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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


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18z is awesome from 180hrs onwards.  I know people comment on the gfs continually delaying arctic outbreaks that it shows in the long range, but that really hasn’t been the case with the cold pattern it’s predicting now.  3 or 4 days ago this pattern was showing up in the 240 to 264 hour time frame... now it’s showing up in the 180 to 192 hours time frame.  

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Yes, the problem is the PNA is not tall enough and with split flow, you are generally not going to have any wintry weather if you have no true blocking which we have not had all winter.

this is what I opined the other day when I talked about the Atlantic being worse than the Pacific. Do you agree with that now?
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18z is awesome from 180hrs onwards. I know people comment on the gfs continually delaying arctic outbreaks that it shows in the long range, but that really hasn’t been the case with the cold pattern it’s predicting now. 3 or 4 days ago this pattern was showing up in the 240 to 264 hour time frame... now it’s showing up in the 180 to 192 hours time frame.

If the models consistently show the cold getting here before truncation that would make more people believe it could be coming.

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18z is awesome from 180hrs onwards. I know people comment on the gfs continually delaying arctic outbreaks that it shows in the long range, but that really hasn’t been the case with the cold pattern it’s predicting now. 3 or 4 days ago this pattern was showing up in the 240 to 264 hour time frame... now it’s showing up in the 180 to 192 hours time frame.

the gefs have been consistent on showing this for a week now. Now lets see how it all plays out and will it produce?
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I couldn't say that one is worse than the other actually...lol...they both have been absolutely awful at the most inconvenient times...when the PNA has been positive the NAO/AO was either positive or east-based negative...LOL

this is what I opined the other day when I talked about the Atlantic being worse than the Pacific. Do you agree with that now?

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this is what I opined the other day when I talked about the Atlantic being worse than the Pacific. Do you agree with that now?

The Pacific is the key IMO as the downstream effects are profound. A west cost trough doesn't bode we'll for the SE ever -NAO or not. I think the PAC and Atlantic have been terrible but the PAC has been the culprit IMO.

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Euro weeklies: MUCH colder than prior run..more details later when I have time!

 

I'll skip week #1 since that's already covered by medium range models.

 

Weeks 2-4 (2/18-3/10):

- moderate -AO but strong west based -NAO

- SE US temp/'s below normal all three weeks

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I couldn't say that one is worse than the other actually...lol...they both have been absolutely awful at the most inconvenient times...when the PNA has been positive the NAO/AO was either positive or east-based negative...LOL

we had a two week period back in late dec with an nao that retrograded. Other than that the west based nao has been the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Consistently showing up on the ensembles only to disappear. Losing the weak nino was a killer, the northern stream has been a killer all winter.
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I'll skip week #1 since that's already covered by medium range models.

 

Weeks 2-4 (2/18-3/10):

- moderate -AO but strong west based -NAO

- SE temp/'s belwo normal all three weeks

I love the euro weeklies but I just heard a few folks talking bad about them today when they showed normal to slightly above normal temps. I see those same folks jumping on the euro weekly train in 5...4...3..2...1...

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Couldn't agree more...Had we had a pattern that reflected typical slight positive enso conditions, things would have been much better for sure.  Happy 900th post btw :)

we had a two week period back in late dec with an nao that retrograded. Other than that the west based nao has been the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Consistently showing up on the ensembles only to disappear. Losing the weak nino was a killer, the northern stream has been a killer all winter.

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I'm sorry, was someone looking for evidence of that the upcoming pattern is going to SUCK for the SE? Need I say more?

HOWEVER, THIS CONFLICTS WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM AN  
UPSTREAM RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH WOULD PULL THE TROUGH FURTHER  
TO THE WEST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST MJO PHASE.
...WELL AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...AROUND AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
the ensemble guidance shows more of a phase 3 coast to coast trough. How long is the lag time of the mjo?
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Your evidence is seen in the post above...a forecasted TROUGH over the CENTRAL US over the next 8-14 days coincident with the dying MJO Phase and a crappy -PNA in the Pacific...you have any evidence to the contrary to suggest that we shouldn't be concerned other than a -AO that hasn't done anything for us all winter and an east based -NAO that doesn't do anything to help the SE?  If split flow is your argument, good luck with that :-)

 

Honestly, if that's all you got, then I'm not going to "bet the streak" as you say.  :o The majority of the evidence points the other direction like  ALL of the long range models, -EPO, -AO, Euro weeklies, etc. 

 

Who knows, you could be correct in the long run, but being such a cliff diver only depresses the masses and tends to bring the board down.

 

JMO!

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Depressing the masses doesn't bother me...its the false hope that some provide that bothers me...when we have qualified meteorologists on here talking about long range patterns (6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts) that have broken down into crappy patterns all winter to provide false hope for the masses that bothers me...no offense.  You probably don't realize  how many people actually listen to what you say because you have a met tag whether they are online or offline users...I am a met but I don't want others to listen to me because they think I am a met and "know it all"...I am nobody...just a piece of dust blowing in the wind. 

Honestly, if that's all you got, then I'm not going to "bet the streak" as you say.  :o The majority of the evidence points the other direction like  ALL of the long range models, -EPO, -AO, Euro weeklies, etc. 

 

Who knows, you could be correct in the long run, but being such a cliff diver only depresses the masses and tends to bring the board down.

 

JMO!

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yes it does depend on how strong of a wave it is...that's the only reason the mjo forecasts before were wrong because they were underforecasting the strength of an MJO wave that was already strong and making fast progress through 6 into phase 7...you'll get better at this as you look at this stuff longer...it takes years :)  Not sure about SOI impacts on MJO to be honest...look it up on google scholar and let me know what you find out...I am interested...

 

does it depend on how strong of a wave it is? Does the recent soi dive have anything to do with the mjo?

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Depressing the masses doesn't bother me...its the false hope that some provide that bothers me...when we have qualified meteorologists on here talking about long range patterns (6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts) that have broken down into crappy patterns all winter to provide false hope for the masses that bothers me...no offense.  You probably don't realize  how many people actually listen to what you say because you have a met tag whether they are online or offline users...I am a met but I don't want others to listen to me because they think I am a met and "know it all"...I am nobody...just a piece of dust blowing in the wind. 

 

I think it can go both ways!  Believe me I have A LOT to learn when it comes to long range forecasting. I've said TIME and TIME again, the models have shown this or that, but to take it with a grain of salt, etc. My word is not gospel nor any other mets. I think a majority of the people on here can figure out what I'm saying is not written in stone ..we're never right anyway!

 

The LR pattern has disappointed all winter, yes! Lets hope it changes...I think it will, you don't....the battle continues.... :ee:

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Haha...that means you don't know me because I do not work for a tv station...

The elementary manner in which you assert synoptic reasoning, either by directly quoting what the professionals write or basing something on pretty basic weather terms, leads me to believe you are not. If you are, I aplogize, but I have a pretty good idea which tv station you work or here in the East.

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LOL...no doubt...I don't really care either way because I only get snow once in 100 years around here anyway...LOL...no worries...no harm and no foul :-)

 

I think it can go both ways!  Believe me I have A LOT to learn when it comes to long range forecasting. I've said TIME and TIME again, the models have shown this or that, but to take it with a grain of salt, etc. My word is not gospel nor any other mets. I think a majority of the people on here can figure out what I'm saying is not written in stone ..we're never right anyway!

 

The LR pattern has disappointed all winter, yes! Lets hope it changes...I think it will, you don't....the battle continues.... :ee:

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LOL...no doubt...I don't really care either way because I only get snow once in 100 years around here anyway...LOL...no worries...no harm and no foul :-)

 

Just here to stir it up, eh?

 

Anyway, I am starting to think that Larry is going to be right about a rocking end to February. A lot of signs pointing that way.

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Just here to stir it up, eh?

 

Anyway, I am starting to think that Larry is going to be right about a rocking end to February. A lot of signs pointing that way.

Never doubt the wisdom of the Larry :)  Greg, .9 and 40's says to me it's winter here, despite the naying naysayers.  Perhaps the definition of winter has become a bit skewed, lol.  T

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GFS 1 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591                                            18Z FEB07   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK THU 18Z 07-FEB                                                                  FRI 00Z 08-FEB  11.0     5.4    1014      90      87    0.03     562     550    FRI 06Z 08-FEB   8.3     5.9    1013      93      87    0.00     560     549    FRI 12Z 08-FEB   7.7     3.7    1016      94      99    0.15     559     546    FRI 18Z 08-FEB   4.7     1.8    1023      81       2    0.03     560     542    SAT 00Z 09-FEB   3.5     1.0    1025      80       6    0.00     562     542    SAT 06Z 09-FEB   0.5     3.3    1026      91      11    0.00     566     545    SAT 12Z 09-FEB  -1.2     5.5    1028      95       8    0.00     567     546    SAT 18Z 09-FEB   7.9     6.8    1026      53       9    0.00     569     548    SUN 00Z 10-FEB   6.2     7.0    1023      66       5    0.00     569     550    SUN 06Z 10-FEB   5.8     6.7    1023      75      53    0.00     570     551    SUN 12Z 10-FEB   6.2     6.0    1021      78      45    0.02     569     552    SUN 18Z 10-FEB  12.7     7.5    1018      69      95    0.02     570     555    MON 00Z 11-FEB  11.0    10.2    1014      94      90    0.68     569     558    MON 06Z 11-FEB  13.1     8.3    1012      96      11    0.08     566     556    MON 12Z 11-FEB   7.0     4.7    1017      91       2    0.01     564     550    MON 18Z 11-FEB  11.1     3.4    1020      55       9    0.00     564     548    TUE 00Z 12-FEB   8.2     3.7    1020      69      15    0.00     562     546    TUE 06Z 12-FEB   3.8     3.6    1021      83      35    0.00     562     546    TUE 12Z 12-FEB   1.8     3.5    1021      89      71    0.00     561     544    TUE 18Z 12-FEB   9.3     4.3    1018      58      42    0.00     559     545    WED 00Z 13-FEB   6.5     4.6    1013      73      59    0.00     558     547    WED 06Z 13-FEB   5.2     4.2    1008      79      97    0.00     554     547    WED 12Z 13-FEB   1.8     1.7    1002      93      96    0.42     545     543    WED 18Z 13-FEB   2.2    -3.8    1008      91      92    0.20     538     531    THU 00Z 14-FEB  -0.3    -4.2    1013      95      10    0.01     545     534    THU 06Z 14-FEB  -1.4    -4.4    1015      95      28    0.00     547     536  

 

 

Very annoying

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Never doubt the wisdom of the Larry :)  Greg, .9 and 40's says to me it's winter here, despite the naying naysayers.  Perhaps the definition of winter has become a bit skewed, lol.  T

agree. to my untrained eye it seems climo is the better predictor of weather, at least this year, than the models.  Larry's climo nailed the ice we had in late Jan way before it happened. 

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I'll skip week #1 since that's already covered by medium range models.

 

Weeks 2-4 (2/18-3/10):

- moderate -AO but strong west based -NAO

- SE US temp/'s below normal all three weeks

 

Well this fits nicely with your analogues and what you've been speaking about all winter (about the end of Feb. and first half of March being the best time for SE winter weather and cold temps).  For the record, I don't believe in your analogues....not because your research is not amazing....it's just that I think the climate might be different enough now to render a lot of analogues minimally useful at best.  BUT, BUT, if your analysis proves correct, I will be on the GaWx train from now on.

 

Edit:  By the way, any indication of precipitation wrt normal on the Weeklies?

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And by the way, nobody's skills as a met are diminished with LR or seasonal forecasts as long as they back it up with reason and evidence to support their case, IMO.  If the last couple of years have taught us anything, it's how there is so much we (weenies, enthusiasts, and mets alike) don't yet know about LR forecasting and how all the variables that drive weather patterns affect the eventual outcomes that we either love or hate.

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Well this fits nicely with your analogues and what you've been speaking about all winter (about the end of Feb. and first half of March being the best time for SE winter weather and cold temps).  For the record, I don't believe in your analogues....not because your research is not amazing....it's just that I think the climate might be different enough now to render a lot of analogues minimally useful at best.  BUT, BUT, if your analysis proves correct, I will be on the GaWx train from now on.

 

Edit:  By the way, any indication of precipitation wrt normal on the Weeklies?

Ahh...two of my weather hero's.  The one who nailed the Xmas snow despite any analogs....because there were none for Ga, lol.  And the one who nailed the Sav. snow, because there were some analogs, and clear, to him, climo evidence pointing that way.  CR, you'll see some flakes...you know it's coming, lol. Ga. knows Larry knows Climo knows  :)  T

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Well this fits nicely with your analogues and what you've been speaking about all winter (about the end of Feb. and first half of March being the best time for SE winter weather and cold temps).  For the record, I don't believe in your analogues....not because your research is not amazing....it's just that I think the climate might be different enough now to render a lot of analogues minimally useful at best.  BUT, BUT, if your analysis proves correct, I will be on the GaWx train from now on.

 

Edit:  By the way, any indication of precipitation wrt normal on the Weeklies?

 

Precip. from Euro weeklies: Week 2 (2/18-24): wet; weeks 3-4 (2/25-3/10): near normal

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