February Pattern and Storm Discussion

[pcbjr]

Is it me or are the Beta Model Center maps not working?

[GaWx]

.

#3 The euro is just as cold in that time frame as the gefs, it just dumps the core in the west. So really both models are just as cold.

 

 But it still isn't as cold for the SE. Why do you keep saying both models are equally cold based on the Euro being colder out west when the SE is clearly warmer on the Euro? Isn't it much more important how cold it is in the SE, itself? If the core of the cold is really dumped out west, it won't get as cold in the SE as it would modify on its way here. The Euro is ~7 F warmer in the 11-15 in the SE US. It seems like you're assuming the Euro is going to be wrong in dumping the cold out west. Nonbody knows that at this time.

[griteater]

I'm not big on the V-day storm, but the 12z CMC is a straight up snowstorm for the 'NW portions of the SE' (on 2/13 actually)

 

12z GFS placement and strength of closed high right up the western Canadian border at hr216-252 is a classic locale for subsequent cold in the SE.

[griteater]

.

 

 But it still isn't as cold for the SE. Why do you keep saying both models are equally cold based on the Euro being colder out west when the SE is clearly warmer on the Euro? Isn't it much more important how cold it is in the SE, itself? If the core of the cold is really dumped out west, it won't get as cold in the SE as it would modify on its way here. The Euro is ~7 F warmer in the 11-15 in the SE US. It seems like you're assuming the Euro is going to be wrong in dumping the cold out west. Nonbody knows that at this time.

Agree with this...don't have consensus...it's a wait and see

[franklin NCwx]

.

 

 But it still isn't as cold for the SE. Why do you keep saying both models are equally cold based on the Euro being colder out west when the SE is clearly warmer on the Euro? Isn't it much more important how cold it is in the SE, itself? If the core of the cold is really dumped out west, it won't get as cold in the SE as it would modify on its way here. The Euro is ~7 F warmer in the 11-15 in the SE US. It seems like you're assuming the Euro is going to be wrong in dumping the cold out west. Nonbody knows that at this time.

I never said which model is right or wrong. The best thing to do is usually take a blend of the two. And if you want to know where I stand I think the trough axis sets up in the plains to start. My point is that the GFS and Euro are both as cold as each other. One dumps the cold into the west the other in the east. You can't just say " GFS cold bias" and move on. Most of this has to do with the handling of the features in the Pacific. The euro also has a bias of digging troughs into the southwest. This causes height rises in the southeast (warmer temps). Maybe the gfs is too cold in the long range, I don't really pay attention to that. I am mainly looking at 500mb patterns.

[packbacker]

12z GEFS has a coastal off NC coast day 8 (V day) with it cold enough for snow.

[franklin NCwx]

12z GEFS has a coastal off NC coast day 8 (V day) with it cold enough for snow.

Here is a link, is this the same site you are using?

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=162&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=72520&PERIOD=

[packbacker]

Here is a link, is this the same site you are using?

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=162&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=72520&PERIOD=

 

Nice site, don't use that one, I use SV.  Not sure why Allan's isn't updating.

[NavarreDon]

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx

For all who use my model page. I am having a network issue and I have been out of town. The issue should be resolved in next few hours.

[POWERSTROKE]

Euro must look great with 12 members on the whole forum  

[Inudaw]

I think everyone got stuck looking at the storm that New England is about to get.        *shrugs*

[pcbjr]

^

Just sitting back waiting to see what the models do for a few runs ...

 

Actually, I know Allan is having some site issues but for whatever reason I'm having difficulty getting other model sites to run right now.

 

So, here's a polite request for some verbal summary to supplement what's been posted above.

[Inudaw]

Latest euro has a low in far south western Georgia.   Temps look warm for the most of the south-east at this point.      Not much to get cold air down at this time for it. 

[jaxjagman]

^

Just sitting back waiting to see what the models do for a few runs ...

 

Actually, I know Allan is having some site issues but for whatever reason I'm having difficulty getting other model sites to run right now.

 

So, here's a polite request for some verbal summary to supplement what's been posted above.

Use this site    

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013020612&region=USA&var=TMP_850mb&hour=192

[POWERSTROKE]

I think everyone got stuck looking at the storm that New England is about to get.        *shrugs*

yea I just got a call to go help plow in New York supposedly around 2 feet coming

[packfan98]

This was posted by a met in the New England forum about why the Friday Storm can track favorably.  If this pattern can hold, we will have some chances down the road (miller A).

relax.jpg

[GaWx]

12Z Euro is quite a bit warmer than the 12Z GFS in the 8-10 day and it again has no sig. SE winter storm in the 6-10 day.

 

Edit: day 10 map suggests no significant SE cold soon afterward. Suggests more of  a -PNAish pattern.

 

Edit #2: 12Z Euro suggests the cold 12Z GFS day 10 map is on crack and vice versa.

[beanskip]

Yes, a much different rain storm.

1021mb "high" pressure - LOL.

Canadian has the best track, by far, of all the models and it still basically never gets below freezing anywhere in NC and almost all of Virginia.

Euro is not even close. GFS is a Lakes Cutter.

This "event" is going nowhere and the pattern looks terrible down the line despite day after day of anomoly maps showing how great it is.

12z cmc at 168, much different than the gfs.

 

 

[tnweathernut]

You guys are Debbie downers. lol. On the optimistic side of things, the Euro is still moving toward the GFS in the extended.

[bhamwx205]

You guys are Debbie downers. lol. On the optimistic side of things, the Euro is still moving toward the GFS in the extended.

yep shows signs of a pna.....

[GaWx]

yep shows signs of a pna.....

 

Yes, it does...but much closer to a -PNA than a +PNA on day 10 of the 12Z Euro. A -PNA is generally not good for cold in the SE. Cold out west and maybe into the Plains? Yes, that's a different story. If the cold ever gets to the SE, it would normally be quite modified by then.

 

Edit: The 12Z Euro 228 hour map is actually worse looking than the 0Z Euro 240 hour map imo. Not a good run for SE cold lovers.

[griteater]

Euro and GFS are quite a bit different in my view post V-day.  Euro has trough in west (which matches NCEP's thoughts on how the MJO is progressing)...and GFS has trough in central/east U.S.  Euro has muted ridging in NE Pacific, while GFS has stout ridge centered on W Canada coast.

[bhamwx205]

Yes, it does...but much closer to a -PNA than a +PNA on day 10 of the 12Z Euro. A -PNA is generally not good for cold in the SE. Cold out west and maybe into the Plains? Yes, that's a different story. If the cold ever gets to the SE, it would normally be quite modified by then.

Edit: The 12Z Euro 228 hour map is actually worse looking than the 0Z Euro 240 hour map imo. Not a good run for SE cold lovers.

your right larry. so now we have the gfs and its ensembles vs the euro and its ensembles.

ill go with the euro

[GaStorm]

So which model does better at predicting the MJO? The Euro?

[WilkesboroDude]

yea I just got a call to go help plow in New York supposedly around 2 feet coming

 

Latest EURO in...nothing major for NY standards. 6-12" for NYC. 24-36" showing up in Massachusetts tho. 

 

I have a friend from Billerica MA, I'll see if I can get some pics and post in the banter later. EURO has 2'+ there. 

[superjames1992]

From Robert's WxSouth Facebook page:

 

http://www.facebook.com/WxSouth

 

"European also joining GFS in the longer range. 5 days ago the GFS was showing a building amplified ridge out west and deep trough for central states, bringing in a cold blast and active weather. Now the GFS has it within its 9 and 10 day maps, so does the European, so this is getting more support. It looks like a very active period is coming and probably the most snowy of the Winter so far for some areas, but it's hard to say who will bear the brunt of the February snowstorms (besides New England soon). Considering all factors, the central and eastern states will probably have a very active Winter storm pattern by mid February, with several snowstorms and some of them could be blockbusters for some areas. That includes Oklahoma to Kentucky, Tennessee, the Carolinas and Virginia, northern Ms/Al/Ga as this area will be the likely storm tracks.

 

Example of the extreme ridge (Euro has the ridge strong on day 10, and getting stronger/taller later on most likely)"

[WilkesboroDude]

HPC shifting 6+ inch rains into SC...not saying it will happen but hell no disco. on it.

 

[rduwx]

From Robert's WxSouth Facebook page:

 

http://www.facebook.com/WxSouth

 

"European also joining GFS in the longer range. 5 days ago the GFS was showing a building amplified ridge out west and deep trough for central states, bringing in a cold blast and active weather. Now the GFS has it within its 9 and 10 day maps, so does the European, so this is getting more support. It looks like a very active period is coming and probably the most snowy of the Winter so far for some areas, but it's hard to say who will bear the brunt of the February snowstorms (besides New England soon). Considering all factors, the central and eastern states will probably have a very active Winter storm pattern by mid February, with several snowstorms and some of them could be blockbusters for some areas. That includes Oklahoma to Kentucky, Tennessee, the Carolinas and Virginia, northern Ms/Al/Ga as this area will be the likely storm tracks.

 

Example of the extreme ridge (Euro has the ridge strong on day 10, and getting stronger/taller later on most likely)"

I haven't seen the model run yet since I'm at work but I saw this on FB and thought the euro had to be a decent run in the extended. Then I came here and started reading and didn't know what to think. I'll have to check the euro when I get home but what's being said here sure didn't sound like what Robert was saying.

[scsnowgirl]

This is what Matt posted on Roberts post above!  Matthew East Agree..... not sure why there's so much doom and gloom in many camps about the rest of Winter. Overall setup looks pretty promising to me too.

[GaWx]

I haven't seen the model run yet since I'm at work but I saw this on FB and thought the euro had to be a decent run in the extended. Then I came here and started reading and didn't know what to think. I'll have to check the euro when I get home but what's being said here sure didn't sound like what Robert was saying.

 

Yeah, there's an obvious big disconnect in our opinions. Maybe Robert is referring to the 0Z Euro op. run, which looked a bit better than the 12Z op. Euro at the end?

 

 The 11-15 day 12Z Euro ensemble mean is colder in the SE than the 6-10. However, like the 11-15 day 12Z CDN ens. and the 11-15 0Z Euro/CDN ens's, it is not nearly as cold as reent GFS ens. means.