February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[rduwx]

I agree....all I try to do is point out what the long range models are showing/not showing. If its showing warm, I will discuss that too. I think the issue has been the models have been a bit quick to bring in cold air masses all winter, only to push them off for a week or two, so were stuck talking about it for a long time. Eventually, some become frustrated or simply give up.

 

LR is not an exact science by any means and probably won't be for the foreseeable future. It's still fun to watch...sort of like peering into a crystal ball.  

I agree with this...If we can't discuss LR or possible storms coming down the pipe then I'm affraid the SE portion of AmericanWX is doomed. We don't have enough storms to not talk about LR patterns and storms. I think the problem arrives when some start believing the hr 240 euro is the gospel instead of just something to discuss. Weather you beleive something is going to happen or not, you should be able to discuss it here. That's what a weather board is about.

[BIG FROSTY]

I agree with this...If we can't discuss LR or possible storms coming down the pipe then I'm affraid the SE portion of AmericanWX is doomed. We don't have enough storms to not talk about LR patterns and storms. I think the problem arrives when some start believing the hr 240 euro is the gospel instead of just something to discuss. Weather you beleive something is going to happen or not, you should be able to discuss it here. That's what a weather board is about.

 

+1  What the heck is a weather board for if you can't discuss LR? It has become rather silly all the negativity toward people discussing LR!!! jmo

[NCsandhills]

Yes, it only takes one storm. But we have heard this all winter, and I just don't see it happening for the Raleigh area, especially since most of our good snow storms since 2000 have happened in December and January.

 

 

We really have been hearing it all winter.  In Dec people were saying oh yes early to mid Jan looks great!  Then early Jan hits...oh yes, late Jan to early Feb looks great! Early Feb hits and true, NE is going to get pounded...but they were saying this in the SE forum. But that's okay.  I understand how difficult it is to try and make accurate predictions for the LR, especially considering how funky the models have been this winter!  Just disappointing, only winter weather event I've encountered here so far was the 1/25 ice storm in which I wrecked my car!

 

Anyways...06z GFS not showing anything too interesting to my completely untrained eye.  However, hr 216 seems to have a decent trough from central TN to central NC coming in from the midwest. (am I correct about this?  I'm a beginner, would like to learn as much as I can!) bringing in some cold to NC.  But I don't see any low pressure except the one in New Enlgnad.  So does this mean it's just going to be cold and dry?  

 

It's showing a 990 low centered around Minneapolis though, does that mean snow for them?  It looks nice on the map! Lol

 

Anyways, any hints and tips would be appreciated

[SnowNiner]

GFS Ensembles overnight continue to look really good IMO; ridging just off the coast, ridging in western Greenland/eastern Canada lower 48 in lower heights (solid -NAO) and a split flow.  It runs from about 144 (VDay) through truncation and beyond.  At the end it looks like it wants to pump up the SE ridge a bit, but other than that it looks decent I think?.  Haven't checked EURO ensembles yet, but I'm just curious that the GFS has stuck to it's guns on this pattern for so long.  Usually it would have folded by now. Is it right? I still doubt it. 

 

 

In regard to long range, it's quite simple for me.  As long as everybody talks in opinions rather than absolutes it's not an issue.  There's a big difference in saying what I "think" is going to happen because of X, and saying this is "probably" what "is" going to happen.  I think that's where some get tripped up in what they think is going to happen becomes law; people disagree, we don't get snow, butting heads, etc and mass hysteria!!

[NCStateMMY]

I agree with this...If we can't discuss LR or possible storms coming down the pipe then I'm affraid the SE portion of AmericanWX is doomed. We don't have enough storms to not talk about LR patterns and storms. I think the problem arrives when some start believing the hr 240 euro is the gospel instead of just something to discuss. Weather you beleive something is going to happen or not, you should be able to discuss it here. That's what a weather board is about.

 

Also, let's remember, meterology is a SCIENCE.  We need to take the data we are given as it is and discuss and debate.  Getting frustrated and lashing out because the long range says one thing then the short range becomes something else is not constructive or mature.  The science advances through trial and error and observation.

[NCsandhills]

wow, whats with the 12z euro changing so quickly from hr 216 to 240?  goes from 1017 to 972 right of NJ coast?  Is that normal? although the 12z GFS does have it strengthen pretty quickly from hrs 252-264 as well.  

[Brick Tamland]

Here's the state map for that event...

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040227.gif

 

That was a good one in February. Still, since 2000, most of the big winter weather events for Raleigh have happened in December and January.

[Cold Rain]

Why is it taboo to talk about the long range portion of computer models if they are not takin at verbatim? (almost all of the seasoned posters know to take them with a grain of salt) This is a forum to discuss weather isn't it? I don't understand this.

It's not. In fact, you'll find most support it for the very reasons mentioned above. It's fun and interesting. Picking out a storm 384 hrs out and proclaiming a legitimate threat for a SE winter storm is probably wishcasting and is frowned upon. I think most everyone would agree with that. And you'll notice that only a handful of folks give grief about LR discussions. It's probably because they're tired of hearing about the possibility of cold patterns that never seem to come.

That said, I don't see any evidence of a sustained cold pattern over the next 10 days. Western ridging on the Op 0Z GFS and Euro, which show either the ridge remaining too far west or a transient ridge. At the very end of the GFS, once again, it teases with a Greenland block. Unfortunately, that feature continues to remain in fantasy land, never getting any closer.

As far as the Euro, no sustained cold pattern there either. It does show another southern system that looks too warm for most of NC, SC, and GA because we're missing guess what? A good high pressure.

So what you have, verbatim in the modeling is no legitimate reason to expect a cold pattern anytime soon and no legitimate winter threat for most. That could change this afternoon, but it doesn't seem very likely does it?

[franklin NCwx]

It's not. In fact, you'll find most support it for the very reasons mentioned above. It's fun and interesting. Picking out a storm 384 hrs out and proclaiming a legitimate threat for a SE winter storm is probably wishcasting and is frowned upon. I think most everyone would agree with that. And you'll notice that only a handful of folks give grief about LR discussions. It's probably because they're tired of hearing about the possibility of cold patterns that never seem to come.

That said, I don't see any evidence of a sustained cold pattern over the next 10 days. Western ridging on the Op 0Z GFS and Euro, which show either the ridge remaining too far west or a transient ridge. At the very end of the GFS, once again, it teases with a Greenland block. Unfortunately, that feature continues to remain in fantasy land, never getting any closer.

As far as the Euro, no sustained cold pattern there either. It does show another southern system that looks too warm for most of NC, SC, and GA because we're missing guess what? A good high pressure.

So what you have, verbatim in the modeling is no legitimate reason to expect a cold pattern anytime soon and no legitimate winter threat for most. That could change this afternoon, but it doesn't seem very likely does it?

For the past few days the ensembles have started to hint at a west based nao. Nothing really strong, but hey, it's better than a positive. Let's see if it pans out this time.

 

 

[Stovepipe]

There are a handful of people around here (including a variety of colored name tags) that have been going beyond naysaying and venturing into trolling territory.  By far the majority of SE posters have been discussing the long range sensibly and I've seen very little "wishcasting" going on.  The handful of people are trying, for whatever reason, to squelch discussion and the best thing to do is add them to the ignore list.  Getting emotional either way (positive or negative) over what the models are showing is silly.  Some of you need to cut the hyperbole, it's getting old.  The rest of the adults will continue the weather discussion on the weather forum.

[franklin NCwx]

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

 

SOI values for 08 Feb 2013 Average for last 30 days -8.0 Average for last 90 days -4.4 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -23.7

 

Monthly average SOI values November 3.8 December -7.4 January -0.3

updated soi values.

[griteater]

Agree with the posts above.  It's not the posts with analysis showing that it's going to be warm and non-wintry...there's nothing at all wrong with that...it's the condescending and attacking posts that suck on here....the best course of action is to probably just ignore them if at all possible.

 

Anyway....here's the overnight Euro Ensemble mean at day 8, and it kind of summarizes this whole winter.  It's a classic look for a -PDO, weak La Nina (or neutral with weak La Nina hangover).  Ridging south of Alaska / off the west coast, with trough axis over the Rockies.  It's not a torch (i.e. it's not a huge east coast ridge), but it's one where getting a storm to produce wintry precip requires a big -NAO block or well timed confluence to our north to provide enough cold air, as storms will want to track to our north.  The NAO has averaged out around neutral for the winter thus far, and that's not going to cut it in this PDO/ENSO regime.  The NOAA re-analysis site is down right now, but a few days ago I looked at the composite 500mb pattern thus far for the winter, and it looked very similar to this Euro Ens map below.

 

 

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/651/euroens8.gif/'>

[Cold Rain]

For the past few days the ensembles have started to hint at a west based nao. Nothing really strong, but hey, it's better than a positive. Let's see if it pans out this time.

I hope it works out, but it needs to work into the 7 day time frame and move in from there before it's wise to trust it, IMO.

[SnowNiner]

Agree with the posts above.  It's not the posts with analysis showing that it's going to be warm and non-wintry...there's nothing at all wrong with that...it's the condescending and attacking posts that suck on here....the best course of action is to probably just ignore them if at all possible.

 

Anyway....here's the overnight Euro Ensemble mean at day 8, and it kind of summarizes this whole winter.  It's a classic look for a -PDO, weak La Nina (or neutral with weak La Nina hangover).  Ridging south of Alaska / off the west coast, with trough axis over the Rockies.  It's not a torch (i.e. it's not a huge east coast ridge), but it's one where getting a storm to produce wintry precip requires a big -NAO block or well timed confluence to our north to provide enough cold air, as storms will want to track to our north.  The NAO has averaged out around neutral for the winter thus far, and that's not going to cut it in this PDO/ENSO regime.  The NOAA re-analysis site is down right now, but a few days ago I looked at the composite 500mb pattern thus far for the winter, and it looked very similar to this Euro Ens map below.

 

 

 

Agree with this.  That's my thought as well, it hasn't been the pacific really to blame because we have had -EPO and +PNA at times, we just haven't had the -NAO to go along with it.  Not at all this year.  Atlantic then is the issue IMO, not the pacific.  Now if you believe the ensembles, we're going to get a -NAO, but the +PNA is going to be hard to come by.  It seems we can not get the +PNA and -NAO to come together; that seems to be the combo to look for next year.  That's what I'll be looking for anyway.   

[franklin NCwx]

Agree with the posts above.  It's not the posts with analysis showing that it's going to be warm and non-wintry...there's nothing at all wrong with that...it's the condescending and attacking posts that suck on here....the best course of action is to probably just ignore them if at all possible.

 

Anyway....here's the overnight Euro Ensemble mean at day 8, and it kind of summarizes this whole winter.  It's a classic look for a -PDO, weak La Nina (or neutral with weak La Nina hangover).  Ridging south of Alaska / off the west coast, with trough axis over the Rockies.  It's not a torch (i.e. it's not a huge east coast ridge), but it's one where getting a storm to produce wintry precip requires a big -NAO block or well timed confluence to our north to provide enough cold air, as storms will want to track to our north.  The NAO has averaged out around neutral for the winter thus far, and that's not going to cut it in this PDO/ENSO regime.  The NOAA re-analysis site is down right now, but a few days ago I looked at the composite 500mb pattern thus far for the winter, and it looked very similar to this Euro Ens map below.

 

 

Grit, this goes back to what I posted last week when the ensembles starting showing a nice ridge in the Pacific. We can have a great Pacifice pattern with an active stj, but without a block everything could go west, or over us. We really need this forecasted -nao to start panning out.

[griteater]

Grit, this goes back to what I posted last week when the ensembles starting showing a nice ridge in the Pacific. We can have a great Pacifice pattern with an active stj, but without a block everything could go west, or over us. We really need this forecasted -nao to start panning out.

 

Yep, I recall your posts in this regard...I agree.

[franklin NCwx]

I hope it works out, but it needs to work into the 7 day time frame and move in from there before it's wise to trust it, IMO.

It's into the 5 day now. But your right, hard to trust it. It's been the gold at the end of the rainbow all winter except for the short period in Dec. Does that mean it won't pan out this time? No, but it would be nice to see a -3std nao for a few weeks.

[griteater]

It's into the 5 day now. But your right, hard to trust it. It's been the gold at the end of the rainbow all winter except for the short period in Dec. Does that mean it won't pan out this time? No, but it would be nice to see a -3std nao for a few weeks.

 

GaWx reported yesterday that the Euro Weeklies had a strong -NAO in weeks 3-4....but as Mr.Bob said, that's a new one and it has to sustain that look

[franklin NCwx]

GaWx reported yesterday that the Euro Weeklies had a strong -NAO in weeks 3-4....but as Mr.Bob said, that's a new one and it has to sustain that look

I agree, The weeklies have been all over the map. They showed for 3-4 runs in a row a great pattern setting up for Feb back in at the end of Jan. That looks to be a bad forecast.  Time will tell, but I would really like to see some west based block since the pna looks to go in the tank.

[packbacker]

The 12z GFS is close to being a winter storm in the SE day 5.

[Cold Rain]

It's into the 5 day now. But your right, hard to trust it. It's been the gold at the end of the rainbow all winter except for the short period in Dec. Does that mean it won't pan out this time? No, but it would be nice to see a -3std nao for a few weeks.

Ok, on BB and can't post images. The NAO charts you posted look good on the surface and are certainly better than a sharp stick in the eye. But they are deceptive. Do this, when you have a few minutes:

Go to Allan's site and look at the OZ GFS ENS NH Mean Height maps (forget about the Anomaly maps) for 120, 168, 240, and 384. That's day 5, 7, 10, and 15.

What do you notice? Low heights over western Greenland and Canada. Not super, duper low like what's on the other side of the globe, but there is zero blocking and no effective -NAO configuration.

Now, look at the 0Z GFS OP NH Mean Height at 384. You will see a block just east of the southern tip of Greenland higher heights into southern Greenland. Certainly a better -NAO look, but not ideal. There is also a nice 50/50, but also a crappy trough in the SW US with no +PNA

Lastly, look at the 18Z GFS OP 336 NH Mean Height map. You see a Greenland block in central and southern Greenland with ridging and higher heights back into eastern and central Canada. This is the kind of -NAO that you want to see. And you want this to move into the 5-7 day time range. If you see this kind of prog in the near term, there are going to be a lot of excited people on this board.

Forget about index charts. If you don't have a look similar to this, you don't have anything...especially when you have a persistently bad Pacific.

[griteater]

Lastly, look at the 18Z GFS OP 336 NH Mean Height map. You see a Greenland block in central and southern Greenland with ridging and higher heights back into eastern and central Canada. This is the kind of -NAO that you want to see. And you want this to move into the 5-7 day time range. If you see this kind of prog in the near term, there are going to be a lot of excited people on this board.

 

Yeah, last 2 runs of 18z GFS have been humdingers with -NAO (in the extended)....but on an island.

[packbacker]

GFS ends up being a big winter storm for NoVA into NY and NE.  Big is relative with what's going on today though, maybe 3-6, 4-8" type event as modeled.  For the SE we need it to dig a little more SE.

[franklin NCwx]

GFS ends up being a big winter storm for NoVA into NY and NE.  Big is relative with what's going on today though, maybe 3-6, 4-8" type event as modeled.  For the SE we need it to dig a little more SE.

It seems to be on the north end of the models. It really never digs the left over cutter energy as much as the other models.

[MillerA]

The 12z GFS is close to being a winter storm in the SE day 5.

Robert just tweeted that mid south snow chances are increasing for next week.

[packbacker]

Robert just tweeted that mid south snow chances are increasing for next week.

 

Lookds good that someone in KY/TN/NC/VA/MD will get a winter storm next week.  I will be in NoVA next week :-), but will be rooting for NC to get in on the action.

[packbacker]

It seems to be on the north end of the models. It really never digs the left over cutter energy as much as the other models.

 

Yep, agreed.  Euro is hot right now let's hope it shows something at 12z.

[franklin NCwx]

Ok, on BB and can't post images. The NAO charts you posted look good on the surface and are certainly better than a sharp stick in the eye. But they are deceptive. Do this, when you have a few minutes:

Go to Allan's site and look at the OZ GFS ENS NH Mean Height maps (forget about the Anomaly maps) for 120, 168, 240, and 384. That's day 5, 7, 10, and 15.

What do you notice? Low heights over western Greenland and Canada. Not super, duper low like what's on the other side of the globe, but there is zero blocking and no effective -NAO configuration.

Now, look at the 0Z GFS OP NH Mean Height at 384. You will see a block just east of the southern tip of Greenland higher heights into southern Greenland. Certainly a better -NAO look, but not ideal. There is also a nice 50/50, but also a crappy trough in the SW US with no +PNA

Lastly, look at the 18Z GFS OP 336 NH Mean Height map. You see a Greenland block in central and southern Greenland with ridging and higher heights back into eastern and central Canada. This is the kind of -NAO that you want to see. And you want this to move into the 5-7 day time range. If you see this kind of prog in the near term, there are going to be a lot of excited people on this board.

Forget about index charts. If you don't have a look similar to this, you don't have anything...especially when you have a persistently bad Pacific.

I see what you are talking about. I seem to be having trouble getting my posts to post. I wrote out a long one that never went thru. Anyways yes, not a classic nao look with a  50/50. Not sure how Allan gets his values.

[burgertime]

GFS does look really good for central TN and parts of eastern TN. 

[franklin NCwx]

Yep, agreed.  Euro is hot right now let's hope it shows something at 12z.

 

 

For some reason I posted this in the banter thread. But, here is the ukie from last night.