Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 looks like storm earns cat 3 ranking respectively http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/20130207-20130210-4.35-p.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 NAM is kinda south. SREFS come north.. I am already annoyed with this system. Either we will get nothing or a dumping of 6" Look at the differences only 27hrs out. Pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nam is south...or develops late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hahaha that spread is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 models are insane with this small albeit potent system. some north some south, good luck those that forecast this stuff. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'll enjoy my 1" of snow that melts on pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'll enjoy my 1" of snow that melts on pavement. spring snow! come on SCPA we need one, one of these days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Serious question I don't have time to look, my mother inlaw just passed away and their talking about a Sunday / Monday service. What's the story with weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'll enjoy my 1" of snow that melts on pavement. I wouldn't be surprised to see 0" or 6" at this point. Anything seems possible right now. All will depend on banding. SREF probs for 4"+ now like 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Serious question I don't have time to look, my mother inlaw just passed away and their talking about a Sunday / Monday service. What's the story with weekend storm? Sorry for your loss. Probably nothing for the PD3 fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sorry for your loss man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well....I'm certainly glad to see my recruited red-tagger, Jeff Jumper has joined our fray. Welcome to him. I look forward very much to his participation in the weeks and months to come. When I met Jeff 2 weeks ago I didn't know that another local TV met, Matt Moore, had also recently joined us. How fantastic is that? By the way, they're both easy to remember....one is MM, the other, JJ.....lol. My own feeling on tomorrow's event is that I think it will end up surprising us on the high side. I have no scientific reasoning whatsoever behind this comment. It's just that we've been short-changed so many times this winter that the odds have to favor some event that is expected to underperform, be our surprise. So, I like Zach's 3-6 forecast. No, I'm not expecting six at all. But 4"....maybe, yes. It'll be the lovely wet snow with the big huge flakes that sticks to everything. I think it will begin sticking to the streets pretty quickly after dark...and wet snow can accumulate pretty quickly even though it also compacts pretty quicly afterwards as well. So, let's see how this plays out. Down to 29.3 degrees, dew point 23, clear skies and calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Serious question I don't have time to look, my mother inlaw just passed away and their talking about a Sunday / Monday service. What's the story with weekend storm? Sorry about your loss, Sauss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 thoughts and prayers are with you and the family Sauss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 thoughts and prayers are with you and the family Sauss. I second this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Serious question I don't have time to look, my mother inlaw just passed away and their talking about a Sunday / Monday service. What's the story with weekend storm? Sorry for your loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well....I'm certainly glad to see my recruited red-tagger, Jeff Jumper has joined our fray. Welcome to him. I look forward very much to his participation in the weeks and months to come. When I met Jeff 2 weeks ago I didn't know that another local TV met, Matt Moore, had also recently joined us. How fantastic is that? By the way, they're both easy to remember....one is MM, the other, JJ.....lol. My own feeling on tomorrow's event is that I think it will end up surprising us on the high side. I have no scientific reasoning whatsoever behind this comment. It's just that we've been short-changed so many times this winter that the odds have to favor some event that is expected to underperform, be our surprise. So, I like Zach's 3-6 forecast. No, I'm not expecting six at all. But 4"....maybe, yes. It'll be the lovely wet snow with the big huge flakes that sticks to everything. I think it will begin sticking to the streets pretty quickly after dark...and wet snow can accumulate pretty quickly even though it also compacts pretty quicly afterwards as well. So, let's see how this plays out. Down to 29.3 degrees, dew point 23, clear skies and calm winds. I'm glad to see some more red taggers in our forum as well. If PSU8315 and JSTwx were still posting we'd have all the major affiliates (CBS, NBC, and FOX) in here haha. Hopefully we can hold off the majority of precip from starting until later afternoon or around dark. If it comes early, it will definitely have trouble accumulating (or perhaps even starting as rain) given the surface temps unless there's some heavier rates involved. I'm not going to use the sun as an excuse until like.. beginning of March, but it is starting to get late enough in the winter that in these marginal temp situations with lighter precip there is a few hours (late morning/early afternoon) where the sun can make it's presence known. It does seem like most precip comes after dark though, so hopefully we won't waste too much of what we get. Right now i'm thinking this is a general 1-2" underneath I-80 for most folks with a thin stripe of 3-4 straddling near the Mason-Dixon Line where the heavier precip has been residing on models. Hopin for a late trend to the wetter side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Serious question I don't have time to look, my mother inlaw just passed away and their talking about a Sunday / Monday service. What's the story with weekend storm? Sorry to hear about your loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hey!! When the new guy come on board? It is an amazing sight seeing all the red taggers in our forum! Welcome to our humble CPA thread, hopefully you enjoy your stay with our great weather community. We are a friendly little bunch......Sorry for the bad news Sauss, hope all goes well to you and your family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Thoughts and prayers to you and family, sauss. Kind of a tough week on the homestead, one of the HUB dining staffers I work with lost his uncle last week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Was digging through my photobucket earlier and found this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I hope you don't mind me posting in here, I live right along the Mason Dixon line. This storm is hard to pin down being such a small vort in the flow. I do not think the euro is right, but my worry is that the NAM and RGEM coming in dryer and kind of disorganized until late means we might end up with a compromise between the euro and the GFS/NAM runs of the last few days. That won't work for us, we need a dynamic system or its going to be 35 with light rain/snow mix and no accumulations. This has to be a thump. Hope the GFS comes in wet and puts some of my fear to rest but I have always felt nervous having the euro staring us down like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 One other interesting note, the SREF has been weird in that some of the NMM runs that usually are dry have been running wet, and some of the usually wet runs are dry. Just weird how the models are having such a hard time getting a handle on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Feel free to post here, it's not like there's a whole lot of difference between the line and the LSV or south-central counties. It's similar to say, somebody being on here from Chambersburg and somebody coming in to post from Hagerstown, the only real difference is the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm glad to see some more red taggers in our forum as well. If PSU8315 and JSTwx were still posting we'd have all the major affiliates (CBS, NBC, and FOX) in here haha. Hopefully we can hold off the majority of precip from starting until later afternoon or around dark. If it comes early, it will definitely have trouble accumulating (or perhaps even starting as rain) given the surface temps unless there's some heavier rates involved. I'm not going to use the sun as an excuse until like.. beginning of March, but it is starting to get late enough in the winter that in these marginal temp situations with lighter precip there is a few hours (late morning/early afternoon) where the sun can make it's presence known. It does seem like most precip comes after dark though, so hopefully we won't waste too much of what we get. Right now i'm thinking this is a general 1-2" underneath I-80 for most folks with a thin stripe of 3-4 straddling near the Mason-Dixon Line where the heavier precip has been residing on models. Hopin for a late trend to the wetter side. Ah yes, unfortunately there's a double-edged sword with a northward jog in any model solution. You get closer to the surface low and you'll also be closer to the warmer air profiles. Sure, you'll have more precip, but if it's not heavy enough to dynamically cool, then it's not going to amount to much more than some slop. I bumped my ranges about 20-30 miles to the south tonight to account for the Euro/CMC and the possibilities of it being drier than modeled. These pesky little shorts can sometimes cause model headaches because they are such subtle little systems. I'm unsure about 3-4 amounts, but I respect your call. For the sake of snow lovers, I'd love to be wrong and someone gets a 5'er, but I just can't see it with marginal BL temps and not a very robust system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 00z GFS trends drier as well. Although virtually the same low pressure track. Looks a smidge colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol this storm is pretty annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Jon, sorry for your loss. It looks like those days will be without snow. If I can do anything, please let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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