February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[GaWx]

Ahh...two of my weather hero's.  The one who nailed the Xmas snow despite any analogs....because there were none for Ga, lol.  And the one who nailed the Sav. snow, because there were some analogs, and clear, to him, climo evidence pointing that way.  CR, you'll see some flakes...you know it's coming, lol. Ga. knows Larry knows Climo knows    T

 

Tony,

 I appreciate the vote of confidence due to Savannah. Watch me bust this time lol.

[superjames1992]

Precip. from Euro weeklies: Week 2 (2/18-24): wet; weeks 3-4 (2/25-3/100: near normal

 

Cold and wet.  Sounds good.

 

However, the Euro Weeklies seem to be flip-flopping all over the place as of late, but I'll take it.

[Mr Bob]

I have seen the ECMWF weekly 850s tonight...Weeks 1 and 2 are cold focused in the west...there is wiggle room in the southeast to go either way but it is normal to below normal....and it is different than previous runs...Weeks 3 and 4 are more eastern cold focused. This is new so will have to be backed up before becoming credible.

[WilkesboroDude]

WxSouth

about an hour ago

 

Big discussion at www.wxsouth.com on this pattern and what the new upcoming pattern will produce. The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to go strongly negative again soon, and now the GFS has strong ridging in southern Greenland , a first this Winter if it happens. Combining this fact with other things like the western Ridge, below normal heights coming to almost all the lower 48 states and the big AO study I did a while back, I'm still sure that some areas of the mid South from northern MS to NC and VA will end up with above normal snowfall on the season. The ensembles have a lot of precip plus cold air in the days 7 through 15 period coming up, and with the overall 5H look over North America, this is about as good as it gets for Winter Storms to affect the MidSouth to MidAtlantic region. 

[superjames1992]

WxSouth

about an hour ago

 

Big discussion at www.wxsouth.com on this pattern and what the new upcoming pattern will produce. The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to go strongly negative again soon, and now the GFS has strong ridging in southern Greenland , a first this Winter if it happens. Combining this fact with other things like the western Ridge, below normal heights coming to almost all the lower 48 states and the big AO study I did a while back, I'm still sure that some areas of the mid South from northern MS to NC and VA will end up with above normal snowfall on the season. The ensembles have a lot of precip plus cold air in the days 7 through 15 period coming up, and with the overall 5H look over North America, this is about as good as it gets for Winter Storms to affect the MidSouth to MidAtlantic region. 

 

That's bold considering some of those areas Robert mentioned have received basically nothing so far this year.

 

Greensboro needs 6" to get to average (~3.25" so far).  Raleigh needs 7.5" (nothing so far except that IP/ZR storm).  Charlotte needs 4-5" (ditto).

 

Of course, all of that could fall in one storm, so you can never discount it.  That's the thing about the South.  You can have a God awful winter, luck out with one good setup, and surpass your seasonal snowfall average just like that.  The winter of 1999-2000 was like that, IIRC.  We pretty much had nothing except the epic wintry period from January 18th-30th, including the Carolina Crusher.  Then it warmed up into the 70s in early February and never looked back on the way to a torching.

[jburns]

Also this was posted on FB.  Sounds like the town where I grew up is about to get slammed.

 

 

 

WxSouth

You've heard this already in many other forecasts, but this is an unbelievable storm. The new NAM model is coming out and now, and by this time tomorrow night the beginnings of probably the greatest snowstorm on record will be underway for northern New Jersey, New York City, and lower New England. By midnight tomorrow night the winds will crank from the northeast and blizzard conditions have already developed. The model is dropping extreme snow rates, and by extreme I mean 3 inches per hour right over New York City. Pure WhiteOut conditions are coming. Already by Saturday morning over 2 feet has fallen in the city and more to come. Just west of New York, in northern New Jersey, yes it shows THREE FEET of snow by Saturday morning. Incredible rates. One thing about the rate of snow--- that is what does utilities and trees in. There is simply no way that structures can shed so much snow in that short of time, so utter destruction will occur if the NAM is right. And the NAM has had the hot hand many times this Winter.

[tarheelwx]

Remember what the models were showing for Boston or even NY just 5 days ago. Boy what a change

Te

[tarheelwx]

Trees and utilities shouldn't be hurt too much since the snow won't be terribly wet and the strong winds will keep it off the trees for the most part. Heavy wet snow, foliage, and lighter winds followed by strong winds at the end of the storm is what does in the utilities.

TW

[rduwx]

The system/storm/energy (whatever you want to call it) on 2/13 shifted south and east on the 0z gfs but of course temps are too warm.

[superjames1992]

18z GFS showed an Apps Cutter for Valentine's Day.  0z GFS shows a Miller A.  Granted, it's not cold enough, in any case, and I don't see how it could trend colder unless we got a magical HP to pop out of nowhere.

 

EDIT: 0z GFS is totally different at hr 177.  I think we might have a big dog on our hands with the GFS.  The energy is much stronger and deeper.  We'll see.

 

EDIT #2: Dallas, TX looks like they get snow, but it looks like it gets sheared out before it gets to us.  Oh, well.  It was quite a bit different than the last few runs, though.

 

I do want to stress for some of our newer posters that this is out in voodoo land, so take it seriously at your own risk.  It'll probably do a 180 before 12z.

[WilkesboroDude]

18z GFS showed an Apps Cutter for Valentine's Day.  0z GFS shows a Miller A.  Granted, it's not cold enough, in any case, and I don't see how it could trend colder unless we got a magical HP to pop out of nowhere.

 

GFS also not cold enough for the current snow falling in WNC on the 18z and 0z. Missing the snow accumulations almost completely. 

[WidreMann]

18z GFS showed an Apps Cutter for Valentine's Day.  0z GFS shows a Miller A.  Granted, it's not cold enough, in any case, and I don't see how it could trend colder unless we got a magical HP to pop out of nowhere.

 

EDIT: 0z GFS is totally different at hr 177.  I think we might have a big dog on our hands with the GFS.  The energy is much stronger and deeper.  We'll see.

 

EDIT #2: Dallas, TX looks like they get snow, but it looks like it gets sheared out before it gets to us.  Oh, well.  It was quite a bit different than the last few runs, though.

 

I do want to stress for some of our newer posters that this is out in voodoo land, so take it seriously at your own risk.  It'll probably do a 180 before 12z.

Mentioning the long-range GFS should be a bannable offense.

[valkhorn]

Mentioning the long-range GFS should be a bannable offense.

 

VDay is less than a week away. It's worth looking at on the GFS. Technically, it's not the long range until it gets into the lower resolutions at 192h. The GFS has a decent track record within 7 days, and after this first storm we'll know more about next week.

 

There's a good chance at moisture on the back side of this thing heading through TN and giving us snow - we had two decent clippers with accumulating snow just last weekend only a day apart from each other. The pattern will probably repeat itself.

[valkhorn]

GFS also not cold enough for the current snow falling in WNC on the 18z and 0z. Missing the snow accumulations almost completely. 

 

The GFS missed the last two clippers we had in TN as far as accumulations went, but it did correctly show the right amount of QPF. Clippers can be tricky. On Saturday my house picked up 1.5" and a good bit of it melted by the end of the day. The next day on Sunday it was close to 1.5" again, and most of it melted by the afternoon. The GFS didn't pick up on it for initialization.

 

Also this was posted on FB.  Sounds like the town where I grew up is about to get slammed.

 

 

 

WxSouth

You've heard this already in many other forecasts, but this is an unbelievable storm. The new NAM model is coming out and now, and by this time tomorrow night the beginnings of probably the greatest snowstorm on record will be underway for northern New Jersey, New York City, and lower New England. By midnight tomorrow night the winds will crank from the northeast and blizzard conditions have already developed. The model is dropping extreme snow rates, and by extreme I mean 3 inches per hour right over New York City. Pure WhiteOut conditions are coming. Already by Saturday morning over 2 feet has fallen in the city and more to come. Just west of New York, in northern New Jersey, yes it shows THREE FEET of snow by Saturday morning. Incredible rates. One thing about the rate of snow--- that is what does utilities and trees in. There is simply no way that structures can shed so much snow in that short of time, so utter destruction will occur if the NAM is right. And the NAM has had the hot hand many times this Winter.

 

I have to check the NAM - but the NAM is not good to look at for that kind of snowfall within 24 hours or so. I'd go with a more short range model like the RAP. The NAM sometimes can overdo snowfall accumulation if it's really heavy. It's also fun to check the Blizzard thread in the New England forums right now. I have a friend of mine in Newmarket, NH who is going to get slammed from this. They're already prepared to lose power for a few days. The forecasts for that area are crazy.

[valkhorn]

Depressing the masses doesn't bother me...its the false hope that some provide that bothers me...when we have qualified meteorologists on here talking about long range patterns (6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts) that have broken down into crappy patterns all winter to provide false hope for the masses that bothers me...no offense.  You probably don't realize  how many people actually listen to what you say because you have a met tag whether they are online or offline users...I am a met but I don't want others to listen to me because they think I am a met and "know it all"...I am nobody...just a piece of dust blowing in the wind. 

 

That bothers me to some point. One thing that greatly bothers me in these threads (and it's a knife that cuts both ways) is when things get warmer, there are certain posters who will show up to make things sound much worse than they are, and then when things seem like they might get cold, we get posters that show up (and we know who they are) who will take every little nudge of a model run to forecast snow and cold for their area. If it's sunny and warm, they'd rather have it cold and snowy. If it's cold and snowy, then there's not enough cold, or there's not enough snow. If there's rain, then there's nothing to really talk about. If it's severe weather, well that's the one thing that is pretty much on the level due to a specific wake up call in April of 2011. We do a good job of severe weather events. (Meaning severe thunderstorms.)

Whatever happens, enjoy it. If you don't like your climate and not seeing much snow, well move to somewhere where you CAN enjoy it.

Some of you guys would crap all over being in New England right now if you didn't get quite 2 feet of snow from this weekend's storm.

And, if one frame of one model run shows what you like, don't go overboard. Be patient and wait for a trend.

[burgertime]

OK I am just shocked no one mentioned the Euro for WNC. It looked like it might be starting to pick up something good for the 18th. At the risk of getting a Simpsons' reference thrown at me from Bob    it probably puts down a few inches in WNC. Now this is reliant on a phase @240 on the Euro...but given what the GFS has been showing for the same time frame it's a good sign. 

[NCSNOW]

I'm sure the mA and NE thread picked up on it. Could be another East coast thumper. V-day is a goood track for us next week, but the confluence is all screwed up to our north. In NC we just need a little help. Those pesky lows traversing the upper midwest GL region are the problem with getting a Hp in position.

 

Day 10 Euro

[rduwx]

OK I am just shocked no one mentioned the Euro for WNC. It looked like it might be starting to pick up something good for the 18th. At the risk of getting a Simpsons' reference thrown at me from Bob    it probably puts down a few inches in WNC. Now this is reliant on a phase @240 on the Euro...but given what the GFS has been showing for the same time frame it's a good sign. 

I saw it burger and it wouldn't take much to get a lot more in the ball game. I think others are a little gun shy to mention long range possibilities since that seems to be an issue around here lately.

[burgertime]

I saw it burger and it wouldn't take much to get a lot more in the ball game. I think others are a little gun shy to mention long range possibilities since that seems to be an issue around here lately.

 

Well that and just two weeks ago the Euro showed the SE getting a foot of snow @240 and we see how that went. 

[Brick Tamland]

I saw it burger and it wouldn't take much to get a lot more in the ball game. I think others are a little gun shy to mention long range possibilities since that seems to be an issue around here lately.

 

Not just an issue, it's been a disaster.

[NavarreDon]

Why is it taboo to talk about the long range portion of  computer models if they are not takin at verbatim? (almost all of the seasoned posters know to take them with a grain of salt) This is a forum to discuss weather isn't it? I don't understand this.

[Brick Tamland]

WxSouth

about an hour ago

 

Big discussion at www.wxsouth.com on this pattern and what the new upcoming pattern will produce. The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to go strongly negative again soon, and now the GFS has strong ridging in southern Greenland , a first this Winter if it happens. Combining this fact with other things like the western Ridge, below normal heights coming to almost all the lower 48 states and the big AO study I did a while back, I'm still sure that some areas of the mid South from northern MS to NC and VA will end up with above normal snowfall on the season. The ensembles have a lot of precip plus cold air in the days 7 through 15 period coming up, and with the overall 5H look over North America, this is about as good as it gets for Winter Storms to affect the MidSouth to MidAtlantic region. 

 

 

That's bold considering some of those areas Robert mentioned have received basically nothing so far this year.

 

Greensboro needs 6" to get to average (~3.25" so far).  Raleigh needs 7.5" (nothing so far except that IP/ZR storm).  Charlotte needs 4-5" (ditto).

 

Of course, all of that could fall in one storm, so you can never discount it.  That's the thing about the South.  You can have a God awful winter, luck out with one good setup, and surpass your seasonal snowfall average just like that.  The winter of 1999-2000 was like that, IIRC.  We pretty much had nothing except the epic wintry period from January 18th-30th, including the Carolina Crusher.  Then it warmed up into the 70s in early February and never looked back on the way to a torching.

 

 

Yes, it only takes one storm. But we have heard this all winter, and I just don't see it happening for the Raleigh area, especially since most of our good snow storms since 2000 have happened in December and January.

 

[PDUBRDU]

Yes, it only takes one storm. But we have heard this all winter, and I just don't see it happening for the Raleigh area, especially since most of our good snow storms since 2000 have happened in December and January.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/gsp/localdat/cases/26-27Feb2004Snow/Feb_26_27.htm

[Brick Tamland]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/gsp/localdat/cases/26-27Feb2004Snow/Feb_26_27.htm

 

Is that the Raleigh area, which I said I was talking about in my previous post?

[GreensboroWx]

Why is it taboo to talk about the long range portion of  computer models if they are not takin at verbatim? (almost all of the seasoned posters know to take them with a grain of salt) This is a forum to discuss weather isn't it? I don't understand this.

 

 

I agree....all I try to do is point out what the long range models are showing/not showing. If its showing warm, I will discuss that too. I think the issue has been the models have been a bit quick to bring in cold air masses all winter, only to push them off for a week or two, so were stuck talking about it for a long time. Eventually, some become frustrated or simply give up.

 

LR is not an exact science by any means and probably won't be for the foreseeable future. It's still fun to watch...sort of like peering into a crystal ball.  

[tnweathernut]

I agree....all I try to do is point out what the long range models are showing/not showing. If its showing warm, I will discuss that too. I think the issue has been the models have been a bit quick to bring in cold air masses all winter, only to push them off for a week or two, so were stuck talking about it for a long time. Eventually, some become frustrated or simply give up.

 

LR is not an exact science by any means and probably won't be for the foreseeable future. It's still fun to watch...sort of like peering into a crystal ball.  

 

I still think the LR looks good (and some of what looks good for certain areas is no longer in the fantasy range with the potential showing for next week.

 

The LR is something that should improve over time as we gain better understandings of the sciences involved and models improve, (not to mention more people doing fantastic statistical analysis like Larry..............but b/c of the nature of weather will always be something that causes surprises and the unexpected to occur. 

 

I couldn't agree more wrt the reason most people come to this board.  I, like many, come to this board to discuss possibilities and what the future might hold. 

 

As for the bolded, this board would be a lot more tolerable at times if those who have "given up" would just stay away until next year.  This is not to say I don't mind disagreements and non-cold analysis - but the negativity and delivery methods of some in here leave a lot to be desired.

[Met1985]

Why is it taboo to talk about the long range portion of  computer models if they are not takin at verbatim? (almost all of the seasoned posters know to take them with a grain of salt) This is a forum to discuss weather isn't it? I don't understand this.

Well said Don. This is a weather forum. It is just possibilities out there showing on the models. Not like a thread has been started yet.

[DixieBlizzard]

I agree....all I try to do is point out what the long range models are showing/not showing. If its showing warm, I will discuss that too. I think the issue has been the models have been a bit quick to bring in cold air masses all winter, only to push them off for a week or two, so were stuck talking about it for a long time. Eventually, some become frustrated or simply give up.

 

LR is not an exact science by any means and probably won't be for the foreseeable future. It's still fun to watch...sort of like peering into a crystal ball.  

 

...and it's the reason why I come to February Pattern thread to read! Maybe others can find the "current obs" thread more to their liking?

[msuwx]

Is that the Raleigh area, which I said I was talking about in my previous post?

Here's the state map for that event...

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040227.gif

[Met1985]

I still think the LR looks good (and some of what looks good for certain areas is no longer in the fantasy range with the potential showing for next week.

 

The LR is something that should improve over time as we gain better understandings of the sciences involved and models improve, (not to mention more people doing fantastic statistical analysis like Larry..............but b/c of the nature of weather will always be something that causes surprises and the unexpected to occur. 

 

I couldn't agree more wrt the reason most people come to this board.  I, like many, come to this board to discuss possibilities and what the future might hold. 

 

As for the bolded, this board would be a lot more tolerable at times if those who have "given up" would just stay away until next year.  This is not to say I don't mind disagreements and non-cold analysis - but the negativity and delivery methods of some in here leave a lot to be desired.

I have to agree the recent time frame say maybe the next 2-3 weeks do look promising to at least track something down the road.