SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not saying I necessarily believe it (especially since it has been jumping around from run to run), but fwiw, the 12Z Euro has the coldest 6-10 day period yet in the SE US for any recent Euro run. Unfortunately, it looks sort of -PNAish to me on day 10..again fwiw. However, at least it is cool to see the modeled chill in the 6-10, accurate or not. Yeah, it looks pretty good. And at the end of the run it really pumps up a west coast ridge; very +PNA if you ask me (I could be wrong, but it's a big ridge). That with a -NAO through most of the later run. Is it a step toward the GFS? No idea. 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, it looks pretty good. And at the end of the run it really pumps up a west coast ridge; very +PNA if you ask me (I could be wrong, but it's a big ridge). That with a -NAO through most of the later run. Is it a step toward the GFS? No idea. 240 It looks chilly in the SE at 240, but that's not a +PNA. The -NAO is still not favorably configured either. That said, at least the map is not a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not saying I necessarily believe it (especially since it has been jumping around from run to run), but fwiw, the 12Z Euro has the coldest 6-10 day period yet in the SE US for any recent Euro run. Unfortunately, it looks sort of -PNAish to me on day 10..again fwiw. However, at least it is cool to see the modeled chill in the 6-10, accurate or not. All I know is today we are officially 1/4 the way through FEB, and the world famous euro weeklies that last week showed wall to wall Feb warmth for the SE are in trouble IMO still. So far at GSO we are -2 for the month of FEB. Like the Euro/Can ots, suppressed look off the SE coast for v-day. May not mean a thing but some cold rain who knows at this point. Best to hold off until the late weekend lakes cutter gets out of the way and see just how much energy does get left behind. It looked to me on Allan site day 10 has some more potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 All I know is today we are officially 1/4 the way through FEB, and the world famous euro weeklies that last week showed wall to wall Feb warmth for the SE are in trouble IMO still. So far at GSO we are -2 for the month of FEB. Like the Euro/Can ots, suppressed look off the SE coast for v-day. May not mean a thing but some cold rain who knows at this point. Best to hold off until the late weekend lakes cutter gets out of the way and see just how much energy does get left behind. It looked to me on Allan site day 10 has some more potential. If the V-Day system would somehow wrap up, we would potentially have something....but boundary layer issues would most likely be an issue, given a stale air mass and no HP to transport in fresh cold air. Problem is, it's not just going to magically bomb out. It's going to need to phase, which requires energy to phase with, which I don't see any of. So the bottom line is, unless we see some significant changes, it looks like a cold rain or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sorry it's not working out guys but there was a reason I wasn't being optimistic 7 days ago...MJO wave looks like it is falling apart and the models are playing catch up as usual...I think an early spring is looking more and more likely...will it be cold on some days? Sure but by and large winter looks to be basically over for the most part for the SE...BET THE STREAK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sorry it's not working out guys but there was a reason I wasn't being optimistic 7 days ago...MJO wave looks like it is falling apart and the models are playing catch up as usual...I think an early spring is looking more and more likely...will it be cold on some days? Sure but by and large winter looks to be basically over for the most part for the SE...BET THE STREAK! Nice to meet you Debbie... Have anymore downers for everyone? Nothing is pointing to a more and more likely early spring? If anything it's looking better for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 and the world famous euro weeklies that last week showed wall to wall Feb warmth for the SE are in trouble IMO still. What came out last Thursday was not wall to wall warmth....in fact it could be argued below for next week then near normal to a hair above for the balance of Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sorry it's not working out guys but there was a reason I wasn't being optimistic 7 days ago...MJO wave looks like it is falling apart and the models are playing catch up as usual...I think an early spring is looking more and more likely...will it be cold on some days? Sure but by and large winter looks to be basically over for the most part for the SE...BET THE STREAK! Hope you have good liability insurance! Causing cliff diving accidents can get expensive in a hurry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What came out last Thursday was not wall to wall warmth....in fact it could be argued below for next week then near normal to a hair above for the balance of Feb... The euro ensembles looked very bad last week for cold lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sorry it's not working out guys but there was a reason I wasn't being optimistic 7 days ago...MJO wave looks like it is falling apart and the models are playing catch up as usual...I think an early spring is looking more and more likely...will it be cold on some days? Sure but by and large winter looks to be basically over for the most part for the SE...BET THE STREAK! If it were all about the MJO, the forecasting would be easy. It's just one part of a BIG equation. Can you provide some evidence, other than your gut feeling that an early spring is more likely? Modeling data I've seen would suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Going to have to take it 1 day at a time. Both sides are likely right just at different time frames. Snow and Spring may follow suit in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sorry it's not working out guys but there was a reason I wasn't being optimistic 7 days ago...MJO wave looks like it is falling apart and the models are playing catch up as usual...I think an early spring is looking more and more likely...will it be cold on some days? Sure but by and large winter looks to be basically over for the most part for the SE...BET THE STREAK! I don't know. It seems like the wave dies for just a bit and picks back up and goes into phases 2 and 3 after mid month. I think there's good signs that we stay cool; maybe a bit below average but just not cold enough for winter weather. Mmmmm cold rain into March..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Allan posted this update on Feb 1st. National Extended Weather Discussion The models remain at odds with how the pattern is going to play out in the extended. The GFS/GGEM Ensembles are persistent in building a –EPO style ridge in the Gulf of Alaska into NW Canada and Alaska with a subsequent trough developing over south-central Canada and US Midwest/Lakes, which would lead to a colder pattern taking hold by 2/13 or so. However, the ECMWF Ensemble does not show this –EPO block developing to any significant degree, and keeps a mainly zonal, warm, pacific flow into the US which would be a mild pattern. To add to the confusion, the weekly guidance is about as different as you can be in the week ¾ range with the Euro indicating for all intents and purposes winter is over, while the CFS shows most of the nation colder than normal. The MJO is about to cross into phase 8 with the GFS Ensemble showing the phase stalling out in phases 8/1 which would give some support to a colder pattern. However, the ECMWF weeklies show the MJO wave progressing into phases 2, 3, and 4 through the month of February which would give credence to a warmer outlook. At this point, it is a tough call. The reality is that for areas outside the western US, it has been a very mild winter overall, although there has been some cold periods. Thus the warmer forecast especially since it is coming from the normal most reliable guidance in the ECMWF carries weight. At some point, probably over the weekend the guidance will come into some better agreement, but for now that is not the case! If the GFS Ensemble is correct look for a colder pattern in place by around or just prior to Valentine’s Day, with the potential for a significant winter storm. Stay tuned His update today. The guidance in the longer range has come into better agreement in recent cycles on an overall cold pattern that will start developing after Valentine’s Day and may continue through the rest of February. The EPO is forecast to go significantly negative along with the AO, while the NAO is weakly negative. However a –PNA means that the cold air will likely spread out across the country and not just be concentrated in one area. The SE ridge may rear its head at times but it is unclear if it will be enough to warm the Southeast above normal and send the storm track into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic or weak enough for the cold air in the northern stream to suppress the storm track well to the south and bring wintry weather to the Southeast. It is becoming clearer though that the met Winter may try to close with a bang, and the blizzard coming up tomorrow may be the kick off to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Going to have to take it 1 day at a time. Both sides are likely right just at different time frames. Snow and Spring may follow suit in the next few weeks. :facepalm: :facepalm:It might be cold. It might be warm. It might snow. It might not. It is still winter. Spring is next. :facepalm: :facepalm: Concerning weather, today's 12Z Euro Ensemble mean is not disasterous, but unfortunately doesn't have a -PNA look in the LR and no really good -NAO....certainly not what you would call a SE winter storm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't know. It seems like the wave dies for just a bit and picks back up and goes into phases 2 and 3 after mid month. I think there's good signs that we stay cool; maybe a bit below average but just not cold enough for winter weather. Mmmmm cold rain into March..... If I recall correctly, most of these models were trying to kill the current pulse back at phase 5/6 or so but it kept chugging along. Don't know if that will continue to happen or not but I don't have tremendous confidence in their current prognosis either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There has been lots of back and forth going on today. What I've gathered is the Pacific is still screwing us over like it has the past two years. I mean this with complete sincerity, what is different that will bring a snowy pattern to the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It looks chilly in the SE at 240, but that's not a +PNA. The -NAO is still not favorably configured either. That said, at least the map is not a disaster. Bingo, I was 'arguing' about this a couple months ago. +PNA is not ridging off the west coast...it's ridging in western North America, preferably in Western Canada with a southern stream underneath....there's a big difference between the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bingo, I was 'arguing' about this a couple months ago. +PNA is not ridging off the west coast...it's ridging in western North America, preferably in Western Canada with a southern stream underneath....there's a big difference between the 2.that s been one of the biggest differences between the two ensemble camps over the last few days. It was just last week the euro ensembles ended winter for the conus while the gefs jumped on the -epo train. It recent days the euro ensembles have made a big move towards the gefs idea. We will see how it plays out next week. The one key feature showing up with some consistency over the last 24 hours is a west based nao. The gefs seems very bullish while the euro says okay, I might play. This feature has been sorely lacking most of the winter while the pna has stayed mostly neautral to positive, with -epo dumps of brief cold shots. To sum it all up, the Atlantic has been terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro weeklies: MUCH colder than prior run..more details later when I have time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There has been lots of back and forth going on today. What I've gathered is the Pacific is still screwing us over like it has the past two years. I mean this with complete sincerity, what is different that will bring a snowy pattern to the SE? I don't necessarily disagree with you but I'm confused on the other end. What about the Pacific is messing us up? We've had a +PNA lots this winter with troughs over the central to the east, -EPO. Now we may have an active subtropical jet to go along with the ridging (-PNA or not). What about the pacific is not conducive or hasn't been conducive for cold/stormy in the south specifically? A true +PNA? This has been mentioned several times through the winter but it's always been in a general sense and I'm confused. What exactly is wrong with the pacific? It seems like in the next few weeks it won't be bad. Bingo, I was 'arguing' about this a couple months ago. +PNA is not ridging off the west coast...it's ridging in western North America, preferably in Western Canada with a southern stream underneath....there's a big difference between the 2. Whether it's a + or -, does it matter if the ridge creates a trough east that puts the SE in negative heights? Just trying to learn as I go. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Going to have to take it 1 day at a time. Both sides are likely right just at different time frames. Snow and Spring may follow suit in the next few weeks. Hahaha you're like Santa trying to spread joy and happiness to all the weather weenies. Your friendly neighborhood Captain Obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bingo, I was 'arguing' about this a couple months ago. +PNA is not ridging off the west coast...it's ridging in western North America, preferably in Western Canada with a southern stream underneath....there's a big difference between the 2.have the cips updated today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The Euro EPS control run tracks SLP over panhandle and than SE off the GA coast, scrapes NC. Interesting to see the GFS as an Apps runner. Reminds me of the boxing day storm, at this range the GFS was an Apps runner and most other models were wide right. I know wishful thinking but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 have the cips updated today? Yeah, but I only post the sexy looking ones They are somewhat similar to yesterday with generally below normal temps for most the country, but with a key difference being that the trough axis is moved further west....so, we continue with the theme of it being difficult to have storms track to our south AND keep it cold. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 21 2013 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS ARE RELATIVELY POOR. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SEPARATE, SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS (PARTICULARLY BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS). THE AO INDEX IS PREDICTED BY MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVE DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD SUGGESTING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, THIS CONFLICTS WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM AN UPSTREAM RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH WOULD PULL THE TROUGH FURTHER TO THE WEST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST MJO PHASE. TODAY'S WEEK TWO FORECAST PACKAGE REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS UNDERNEATH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE WELL AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST RIDGING OVER ALASKA LEADS TO ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EAST AND GULF COASTS OF THE CONUS AROUND AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Whether it's a + or -, does it matter if the ridge creates a trough east that puts the SE in negative heights? Just trying to learn as I go. Thanks. A lot of different setups, but a ridge off the west coast will favor a trough axis toward the Rockies, and storms will won't to cut to our north unless there is a big -NAO block in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm sorry, was someone looking for evidence of that the upcoming pattern is going to SUCK for the SE? Need I say more? HOWEVER, THIS CONFLICTS WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM AN UPSTREAM RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH WOULD PULL THE TROUGH FURTHER TO THE WEST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST MJO PHASE. ...WELL AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ...AROUND AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. Yeah, but I only post the sexy looking ones They are somewhat similar to yesterday with generally below normal temps for most the country, but with a key difference being that the trough axis is moved further west....so, we continue with the theme of it being difficult to have storms track to our south AND keep it cold. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 21 2013 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS ARE RELATIVELY POOR. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SEPARATE, SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS (PARTICULARLY BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS). THE AO INDEX IS PREDICTED BY MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVE DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD SUGGESTING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, THIS CONFLICTS WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM AN UPSTREAM RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH WOULD PULL THE TROUGH FURTHER TO THE WEST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST MJO PHASE. TODAY'S WEEK TWO FORECAST PACKAGE REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS UNDERNEATH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE WELL AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST RIDGING OVER ALASKA LEADS TO ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EAST AND GULF COASTS OF THE CONUS AROUND AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Your evidence is seen in the post above...a forecasted TROUGH over the CENTRAL US over the next 8-14 days coincident with the dying MJO Phase and a crappy -PNA in the Pacific...you have any evidence to the contrary to suggest that we shouldn't be concerned other than a -AO that hasn't done anything for us all winter and an east based -NAO that doesn't do anything to help the SE? If split flow is your argument, good luck with that :-) If it were all about the MJO, the forecasting would be easy. It's just one part of a BIG equation. Can you provide some evidence, other than your gut feeling that an early spring is more likely? Modeling data I've seen would suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The Euro EPS control run tracks SLP over panhandle and than SE off the GA coast, scrapes NC. Interesting to see the GFS as an Apps runner. Reminds me of the boxing day storm, at this range the GFS was an Apps runner and most other models were wide right. I know wishful thinking but interesting. FWIW, it seems that it has been fairly relatively consistent with that track. I am clueless as to how reliable the EPS control run is, though. In any case, it's 37 degrees with rain IMBY right now. COLD RAIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes, the problem is the PNA is not tall enough and with split flow, you are generally not going to have any wintry weather if you have no true blocking which we have not had all winter. I don't necessarily disagree with you but I'm confused on the other end. What about the Pacific is messing us up? We've had a +PNA lots this winter with troughs over the central to the east, -EPO. Now we may have an active subtropical jet to go along with the ridging (-PNA or not). What about the pacific is not conducive or hasn't been conducive for cold/stormy in the south specifically? A true +PNA? This has been mentioned several times through the winter but it's always been in a general sense and I'm confused. What exactly is wrong with the pacific? It seems like in the next few weeks it won't be bad. Whether it's a + or -, does it matter if the ridge creates a trough east that puts the SE in negative heights? Just trying to learn as I go. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Do you ever post anything useful? Ever? No offense, just asking Nice to meet you Debbie...Have anymore downers for everyone? Nothing is pointing to a more and more likely early spring? If anything it's looking better for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.