calculus1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Even at only 24 hours out, the 00Z NAM and GFS have very different solutions for the upcoming storm tomorrow. The NAM is much warmer and drier for western NC: The GFS is much cooler and wetter for western NC: It appears that NWS-GSP is going with a blend (as always), but they find the GFS solution (from 18Z interesting): AS OF 910 PM...CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO INVADE THE AREA FROM THE TENNVALLEY...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE THIN FOR ATLEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLYCOOL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT STABILIZE DURING THE PRE-DAWN AS THEDENSER CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES INRESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE SLIDING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...ANDPRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE GULF COAST. MINS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS AREFINALLY CONVERGING TOWARD A CONSENSUS REGARDING THE DEVELOPINGMILLER B SCENARIO FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUESTO BE WEAKER THAN THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE LOW...BUT THE00Z RUN IS ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 MB WEAKER...WHILE THE 18Z NAM WAS 6-8MB WEAKER. THEY ARE ALSO IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THETRACK...WITH THE 18Z NAM COMING IN SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OF THE 18Z RUN.THE 18Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS CONTINUE TOLOOK INTERESTING...STILL FEATURING A NEAR 0 C DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYERAT TNB THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT. (THE NAM SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERYWARM). HOWEVER...IT IS ODD THAT NOT A SINGLE MEMBER OF THE GFSENSEMBLE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN AT TNB. IFPRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...THE VERY DRY AIR MASS DICTATES THAT ABRIEF WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NRN MTNS AS WET BULBEFFECTS SET IN. HOWEVER...WHILE IN SITU CAD WILL NO DOUBT DEVELOPWITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE ABSENCE OF CLASSICAL CAD RELIABLYADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY WEAKE/SE UPSLOPE FLOW SUGGESTS COOLING MECHANISMS WILL BE INSUFFICIENTTO KEEP THE COLD AIR LOCKED IN OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...SO APREDOMINANTLY LIQUID EVENT APPEARS IN ORDER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THEGOING FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 As of hour 186, the 0Z GFS is already showing less of a +PNA vs. the prior three GFS runs. Let's see how the rest of the run goes. Edit: Sure enough, the 0Z GFS is a much warmer run than the three prior ones for the SE US for week #2. It looks much more like the 12Z Euro at day 10. Edit #2: For example, Atlanta never even gets below 0C at 850 204 hours+ on the 0Z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Agree GA, GFS looks a lot more like the 12z Euro with the ridge axis farther west, off the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Agree GA, GFS looks a lot more like the 12z Euro with the ridge axis farther west, off the west coast. This fits into my feeling that the 18Z GFS was likely rushing the cold dominated pattern into the SE too quickly...say by at least a week or so. Verbatim and fwiw, the 0Z GFS says no cold dominated pattern in the SE US at the very least til beyond 2/24 or so. Let's see what future runs do as well as the 0Z ensembles and Euro. Edit: 0Z GEFS is the warmest of at least the last couple of days of GEFS runs in the SE US for the 11-15 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 All hail the canadian. 0z Euro has suppressed look. Need a cold air mechanisim is biggest problem with this one still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why would anyone other than your area hail at that look? Because it would give a large chunk of TN and NC snow? Not sure why you're axing something that verbatim shows your back yard pretty much all snow. Looks like for NC folks it would be a rain to snow but hard to tell with these 12 hour panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 As of hour 186, the 0Z GFS is already showing less of a +PNA vs. the prior three GFS runs. Let's see how the rest of the run goes. Edit: Sure enough, the 0Z GFS is a much warmer run than the three prior ones for the SE US for week #2. It looks much more like the 12Z Euro at day 10. Edit #2: For example, Atlanta never even gets below 0C at 850 204 hours+ on the 0Z GFS! Shocking! And the CMC showing up here as hope dwindles...it has had some seriously poor performance over the last couple of weeks...but I still love you, burger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Shocking! And the CMC showing up here as hope dwindles...it has had some seriously poor performance over the last couple of weeks...but I still love you, burger! Hey I never said I believed it...just playing counter point that's all. When I believe something the model is showing you'll see me posting every other minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hey I never said I believed it...just playing counter point that's all. When I believe something the model is showing you'll see me posting every other minute. Of course...just yanking your chain. I certainly did not expect a rocking cold winter but I thought it would be better than this...I thought we might get a decent Arctic shot this year but alas it is not in the cards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Broadly, we have a buffet line of troughs coming into the West Coast next week which could spell (poorly progged) short-wave Southeast ridging. It will be tough to get snow in the Southeast as it looks like that V-Day system is not really going to come in. 00Z GFS ejects it into the Ohio Valley and then 06Z GFS has a dry cold front like the Euro. One can't just take the middle track. GEM sucks in the American South. If the Euro tries to bring it in, it'll probably be too warm like the old GFS shows. Based on pattern recognition I don't see next week panning out here. The following week the big trough digging into the West should make it into the Plains. Will it make it to the Southeast? GFS says so; Euro says no. GFS would repeat a couple chances for the Southeast. Euro looks like December: Plains snow but just rain here. I'm leaning toward the Plains based on a reversion to the December pattern. However if the (recent) trend is our friend, Southeast hope springs eternal. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Good analysis, although calling it the "V-Day" system implies it ever showed in any promise in the first place. Day 8-10 Euro offers no reason for optimism - no blocking, no PNA, no nothing. Nice to see the NE get hit -- at least somebody is cashing in. Broadly, we have a buffet line of troughs coming into the West Coast next week which could spell (poorly progged) short-wave Southeast ridging. It will be tough to get snow in the Southeast as it looks like that V-Day system is not really going to come in. 00Z GFS ejects it into the Ohio Valley and then 06Z GFS has a dry cold front like the Euro. One can't just take the middle track. GEM sucks in the American South. If the Euro tries to bring it in, it'll probably be too warm like the old GFS shows. Based on pattern recognition I don't see next week panning out here. The following week the big trough digging into the West should make it into the Plains. Will it make it to the Southeast? GFS says so; Euro says no. GFS would repeat a couple chances for the Southeast. Euro looks like December: Plains snow but just rain here. I'm leaning toward the Plains based on a reversion to the December pattern. However if the (recent) trend is our friend, Southeast hope springs eternal. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Broadly, we have a buffet line of troughs coming into the West Coast next week which could spell (poorly progged) short-wave Southeast ridging. It will be tough to get snow in the Southeast as it looks like that V-Day system is not really going to come in. 00Z GFS ejects it into the Ohio Valley and then 06Z GFS has a dry cold front like the Euro. One can't just take the middle track. GEM sucks in the American South. If the Euro tries to bring it in, it'll probably be too warm like the old GFS shows. Based on pattern recognition I don't see next week panning out here. The following week the big trough digging into the West should make it into the Plains. Will it make it to the Southeast? GFS says so; Euro says no. GFS would repeat a couple chances for the Southeast. Euro looks like December: Plains snow but just rain here. I'm leaning toward the Plains based on a reversion to the December pattern. However if the (recent) trend is our friend, Southeast hope springs eternal. Cheers! you know this is the same old same old, never anything promising, always a let down, I know I shouldn't get my hopes up for a VD storm but you can't help but a little bit and then its never a positive looking outlook its always a negative, a looking worse or not showing as much precip as before. I'm worn out from the whole winter being this way. You would think we would have one storm that would hold together with a cold source around but it never happens. I've about had it, really ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There was never any reason to be optimistic about the alleged VD system in the first place. That's the problem with false hopes, it creates letdown and disappointment that is unnecessary. you know this is the same old same old, never anything promising, always a let down, I know I shouldn't get my hopes up for a VD storm but you can't help but a little bit and then its never a positive looking outlook its always a negative, a looking worse or not showing as much precip as before. I'm worn out from the whole winter being this way. You would think we would have one storm that would hold together with a cold source around but it never happens. I've about had it, really ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Good analysis, although calling it the "V-Day" system implies it ever showed in any promise in the first place. Day 8-10 Euro offers no reason for optimism - no blocking, no PNA, no nothing. Nice to see the NE get hit -- at least somebody is cashing in. That's simply not true! If you look below, you will see +PNA (although, not particularly strong), -NAO, and, a trough in the east. It seems the GFS has been too strong with these features while the EURO not strong enough. Of course, we've seen this in the extended for some time. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That's simply not true! If you look below, you will see +PNA (although, not particularly strong), -NAO, and, a trough in the east. It seems the GFS has been too strong with these features while the EURO not strong enough. Of course, we've seen this in the extended for some time. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it to happen! It is not only that it is weak but that it is so far east..hence ridging in the SE and/or cold air slding north and east of us. Some keep looking at this pattern saying it is good for us and it is just not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It is not only that it is weak but that it is so far east..hence ridging in the SE and/or cold air slding north and east of us. Some keep looking at this pattern saying it is good for us and it is just not. Not sure you could say the GFS look is not good for the the SE....it looks about as good as it can get....of course I doubt it will play out like this. Yes, the EURO not so much. I'll still take my chances with an active STJ, which we'll have during the next few weeks. I'm pretty confident the SE will have a winter storm or two before the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, sorry, but that might barely meet the technical definition of a -NAO, but it isn't helping us at all. And that PNA is pathetic. Terrible pattern. (As a side note, these anomoly maps are really starting to annoy me. Very decieving and of limited usefulness. If you look at the Day 10 Euro in the Atlantic, there is weak ridging that is way east based -- the main high pressure is also well south. It's not accomplishing ANYTHING as far as acting as true blocking. These anomoly maps have shown below normal heights in the eastern US in the extended range time after time -- not accurate or reliable and not a good predictor of possible winter weather). That's simply not true! If you look below, you will see +PNA (although, not particularly strong), -NAO, and, a trough in the east. It seems the GFS has been too strong with these features while the EURO not strong enough. Of course, we've seen this in the extended for some time. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it to happen! It is not only that it is weak but that it is so far east..hence ridging in the SE and/or cold air slding north and east of us. Some keep looking at this pattern saying it is good for us and it is just not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The anomaly maps are fine, it's just that the Euro is winning out here (which it probably does more times than not) with the weaker and farther west ridge out in the Pacific. The GFS previously offered potential with a much stronger western Canadian coast ridge, but it was never a blockbuster look, never had a noteworthy -NAO (18z yesterday being the exception), and never had a look that would place consistent sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes (too much northern stream troughing in south/central Canada)...but the previous GFS look did open the door for a well timed event...but again, it has moved toward the Euro as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z GFS is close to a nice winter storm for TN/KY/WVA/NVA, doesn't help us NC/SC/GA folks but still nice to see it getting closer. It looks like the cutter on day 4 leaves some energy behind but it never fully cuts off and seperates, if it would I would think it would be a better result for us, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z GFS is close to a nice winter storm for TN/KY/WVA/NVA, doesn't help us NC/SC/GA folks but still nice to see it getting closer. It looks like the cutter on day 4 leaves some energy behind but it never fully cuts off and seperates, if it would I would think it would be a better result for us, but who knows. Yeah, the 12Z GFS came more in line with what the Canadian was showing at 00Z last night: keeping an LP along the gulf and riding up the coast. However, the GFS obviously cuts this LP much further west than did the Canadian, and thus we have the results that you mentioned. Even if there is no cold air to tap for those east of the Apps, it seems the GFS did change its tune a little. Model watching is quite fun! Who knows what might happen next week or the next?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 12Z has lots of potential in the long run. WARNING!!: If you can't handle it, don't look. This is a nice look at day 10: And, then the NE gets destroyed again in a few frames: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is still a jumbled mess of a system - but its getting better organized. Those trusting the euro for this... while it is statistically the better model, when you're dealing with the timing of a wave ejecting from the southwest in the 6+ day range, the euro often is worse than the gfs. When you are dealing with the timing of a northern stream and southern stream feature and how they interact, that little bit of a slowness that the euro has hangning up energy has big ramifications. It normally starts getting the ejection correct in the day 4-5 range. I certainly think the out to sea solution that the Euro had at 0z is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 HPC now going with 7+ inches of rain for South Carolina over the next 7 days. Interesting dry slot showing up in the Virginia foothills...will need to watch that in case it sneaks down further south-west into north-west NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not sure you could say the GFS look is not good for the the SE....it looks about as good as it can get....of course I doubt it will play out like this. Yes, the EURO not so much. I'll still take my chances with an active STJ, which we'll have during the next few weeks. I'm pretty confident the SE will have a winter storm or two before the end of the season. Yeah...I am not one to give much credence to the long range GFS....but yes...it is a bit better but probably wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 12Z has lots of potential in the long run. WARNING!!: If you can't handle it, don't look. This is a nice look at day 10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Because it would give a large chunk of TN and NC snow? Not sure why you're axing something that verbatim shows your back yard pretty much all snow. Looks like for NC folks it would be a rain to snow but hard to tell with these 12 hour panels. Sorry,shouldnt have said anything.But looking at this map and the latest GFS 12Z both have a system trailing this trough.The 0Z Euro loses it for some reason but looking at the 5- 700's it should still be there.I bet the 12Z picks it back up but its to warm to by the looks and the Euro would track it E and OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah...I am not one to give much credence to the long range GFS....but yes...it is a bit better but probably wrong! Lol, you sir, get the UnderStatement of the Year award, lol. I can't wait for the day you get hepped up on a storm....glory for us all And if you and Cheez get up for something on a model...it's Snowmegedon. I always enjoy your posts, and I'm glad you still will come in amonst the weenies, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not saying I necessarily believe it (especially since it has been jumping around from run to run), but fwiw, the 12Z Euro has the coldest 6-10 day period yet in the SE US for any recent Euro run. Unfortunately, it looks sort of -PNAish to me on day 10..again fwiw. However, at least it is cool to see the modeled chill in the 6-10, accurate or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not saying I necessarily believe it (especially since it has been jumping around from run to run), but fwiw, the 12Z Euro has the coldest 6-10 day period yet in the SE US for any recent Euro run. Unfortunately, it looks sort of -PNAish to me on day 10..again fwiw. However, at least it is cool to see the modeled chill in the 6-10, accurate or not. It also has the low pressure the other models are showing, though it looks suppressed and develops out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am pretty much about to call it and say I will remain UNDER last year's season total here. Time to bail and move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.