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February Pattern and Storm Discussion

POWERSTROKE

By POWERSTROKE,
in Southeastern States

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Can't post the Euro maps but I will try to describe them to the best of my ability.  Big differences at H5 between the GFS and Euro for the V-Day storm.  While I do think confidence is slowly increasing that we will see a storm in the period, the mechanism by which the two models arrive at one is pretty different.  The Euro holds more energy back over the central Plains around hr180, phasing it in to the southern stream energy that comes in through Baja to TX track, roughly.  GFS on the other hand derives whatever gets trapped in the southern jet from northern stream energy diving deep in to the inter mountain west, then splitting it off.  Euro leaving the energy back in the central plains prevents to some extent any chance for a suppressed system, which results in a positive oriented trough at 192, as even more energy is coming down through the GL stringing the wave out.  If you were to take a mean of the H5 energy on both models, you would have a pretty big EC storm imo.

 

Just not one that favors the SE US...  We can get big snow storms without a strong hp to our north, this happens more often then some may think.  In the absence of a strong hp, we like to see some variant of a polar vortex, which I am not seeing any evidence of.  Secondly, we would want to see a strong hp coming out of Canada, through the Plains, which shunts the system east rather than up the coast.  Again, not seeing it.  Sure things could change, and a few of the ens mems are flirting with something of significance. but major shifts will have to happen before we can start getting our hopes up.

 

18z GFS is pretty close right before trunk, take that local vortmax over IA and shift it to OK, that would sharpen the trough nicely, neg tilt thereafter, far enough east of the MS for min impacts north of VA.

post-382-0-47711400-1360106999_thumb.jpg

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MichaelJ

MichaelJ

Posted
Posted

Guys, there will be plenty of precipitation from the next few storms and some cool, but not cold air as has been the case for the vast majority of this winter. We have seen this long range scenario of cold coming in to the SE all winter and it just hasn't happened except in a trsansient manner and I don't see that changing now. Hate to be so negative but I don't see a mechanism to bring cold air in and we have to face the facts that this winter just has not/will not favor us from Va., southward (except for some high mountains of course). How many times has the CSV2 showed us with snowcover in the 20-40 day long range and it hasn't materialized so I say just bring on Spring (and no more flooding rains in NC this winter please).

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

My take on it is this. We were in the same boat last year except even more dismal when it came to the pattern. We are getting into a time where climo wise we have a very good chance to cash in. Right now it looks like  unless a ULL shows up NC, TN and VA are in the prime spots outside of the typical MA and SNE spots to see something good. Those I-40 N especially. The pattern on the surface doesn't look great but something can pop and it's about the time for it.

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Southern Track

Southern Track

Posted
Posted

Wxeastern is getting everyone hyped up on Facebook about the consecutive Euro runs showing next weeks storm. Robert did post a comment on Wxeastern's post, in that he thought it resembled the Jan. '87 storm a little on the Euro. Take that for what it's worth. That '87 storm wasn't that cold for our area, I know that much, and we still had a foot.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Wxeastern is getting everyone hyped up on Facebook about the consecutive Euro runs showing next weeks storm. Robert did post a comment on Wxeastern's post, in that he thought it resembled the Jan. '87 storm a little on the Euro. Take that for what it's worth. That '87 storm wasn't that cold for our area, I know that much, and we still had a foot.

 

This one?

 

accum.19870123.gif

 

Talk about a sharp cutoff between 10"+ and almost nothing...  :lmao:

 

19870121-19870123-5.40.jpg

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

Frank Strait says VD storm next week if you like the euro has possibilities .  there could be a swath of heavy snow from southern Arkansas thru the Apps to the northeast as the cold air is trying to come back at that time.  But as we all know thats a big if, it would have to be a needle threader.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Wxeastern is getting everyone hyped up on Facebook about the consecutive Euro runs showing next weeks storm. Robert did post a comment on Wxeastern's post, in that he thought it resembled the Jan. '87 storm a little on the Euro. Take that for what it's worth. That '87 storm wasn't that cold for our area, I know that much, and we still had a foot.

 

 The Jan. 1987 storm was a classic Miller A that moved from E of Brownsville to over N Florida and then up the Atlantic coast. That one did give Atlanta a major snow. KATL's high just prior to this storm was only 40 F. So, while not very cold, it was pretty chilly in advance. However, it was still only barely cold enough to give Atlanta that major snow as it was a little above 32 for most of it. A large majority of major Atlanta snows going back to the late 1800's (as well as surrounding areas of N Ga and portions of nearby states with similar latitude) were associated with Miller A's with similar tracks to Jan. 1987. As currently depicted by the Euro, it starts off in a very similar location in the western GOM but then it tracks a good bit further north as it comes into S or C AL and then moves over central GA. The track needs to be ~100+ miles south of the 0Z Euro track and ~150+ miles south of the 12Z Euro track to have even a halfway decent shot at giving much of N GA and nearby areas more than a minimal amount of snow imo. Interestingly, the 0Z Euro as depicted **fwiw** is close to giving much of N GA and into the CAD areas of SC/NC a sig. amount of ZR from that Miller B'ish prog 2/13-14. ZR storms more often than not aren't Miller A's and have a track a good bit further NW than a typical major snow producing Miller A.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Earl Barkers models page for 72-144 and meteociel for the whole run to 192. Not showing much... Couple of the GFS mems look good after 192, until ten, just a plain Jane rain wet pattern for most.

Thanks! Check out the 21z Sref for Thursday. Has Ice over a good chunk of NC. Of course this is way beyond it's range IMO, but entertaining.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/21zsrefptype036.gif

18z Dgex also has LP in Columbia 2/13. The confluence up in NE needs soe work for our temps though.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Several dynamical MJO models are now killing the MJO wave...that can't be good if you were forecasting a stellar February...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

It's interesting that the latest MJO update from CPC/NCEP (yesterday) says this...

 

"For the U.S., the MJO favors, on average, the development of a mean trough across the western U.S. during mid-February suggesting elevated chances for below normal temperatures. As we approach the end of February, the MJO would favor troughing near or along the west coast and a tendency toward a mean ridge across the eastern U.S.."

 

however, the GFS Ensembles are showing the complete opposite (central / eastern U.S. trough)

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ncwinterwxman

ncwinterwxman

Posted
Posted

Exactly why the Euro is typically the model of choice in the longer range and why it will likely win the battle (if it is still forecasting a warmer pattern in the East than the GFS as it was a few days ago)

It's interesting that the latest MJO update from CPC/NCEP (yesterday) says this...

 

"For the U.S., the MJO favors, on average, the development of a mean trough across the western U.S. during mid-February suggesting elevated chances for below normal temperatures. As we approach the end of February, the MJO would favor troughing near or along the west coast and a tendency toward a mean ridge across the eastern U.S.."

 

however, the GFS Ensembles are showing the complete opposite (central / eastern U.S. trough)

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Exactly why the Euro is typically the model of choice in the longer range and why it will likely win the battle (if it is still forecasting a warmer pattern in the East than the GFS as it was a few days ago)

 

I haven't seen the LR Euro maps, but I'm pretty sure the Euro has been trending towards the GFS over the last few days.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

Pretty boring right now. No blocking all winter, no sustained cold air alot of what if's. Its not over yet but time is running out. Still better than last winter

 

 

Amount wise for me it is still technically worse than last winter. There are other factors that make a good argument otherwise I guess though.

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Mr Bob

Mr Bob

Posted
Posted

I haven't seen the LR Euro maps, but I'm pretty sure the Euro has been trending towards the GFS over the last few days.

You have not seen the maps but you are sure it is trending toward the GFS? Interesting.

Still the same old same old on the Euro through day 15...as alluded to above... :sleepy:

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