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Central PA - February 2013


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Yea the overnight models certainly weren't supportive of the prospect of much more than the general 1-2 inches. Just saw the 03z SREFs.. has a zone of much weaker probs for 1+ for the Sus Valley in between good probs for the Laurels and in Philly/NJ/NYC where the storm hits the coast and ramps up a bit. The Philly/NJ/NYC area had half decent probs for 4+ as well. 

 

New HPC probs kept a slight 10% chance of 4+ across the PA southern tier, but I'm def starting to think anything approaching that is gonna wait til further east..if at all. When I mentioned the thin stripe of 3-4", I was talking a pretty small area where we could potentially have a heavier band set up later in the storm (during the night time) that maybe thumps some snow down. The most likely place of course being near or a bit above the Mason Dixon where the best precip is still progged but still far enough north that heavier precip would yield accumulating snow. Still something I'd watch for, but the aforementioned temp issues along with mainly lackluster precip rates look to put a damper on it. Either way this threat def not what it looked like a couple days ago when it was looking to be a widespread advisory type event with the potential for warning amounts within that. 

 

Beyond this event it looks like our weekend threat is just not going to have time to materialize for anyone as the deep trough keeps on progressing east. Next storm chance starting to center more on next Tuesday with GFS/Euro having a lakes low currently. Euro kind of has the look of an attempted miller B with it..but the finer details are trivial at this juncture of course. 

The one after that on the 23rd looks more impressive to my amateur eyes. 

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Continuing the theme of low temps. LNS is around 5 degrees colder than moldeled by the NAM and GFS. At my location it is closer to 8 degrees colder. I guess we will see if temps rebound to their modeled highs. It seems to me that just a few degrees in this type of situation can make a difference.

MOS has a horrible time around here with nights where skies are clear and winds are calm... more often than not it gets colder then rebounds during the day

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MOS has a horrible time around here with nights where skies are clear and winds are calm... more often than not it gets colder then rebounds during the day

 

Indeed it does. NAM & GFS MOS guidance both had a low of 30 last night for MDT. The observed low was 23/24. Similar numbers below MOS all across the region as well. I think I posted last night about a best-case scenario for us. One where we radiationally cooled more efficiently than expected (which we apparently did), and where clouds would roll in around day break. That would be the ideal set up for colder air. It seems as though that thinking wasn't too far off from what is happening. It's 30 in MDT and below freezing over the entire Susquehanna Valley as of 9am. MOS has temps in the mid 30's by 10a so we'll see if there'll be a rebound on the next update, but looking outside it won't be the sunshine heating us up as it has clouded over here in Lancaster. 

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Yea, at least spring can bring interesting severe wx...

 

Yeah. Just like last year. Oh wait...

 

This winter, as lame as it may have been for some, has brought just enough cold and snow to break the almost 2 year long span of boring nonsensical weather that made Harrisburg, PA seem more like San Jose, California.

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Yeah. Just like last year. Oh wait...

 

This winter, as lame as it may have been for some, has brought just enough cold and snow to break the almost 2 year long span of boring nonsensical weather that made Harrisburg, PA seem more like San Jose, California.

2012 was very boring but 2011 really wasn't. 

 

In 2011, we had: 

 

- higher than average amount of tornadoes. 

- Insanely hot July

- an epic flood

- September and annual all-time rainfall record for Harrisburg

- October's record snowstorm 

 

Then after October's snow, time to snooze. It got so bad CTP was posting about updated flood crests from old floods in their site's features/event page: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/

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Mesoscale banding setting up a little farther northwest than I would have expected into far southern Indiana and Ohio.  If it can survive long enough, it could drop a quick 1-2" a little farther north into Clearfield and Centre. 

Glad you mentioned that. I was thinking I had a radar hallucination. It really doesn't look like a miss but I guess it still will. 

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Lol 4 to 6 in philly doesnt give me confidence in that model.

HRRR does change from hour to hour sometimes but it nailed the snowfall for central and southeast PA from "Nemo" Friday morning showing we were not going to receive anything from the coastal low but from the weakening low that was crossing the Great Lakes

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