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February Pattern and Storm Discussion


POWERSTROKE

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One event for Boston and parts of NE does not make it a top dog here in the SE. I hope the control run is right though but honestly think the window of opportunity would be after that time frame. 

 

It was impressive that way it nailed this upcoming historic storm.  In my book the Euro is top dog and will always be top dog, it had a tough January but every champ goes through a slump.

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sure would like for this to happen on valentines day or the next day,  this would help mend our terrible past two and so far this winter. :cry:

It sure does look like someone is going to get a winter storm next week, whether it's us or if this is an Apps runner or cuts to the lakes...

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It sure does look like someone is going to get a winter storm next week, whether it's us or if this is an Apps runner or cuts to the lakes...

 

pack - are you basing this solely on the Euro?  Also, is your affinity for the Euro based on any data?  I'm seriously curious.

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For reference the Euro EPS control run looks very simliar to the GGEM, just colder and a smidge SE.

 

Basically looks like this 12z mem, 12 hours faster.  SLP roughly same spot and intensity, ILM sub 1000, difference is there is not a low pressure just north of Maine, EPS has it just north of the UP of MI, neither have a sig source of cold so I am unsure why there are rather cool.  This mem is a little colder, EPS is a HKY favored tracked right along the Coast, 850's crash along and west of 95 after most of the precip has lifted north.

 

12zensp006p06204.gif

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By the way, the op 18z GFS has a big winter storm for quite a bit of the SE at hr 264-288 or so.  Verbatim, it's probably all-snow from Burlington, NC westward, for the most part.  The track isn't ideal as it cuts through SE GA and tightly hugs the coast, but it's there.

 

The op 18z GFS also seems to have some accumulating wrap-around snow for parts of the SE at ~hr 192 with the V-Day Storm, FWIW.

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pack - are you basing this solely on the Euro?  Also, is your affinity for the Euro based on any data?  I'm seriously curious.

 

Every model shows some sort of system next week, GGEM/GFS/Euro, tracking to the Apps or just east of the App's.  Ensembles seem a little east of that.  So it seems reasonable to think someone will get a winter storm next week, might not be us though, but it's a shot.

 

Euro has always been the top scoring model, but I thought it was fairly bad in January, but it absolutely nailed this NE storm from 7 days out and the other models took till day 4 to catch on.

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Every model shows some sort of system next week, GGEM/GFS/Euro, tracking to the Apps or just east of the App's.  Ensembles seem a little east of that.  So it seems reasonable to think someone will get a winter storm next week, might not be us though, but it's a shot.

 

Euro has always been the top scoring model, but I thought it was fairly bad in January, but it absolutely nailed this NE storm from 7 days out and the other models took till day 4 to catch on.

 

Ah - I see.

 

To be clear though, you are referencing the Euro and it's statistical reign during winter months, right?

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By the way, the op 18z GFS has a big winter storm for quite a bit of the SE at hr 264-288 or so.  Verbatim, it's probably all-snow from Burlington, NC westward, for the most part.  The track isn't ideal as it cuts through SE GA and tightly hugs the coast, but it's there.

 

The op 18z GFS also seems to have some accumulating wrap-around snow for parts of the SE at ~hr 192 with the V-Day Storm, FWIW.

 

And then another system rolls through with wintry precip around hour 360.  Whether any of these materialize is anyone's guess, but the pattern looks loaded with potential throughout this run. 

 

Also, FWIW, this run of the 18Z keeps the western piedmont of NC basically in the mid-upper 30s for the duration of this rain event commencing tomorrow evening.  It should be chilly, but not quite cold enough.  A classic cold rain...

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JB seems to agree with Robert as well.  He says the 2nd half of Feb. will be incredibly impressive.  He said those that complain about no snow IMBY will have snow in their BY.

 

You have to understand though that JB doesn't know a world exist below the Mason-Dixon line and is referring to the NE when he talks about a lot of snow imby or when he says the Eastern part of the US.

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Well, Goofy has been showing cold air moving down, and southern stream storms moving across for a week or so, in the long range.  Why would there be any surprise?  Do all really think winter is over...in Feb?  Do all think the GFS just spits stuff out for fun?  Do all think the Doc is infallible?  Dang, folks, there is still some mystery to weather, lol.   I'll take my big rains, gladly, gladly... and wait for the mystery :)   And if Boston gets 3 feet, it just proves it's winter to the doubters.   T

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Boy 18z GFS was a blockbuster run in the LR. We really need to hope somehow by a miracle it can score the coup. 

 

It sure was.......Got to love the possibilities. Here is a snippet from GSP concerning the precip in the short-term.....

 

HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE 24-H

QPF PROBABILITIES DO NOT FAVOR TOTALS OVER AN INCH. AT THIS TIME I

CHOSE TO BASE QPF ON THE DGEX WHICH WAS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE

DISTRIBUTION SHOWN ON THE EC...

 

I thought only weenies looked at the DGEX...lol

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Boy 18z GFS was a blockbuster run in the LR. We really need to hope somehow by a miracle it can score the coup. 

 

Gangbuster for the northern MA and NE, don't really see any mechanism to provide enough cold for the SE until the very end of the run, extended long range fantasy land.  Active southern jet, Gulf should have some generous taps over the next two weeks, but without blocking to lock a vortex or HP into SE Canada, or a stout PNA anom, we are almost certainly going to be at a competitive p-type disadvantage.

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Gangbuster for the northern MA and NE, don't really see any mechanism to provide enough cold for the SE until the very end of the run, extended long range fantasy land.  Active southern jet, Gulf should have some generous taps over the next two weeks, but without blocking to lock a vortex or HP into SE Canada, or a stout PNA anom, we are almost certainly going to be at a competitive p-type disadvantage.

 

Don't think we could get a good phase to pull some of that cold air down? It certainly didn't look too far off. Of course when you gotta bank on phase that pretty tells you everything. 

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Don't think we could get a good phase to pull some of that cold air down? It certainly didn't look too far off. Of course when you gotta bank on phase that pretty tells you everything. 

 

Unsure if it would have any meaningful difference.  The issue I see is a deep enough trough being able to establish itself over the eastern US in the next 7-14 days, just do not believe with even a marginal pna spike like the gfs/ens is showing we have enough of a ridge out west to let something dive down and really carve out.   Even if we could blanket a front over the gulf, and maybe have something ride up, without a means to lock systems into the SE Canada, Bay of Fundy, these fronts should quickly move off the east coast narrowing whatever potential window of development on the tail end.  I have been really busy with work so I have not had a great deal of time to look over everything, just call it a preliminary assessment of the next 1-2 weeks. 

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OK, not sure how one wouldn't be encouraged by the look of the 18z GFS after day 7, particularly with the cold vortex rotating around in SE Canada, with some southern stream energy to boot....who knows if it's right though. 

Yeah, it is pretty hard not to like the general 18z gfs pattern for much of the period 2/14-22. However, as Griteater suggests,, the all important Q is whether or not it is close to reality. Based on the Euro being much slower to get the SE into a sustained cold pattern, the cold gfs bias/tendency to rush things, and the warm Dec./Jan. analogs suggesting best shot at really nice pattern being late Feb. into mid March, I'm leaning to it going in the right direction but still being too quick...maybe by at least a week or so. We'll see.

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Guys, I do have a question.  What is the Euro Control Run and how does this differ from the operational run and the ensembles?  I've heard it referenced a few times, but I don't really understand what it is.

 

I'm pretty sure this is how it works...the Euro Ensemble consists of 'x' number of members.  I've read it is 51 total members.  One of the members is the operational run.  The operational is run at a high resolution with a core set of initial conditions (e.g. heights, temperatures, etc. across the globe).  The control is run with the same core set of initial conditions, but at a lower resolution.  For each of the remaining 49 ensemble members, the initial conditions are slightly perturbed - I have no clue how they decide which initial conditions to perturb for each ensemble member, but the goal is obviously for the ensemble members to represent the various possible outcomes with the model run.  The ensemble members are also run at a lower resolution compared to the operational run.

 

By comparison, it looks like the GFS Ensemble has 22 members (based on Allan's site)

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