Santa Clause Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gfs is pretty good...warm at surface for a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS looks pretty wet, .5" total for some near the MD line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gfs is pretty good...warm at surface for a bit though. Looking at forecast soundings..it's colder than the NAM...looks like precip changes over a bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looking at forecast soundings..it's colder than the NAM...looks like precip changes over a bit earlier. Confirmed. By 7pm it's snowing, but it's that heavy heavy wet stuff. Low ratios to start, obviously. This is just south of MDT, by the way (closest grid point to MDT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Good deal! Lsv should get some okay snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 09z SREF plume reduced LNS snow to around an inch and a half I spoke with a met one of the Emergency Response Specialist Mets from Sterling during the last event about the SREF. He informed me that SREFs have a tendency to waffle 12 - 24 hours before events and should be used with caution. The exact cause is unknown at this time, but there is active research ongoing to find a fix for the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I spoke with a met one of the Emergency Response Specialist Mets from Sterling during the last event about the SREF. He informed me that SREFs have a tendency to waffle 12 - 24 hours before events and should be used with caution. The exact cause is unknown at this time, but there is active research ongoing to find a fix for the issue. thanks for the heads up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I spoke with a met one of the Emergency Response Specialist Mets from Sterling during the last event about the SREF. He informed me that SREFs have a tendency to waffle 12 - 24 hours before events and should be used with caution. The exact cause is unknown at this time, but there is active research ongoing to find a fix for the issue. Good to know man. Thanks for the heads up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 By the way, I do find it interesting how much people take to heart when a forecast goes wrong or if the models don't show a particular behavior. I think your post Matt was excellent and truly people need to realize that you guys and gals only review models (which themselves are imperfect) and interpret the data. That is why I find weather so fascinating, because it is something we can't control. And although we have models that try to interpret all those moving parts that make up our atmosphere, they are only models and the weather will do what the weather will do. It does not always act in a predictable manner, but if it did, what would be fascinating about it? Kudos to the efforts of all the weather forecasters out there. And now back to our original programming - so being in Litiz just north of Lancaster, I would be most happy with a 2-4 inch event at this pt. I would LOVE to see a monster storm and I would agree that this weekend would be such a waste of great potential if nothing materializes, but we can always hope. Thank you! Don't get me wrong, I love being on the side of weather where I get to communicate with the public on a less technical platform, but that also means there are expectations and A LOT of assumptions made by those viewers in terms of a forecast. Believe it or not, many people out there believe the groundhog's forecast is legitimate and not just a fun thing. So when it snows, they cry foul. Its tough walking that line between being super technical and accurate like your schooling teaches and then simplifying it for folks at home. Tough, but I wouldn't have it any other way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 New GFS comes in farther N and juicier...much like the NAM did (but less QPF, which makes more sense)...more in line with my current thinking as of now. Here's the surface reflection as of 03z... Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 10.43.29 AM.png And total precip after the storm has moved out... Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 10.42.09 AM.png This was a good move by the GFS if you like snow. Still waiting on the forecast soundings from twisterdata to see when the changeover to snow occurs Less qpf? Gfs has me in nearly .5" while nam is .15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Less qpf? Gfs has me in nearly .5" while nam is .15" I meant as a whole not for particular locations. The system itself was producing less QPF overall via the GFS, but pushed moderate precip farther NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ok here is my true first call map. Final call early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ok here is my true first call map. Final call early tomorrow morning. HWPCsnow.gif Graphics look real nice! Well Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ok here is my true first call map. Final call early tomorrow morning. HWPCsnow.gif Looks pretty reasonable to me, solid advisory event for the southern tier of C PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12Z Euro is 0" qpf north of DC. Either is blew this storm big time or we are all in for major let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12Z Euro is 0" qpf north of DC. Either is blew this storm big time or we are all in for major let down. throw it out then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO *very* dry this run. Gives serious pause for those forecasting, especially how it's been consistent with the past two events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO *very* dry this run. Gives serious pause for those forecasting, especially how it's been consistent with the past two events. It's been extremely inconsistent with this event though ... not saying it's wrong but the Euro has not been it's usual self this week on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 well if the 18z runs trend toward the euro then that would cap off a very disappointing winter. Any updates on the weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's Matt Moore, not Joe, sorry to disappoint But I've worked that shift numerous times and it starts at 430a and goes to 7a with the show then till 9am with the live cut-ins for the Today show. We have to report for that shift at about 1230-1am. welcome to all our new members. I just saw yesterday that fox43 will be starting their morning news at 4am. Joe, what time do you start work? sorry just getting caught up with the posts... to fix the confusion... Jeff was responding to Eskimo Joe as in "I am, Joe" ... his name is Jeff Jumper... Welcome Jeff and Matt 12z Euro looks like the low becomes fully organized later than the GFS/NAM, though have not see upper air maps for Euro yet to support that thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 well if the 18z runs trend toward the euro then that would cap off a very disappointing winter. Any updates on the weekend storm? Yes. GFS gets precip within 1000 miles of us. We just need a small trend...though the Nogaps looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is my opinion, so take it for what it's worth, but should we not see a widespread plowable snowfall within the next two weeks, I'd stick a fork in this winter. La Nada years seem to end quickly come March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just thinking about this but when was the last Winter Storm Warning / Watch posted by NWS for Dauphin and Lebanon Counties??? it has to be 2 years now, right? Just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just thinking about this but when was the last Winter Storm Warning / Watch posted by NWS for Dauphin and Lebanon Counties??? it has to be 2 years now, right? Just insane. October 29, 2011 I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just thinking about this but when was the last Winter Storm Warning / Watch posted by NWS for Dauphin and Lebanon Counties??? it has to be 2 years now, right? Just insane. did n't they have one for the October 2011 storm? or was that an Advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I am thinking about living in CT. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 October 29, 2011 I believe did n't they have one for the October 2011 storm? or was that an Advisory? you and i keep posting the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 did n't they have one for the October 2011 storm? or was that an Advisory? October 2011 could be right wow.....just plain incredible if thats the case. Honestly, this period of time without accumulating significant snow is plain insane. Growing up was so different than today's winter weather. Let's hope something changes for the weekend we are so overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is my opinion, so take it for what it's worth, but should we not see a widespread plowable snowfall within the next two weeks, I'd stick a fork in this winter. La Nada years seem to end quickly come March. I think for south of UNV, sure. HM posted this in the Philly subforum when he said that the pattern would go favorable again after it goes warm around Feb 20-25, but it would be when most of us don't want it: Well I was referring to the days around the beginning of spring. Let me say this: the AO doesn't look anything like last year and it is quite possible we have a -PNA/AO/NAO as we move into March (the recovering upper stratospheric vortex isn't as fast as last year). This could set up a snowy pattern for the Plains-Lakes-New England, especially if the NAO remains neutral/negative. I'm still leaning against a wall-to-wall blowtorch like 2012, but the WPO signal is certainly threatening one. Honestly, I don't count out plowable snow here until early April. I've been lectured twice in late March/early April on WWBB/Eastern about how I shouldn't expect to see snow and winters over, while snow was accumulating outside. But overall, sure. That's a fair statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I am thinking about living in CT. lol HA!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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