February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[NCSNOW]

Stormsfurry excellent point. If I could choose one and only one tc signal to be present every winter it would be a west pacific based El Niño. Don't wont it to close or east based because I've sen them flood the conus with PAC dominated air.

Gawx thanks for clarifying. It will still be close here at Greensboro even with feb 4 - feb 10. Well see how it shakes out. I can almost guarantee your colder than normal March will verify, especially second half of March and April. No matter what, every year you can count on the following. Hot muggy summertime heat with less than desirable rainfall, colder than normal springs after climo cancels out snow opportunities and always a cold Easter. I don't lcare if Easter was celebrated in July it would be cold.

Jburns your right, clock starts ticking fast from here on out. I posted the other day how once February rolls in for me I just look for a storm opportunity and give up evolving into some great extended winter pattern. Last year we pulled the rabbit out of the hat in February to avoid the shutout. This winter weather deficit started in February of 2011 after we had just finished off wall to wall pure winter in 2009/2010 and a great 6-7 week opening stretch 2010/2011. Then the rubberband snapped and since that time we have endured the most horrific stretch of winter weather in my lifetime. It's been 2 long hard years for us snow geese, so hopefully we can get something going and reverse the trend or as beanskip appropriately alludes to the "the streak."

[mackerel_sky]

Yes,I agree,but on the more positive side,look at the summer time lag of temps from the summer solstice.after June 21 ,the days start getting shorter but the worst heat usually hits in Aug.so with the days getting longer and averages rising,there is still hope that some cold air from the other side of the world can get here and give us those 20 below normal departures we need to finish off this winter with a bang!

Our normals have now begun to climb. From this point on, each week will require a further negative departure from normal to produce winter precip. The clock is ticking

[superjames1992]

0z GFS is very close to popping a fantasy superstorm around Valentine's Day, FWIW.

 

Long-range GFS looks pretty great, though, IMO.

[dsaur]

We haven't seen a lot of true split flow this winter. What we have seen is a lot of northern stream energy (which will probably continue). As a result, we've seen low pressure move across the northern tier, move through the lakes region, and often intensify once moving off the coast. This helps to create a psuedo 50/50, that due to the lack of blocking, has been rather transient. So instead of HP building in and locking in for long periods across the Lakes and NE, it has generally moved out. Unfortunately, given the lack of a STJ, we have had very little opportunity for precipitation when these periods of transitory HP have existed.

The point is, if, IF we get a split flow like the GFS is showing, and if we continue to have an active northern stream, the odds of winter weather will increase substantially, even without blocking. Energy in the STJ will have a good chance of undercutting a cold air mass at some point. Of course, this is all predicated on there being cold air available to tap. If the PV and all the cold retreat to the north pole or Asia, we can probably forget it.

Split flow is my favorite.  I'll take that in winter above all else.  Up the chances when a lot is going against you.  With out a storm in the right place, you've got nothing   And a split flow can bring you one, and cross it where you want it to go.  T

[franklin NCwx]

_{GFS still likes the +pna split-flow pattern. You can see the op has by hour 192 followed by the ensembles.}

[franklin NCwx]

NAEFS followed by the CMC ensembles They like the gfs idea as well.

[wake4est]

Snow falling in Durham, NC this morning at around 6:30.  It was flurries, but still...

[Lookout]

 A good and probably favored possibility is neither of the above..i.e., mild for Feb.. Based on the warm Dec/Jan analogs I've been following, Feb. as a whole is leaning mild with some chance for cooling late.

 

  Fwiw, the just released Euro weeklies have wall to wall above normal temperatures  in the SE US (for all four Feb. weeks). This is the warmest Euro weeklies release since late Dec. No telling if this will verify as the weeklies have been very inconsistent lately. However, based on the analogs, it is quite believable.

 

  Hopefully, those same analogs' favoring of a below normal March, with March quite possibly being the coldest winter month for much of the SE US, will end up prevailing. I don't think winter will end early regardless of what Feb. brings. If anything, a warm Feb. gives me more confidence that the analogs will continue to have predictive value and, therefore, hopefully means that a chilly March will be in store.

Problem with cold (and if we are lucky snow)....snow in march  melts so quickly with the much stronger and higher sun. I was really hoping for a big storm in late dec and jan for that reason. But snow or something in march is better than nothing that's for sure.

 

At any rate, I'm not surprised about the euro weeklies. We simply can't get a favorable ridge out west/trough to the west and over us. Instead we keep getting troughs to the north and northeast with us getting the tail end of them with warm temps/ridge in a terrible position...not to mention the southeast ridge being a pain in the ass..and lack of CAD (as usual).

 

I thought this winter would be better than last year (and in some cases it has been but not here) but so much for that. I know winter is far from over  but right now I'm not optimistic, that's for sure.

[El Kabong]

Still plenty of time left for the pattern to change and produce a good wintry wx event for the SE.  As Larry's analysis has indicated, March actually produces more wintry wx for KATL than December.  Also, the analogs he referenced back on January 1st indicated that the potential for a good March is still on the table, specifically the March 6-16th timeframe.  Larry found 10 notable events, including 2 major snows that occurred during this period in the 14 analog years referenced.

 

On the flip side, Larry also brought up a sobering reminder back in November regarding the total liquid equivalent that falls as wintry precip in half of the KATL winters--2% or less!  The reality that us snow/ice lovers in the deeper part of the South have to accept is that 98% of the time, the precip that falls will be of the liquid variety.  Unfortunately, the past 2 winters it's been 100% for many of us.    

 

For the majority of us in Georgia (especially the non-mountainous areas), the safe bet is to expect rain and if you get something different, jump for joy!   

 

 

[nrgjeff]

So important, it should be bolded a second time.

 

There is really not any cold air anywhere on the euro ensembles. But I would take my chances with a split flow any day. The one problem we could have is even in a split flow everything could cut without any blocking. You are correct with us having mostly northern stream energy all year. It always helps when the vort is south of you.

 

The charts I see remind me of December. Trough in Texas, winter weather in the Plains, and a short-wave ridge in the Southeast. Texas systems smack right into it; and, eject into the Ohio Valley. Vort max to the north. Rain Southeast. Who wants to storm chase the Deep South with me?

 

All that being said, models can err both ways two weeks out. It is near President's Day, lol! OK to hope, but manage expectations.

[ncwinterwxman]

Let's go! 

So important, it should be bolded a second time.

 

 

The charts I see remind me of December. Trough in Texas, winter weather in the Plains, and a short-wave ridge in the Southeast. Texas systems smack right into it; and, eject into the Ohio Valley. Vort max to the north. Rain Southeast. Who wants to storm chase the Deep South with me?

 

All that being said, models can err both ways two weeks out. It is near President's Day, lol! OK to hope, but manage expectations.

[Lookout]

So important, it should be bolded a second time.

 

 

The charts I see remind me of December. Trough in Texas, winter weather in the Plains, and a short-wave ridge in the Southeast. Texas systems smack right into it; and, eject into the Ohio Valley. Vort max to the north. Rain Southeast. Who wants to storm chase the Deep South with me?

 

All that being said, models can err both ways two weeks out. It is near President's Day, lol! OK to hope, but manage expectations.

It's been a real good winter for MS, AR, MS, western TN, etc.

[dsaur]

Still plenty of time left for the pattern to change and produce a good wintry wx event for the SE.  As Larry's analysis has indicated, March actually produces more wintry wx for KATL than December.  Also, the analogs he referenced back on January 1st indicated that the potential for a good March is still on the table, specifically the March 6-16th timeframe.  Larry found 10 notable events, including 2 major snows that occurred during this period in the 14 analog years referenced.

 

On the flip side, Larry also brought up a sobering reminder back in November regarding the total liquid equivalent that falls as wintry precip in half of the KATL winters--2% or less!  The reality that us snow/ice lovers in the deeper part of the South have to accept is that 98% of the time, the precip that falls will be of the liquid variety.  Unfortunately, the past 2 winters it's been 100% for many of us.    

 

For the majority of us in Georgia (especially the non-mountainous areas), the safe bet is to expect rain and if you get something different, jump for joy!   

 

 

 Nice post, El K!  March is a nice long month, and plenty of time for you and me to win way down here, lol.  And it doesn't even need a March 93 to do it.  Even a normal March winter storm can do the work.  A push of cold down to Fla. and a Fla crossing storm, hey presto...but not magic.  T

[franklin NCwx]

It would be great to see the Euro ensembles come around to the GFS/CMC ensembles on the -epo and split flow. Big difference in the models right now. Here are the new GFS ensembles from 12z.

[LithiaWx]

It would be great to see the Euro ensembles come around to the GFS/CMC ensembles on the -epo and split flow. Big difference in the models right now. Here are the new GFS ensembles from 12z.

At least its an ensemble but even so an hour 300 map is almost banter worthy.

[franklin NCwx]

If you are a fan of winter you really want to hug the GFS. I will take this setup 7 days a week!

[GaWx]

Still plenty of time left for the pattern to change and produce a good wintry wx event for the SE.  As Larry's analysis has indicated, March actually produces more wintry wx for KATL than December.  Also, the analogs he referenced back on January 1st indicated that the potential for a good March is still on the table, specifically the March 6-16th timeframe.  Larry found 10 notable events, including 2 major snows that occurred during this period in the 14 analog years referenced.

 

On the flip side, Larry also brought up a sobering reminder back in November regarding the total liquid equivalent that falls as wintry precip in half of the KATL winters--2% or less!  The reality that us snow/ice lovers in the deeper part of the South have to accept is that 98% of the time, the precip that falls will be of the liquid variety.  Unfortunately, the past 2 winters it's been 100% for many of us.    

 

For the majority of us in Georgia (especially the non-mountainous areas), the safe bet is to expect rain and if you get something different, jump for joy!   

 

 

 

  Yeah, now on the northside of ATL, it is close to 3% for the total liquid of Dec.-Mar. on avg. I do want to clarify something. I know I'm getting a bit technical here, but it is actually more than 3% of the time it is precip.'ing it is S, IP, or ZR. That's because the wintry precip. is, on average, falling at slower rates than the non-wintry. precip. So, it may be as much as, say, 5% of the time precip. is falling it is falling as wintry on the northside of Atl. Moreover, that isn't referring to the % of events that are wintry. It is referring to the % of time.

[Tacoma]

If you are a fan of winter you really want to hug the GFS. I will take this setup 7 days a week!

can you give us the link.

[franklin NCwx]

can you give us the link.

Here it is.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html

[El Kabong]

 Nice post, El K!  March is a nice long month, and plenty of time for you and me to win way down here, lol.  And it doesn't even need a March 93 to do it.  Even a normal March winter storm can do the work.  A push of cold down to Fla. and a Fla crossing storm, hey presto...but not magic.  T

Tony,

 

Yeah, those of us on the southside of ATL (in my case south of Macon!) haven't even been within sniffing distance of a wintry event so far.  I'm still holding out hope that Professor Larry's analysis will at least produce a threat before winter is over.  The good news is that we had a good 4-year stretch of at least a minor snow or IP event up until last year's horrible winter.  Our last event in 2011 was mainly of the IP variety...I can certainly agree with you that even a minor accumulation of sleet makes for great sledding!   

 

I wasn't here in February of 1973 when 15-18" of snow fell across central Georgia, but at least it shows that under the right conditions, anybody can get a great snowstorm.  Maybe we're on a 30-year cycle!

 

 

 

  Yeah, now on the northside of ATL, it is close to 3% for the total liquid of Dec.-Mar. on avg. I do want to clarify something. I know I'm getting a bit technical here, but it is actually more than 3% of the time it is precip.'ing it is S, IP, or ZR. That's because the wintry precip. is, on average, falling at slower rates than the non-wintry. precip. So, it may be as much as, say, 5% of the time precip. is falling it is falling as wintry on the northside of Atl.

Larry,

 

Thanks for the technical qualification.  The main point remains the same...precipitation of the wintry variety simply doesn't occur much in our neck of the woods!  I hope that your March analogs will at least provide us with a pattern that just might throw us a bone.  Tracking a "potential" storm, even if it doesn't verify, would be exciting enough at this point!

[Cheeznado]

I have little hope after this current NW flow pattern ends, at least through mid Feb- the teleconnections are mostly against us with positive AO and NAO on the Euro ensembles and the Pacific getting bad for a while also. Even if the EPAC ridge shifts east with time later next week, all it may bring is a shift back to NW flow and colder but here in GA unless we get some sort of a strong digging trough/closed low situation later Feb or early March, I am close to throwing in the towel.

[Tacoma]

Tony,

 

Yeah, those of us on the southside of ATL (in my case south of Macon!) haven't even been within sniffing distance of a wintry event so far.  I'm still holding out hope that Professor Larry's analysis will at least produce a threat before winter is over.  The good news is that we had a good 4-year stretch of at least a minor snow or IP event up until last year's horrible winter.  Our last event in 2011 was mainly of the IP variety...I can certainly agree with you that even a minor accumulation of sleet makes for great sledding!   

 

I wasn't here in February of 1973 when 15-18" of snow fell across central Georgia, but at least it shows that under the right conditions, anybody can get a great snowstorm.  Maybe we're on a 30-year cycle!

 

news_73snow.gif

 

 

Larry,

 

Thanks for the technical qualification.  The main point remains the same...precipitation of the wintry variety simply doesn't occur much in our neck of the woods!  I hope that your March analogs will at least provide us with a pattern that just might throw us a bone.  Tracking a "potential" storm, even if it doesn't verify, would be exciting enough at this point!

yep I remember this storm.  I believe it was forecast for the bulk of this to go over wnc, I believe the bulls eye was around asheville, was predicted for about 20 inches.  if this is the same storm I'm thinking of this was Friday night and I thought I would wake up to a massive snow storm saturday morning and there were only a few sleet pellets.  come to find out the storm had shifted to the south 100 miles or so might have been 200 , a big shift.  boy was I disappointed.  yep n. miss, n. alabama, n. ga. and east tenn. were in line for big snows and they got nothing just like asheville.

[jburns]

_{GFS still likes the +pna split-flow pattern. You can see the op has by hour 192 followed by the ensembles.}

 Why is the type in your posts so small.  Some of us are old.

[franklin NCwx]

 Why is the type in your posts so small.  Some of us are old.

LOL.. I just now noticed that. My oldest is doing a project for school so some of the settings on my laptop are changed. Blasted kids!

[GaWx]

 It looks like KATL may finally hit the middle 20's tonight, which would easily make it the coldest night of the winter to date.

[Tacoma]

 It looks like KATL may finally hit the middle 20's tonight, which would easily make it the coldest night of the winter to date.

low in and around asheville will be around 15, just noticed they raised our snow chance tomorrow night (saturday) 50 percent.

[dsaur]

Tony,

 

Yeah, those of us on the southside of ATL (in my case south of Macon!) haven't even been within sniffing distance of a wintry event so far.  I'm still holding out hope that Professor Larry's analysis will at least produce a threat before winter is over.  The good news is that we had a good 4-year stretch of at least a minor snow or IP event up until last year's horrible winter.  Our last event in 2011 was mainly of the IP variety...I can certainly agree with you that even a minor accumulation of sleet makes for great sledding!   

 

I wasn't here in February of 1973 when 15-18" of snow fell across central Georgia, but at least it shows that under the right conditions, anybody can get a great snowstorm.  Maybe we're on a 30-year cycle!

 

news_73snow.gif

 

 

Larry,

 

Thanks for the technical qualification.  The main point remains the same...precipitation of the wintry variety simply doesn't occur much in our neck of the woods!  I hope that your March analogs will at least provide us with a pattern that just might throw us a bone.  Tracking a "potential" storm, even if it doesn't verify, would be exciting enough at this point!

Yeah, It can happen.  That one still hurts.  I was in Atl, and had just lived through the worst ice storm in history, at least in Atl history, lol.  And here comes the golden storm...Macon got the snow we all dream about, and Atl got squat under partly cloudy.  Tears are rolling down my face even now thinking about it   That one hurt. The one two punch.  Break the city, drag us into the dark ages, then break all hearts...except Macon area hearts. In my minds eye I can still see those nasty kids having the time of their lives sledding on well over a foot of snow in a Macon Park, on the tv machine pictures, while I'm having to clean up all the down limbs from the ice killer, in the sun shine, lol.  It was a bowling ball storm, and even in Orchard Hill, between Griffin and Barnesville, they only got an inch or two.  Not a wide track on that one, and ever since I've hoped to get under one of those!

 

Ted, I don't know if it's the same storm.  I do remember the track was pretty sure a day or so out, and they were talking mid Ga bowling ball.  I don't remember a jump south with it.  But as Burns says I'm old, and maybe I'm miss remembering thru my tears.

 

El K...you need to post more!  Some post too much, some too little. 

  I do appreciate Dr. Larry's feel good prescriptions, but they lately seem to include enjoying the warmth as it may presage some big time cold later.  Well, the last time I could sled on cement was in 05, so I'm way beyond later, lol.  T

[deltadog03]

I have little hope after this current NW flow pattern ends, at least through mid Feb- the teleconnections are mostly against us with positive AO and NAO on the Euro ensembles and the Pacific getting bad for a while also. Even if the EPAC ridge shifts east with time later next week, all it may bring is a shift back to NW flow and colder but here in GA unless we get some sort of a strong digging trough/closed low situation later Feb or early March, I am close to throwing in the towel.

 

I can't believe I am saying this, but I have beat Cheeze to punch....  I have already thrown in the towel!

[pcbjr]

Even progged warm in Alaska ....

 

[ncwinterwxman]

Yea...I hear ya...see ya'll next winter! 

I can't believe I am saying this, but I have beat Cheeze to punch....  I have already thrown in the towel!