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Central PA - February 2013


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congrats 2001kx.....good for you bud. should be a great few days for you Jamie and our Altoona/Johnstown friends.

thanks, I missed most of it laying around on the couch trying to beat my addiction to nicotine.

i caved after about 12hrs. :axe::bag:

 

was suprised we got this much...was told the roads were horrible and still dont look the best as of now.

post-803-0-81641900-1359852201_thumb.jpg

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We've had steady light snow now for two hours with NOTHING showing on radar. Interesting little clipper...

 

All the radars are overshooting the low clouds/snowfall associated with this system in your area. The radar beam at the lowest 0.5 degree angle is at 9-10 thousand feet on the BGM, CCX, and DIX radars. 

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New Euro fires off a developing coastal low straight from the Gulf up the coastline into southern New England this coming Friday via the southern stream. The northern stream wave that has been well advertised on all models and also present in this same timeframe acts to make the airmass marginal prior to the developing wave. Low doesn't really get it's act together until past us since it looks like a late phaser.. keeping best precip northeast. Seemed like a rain-snow or marginal snow looking event depending on where in PA you are. Not going to hold my breath on this solution at this juncture, Euro's the only thing that has southern stream input with this late week system at the moment. 

 

With that said, I would keep an eye perhaps starting with this end of week timeframe or shortly thereafter on increased activity from the southern stream with the MJO propagation working thru phases 8 and 1. I have reasonable confidence that getting into the mid month time frame could be more active storm wise, the question is whether the pattern will be favorable for us to get snow out of it. 

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All the radars are overshooting the low clouds/snowfall associated with this system in your area. The radar beam at the lowest 0.5 degree angle is at 9-10 thousand feet on the BGM, CCX, and DIX radars. 

 

 

I kind of thought it wa something like that. It was interesting that our heaviest snow fell from those lower clouds later on in the evening. I got on the computer when we had between a quarter and half inch on the ground. Checked radar from time to time and it showed it wasn't snowing, so I didn't think much of it until about 9:30 when I put the dog out. Much to my surprise, it was snowing fairly hard and we were up to 1.25/1.50 inches.

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With that said, I would keep an eye perhaps starting with this end of week timeframe or shortly thereafter on increased activity from the southern stream with the MJO propagation working thru phases 8 and 1. I have reasonable confidence that getting into the mid month time frame could be more active storm wise, the question is whether the pattern will be favorable for us to get snow out of it. 

 

 

It's beyond a lot of the models timeframe, but what does the period AFTER the 16th look like? I start a new job as a regional OTR truck driver on the 18th, and I'm hoping that first week is snow free as I learn the routes, the truck's handling characteristics, and the company's policies.

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I kind of thought it wa something like that. It was interesting that our heaviest snow fell from those lower clouds later on in the evening. I got on the computer when we had between a quarter and half inch on the ground. Checked radar from time to time and it showed it wasn't snowing, so I didn't think much of it until about 9:30 when I put the dog out. Much to my surprise, it was snowing fairly hard and we were up to 1.25/1.50 inches.

 

 

Had the exact same thing happen here. 0.5º beam is about 10k AGL here, from any of the 3 "nearby" sites. Radar was clear overhead all day, yet we managed about an inch.

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I kind of thought it wa something like that. It was interesting that our heaviest snow fell from those lower clouds later on in the evening. I got on the computer when we had between a quarter and half inch on the ground. Checked radar from time to time and it showed it wasn't snowing, so I didn't think much of it until about 9:30 when I put the dog out. Much to my surprise, it was snowing fairly hard and we were up to 1.25/1.50 inches.

 

 

Had the exact same thing happen here. 0.5º beam is about 10k AGL here, from any of the 3 "nearby" sites. Radar was clear overhead all day, yet we managed about an inch.

 

I wonder if composite radar would be better in that case?

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It's beyond a lot of the models timeframe, but what does the period AFTER the 16th look like? I start a new job as a regional OTR truck driver on the 18th, and I'm hoping that first week is snow free as I learn the routes, the truck's handling characteristics, and the company's policies.

 

Anyone?

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It's beyond a lot of the models timeframe, but what does the period AFTER the 16th look like? I start a new job as a regional OTR truck driver on the 18th, and I'm hoping that first week is snow free as I learn the routes, the truck's handling characteristics, and the company's policies.

 

That's been the million dollar question as per discussions in other parts of the forum. There has been a ton of longer range model uncertainty with the Euro weeklies looking warm as of late for the 2nd half of the month and CFS monthly staying quite cold. Been hearing that the overnight Euro ensembles (d10-d15) looked a lot more better (or worse in your case haha) than they have been with respect to keeping a more wintry pattern. Basically what I can say with confidence is don't expect winter to be over with mid month. I'm never really a fan of calling things over with weeks prior to the time frame in question.. especially given the variety of mixed signals at this point. We will probably have a better idea of things going forward once we get to this time next week. 

 

In the nearer term, I see the 12z GFS has the Euro's southern stream wave from last night for this coming Friday. Unlike the 0z Euro however, the streams and their associated waves stay separate.. for now. Given the progressive pattern that has been prevalent this winter, that seems like a reasonable solution. Could be something to keep an eye on though. The blind squirrel finds the nut every once in awhile.

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 Been hearing that the overnight Euro ensembles (d10-d15) looked a lot more better (or worse in your case haha) than they have been with respect to keeping a more wintry pattern.

 

Thanks for the reply. I'm sure that this is music to most folks' ears, but obviously not mine...lol. That being said it's a long way off and nothing is certain either way. I just appreciate your thoughts on it.

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Thanks for the reply. I'm sure that this is music to most folks' ears, but obviously not mine...lol. That being said it's a long way off and nothing is certain either way. I just appreciate your thoughts on it.

Sorry it's during this time with all the uncertainty due to the complex pattern. I can see things going from looking a-okay to not so good or vice versa in an instant on the models.

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