so it's not like the Euro is out on its own while the GFS is showing a Lakes Cutter. Will it happen? I don't know. Maybe it's just another mythical storm like we saw from the Euro a few weeks ago. If it shows up again on the Euro at 0z, then we can start taking it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS shows a huge trough and low off of the US coast at the same time as the Euro, so like I said, BOTH models are trying to sniff out something! I haven't seen the ensembles yet, though. I agree there is a good chance of some type of storm next weekend. The gfs was weird with it's solution over ND! But, the euro could be right. But at 120 hours it's different than the CMC, ukie, and the gfs for the storm around V-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Here are the euro ensembles from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Today's 12z gfs ensembles valid hour 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I agree there is a good chance of some type of storm next weekend. The gfs was weird with it's solution over ND! But, the euro could be right. But at 120 hours it's different than the CMC, ukie, and the gfs for the storm around V-day. I'm not sure the V-day storm is going to benefit many in the SE....too many things have to come together for it to happen. Maybe the Tn valley..... I've been paying VERY CLOSE attention to next weekend, mainly because I'm running the Myrtle Beach marathon. This could throw a big wrench in the works! I'm just hoping, if something were to occur, it would happen later Sat night or Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm not sure the V-day storm is going to benefit many in the SE....too many things have to come together for it to happen. Maybe the Tn valley..... I've been paying VERY CLOSE attention to next weekend, mainly because I'm running the Myrtle Beach marathon. This could throw a big wrench in the works! I'm just hoping, if something were to occur, it would happen later Sat night or Sun. I agree, the v-day storm is a long shot. Even over here in the mtn's on the west side of the divide. That should be a red flag for how boderline it is. I think prob's are high for some type of storm nextweekend. We will see if the euro leads the way, or if it's one of it's many weenie solutions it has had for the southeast over the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Folks, For the first time since that one dream run for N GA a couple of weeks ago and another big *fwiw*, the 12Z 2/8 Euro wallops the ATL-AHN corridor with 4-6" of snow (4" S burbs to 6" N burbs) falling over about a nine hour period (Sun. 2/17 within ~midnight to noon), which would be considered a major snowfall for this area. Of course, we all know that the chances of this verifying for ATL-AHN (with it being nine days out as well knowing the rarity of this in this area) even closely in and near 2/17 are extremely small..under 5%. A snow of this caliber is about a one in four year occurrence in this area and models this far out almost never verify closely with winter storms, regardless. However, besides great entertainment, this shows what could happen if everything just happens to line up very well. More importantly, this illustrates the type of track that has given the ATL-AHN corridor most of its major snows in the past 100+ years: a GOM Miller A usually not that strong and often weak surface low that moves anywhere from eastward to northeastward across the GOM and then usually over the N half of the FL peninsula (varying between central FL pen. and GA/FL border to SE GA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well, it will all come down to how strong and how far south a shortwave can dig. If it doesn't dig enough, it turns into more of an arctic front with cold air behind. GFS Ensemble members a few days back where advertising more of the Miller A / SE coastal look, but have trended more north with the low, with the cold air coming in behind (with maybe a weak low spinning-up along the arctic boundary)....while the Euro previously kept the ridging more out in the Pacific, with the trough axis centered farther west...but now has the Pacific ridge pushing inland into the west coast, and trough axis farther east...so, indeed, the two have trended toward each other (aka, a blend). The 12z GFS Ensemble mean was as deep with the trough as I've seen it over the past several days...not as deep as you'd like to see (i.e. would like it farther south), but improved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Capital Weather Gang on NE Blizzard Great read http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/northeast-blizzard-the-science-behind-the-storm/2013/02/08/38882a84-7217-11e2-8b8d-e0b59a1b8e2a_blog.html (Source: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/299972899643736065) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SFC temps are of course as always not quite there. 850's look good though it looks like we get a phase with some northern energy coming in behind and the storm just bombs out....I hate the SV maps though as it doesn't do well showing individual pieces of energy. Check your PM box in a minute. This was just posted by Brad Panovich. I'm just copying straight from his page with his image. If this image is not allowed, please delete mods, but he released it to the public first, so I assume it is okay. Hour 216 of the latest ECMWF: On second thought, I'll just self-edit and link to the image. Here's the link to his Google page with the map: https://plus.google.com/photos/115333506137843021021/albums/5842658377101539745?authkey=CI-32Z-Sl6KnyQE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS snowfall for next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS snowfall for next weekend... ??? Map? What are you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 CPC today has backed off of east coast below average - now has us statistically seasonal at 6 - 14 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 CPC today has backed off of east coast below average - now has us statistically seasonal at 6 - 14 days out. With above normal moisture from the Gulf up the East Coast as California dries out back west. Not seen this in a long time either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 hmmmmmm What is all the fuss about today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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