jmundie Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 While it still may be looking bleak for those of you in the "true" southeast - if the ensembles are any indication, those of us in the mid south (ark, middle and west tn, kentucky) look to have a blockbuster pattern setting up. Almost all ensemble members now have multiple southern stream storms with similar evolution from day 8 through the end of the period. Primary storm track looks to be apps to just east of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 While it still may be looking bleak for those of you in the "true" southeast - if the ensembles are any indication, those of us in the mid south (ark, middle and west tn, kentucky) look to have a blockbuster pattern setting up. Almost all ensemble members now have multiple southern stream storms with similar evolution from day 8 through the end of the period. Primary storm track looks to be apps to just east of the apps. May not amount to anything, but I agree, the GFS Ensembles continue to suggest potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 May not amount to anything, but I agree, the GFS Ensembles continue to suggest potential They are cold D10+....at least what I can see on Allan's site (which seems to be rather glitchy today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The triad area looks to have a couple of decent chances beginning around d10. Odds drop off as you head south and east (and improve dramatically as you head north. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 From Allan... Essentially we are seeing a battle between the models as to how the middle to latter part of February is going to look. The GFS and GFS Ensemble continues to be cold. Make no mistake the Ensemble guidance looks cold and stormy by Valentine’s Day and beyond with a strong –EPO ridge and blocking in the polar regions. However, the ECMWF and GGEM Ensemble guidance wants to center the cold in the Rockies/Plains with a general ridge over the eastern US and it keeps this general idea through the forecast period perhaps breaking it down late in the period. The ECMWF weeklies are also similar to this idea while the CFS weeklies are closer to the GFS ideas. Part of the difference could be in how the models are forecasting the current MJO pulse to progress. The MJO wave is currently solidly in phase 1 and progressing. However, the GFS Ensemble forecast is for this wave to weaken and stall in phases 1,2. Phase 2 in February favors a ridge on the west coast and trough in the Lakes/East. However, the ECMWF favors the pulse to progress into phases 3 and 4 and then weaken. Consequently those are warmer phases for the eastern US with a ridge present. So perhaps this is the reason for the difference, perhaps not. With the ECMWF/GGEM Ensemble both showing the cold in the Rockies/Plains as opposed to the East, and the fact that this winter that has been much more likely then in the east, for now I favor that scenario.However, if the Euro/GGEM ENS guidance trends colder today that will be a sign the GFS is on the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I have access to the euro ensembles 2m temps for days 11-15. They dump more of the cold into the west during this time period but they have really lost the torch it had going for western NC, and looks to be normal to slightly below now. The GFS ensembles are a winter lovers dream. From what I can see looking at the 500mb pattern the gefs have really been consistent with the epo ridge and the euro has moved more towards it than gefs towards the euro. Time will tell as usual. It looks like the gefs actually take the mjo wave into the cod, while the euro ensembles continue it all the way into phase 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I have access to the euro ensembles 2m temps for days 11-15. They dump more of the cold into the west during this time period but they have really lost the torch it had going for western NC, and looks to be normal to slightly below now. The GFS ensembles are a winter lovers dream. From what I can see looking at the 500mb pattern the gefs have really been consistent with the epo ridge and the euro has moved more towards it than gefs towards the euro. Time will tell as usual. It looks like the gefs actually take the mjo wave into the cod, while the euro ensembles continue it all the way into phase 4. Very tempting to get drawn back in because the GFS has been good this year sniffing out long range patterns and ridges IMO. However it's been a long time since we've had a cold late February. Even in 09-11 I believe our spring's came early (with cold in Dec and Jan) if I recall correctly. I think "bet the streak" comes in to play here as it just seems to "want" to get warm. Grass/flowers are growing, birds are back, and it's getting darker later and later. Until the EURO makes a significant move, I'm not expecting anything. Next year will be rocking though!! (It has to doesn't it??) The atmosphere owes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well, at least some of the modeling is looking good...this is from overnight NCEP Superensemble - 1st image is for days 6-10, 2nd image is for days 8-14 http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/826/500hgtcompsup610.gif/'> http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/593/500hgtcompsup814.gif/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well, at least some of the modeling is looking good...this is from overnight NCEP Superensemble - 1st image is for days 6-10, 2nd image is for days 8-14 It's been a little while since those maps have looked that good. Are any of those years big storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's been a little while since those maps have looked that good. Are any of those years big storms? Yeah, didn't want to go there, but that's the best I've seen them look in over 2 years. Could be a blip though. Could vanish into thin air tomorrow. There were a few moderate snow events sprinkled in there close to those analog dates for CLT/RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well, at least some of the modeling is looking good...this is from overnight NCEP Superensemble - 1st image is for days 6-10, 2nd image is for days 8-14 Wow, those do look good. Very GFS like if I'm not mistaken; ridgey and blockey. Weren't they just warm though a few days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow, those do look good. Very GFS like if I'm not mistaken; ridgey and blockey. Weren't they just warm though a few days ago? They've been progressing to more of a central/eastern U.S. trough....but not with this much blocking and low heights across the south/southwest states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Does this increase our interest in the valentines day storm? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 They've been progressing to more of a central/eastern U.S. trough....but not with this much blocking and low heights across the south/southwest states Yeah maybe just a hiccup. I tell you though those blocks look STRONG. No apps runners I'd guess if that comes to life. That along with the active southern jet and we'd be in business. Ok....now look what you've done. I'm possibly considering this may possibly.....could maybe happen. Thanks alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Both GFS and NAM show beneficial rains in central GA to central SC tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 And that, to me, is what makes this winter better than the last several. Rains have found us down here again. Apparently they don't like us as much as Tenn. and NC, but it's far better than recent winters. Rain, cold, timing. One and a half out of three ain't all that bad, lol. Keep the rains, with some marginal cold hanging around....always a chance for timing. And the last chance for at least flurry cold is usually the weekend at the Masters. It ain't over until it's over...and then it might not be over. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We are going to need a separate thread for the Valentine's Day storm -- but it will be for the severe threat, not winter weather. 12z GFS has the surface low cutting NE through Mississippi and into west-central Tenn. How much for Missouri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We are going to need a separate thread for the Valentine's Day storm -- but it will be for the severe threat, not winter weather. 12z GFS has the surface low cutting NE through Mississippi and into west-central Tenn. How much for Missouri? The euro was flat and ots the cmc had a miller A. Lots of spread. GFS is phasing at day 7+, we know how that usually works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The euro was flat and ots the cmc had a miller A. Lots of spread. GFS is phasing at day 7+, we know how that usually works out. Even if it's not an Apps runner I think it's not cold enough. Storms after this storm will have more of a chance; if we're buying what the GFS is selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The euro was flat and ots the cmc had a miller A. Lots of spread. GFS is phasing at day 7+, we know how that usually works out. GFS keeps trending west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Without any high pressure, it's moot. The euro was flat and ots the cmc had a miller A. Lots of spread. GFS is phasing at day 7+, we know how that usually works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS keeps trending west. LOL.. well, there is no blocking. My point is that any solution is on the table for now with the amount of spread in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Even if it's not an Apps runner I think it's not cold enough. Storms after this storm will have more of a chance; if we're buying what the GFS is selling. It's a thread the needle for my area, it's even worse for you. This is where a nice block over the Davis Strait area comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Which solution is actually showing a winter storm for the southeast? Just because there is a lot of spread doesn't really mean anything -- if the spread is: a bunch of different ways to get to a rainstorm, why does it really matter? There is no significant high pressure modeled by any of the computer models. Without that, the low can pass anywhere from Idaho to Nassau -- it's not going to matter. LOL.. well, there is no blocking. My point is that any solution is on the table for now with the amount of spread in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like the vday storm is going to bring in the cold,and the next storm will be rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Which solution is actually showing a winter storm for the southeast? Just because there is a lot of spread doesn't really mean anything -- if the spread is: a bunch of different ways to get to a rainstorm, why does it really matter? There is no significant high pressure modeled by any of the computer models. Without that, the low can pass anywhere from Idaho to Nassau -- it's not going to matter. The CMC was for the upper south. I'm not talking about anyone southeast of the apps. And yes it can snow without a HP for my area and a few others. Even if there is a high,a low can still cut and miller B. I'm not real sure on why you get so hung up on details from op runs so far out? Look at the all the models and ensembles, there is a ton of spread! Just to add, I'm not calling for a snowstorm at all, for anyone. I'm simply pointing out the difference in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maybe you consider a legtimate cold air source a "detail," but I've found it quite an important ingredient for winter storms. Regarding ensembles -- I've seen ensemble height anomoly maps posted all winter from the 10-14 day range. Obviously, they haven't translated to the sensible weather. Your post #2302 from the January thread, made on Jan. 30, showed below normal heights for most of the continental U.S. in the Day 10-15 range. That was 7 days ago -- so in the 3-8 day range, how is that working out? The GFS has a known cold bias in the long range -- it keeps showing cold weather in the 10-15 day range and it keeps modifying those projections as we get within 10 days. The CMC was for the upper south. I'm not talking about anyone southeast of the apps. And yes it can snow without a HP for my area and a few others. Even if there is a high a low can still cut and miller B. I'm not real sure on why you get so hung up on details from op runs so far out? Look at the all the models and ensembles, there is a ton of spread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 CMC and ukie at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maybe you consider a legtimate cold air source a "detail," but I've found it quite an important ingredient for winter storms. Regarding ensembles -- I've seen ensemble height anomoly maps posted all winter from the 10-14 day range. Obviously, they haven't translated to the sensible weather. Your post #2302 from the January thread, made on Jan. 30, showed below normal heights for most of the continental U.S. in the Day 10-15 range. That was 7 days ago -- so in the 3-8 day range, how is that working out? The GFS has a known cold bias in the long range -- it keeps showing cold weather in the 10-15 day range and it keeps modifying those projections as we get within 10 days. #1 No doubt a nice arctic high is what you want to see, never said that I don't want that. #2 Pattern shown at that time frame on the ensembles is now showing up in the 5-10 for mid week of next week. It looks like it right on track. Also it's shown on the other major ensembles. #3 The euro is just as cold in that time frame as the gefs, it just dumps the core in the west. So really both models are just as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z cmc at 168, much different than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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