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Central PA - February 2013


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Im confused what were talking about lol.

Do you mean the last few posts? I was posting about what 12z Euro is showing for tomorrow for the Harrisburg area.  Both NAM and Euro have just over .10" QPF as a shortwave swings around the trough that will move in for the weekend.  I just think that temps will be too warm for any accumulating snow if some should reach the ground with highs in the mid to upper 40s around here as well as the speed and not very organized nature. 

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Latest SREF is hardcore trolling, 6" for LNS, 5" for MDT

Well that explains that, holy crap. There are a couple rogue members in the ensemble that think this is gonna be Feb 5-6th + Feb 10, 2010 haha. SREF plumes have 3 members over 25" and 1 member in the low 40s at MDT. Thats in inches of snow btw haha...I thought for sure I had something else selected. Eliminating these insane members brings the mean between the rest down to 2 inches, and that's leaving in the 4th highest member that has nearly a foot. The rest of the ensemble members are 5" and under yielding a 1 inch mean.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130214&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=HAR&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=39.78084137704927&mLON=-75.94615615234375&mTYP=roadmap

Here are the Ewall probs at hour 57:

post-1507-0-59781800-1360875427_thumb.gi

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pro tip: setting your expectations low avoids disappointment

I have been lurking for years so I get it.....this is one that stands out to me. I'll be disappointed most likely. But a lot of waffling right now where our area could see nothing to a full fledge blizzard 24-36 hours from now.

I like our chances

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pro tip: setting your expectations low avoids disappointment

The way I look at it is....every inch we pick up, adds to our yearly total. We have had a couple good storms this season.

Now if we can get you Boyz's south of us some snow it will be a good winter!!!

Mag & Jamie seem to be holding their own this winter.

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New NAM and latest HRRR runs do show a decent precip hit just south of Harrisburg, more in the York/Lancaster region and south.  But, I believe it will be too warm for any accumulating snow.  I even just saw JB post about 6" snow north of BWI... they are currently at 41 at 9am so I am not buying it... I just think we see a nice warm up early today with temps quickly climbing into the mid to upper 40s before the clouds roll in.  The increase in clouds after the early warm up will trap enough warmth for a slow cooling... Dew point temperatures are already 30/32 across the region so while we will not lose much precip to evaporational cooling as we did the other day, it will not help cool us enough for accumulations.  AOO/JST/UNV region most likely to see an inch or so if they can get enough moisture to develop something there but not so much where the heart of the precip will be in southeastern PA.

post-285-0-14239900-1360939129_thumb.png

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Very handsome rainstorm for Tuesday..lol. A cinder cleaner if you will. We ve had like 2 inches of snow in last few weeks but more cinders than I can remember.

Here it's a mix. Was a mix for you except for 06 GFS. Euro shows mostly frozen for IPT. Not much precip though. .2 on the Euro.

 

Not much of a rainstorm on those. Why do you think you are getting a heavy rainstorm?

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