tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I haven't seen the model run yet since I'm at work but I saw this on FB and thought the euro had to be a decent run in the extended. Then I came here and started reading and didn't know what to think. I'll have to check the euro when I get home but what's being said here sure didn't sound like what Robert was saying. I have seen the operationals and the Euro at 240 doesn't look that bad to me. We have a piece of energy in the southwest (about to come east), a 50/50, with some hints at ridging into Greenland and a PNA poking it's head up along the west coast. I guess you can bet the streak all you want (and rightfully so), but it doesn't look terrible to me by any stretch and if you extrapolate it out another couple of days it has definite potential. In fact, I think it's a time period that could easily be loaded around mid-month. That said, I think playing devils advocate is the prudent thing to be doing. Current pattern has been locked in for the better part of 2 winters so.............it's good to have differing opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This is what Matt posted on Roberts post above! Matthew East Agree..... not sure why there's so much doom and gloom in many camps about the rest of Winter. Overall setup looks pretty promising to me too. I hope you're kidding. Doom and gloom will continue to occur until it actually happens in people's backyard...(Raleigh, Charlotte, etc.) This is not the first time several block busting snow storms were mentioned for our area. I hope Robert is right this time more than anyone else though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah, there's an obvious big disconnect in our opinions. Maybe Robert is referring to the 0Z Euro op. run, which looked a bit better than the 12Z op. Euro at the end? The 11-15 day 12Z Euro ensemble mean is colder in the SE than the 6-10. However, like the 11-15 day 12Z CDN ens. and the 11-15 0Z Euro/CDN ens's, it is not nearly as cold as reent GFS ens. means. Thanks Larry...Yeah I'm not sure which run of the euro Robert is talking about. I know on his FB page under this quote is a pic of the GFS 500mb map. I think over the next few days we'll see where we're heading at the end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm not sure how you can't be at least somewhat excited about the LR of the OP Euro. Is it perfect? No. Given that it's still Feb. it won't take much to pull down more cold air. Again around the same time last year it was a worst setup and the northern half of NC picked up a out of nowhere modest event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah, there's an obvious big disconnect in our opinions. Maybe Robert is referring to the 0Z Euro op. run, which looked a bit better than the 12Z op. Euro at the end? The 11-15 day 12Z Euro ensemble mean is colder in the SE than the 6-10. However, like the 11-15 day 12Z CDN ens. and the 11-15 0Z Euro/CDN ens's, it is not nearly as cold as reent GFS ens. means. Or perhaps he's not simply looking at the models, and he's using his meteorologic knowledge in addition to adjusting things based on typical bias associated with the different models. If you do that, you would have a time period with potential I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I have seen the operationals and the Euro at 240 doesn't look that bad to me. We have a piece of energy in the southwest (about to come east), a 50/50, with some hints at ridging into Greenland and a PNA poking it's head up along the west coast. I guess you can bet the streak all you want (and rightfully so), but it doesn't look terrible to me by any stretch and if you extrapolate it out another couple of days it has definite potential. In fact, I think it's a time period that could easily be loaded around mid-month. That said, I think playing devils advocate is the prudent thing to be doing. Current pattern has been locked in for the better part of 2 winters so.............it's good to have differing opinions. DT mentioned that energy on a post on FB also and thinks that is a storm that needs be payed more attention than the Valentines Day. He mentions another possible Presidents Day storm. He's not calling it but just thinks it needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I hope you're kidding. Doom and gloom will continue to occur until it actually happens in people's backyard...(Raleigh, Charlotte, etc.) This is not the first time several block busting snow storms were mentioned for our area. I hope Robert is right this time more than anyone else though! Just to clarify here, Robert is not calling for any blockbuster snow storms. He is only talking about upcoming patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT mentioned that energy on a post on FB also and thinks that is a storm that needs be payed more attention than the Valentines Day. He mentions another possible Presidents Day storm. He's not calling it but just thinks it needs to be watched. I didn't see his thoughts, but would agree with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Robert wrote his post before the 12Z Euro came out. WRT the 240 map, no it doesn't look cold and snowy. No it doesn't look at all like the 12Z 240 GFS. But it doesn't look like a sustained -PNA either. It looks progressive. There's a big upper low that will move into the Aleutians which should help to pump up the western ridge. It also looks like cold is moving over the Pole to our side of the globe. It certainly doesn't look like a sustained torch or like a sustained cold pattern either. There's still a lot of energy in the flow and certainly there is a lot of room for potential shifts in any of these 10 day model progs. No reason at all to cancel winter and no reason at all to buy a sled. We continue to wait as the clock ticks down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z evolution of GFS showing development of snow cover just south of each new snow pack that occurs. 1.) Starting with nada... 2.) Heavy snow gets thrown down... 3.) Heavy snow gets thrown down south of it... 4.) South-East potential if any occurs in this window...when the GFS loses resolution. (Beyond hour 200.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Robert posted after the 12z euro this afternoon. He liked the overall pattern that the GFS and now the Euro was starting to come around to. He didn't mention specific storms just patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Aftn disco from CPC... 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 20 2013 TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE MIDWEST. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ALSO FORECAST A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE AO INDEX IS PREDICTED BY MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVE DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF- AND CANADIAN-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE FORECAST ATLANTIC RIDGE AS THE GFS, ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE PREDICTED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS ALSO HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE FORECAST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THE OFFICIAL WEEK TWO 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND IS WEIGHTED FAIRLY EVENLY AMONG THE GFS-, ECMWF-, AND CANADIAN-BASED SOLUTIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS UNDERNEATH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST RIDGING OVER ALASKA LEADS TO ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EAST AND GULF COASTS OF THE CONUS AROUND AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Aftn disco from CPC... 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 20 2013 TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE MIDWEST. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ALSO FORECAST A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE AO INDEX IS PREDICTED BY MANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO BECOME STRONGLY NEGATIVE DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF- AND CANADIAN-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE FORECAST ATLANTIC RIDGE AS THE GFS, ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE PREDICTED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS ALSO HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE FORECAST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THE OFFICIAL WEEK TWO 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND IS WEIGHTED FAIRLY EVENLY AMONG THE GFS-, ECMWF-, AND CANADIAN-BASED SOLUTIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS UNDERNEATH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST RIDGING OVER ALASKA LEADS TO ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EAST AND GULF COASTS OF THE CONUS AROUND AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. These guys are good. If they are leaning toward a "blend" I would think potential will soon show its face again in some parts of the southeast. It will be interesting to see how taking a "blend" works out for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Robert posted after the 12z euro this afternoon. He liked the overall pattern that the GFS and now the Euro was starting to come around to. He didn't mention specific storms just patterns. I thought I read that earlier in the day....on his blog, I mean. I haven't checked his FB page. My bad then. I will run a Level 3 diagnostic on my internal chronometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 JB seems to agree with Robert as well. He says the 2nd half of Feb. will be incredibly impressive. He said those that complain about no snow IMBY will have snow in their BY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I thought I read that earlier in the day....on his blog, I mean. I haven't checked his FB page. My bad then. I will run a Level 3 diagnostic on my internal chronometer. It could have been earlier on his blog. I didn't see it there. Level 3?? Go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 These guys are good. If they are leaning toward a "blend" I would think potential will soon show its face again in some parts of the southeast. It will be interesting to see how taking a "blend" works out for them. IMO...the CPC is taking a realistic and simplistic approach for days 8-14. I would not bet against cooler weather coming after a widespread wetting...places that blaze like Waycross would even take a beating on the heat if 5-6+ inches of rain did come to fruition for a widespread area (New Orleans,LA to Wilmington,NC.) Could this set the stage for possible winter weather? Hard to say how long it does stay cooler and when the next precipitation event occurs tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z Euro EPS control run is a big winterstorm for the SE, day 7-8. The Euro is back to being top dog, it was the only model at this range that showed the winter storm for the NE and the rest of the modeling fell in line. Just stating the facts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We all know that I have been pessimistic about the winter, but I am glad some have cashed in a bit. I am just glad we are talking about the potential for heavy rain around this parts of GA. We need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z Euro EPS control run is a big winterstorm for the SE, day 7-8. The Euro is back to being top dog, it was the only model at this range that showed the winter storm for the NE and the rest of the modeling fell in line. Just stating the facts... I have been thinking the 10th forward would provide opportunity, though there are a LOT that have thrown in the towel. It would be nice to see a "classic" system before the winter is over. I hope the control run is onto something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z Euro EPS control run is a big winterstorm for the SE, day 7-8. The Euro is back to being top dog, it was the only model at this range that showed the winter storm for the NE and the rest of the modeling fell in line. Just stating the facts... How does the EURO go back to being top dog because it shows a winter storm on day 7+ ? This could easily be Deja Vu all over again. Reference #1 last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We all know that I have been pessimistic about the winter, but I am glad some have cashed in a bit. I am just glad we are talking about the potential for heavy rain around this parts of GA. We need it! I hope you guys get it too Delta! In fact, I would love it if the axis stayed down in the deep south and lower southeast. Here at KTRI we simply cant take any more water (over 10 inches in the last 35 days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12 euro ensembles to 240 no longer dump the core of the cold into the west. Its into the plains, infact starting at hour 168 it has below normal temps for the upper south at 850 then keeps most of the rest of the southeast below till the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Latest EURO in...nothing major for NY standards. 6-12" for NYC. 24-36" showing up in Massachusetts tho. I have a friend from Billerica MA, I'll see if I can get some pics and post in the banter later. EURO has 2'+ there. All i know is i got a call today to take trucks to New York to plow for DOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It could have been earlier on his blog. I didn't see it there. Level 3?? Go for it. I went back and reread this page of the thread and clearly you guys were talking about FB. It's not my internal chronometer that's the problem. It seems to be more of the visual interpretation processor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Too much bojangles and waffle house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How does the EURO go back to being top dog because it shows a winter storm on day 7+ ? This could easily be Deja Vu all over again. Reference #1 last month. The Euro nailed the NE storm for this Friday from 7+ days out, no other model caught on until inside 96 hours. Top dog.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 All i know is i got a call today to take trucks to New York to plow for DOT. The entire state of NY is covered in a Winter Storm Watch...probably because of widespread coverage. NWS going with 4-10 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro nailed the NE storm for this Friday from 7+ days out, no other model caught on until inside 96 hours. Top dog.... One event for Boston and parts of NE does not make it a top dog here in the SE. I hope the control run is right though but honestly think the window of opportunity would be after that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z Euro EPS control run is a big winterstorm for the SE, day 7-8. The Euro is back to being top dog, it was the only model at this range that showed the winter storm for the NE and the rest of the modeling fell in line. Just stating the facts... Details?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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