Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 We made due with the March 2nd-3rd, 2010 storm with only a weak 1026 mb HP in place up in Manitoba. Of course, that was also a very strong storm at 996 mb off the coast of ILM and we fought with boundary layer temps quite a bit (though it was all snow here, at least, though a wet one with temps ranging from 33-35). That was in March, too. It's obviously not ideal, though. EDIT: I don't have the map, but I also don't recall a strong HP being in place before the 2000 Carolina Crusher. I might be wrong, though. You're right, but this is such a hard conversation to have in generalities because as is often the case, there is so much uniqueness to each storm. In most cases, I want to see a good cold air source and a good cold air feed. A marginal air mass can produce if everything falls into place just right with the evolution and track of a storm. But quite often, you deal with boundary layer issues like you mentioned or it's more of an isolated event as opposed to a wide spread storm. Without that good cold air feed into a storm, you usually have to thread a smaller needle with a bigger string in the dark using only one hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The one this week will be a cold rain. The one to start watching which could be a storm that cuts to our west would be the Valentine's day storm. Here is last nights euro run. If it would have kept one low and ran it up the coast it would have been good for us. Instead in runs one up to our west and one up the coast flooding us with warm air in the mid levels. This is a close call depicted by the Euro. It's plausible because the GFS has the same setup about 48 hours prior. The GFS the last few runs has had the closed low over the sw, 2 contours open up and eject on out and cut for the lakes. looks like the euro holds the energy back, then tracks along GOM. This is the GFS day 10-15 Valentine storm that has been showing up and getting posted the past few days. It's now within the Euro 240(10 day window). I'm interested to see if the Euro can keep showing this the next few runs or if it will let go a couple days quicker of the energy in the SW like the GFS. The longer the energy stays out sw the better chance to keep it suppressed and not cut up to our west as well as get the cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I have been wondering how a storm blowing up on the northeast coast affects the long range. (Similar to the Ukie or Euro). Is this of minimal importance to the long range or fairly significant? My guess is that the bigger feature we want to see is the nice ridging into Alaska. If we get that we can then look for any features that may become a 50/50. I guess we will find out how the storm blowing up on the east coast affects the longer range (now that the GFS is on board). I am thinking the GFS is too progressive and the euro is too slow, meaning we get a trough but it can only get so far into the southeast or Deep South. Purely speculation at this point, but would fit the trend with troughs in the east to this point. We will soon see how the sensible weather actually verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Latest GFS is running and Thursday night still looks too warm. Here's hour 66 showing a nice placement of an LP along the coast with the expected moisture transport back up into the WNC. But, while the damming signature is present, the temps don't get quite low enough for anything frozen at the surface, even if the upper levels were okay (which they're not either). A lot would need to change to make this a wintry to event, but there's no harm in continuing to curiously follow the situation. It's a shame that we have such an excellent LP track only to have it wasted with too warm temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This looks like a classic case of cold chasing moisture, which moisture almost always wins in the South. We might see some snow in the highest elevations of the NC mountains but a cold rain everywhere else if the GFS depiction is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yep, we finally get a beautiful Miller A setup...but, it's going to be too warm to get any wintry precip out of it here in the South. Track of low is right along the gulf and up along the east coast before bringing some potentially nice snows to the NE. Calc, I think we all agree we need a pattern change. And the start for a pattern change is for it to start And the Vday time is a good one, and I'm willing to start it We've got a gom low that wants to form and cold air that wants to invade Ga. We just need them to over lap. And Goofy is trying to do that for us (me). The set up on the 06 is one that could give me and El K, Delta, and maybe even crazy Metalic, some good ip/sn to start the change ball rolling, and I think I can speak for all of the foremention in saying we are happy to oblige. Just need that 0 line down further, and that moisture up further, but it's close. The southern stream has the juice in it again, and the cold air keeps showing up in the LR. Now Larry, says the GFS is probably stilll showing it's cold tendency, and is a bit early bringing down the polar air, but it is close to his wheel house too, so I'm alert to the tendancys, and as I say, the pattern has to change at some point, and now's as good a time as any. Get the split flow, get the rigdge/trough like we want, pull in some blocking, hey presto, winter! No more improbable than winter being over in early Feb. I like the way the long range is looking, and that's saying something as Goofy has looked like crap for years, so any improvement is a good thing. The ultra crazy range cold keeps coming in a frame earlier, the moisture keeps shunting across the gulf region..it could happen....it could Ok, so the 12 gives a cutter and leaves a weakness...it's a model, it doesn't know, lol. So maybe the cutter comes in a day earlier, and a low forms on the weakness. That gives the cold air a chance to penetrate down state further...it's all good They'll have to drag me kicking and screaming into summer, lol. T If is was all spelled out, we be moaning about no surprises, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This looks like a classic case of cold chasing moisture, which moisture almost always wins in the South. We might see some snow in the highest elevations of the NC mountains but a cold rain everywhere else if the GFS depiction is correct man u get a perfect track with the low pressure and there is no cold air source close by, now watch when the storm is gone we will get some cold air in with no moisture. what is wrong with us always having the same scenario? VERY FRUSTRATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You're right, but this is such a hard conversation to have in generalities because as is often the case, there is so much uniqueness to each storm. In most cases, I want to see a good cold air source and a good cold air feed. A marginal air mass can produce if everything falls into place just right with the evolution and track of a storm. But quite often, you deal with boundary layer issues like you mentioned or it's more of an isolated event as opposed to a wide spread storm. Without that good cold air feed into a storm, you usually have to thread a smaller needle with a bigger string in the dark using only one hand. True, true. I just wanted to say that it's not impossible. That's all. Latest GFS is running and Thursday night still looks too warm. Here's hour 66 showing a nice placement of an LP along the coast with the expected moisture transport back up into the WNC. But, while the damming signature is present, the temps don't get quite low enough for anything frozen at the surface, even if the upper levels were okay (which they're not either). A lot would need to change to make this a wintry to event, but there's no harm in continuing to curiously follow the situation. It's a shame that we have such an excellent LP track only to have it wasted with too warm temperatures. The HP placement looks nice, but we can't do well with that LP up in the Ohio Valley, unfortunately. WAA will be in full force in the upper levels. Looks like rain all the way up I-95 until you get to Boston, verbatim (snow inland, though). Looks like a very fun event on tap in Boston, though, I must say... But, yes, the Gulf Low takes a nice track, though it might be a little too far inland for my personal tastes, in any case. What do we consider this, anyways? It's not really a conventional Miller B, but it's not so much a Miller A with the 1010 mb LP over Ohio, either. It appears that the Ohio Valley LP transfers its energy to the coast up in PA, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 12 GEFS, Looking very nice has we head to mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 ^ I'm glad they are maintaining their consistency. I hope some of the other model suites start to follow suit soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 12z Euro at 192 actually pretty close and prob yet another snow for western TN. 1000 mb low just east of CAE. If we could get some HP to pop or gain some more suppression. Anything beats 360 GFS maps as far as being interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 12z Euro at 192 actually pretty close and prob yet another snow for western TN. 1000 mb low just east of CAE. If we could get some HP to pop or gain some more suppression. Anything beats 360 GFS maps as far as being interesting. Yup and 992mb off coast of southern NJ. Lots of precip in NC, but alas rain. This one pounds DC pretty well too from what I saw on twitter, 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yup and 992mb off coast of southern NJ. Lots of precip in NC, but alas rain. This one pounds DC pretty well too from what I saw on twitter, 4-8" Still tons of time for this one to change...in either direction. I'd sure like to see it more suppressed at this range than inland already. Seems like they always trend more inland as we get closer. Maybe that's true or maybe that's just my LR Snowstorm PTSD. In any event, it's nice that this storm continues to show up around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 And of course, another day passes and the Euro, wall to wall pretty much keeps the cold out of the South and Southeast. No sign of any cold pattern setting up in our region on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I take it it lost the double barrel low idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would keep my eye on that time period. Euro has that low originating around the southern tip of Texas/northern NM/far western Gulf region and moving northeast. High looks to be in a great spot at 168 (even though it's relatively weak - 1027). It wouldn't take much for this one to look a lot better. I just wish 168 hour maps were as easy as shooting fish in a barrel and not like finding a needle in a haystack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would keep my eye on that time period. Euro has that low originating around the southern tip of Texas/northern NM/far western Gulf region and moving northeast. High looks to be in a great spot at 168 (even though it's relatively weak - 1027). It wouldn't take much for this one to look a lot better. I just wish 168 hour maps were as easy as shooting fish in a barrel and not like finding a needle in a haystack.I guess the good thing to take aaway is we are not in the bullseye 168 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I take it it lost the double barrel low idea? Looks to me like it sends a low to eastern TN, and a secondary forms around Myrtle Beach.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks to me like it sends a low to eastern TN, and a secondary forms around Myrtle Beach..........that explains that warm nose over the apps. If we lose that low we could be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would think if you took the bias of both the GFS (too progressive) and the EURO (holds too much energy back) it would yield a pretty good result. If you split the difference on the ensembles between the throughing on the Euro (mostly western and central US) and the GFS (troughing further east - almost nationwide) you'd get a trough axis that will yield something for someone in the southeast. Whether that's Arkansas, western TN, parts of AL and MS or areas further east remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would think if you took the bias of both the GFS (too progressive) and the EURO (holds too much energy back) it would yield a pretty good result. If you split the difference on the ensembles between the throughing on the Euro (mostly western and central US) and the GFS (troughing further east - almost nationwide) you'd get a trough axis that will yield something for someone in the southeast. Whether that's Arkansas, western TN, parts of AL and MS or areas further east remains to be seen.the gfs was flat and just a cold front. The cmc was a little more robust and might have phased past hout 180. The euro is the most amped. As usual. Lets see what the ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The NE is going to get hammered later this week, not that I really care.....but the "one to watch" will be next week for the SE. A lot has to come together, but I'm not discounting yet. LR, the means looks promising with good blocking setting up. The GFS is pretty strong with the +PNA while the EURO, not so much...both continue to show an active STJ.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 the gfs was flat and just a cold front. The cmc was a little more robust and might have phased past hout 180. The euro is the most amped. As usual. Lets see what the ensembles show. I really wasn't talking about the operationals with that last post, but the general look of the ensembles. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 parts of the northeast will be building a snowpack over the next week. What impact could this have on our weather. My thinking is that it would primarily act to get the air a little bit colder down here in CAD areas. Essentially no impact to ptypes other than possibly zr and 31 rather than rain and 33. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Still tons of time for this one to change...in either direction. I'd sure like to see it more suppressed at this range than inland already. Seems like they always trend more inland as we get closer. Maybe that's true or maybe that's just my LR Snowstorm PTSD. In any event, it's nice that this storm continues to show up around that time frame. I think the Christmas 2010 snowstorm had it cutting through the app at this period in the LR, so there's hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The weakness of the high is the problem, not the position. Between 168 and 192 it basically disappears. That's going to have to be a much stronger feature for this to have any chance. I would keep my eye on that time period. Euro has that low originating around the southern tip of Texas/northern NM/far western Gulf region and moving northeast. High looks to be in a great spot at 168 (even though it's relatively weak - 1027). It wouldn't take much for this one to look a lot better. I just wish 168 hour maps were as easy as shooting fish in a barrel and not like finding a needle in a haystack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It is going to get wet...may rain itself out with over 2 inches in WNC! Probably more though I bet the HPC will continue to raise the numbers leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 For Thurs-Fri... GSP THERMAL PROFILES AND SURFACE TEMPS CURRENTLY SUPPORT ANALL RAIN EVENT...EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...CAD PROCESSES ANDMECHANICAL LIFTING WILL PUSH TEMPS CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER PARTS OFTHE NC FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN MOUBNTAINS THU NIGHT....SO IT IS NOTTOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN. GFSBUFKIT SOUNDING AT BOONE ALSO INDICATES THAT IT IS NOT OUT OF THEQUESTION FOR SOME SNOW ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS IF IT IS JUST ADEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. RAH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT COLDAIR DAMMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ANDCENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRECEDING THE STORM SYSTEM ON THU. HOWEVER...THIS CAD HIGH WILL NOT HAVE A FEED WITH THE CENTER OF A STRONG (NEAR1040 MB) ARCTIC HIGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...AND AS SUCH...THEREREMAINS LITTLE CONCERN OVER PRECIPITATION TYPE UNLESS THE SOUTHERNSTREAM WAVE ALOFT IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED BYTHE NWP MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It is going to get wet...may rain itself out with over 2 inches in WNC! Probably more though I bet the HPC will continue to raise the numbers leading up to it. 2 inches is like sprinkles compared to what we have had so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 2 inches is like sprinkles compared to what we have had so far this winter. Reason I think they will up it...its pointing directly at us. Give it some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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