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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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I know I'll get killed for saying this but I actually buy what the Euro is selling. GFS is on board for this time frame with cold enough air and storms rolling through the GOM.....this time period has major potential. 

I like this timeframe a lot more than V Day. Weekend Rule FTW!!!

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I tend to agree. Can you talk about what happens between 192 and 216? Looks like cold air barely arrives in time?

I know I'll get killed for saying this but I actually buy what the Euro is selling. GFS is on board for this time frame with cold enough air and storms rolling through the GOM.....this time period has major potential. 

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I know I'll get killed for saying this but I actually buy what the Euro is selling. GFS is on board for this time frame with cold enough air and storms rolling through the GOM.....this time period has major potential. 

 

 

The LR models (GFS, EURO) are really starting to sniff something out in the 192-216hr timeframe. This could be what many have been waiting for for a couple of years. I wouldn't get overly excited quite yet, though.

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I tend to agree. Can you talk about what happens between 192 and 216? Looks like cold air barely arrives in time?

 

SFC temps are of course as always not quite there. 850's look good though it looks like we get a phase with some northern energy coming in behind and the storm just bombs out....I hate the SV maps though as it doesn't do well showing individual pieces of energy. Check your PM box in a minute. 

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The op euro is on it's own for both storms next week.

 

I don't know if there will be a big dog but last night the Euro was very close to this kind of solution. To me based on the last few runs of the GFS and now the Euro having something like this just says we could finally be in luck....will it happen? Probably not but heck it sure looks like there is a real chance somewhere in the LR. 

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I know I'll get killed for saying this but I actually buy what the Euro is selling. GFS is on board for this time frame with cold enough air and storms rolling through the GOM.....this time period has major potential. 

 

 

Burger man, you know I won't "kill" ya.  I have been on something in this time frame for three weeks when everyone around us was jumping the cliffs.  Will it, or something similar happen?  I don't know, but you can no longer argue the "potential" that is present and that's a giant step forward from where we have been the better part of the last two years.  JMO

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The GFS has showed some potential around the 192-216 hour time period for awhile now, so it's not like the Euro is out on its own while the GFS is showing a Lakes Cutter.

 

Will it happen?  I don't know.  Maybe it's just another mythical storm like we saw from the Euro a few weeks ago.  If it shows up again on the Euro at 0z, then we can start taking it seriously. :)

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The GFS shows a huge trough and low off of the US coast at the same time as the Euro, so like I said, BOTH models are trying to sniff out something!  I haven't seen the ensembles yet, though.

 

f204.gif

I agree there is a good chance of some type of storm next weekend. The gfs was weird with it's solution over ND! But, the euro could be right. But at 120 hours it's different than the CMC, ukie, and the gfs for the storm around V-day.

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I agree there is a good chance of some type of storm next weekend. The gfs was weird with it's solution over ND! But, the euro could be right. But at 120 hours it's different than the CMC, ukie, and the gfs for the storm around V-day.

 

I'm not sure the V-day storm is going to benefit many in the SE....too many things have to come together for it to happen.  Maybe the Tn valley.....

 

I've been paying VERY CLOSE attention to next weekend, mainly because I'm running the Myrtle Beach marathon. This could throw a big wrench in the works! I'm just hoping, if something were to occur, it would happen later Sat night or Sun. 

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I'm not sure the V-day storm is going to benefit many in the SE....too many things have to come together for it to happen.  Maybe the Tn valley.....

 

I've been paying VERY CLOSE attention to next weekend, mainly because I'm running the Myrtle Beach marathon. This could throw a big wrench in the works! I'm just hoping, if something were to occur, it would happen later Sat night or Sun. 

I agree, the v-day storm is a long shot. Even over here in the mtn's on the west side of the divide. That should be a red flag for how boderline it is. I think prob's are high for some type of storm nextweekend. We will see if the euro leads the way, or if it's one of it's many weenie solutions  it has had for the southeast over the last  couple of years.

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Folks,

 For the first time since that one dream run for N GA a couple of weeks ago and another big *fwiw*, the 12Z 2/8 Euro wallops the ATL-AHN corridor with 4-6" of snow (4" S burbs to 6" N burbs) falling over about a nine hour period (Sun. 2/17 within ~midnight to noon), which would be considered a major snowfall for this area. Of course, we all know that the chances of this verifying for ATL-AHN (with it being nine days out as well knowing the rarity of this in this area) even closely in and near 2/17 are extremely small..under 5%. A snow of this caliber is about a one in four year occurrence in this area and models this far out almost never verify closely with winter storms, regardless. However, besides great entertainment, this shows what could happen if everything just happens to line up very well. More importantly, this illustrates the type of track that has given the ATL-AHN corridor most of its major snows in the past 100+ years: a GOM Miller A usually not that strong and often weak surface low that moves anywhere from eastward to northeastward across the GOM and then usually over the N half of the FL peninsula (varying between central FL pen. and GA/FL border to SE GA).

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Well, it will all come down to how strong and how far south a shortwave can dig.  If it doesn't dig enough, it turns into more of an arctic front with cold air behind.  GFS Ensemble members a few days back where advertising more of the Miller A / SE coastal look, but have trended more north with the low, with the cold air coming in behind (with maybe a weak low spinning-up along the arctic boundary)....while the Euro previously kept the ridging more out in the Pacific, with the trough axis centered farther west...but now has the Pacific ridge pushing inland into the west coast, and trough axis farther east...so, indeed, the two have trended toward each other (aka, a blend).

 

The 12z GFS Ensemble mean was as deep with the trough as I've seen it over the past several days...not as deep as you'd like to see (i.e. would like it farther south), but improved...

 

 

gfsens.gif
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SFC temps are of course as always not quite there. 850's look good though it looks like we get a phase with some northern energy coming in behind and the storm just bombs out....I hate the SV maps though as it doesn't do well showing individual pieces of energy. Check your PM box in a minute. 

 

This was just posted by Brad Panovich.  I'm just copying straight from his page with his image.  If this image is not allowed, please delete mods, but he released it to the public first, so I assume it is okay.  Hour 216 of the latest ECMWF:

 

On second thought, I'll just self-edit and link to the image.

 

Here's the link to his Google page with the map:

 

https://plus.google.com/photos/115333506137843021021/albums/5842658377101539745?authkey=CI-32Z-Sl6KnyQE

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