burrel2 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z is awesome from 180hrs onwards. I know people comment on the gfs continually delaying arctic outbreaks that it shows in the long range, but that really hasn’t been the case with the cold pattern it’s predicting now. 3 or 4 days ago this pattern was showing up in the 240 to 264 hour time frame... now it’s showing up in the 180 to 192 hours time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes, the problem is the PNA is not tall enough and with split flow, you are generally not going to have any wintry weather if you have no true blocking which we have not had all winter.this is what I opined the other day when I talked about the Atlantic being worse than the Pacific. Do you agree with that now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z is awesome from 180hrs onwards. I know people comment on the gfs continually delaying arctic outbreaks that it shows in the long range, but that really hasn’t been the case with the cold pattern it’s predicting now. 3 or 4 days ago this pattern was showing up in the 240 to 264 hour time frame... now it’s showing up in the 180 to 192 hours time frame. If the models consistently show the cold getting here before truncation that would make more people believe it could be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z is awesome from 180hrs onwards. I know people comment on the gfs continually delaying arctic outbreaks that it shows in the long range, but that really hasn’t been the case with the cold pattern it’s predicting now. 3 or 4 days ago this pattern was showing up in the 240 to 264 hour time frame... now it’s showing up in the 180 to 192 hours time frame.the gefs have been consistent on showing this for a week now. Now lets see how it all plays out and will it produce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If the models consistently show the cold getting here before truncation that would make more people believe it could be coming. Bingo, my thoughts exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I couldn't say that one is worse than the other actually...lol...they both have been absolutely awful at the most inconvenient times...when the PNA has been positive the NAO/AO was either positive or east-based negative...LOL this is what I opined the other day when I talked about the Atlantic being worse than the Pacific. Do you agree with that now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this is what I opined the other day when I talked about the Atlantic being worse than the Pacific. Do you agree with that now? The Pacific is the key IMO as the downstream effects are profound. A west cost trough doesn't bode we'll for the SE ever -NAO or not. I think the PAC and Atlantic have been terrible but the PAC has been the culprit IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro weeklies: MUCH colder than prior run..more details later when I have time! I'll skip week #1 since that's already covered by medium range models. Weeks 2-4 (2/18-3/10): - moderate -AO but strong west based -NAO - SE US temp/'s below normal all three weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I couldn't say that one is worse than the other actually...lol...they both have been absolutely awful at the most inconvenient times...when the PNA has been positive the NAO/AO was either positive or east-based negative...LOLwe had a two week period back in late dec with an nao that retrograded. Other than that the west based nao has been the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Consistently showing up on the ensembles only to disappear. Losing the weak nino was a killer, the northern stream has been a killer all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'll skip week #1 since that's already covered by medium range models. Weeks 2-4 (2/18-3/10): - moderate -AO but strong west based -NAO - SE temp/'s belwo normal all three weeks I love the euro weeklies but I just heard a few folks talking bad about them today when they showed normal to slightly above normal temps. I see those same folks jumping on the euro weekly train in 5...4...3..2...1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Couldn't agree more...Had we had a pattern that reflected typical slight positive enso conditions, things would have been much better for sure. Happy 900th post btw we had a two week period back in late dec with an nao that retrograded. Other than that the west based nao has been the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Consistently showing up on the ensembles only to disappear. Losing the weak nino was a killer, the northern stream has been a killer all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm sorry, was someone looking for evidence of that the upcoming pattern is going to SUCK for the SE? Need I say more? HOWEVER, THIS CONFLICTS WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM AN UPSTREAM RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH WOULD PULL THE TROUGH FURTHER TO THE WEST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST MJO PHASE. ...WELL AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ...AROUND AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. the ensemble guidance shows more of a phase 3 coast to coast trough. How long is the lag time of the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 To affect the pattern? Depends...sometimes 7-14 days and sometimes more depending on how rapidly the phase change occurs among other things... the ensemble guidance shows more of a phase 3 coast to coast trough. How long is the lag time of the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Your evidence is seen in the post above...a forecasted TROUGH over the CENTRAL US over the next 8-14 days coincident with the dying MJO Phase and a crappy -PNA in the Pacific...you have any evidence to the contrary to suggest that we shouldn't be concerned other than a -AO that hasn't done anything for us all winter and an east based -NAO that doesn't do anything to help the SE? If split flow is your argument, good luck with that :-) Honestly, if that's all you got, then I'm not going to "bet the streak" as you say. The majority of the evidence points the other direction like ALL of the long range models, -EPO, -AO, Euro weeklies, etc. Who knows, you could be correct in the long run, but being such a cliff diver only depresses the masses and tends to bring the board down. JMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 To affect the pattern? Depends...sometimes 7-14 days and sometimes more depending on how rapidly the phase change occurs among other things...does it depend on how strong of a wave it is? Does the recent soi dive have anything to do with the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Depressing the masses doesn't bother me...its the false hope that some provide that bothers me...when we have qualified meteorologists on here talking about long range patterns (6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts) that have broken down into crappy patterns all winter to provide false hope for the masses that bothers me...no offense. You probably don't realize how many people actually listen to what you say because you have a met tag whether they are online or offline users...I am a met but I don't want others to listen to me because they think I am a met and "know it all"...I am nobody...just a piece of dust blowing in the wind. Honestly, if that's all you got, then I'm not going to "bet the streak" as you say. The majority of the evidence points the other direction like ALL of the long range models, -EPO, -AO, Euro weeklies, etc. Who knows, you could be correct in the long run, but being such a cliff diver only depresses the masses and tends to bring the board down. JMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yes it does depend on how strong of a wave it is...that's the only reason the mjo forecasts before were wrong because they were underforecasting the strength of an MJO wave that was already strong and making fast progress through 6 into phase 7...you'll get better at this as you look at this stuff longer...it takes years Not sure about SOI impacts on MJO to be honest...look it up on google scholar and let me know what you find out...I am interested... does it depend on how strong of a wave it is? Does the recent soi dive have anything to do with the mjo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Depressing the masses doesn't bother me...its the false hope that some provide that bothers me...when we have qualified meteorologists on here talking about long range patterns (6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts) that have broken down into crappy patterns all winter to provide false hope for the masses that bothers me...no offense. You probably don't realize how many people actually listen to what you say because you have a met tag whether they are online or offline users...I am a met but I don't want others to listen to me because they think I am a met and "know it all"...I am nobody...just a piece of dust blowing in the wind. I think it can go both ways! Believe me I have A LOT to learn when it comes to long range forecasting. I've said TIME and TIME again, the models have shown this or that, but to take it with a grain of salt, etc. My word is not gospel nor any other mets. I think a majority of the people on here can figure out what I'm saying is not written in stone ..we're never right anyway! The LR pattern has disappointed all winter, yes! Lets hope it changes...I think it will, you don't....the battle continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Haha...that means you don't know me because I do not work for a tv station... The elementary manner in which you assert synoptic reasoning, either by directly quoting what the professionals write or basing something on pretty basic weather terms, leads me to believe you are not. If you are, I aplogize, but I have a pretty good idea which tv station you work or here in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LOL...no doubt...I don't really care either way because I only get snow once in 100 years around here anyway...LOL...no worries...no harm and no foul :-) I think it can go both ways! Believe me I have A LOT to learn when it comes to long range forecasting. I've said TIME and TIME again, the models have shown this or that, but to take it with a grain of salt, etc. My word is not gospel nor any other mets. I think a majority of the people on here can figure out what I'm saying is not written in stone ..we're never right anyway! The LR pattern has disappointed all winter, yes! Lets hope it changes...I think it will, you don't....the battle continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LOL...no doubt...I don't really care either way because I only get snow once in 100 years around here anyway...LOL...no worries...no harm and no foul :-) Just here to stir it up, eh? Anyway, I am starting to think that Larry is going to be right about a rocking end to February. A lot of signs pointing that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just here to stir it up, eh? Anyway, I am starting to think that Larry is going to be right about a rocking end to February. A lot of signs pointing that way. Never doubt the wisdom of the Larry Greg, .9 and 40's says to me it's winter here, despite the naying naysayers. Perhaps the definition of winter has become a bit skewed, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS 1 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z FEB07 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 18Z 07-FEB FRI 00Z 08-FEB 11.0 5.4 1014 90 87 0.03 562 550 FRI 06Z 08-FEB 8.3 5.9 1013 93 87 0.00 560 549 FRI 12Z 08-FEB 7.7 3.7 1016 94 99 0.15 559 546 FRI 18Z 08-FEB 4.7 1.8 1023 81 2 0.03 560 542 SAT 00Z 09-FEB 3.5 1.0 1025 80 6 0.00 562 542 SAT 06Z 09-FEB 0.5 3.3 1026 91 11 0.00 566 545 SAT 12Z 09-FEB -1.2 5.5 1028 95 8 0.00 567 546 SAT 18Z 09-FEB 7.9 6.8 1026 53 9 0.00 569 548 SUN 00Z 10-FEB 6.2 7.0 1023 66 5 0.00 569 550 SUN 06Z 10-FEB 5.8 6.7 1023 75 53 0.00 570 551 SUN 12Z 10-FEB 6.2 6.0 1021 78 45 0.02 569 552 SUN 18Z 10-FEB 12.7 7.5 1018 69 95 0.02 570 555 MON 00Z 11-FEB 11.0 10.2 1014 94 90 0.68 569 558 MON 06Z 11-FEB 13.1 8.3 1012 96 11 0.08 566 556 MON 12Z 11-FEB 7.0 4.7 1017 91 2 0.01 564 550 MON 18Z 11-FEB 11.1 3.4 1020 55 9 0.00 564 548 TUE 00Z 12-FEB 8.2 3.7 1020 69 15 0.00 562 546 TUE 06Z 12-FEB 3.8 3.6 1021 83 35 0.00 562 546 TUE 12Z 12-FEB 1.8 3.5 1021 89 71 0.00 561 544 TUE 18Z 12-FEB 9.3 4.3 1018 58 42 0.00 559 545 WED 00Z 13-FEB 6.5 4.6 1013 73 59 0.00 558 547 WED 06Z 13-FEB 5.2 4.2 1008 79 97 0.00 554 547 WED 12Z 13-FEB 1.8 1.7 1002 93 96 0.42 545 543 WED 18Z 13-FEB 2.2 -3.8 1008 91 92 0.20 538 531 THU 00Z 14-FEB -0.3 -4.2 1013 95 10 0.01 545 534 THU 06Z 14-FEB -1.4 -4.4 1015 95 28 0.00 547 536 Very annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Never doubt the wisdom of the Larry Greg, .9 and 40's says to me it's winter here, despite the naying naysayers. Perhaps the definition of winter has become a bit skewed, lol. T agree. to my untrained eye it seems climo is the better predictor of weather, at least this year, than the models. Larry's climo nailed the ice we had in late Jan way before it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The majority of the evidence points the other direction like ALL of the long range models, -EPO, -AO, Euro weeklies, etc. JMO! Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'll skip week #1 since that's already covered by medium range models. Weeks 2-4 (2/18-3/10): - moderate -AO but strong west based -NAO - SE US temp/'s below normal all three weeks Well this fits nicely with your analogues and what you've been speaking about all winter (about the end of Feb. and first half of March being the best time for SE winter weather and cold temps). For the record, I don't believe in your analogues....not because your research is not amazing....it's just that I think the climate might be different enough now to render a lot of analogues minimally useful at best. BUT, BUT, if your analysis proves correct, I will be on the GaWx train from now on. Edit: By the way, any indication of precipitation wrt normal on the Weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And by the way, nobody's skills as a met are diminished with LR or seasonal forecasts as long as they back it up with reason and evidence to support their case, IMO. If the last couple of years have taught us anything, it's how there is so much we (weenies, enthusiasts, and mets alike) don't yet know about LR forecasting and how all the variables that drive weather patterns affect the eventual outcomes that we either love or hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well this fits nicely with your analogues and what you've been speaking about all winter (about the end of Feb. and first half of March being the best time for SE winter weather and cold temps). For the record, I don't believe in your analogues....not because your research is not amazing....it's just that I think the climate might be different enough now to render a lot of analogues minimally useful at best. BUT, BUT, if your analysis proves correct, I will be on the GaWx train from now on. Edit: By the way, any indication of precipitation wrt normal on the Weeklies? Ahh...two of my weather hero's. The one who nailed the Xmas snow despite any analogs....because there were none for Ga, lol. And the one who nailed the Sav. snow, because there were some analogs, and clear, to him, climo evidence pointing that way. CR, you'll see some flakes...you know it's coming, lol. Ga. knows Larry knows Climo knows T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pattern remains...how many back to back winter weather events have occurred near a Friday for the mountains now? This feels like the 6th+ one now...maybe somebody from Boone can chip in. 2-3+ inch snowfall and still coming down...should qualify for Friday if it holds past midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well this fits nicely with your analogues and what you've been speaking about all winter (about the end of Feb. and first half of March being the best time for SE winter weather and cold temps). For the record, I don't believe in your analogues....not because your research is not amazing....it's just that I think the climate might be different enough now to render a lot of analogues minimally useful at best. BUT, BUT, if your analysis proves correct, I will be on the GaWx train from now on. Edit: By the way, any indication of precipitation wrt normal on the Weeklies? Precip. from Euro weeklies: Week 2 (2/18-24): wet; weeks 3-4 (2/25-3/10): near normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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